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First 70 of the year

We did hit 70 degrees on Monday. And, we will likely go into the 70s and approach the record of 78 this afternoon. On Wednesday a cold front will be approaching. Right now it appears it will pass through around 5 PM. This would give us all day to set a record high. Usually, the highest temperatures in a warming trend come just ahead of the cold front. We are in this position Wednesday. So, 80 degrees is possible.

The cold front coming through Thursday will weaken and south winds will return by Friday. The Gulf of Mexico is opening up and we may have enough moisture for thunderstorms Friday night or Saturday. We need the rain as we just had the DRIEST FEBRUARY in Kansas City history. This followed the WARMEST JANUARY in Kansas City history. These are very hard records to break. It is somewhat easy to break a daily record and we do a few times each year. But monthly records are rare since our records go back into the 1800s. Wow!

Click map to enlarge

Above, you can see the latest GFS model forecast for total precipiation this weekend. Notice that we are in a very light area. Hopefully this will change, otherwise it could be another week before our next significant chance

Have a great day! It is already 71 degrees at 1 PM. The high clouds may keep it below the record of 78 but it could be close.

Gary

Posted by at 10:11 AM | Comments (6)

Here We Go!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 52
LOW: 25

We are well on our way into a BIG warming trend! We are still looking good for highs in the 70s Monday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will be building in... keeping us WARM and DRY. You can see it on the NAM's 500mb forecast (18,000 ft) for Tuesday:

Click to enlarge

A cold front is forecast to come through Wednesday afternoon... that will drop temperatures for the second half of the week. Although it won't drop them MUCH... highs will still be in the 50s.

As for next weekend's storm... it is still showing up... but there is not a lot of confidence on WHERE the rain will fall at this time. I put in a 20% chance for Saturday into Sunday... we'll see!! We really do need it, that's for sure!

Enjoy the warm weather!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:21 PM | Comments (2)

Warming

TODAY'S NUMBERS
HIGH: 49 (at midnight)
LOW: 25

Today really was a beautiful day... even if we were on the cool side. Plenty of sunshine and bright blue skies! Mags and I took a walk in the park... she just loves being out in the sun! :) Today was brought to you by the letter H... as in high pressure! You can see it on this evening's surface map:

Click to enlarge

Now get ready for a BIG WARM UP as we head into the next few days! We will see temperatures in the lower 50s for Sunday... and then we really get out of control for Monday through Wednesday. Take a look at our forecasted 850mb temps:

Click to enlarge

Highs look to be in the lower 70s Monday... upper 70s to near 80 on Tuesday... and STILL in the 70s for Wednesday. A little spring fever for you!! But remember in yesterday's blog... the fires that were getting out of control across the area? As our southerly winds pick up and temperatures rise... the fire danger will again increase this week. Please be careful... it has been SO dry.... a RECORD DRY FEBRUARY is in the works! The previous record was only .07" of rain back in 1920. As we stand now, we are STILL sitting at .04". It does look like we will set the new record. THIS comes after a record WARM January! Talk about extreme weather!!

Anyway... a cold front will sweep through on Wednesday, dropping temperatures for the second half of the week. And there is still a slight chance of some rain showing up for next weekend... we will continue to monitor it. We really do need it!

Have a great evening,
Jamie

Posted by at 5:04 PM | Comments (2)

Warmer and dry & Afternoon fire update!

It is FRIDAY! A lot is going on with the weather pattern. First of all we are just cycling through the EXACT same pattern that set up between October 10th and November 10th. La Nina started and perhaps ended during the winter and, as expected according to my theory, had almost no obvious impact on the pattern. I still believe that La Nina, El Nino, PDO, MJO, and other ocean temperature anomalies and oscillations may influence the pattern and likely do, but the pattern is created and controlled by something much bigger that has yet to be discovered. I really believe this, but this is just part of my theory. My weather pattern theory is likely a signficant discovery, but I still have no idea what causes it. It is interesting that La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific waters, did likely begin, but the latest data has it switching back to neutral conditions or a warming, which is El Nino. Either way it only influences the pattern, it doesn't change or create anything, at least not by my observations over the past 20 years.

Now, let's look ahead to the next few days. The part of the pattern and cycle that brought us the warmest January ever is now arriving. With this part of the pattern we had many small storm systems that came through dry with big pressure changes at the surface. And, there were two fairly significant storm systems that occurred and I believe they will be repeating during the next month or so before the cold part of our pattern returns sometime in April. So, it will rain in March but will it be enough? I hope so because with these warmer temperatures will come a high fire danger amongst other problems, but at the same time it will feel pretty good.

Below is the surface map forecasted by the overnight GFS model. It has support from every other computer model I looked at so confidence is high. Notice the surface low over South Dakota. This will place us in a very warm south flow. If there is no low overcast, which is possible, but unlikely, then we may make a run at 80 degrees Tuesday. A cold front would move through by Wednesday. Our forecast has been 30 degrees warmer than other forecasts, but I am certain that we will be quite close to the 74 we have forecasted for next Tuesday.


Click map to enlarge

Now, look below again. This map shows the upper level flow for next Friday night. A deep trough is likely to drop into the southwest and then kick out into the plains. Copious amounts of low level moisture would be forced up into our region if the trough deepens to our west like it is showing. Again, there is support from just about every other computer model out there. But, will everything come together for rain next weekend? It will, but will it be here? We will just have to wait and see, but the GFS 240 hour 60 hour precipitation shows a lot of rain. I hope so, we need it. More later. Have a great weekend.
Gary

Click map to enlarge

*************************************************************************
Hi there, it's Jamie writing... I just wanted to update you on the FIRE situation. WARM, WINDY and DRY conditions are causing problems today!!

Also... I am doing a story on how warm/dry it's been... who's benefiting... who's suffering. It is supposed to air during our 5pm news. It's pretty interesting... try to catch it if you can! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 6:55 AM | Comments (1)

March Outlook & Crop Concerns

You have, likely read much about Gary's weather pattern theory in our blog. I have worked with Gary for 13 years, and I for one believe in it. The cold spell has come and gone, and we seem to be heading back towards the warmer part of the pattern, which produced the warmest January on record. This is not to say March will have its cold days, but overall we are seeing clear indications of a warmer than average month. We also will likely have storm systems tracking across the Plains, just as they did in January. However, they moved too fast and did not pick up Gulf moisture in time. So, all they did was produce wind & some clouds. This may continue in March. However, if one of these storms can slow down and pick up some moisture we could have a beneficial wet storm. Right now we are around 10 days away from the potential for a good soaking.

As we go into March we will need more and more moisture per week to sustain average rainfall. We average .33" of rain per week in February, while in March that jumps to .61". We are on the northern edge of a major drought that has its grip on Oklahoma and Texas. 91% of the hard red winter wheat crop in Oklahoma and Texas is in very poor to poor condition. If those states do not get much rain during the next 2-3 weeks it will be a major crop disaster. Kansas is not in bad shape yet, but rain is needed ASAP.

So, if it does not rain soon, watch the prices go up on cracker and cookies.

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 6:03 PM | Comments (4)

Realistic chances of a drought

This morning I did an extensive analysis of the pattern and although it still looks fairly dry overall, I see the potential for a few wet storm systems as we move into March. The first half of March will be tested well. The jet stream is likely going to dip south into the southwest part of the nation during the first week of March. Remember, the jet stream reaches peak strength in January and February before a steady weakening of the energy develops as we move into March. This weakening continues until the weakest phase of the jet stream arrives during the summer. The jet stream is actually caused by temperature contrasts. The stronger the temperature contrast........the stronger the jet stream. This is why it is at its strongest right now, and why it is at its weakest during the summer when it is warm over most of the USA. This is when the jet lifts north into Canada.

I mention all of this because the same weather pattern that we have been in will continue, but with a weaker jet stream, storm systems will slow down. Now, a slower storm moving into the southwestern United States will have the potential to bring us some significant amounts of rain or snow in March. I see some potential for this during the first half of March, and then again near the end of March. So, we will be testing the developing drought. A couple of good soakings and we will smash the drought as it tries to envelope our region. But, if we miss these opportunities for moisture it will become extremely dry as we move into April. Right now I favor on the side of getting enough moisture to avoid a serious drought. But, only a little bit.

Gary

Posted by at 11:03 AM | Comments (7)

Drought Watch!

Click Above to enlarge

Above, you can see the drought monitor index. Jamie posted it yesterday, and I decided to post it again today. As we continue to cycle through our weather pattern it shows no indication of being able to produce any rain or snow. There should be two or three storm systems that will be capable of some widespread rainfall towards the middle and end of March. But, for the most part it looks dry. We will be issuing a drought watch tonight on our newscasts. We will monitor this for us as we go through the next few weeks.

It is absolutely fascinating looking at this weather pattern. As expected we went through the cold part of the pattern and it lasted about the same length as the December cold spell. It wasn't quite as cold as it was in Decmeber, but it was close. That part of the pattern will be back in April. Watch out for a late hard freeze.

Gary

Posted by at 5:11 PM | Comments (3)

Slowly Rising Temperatures....

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 23
LOW: 7

Last night, clouds moved in pretty quickly. I raised the overnight low to 3 degrees for our 10pm newscast... but we didn't even get that low! Seven degrees was the official low at KCI, with most other locations reporting similar numbers.

So the clouds helped keep temperatures UP overnight... but they also held our highs DOWN today! We only made it to 23...

We will see downslope winds develop this week... that will bring us a warming trend as we go through the next several days.

There is still no big storm in sight... but a front moving through at the end of the week will bring colder temperatures just in time for next weekend. Speaking of NO precipitation in the 7 day forecast... here is a great viewer question:

This sure seems like we are in the same drought pattern we were in a couple of years ago. Is the weather community ready to go so far as to say we are heading into a drought?
Leonard

The answer is... by the looks of things now... we could be heading right in that direction. Here is the latest drought assessment by the Climate Prediction Center:

Click to enlarge

DRY, DRY, DRY!!!

This is a pretty BORING weather pattern... I have had a hard time getting excited for our show tonight. I have no inspiration! Thank goodness NASCAR is still on... we are going on late and I have more time to think! ;)

While there is not much going on for us weather-wise... Mags continues to grow like a weed! She has NOT liked the cold temperatures of the last few days. You know it's time to go inside when your dog does a weird little dance where she picks up her paws... it's pretty funny. Here she is at five months and 50 pounds:

She loves her rawhide!!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:10 PM | Comments (8)

Cold, cold, COLD!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 17
LOW: 4

Today we started off with a dusting to a quarter of an inch of snow in many locations... and IN the single digits... pretty close to zero. Here is a round up of this morning's frigid temperatures:

KCI: 4
DOWNTOWN: 3
OLATHE: 3
ST. JOSEPH: 4
TOPEKA: 3
EMPORIA: 3
LEES SUMMIT: 3
THE PLAZA: 3
LENEXA: 3
MANHATTAN: 2
KNOB NOSTER: 4
LIBERTY: 2
WESTON: 1
LAWRENCE: 4
LEAVENWORTH: 3
CHILLICOTHE: 1
And the winner for the coldest spot this morning.....
KIRKSVILLE: -2

A cold Canadian High is sitting right over the area this evening:

Click to enlarge

That high pressure center brings with it the core of the coldest air! Besides that, the high is providing clear skies and light winds... so tonight temeratures should once again dip to near zero tonight! Some places might even go below zero... if that is the case... the record low of -3 would be in jepordy. We'll see how far we go. If we get some clouds moving in towards dawn... we might not drop that far.

For Sunday, that high will slip to our EAST... allowing southeast winds to develop:

Click to enlarge

But the winds will be light... so while there wll be a little warm up... it won't be much. Highs on Sunday should still be in the lower to middle 20s. We'll also notice more clouds as the day goes on.

And as we go through the next few days... a slow warm-up will continue! We could be in the 50s by the middle part of the week! For you snow-lovers... the window of opportunity is getting smaller.... and smaller.... and smaller....

Jamie

Posted by at 8:23 PM

No snow tonight and weather pattern!

Arctic high pressure is taking stronger control. There are a lot of radar echoes with snow aloft and we may still have a few flurries. I thought that we could get some lift from the right rear quadrant of a jet streak racing off to our northeast tonight, but it just isn't getting its act together. We were only forecasting a dusting to an inch with perhaps 2 inches to the south, but it was likely a bad forecast. So, in some respects this forecast wasn't a good one, but then again it is snowing at midnight, and we are getting a dusting in some spots. This winter, being almost over, will now leave a very bad taste in my mouth.

Now to the weather pattern! We believe that the weather pattern that set up in the fall has continued. I can show you how it is just cycling through, about a 60 to 62 day cycle. This is the cold part of the pattern, but now it is going back into late December and January again. This is likely going to lead to an extremely dry and very boring period of weather. There may be a couple of storm systems in March, and hopefully these few storms will bring us some rainfall. But, any threat of snow is now becoming very unlikely. If you take out that one December snowstorm this would have been the lowest amount of snow in KC history.

Looking ahead through the spring and into summer remember one thing. This colder part of our cycle will repeat two more times. One time in early to mid April, and then again around mid June, just as summer is suppose to begin. We will have some very warm stretches, but then this cold more amplified part of the pattern should bring us some interesting weather as the Gulf of Mexico opens up and brings us some moisture in late spring.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 8:13 PM | Comments (6)

Snow tonight?

There has been a strong trend on the computer models indicating the potential for some snow this Friday night. Below you can see the 06z (midnight) run of the NAM. This is the precipitation forecast for tonight. It produces about .03" near Liberty to .08" near Lawrence, and over 1/10" around Ottawa. This is the liquid amounts. With the airmass being so cold we would likely see 20 to 1 ratios. So, this would translate into about 1/2" in Liberty and over 2" further south.


So, will this happen. We are actually going into the right rear quadrant of a strong jet stream lifting out to our northeast. This places us in a favorable quadrant for lifting the atmosphere. Moisture increasing from the Pacific will combine with this lifting area and this raises my confidence level that it will snow tonight. At the same time, we are sort of on the edge. Any further south on this area of lifting and we could get nothing, but a bit further north we would see 2 or 3 inches, which is what one of our computer models does show. Hopefully this trend will continue as I really want it to be a beautiful white in the morning. It will be close. We will update you on this trend tonight at 5 and 6 PM. And, this morning as the new data comes out.

Posted by at 7:21 AM | Comments (4)

Weather depression

For snow lovers this is a sad time. Everything is there for a major snowstorm. An abundance of moisture. Southwest tropical flow from the Pacific. A very cold air mass in place. And, a storm developing near California. For various reasons the storm over California is forecasted to fall apart and become almost nothing by the time it gets to Kansas. If it holds together at all we will likely see some snow Sunday. And, there is an advance disturbance that could bring us some snow early Saturday. But, the chance is very slim. If this changes I will do a quick blog of excitement. Hopefully I will get to do this.

After this weekend the flow aloft goes through major changes. As we move into the end of February and March there will likely be a few storm systems but the threat of winter weather will slowly decrease. And, winter is my favorite season. Right now Jeff Penner and I are giving the winter an F-----. This is a Fail with 5 minuses. Now, one more snow storm and we will upgrade it to a Fail with no minuses. One more big snowstorm and it could even get a C. Frustration is high, and I haven't had any sleep.

We will be tracking the weekend systems closely. If there is any change, you know we will be all over it. Right now we will stick with a 50% chance of snow Sunday, and a slight chance early Saturday.

Gary

Posted by at 5:42 PM | Comments (5)

Wild temperature swings

The temperatures are a bit out of control the past two days. Yesterday we went from 17 for the low at KCI to a high of 62 degrees. This is a 45 degree warm up. In Salina, KS it went from 14 for a low to 71 degrees which is a 57 degree diurnal range. WOW!

Now, an Arctic front is developing over southern Canada and will begin oozing our way. It is still this year's version of an Arctic front and is very strange. We will get the first surge with a wind shift Wednesday, but the coldest air will be held up until Thursday afternoon or evening when a surface low moves by to our south. There is a chance of some precipitation, mostly very light. And, will it be below freezing? I am not sure at this point. By the time the temperatures start dropping significantly the precipitation may be just about over. This is one thing we will be monitoring. The most likely area to receive snow would be across Nebraska, Iowa, into Wisconsin.

Then, the cold air settles in and another storm develops near the west coast. How this storm develops and moves out will decide if we get any winter precipitation late in the weekend into early next week. There is a very strong temperature contrast developing at the surface and 850 mb levels. The 850 mb level is roughly 5,000 feet up. Below you can see the strange trough in the west and the set up at 850 mb for Sunday morning. We are about -12 Celsius. It is +12 C near San Antonio. If the storm can hold together then the warm moist air will be forced northward and we would end up with a snowstorm Sunday into Monday. But, there are a lot of questions on how this storm will develop, hold together, and where it will track. I am rooting it on, but it is very frustrating as winter will likely fade away in the next couple of weeks. This may be our last opportunity of the season for snowfall.

Click above to enlarge

This last twist in our winter weather pattern is almost identical to what happened in December. What happens next? A complete deamplification of the pattern and we will likely lose the Arctic air within 10 days. This doesn't mean a winter storm can't form in March. The next part of the pattern will get flat, but then a series of stronger storms could affect us during March. Hopefully it will at least rain, otherwise we are going to get extremely dry.

Gary

Posted by at 11:47 AM | Comments (5)

New York Snowfall Pictures

Hello, bloggers!
A friend of mine in New York City just sent me some pictures of the snow there. I thought you would all be interested in seeing them... pretty amazing!

First, this is the satellite image from the weekend... do you see the "eye" type feature? Kind of looks like a hurricane, doesn't it?

Imagine having to shovel this sidewalk... no thanks!!

That is a CAR burried under all that snow:

A shot of the driveway:

Pretty crazy, with the record snowfall there. 26.9 inches in Central Park... in less than 24 hours... that is unbelieveable!!
Have a good day!
Jamie

Posted by at 12:14 PM | Comments (7)

Things Change Quickly!

Quite the chilly weekend around the metro! Temperatures have been below average, and we've even seen some light snow showers! It didn't amount to MUCH accumulation, but some locations definitely saw a good dusting. Here is a picture sent in from one of our viewers:

This is from Mr. Olinger in Lenexa, KS... thank you for sending it in... quite a pretty shot!

As for today's forecast, we do have the CHANCE of a few flurries. If we see any flakes flying... I don't think it will be to the extent we saw yesterday by any means. The energy diving down today is a bit weaker, as you can see:

Click to enlarge

Above is yesterday's storm that affected us. Now take a look at our shortwave moving through today:

Click to enlarge

You can see it's not as strong... so all we're expecting is a few flurries, if that! You might notice the winds pick up for a little while... especially on the Kansas side this afternoon. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds today, with highs in the lower 30s.

Then get ready for many changes as we head into the work week! The first half of the week will feature warmer temperatures and plenty of sunshine! Monday we should be into the 50s... Tuesday we could easily be approaching 60... and Wednesday things will start to change. We are still expecting a very cold end to the week!

We're also watching the potential for a storm of some sort on Thursday. Right now it could be anything from rain to ice to snow...

Click to enlarge

We will keep an eye on it and keep you posted!
Hope you are enjoying your weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:23 AM | Comments (5)

Forecasting accuracy

We have received a few questions about our 3 Degree Warranty. When we get within 3 degrees we pull out a viewers name. At the end of each month one person wins a $1,000 savings bond from Heartland Bank. So, when we are accurate you win! Occasionally we get an email suggesting that it is a 6 or 7 degree warranty, and not 3. What do you think? It really is 3 degrees. If we forecast 40 for today, which is our forecast, then if the high is anywhere from 37 to 43 then we are within 3. There are 7 temperatures that will keep us within 3 degrees (37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43). I almost always forecast on the high side, so about 80% of the time it will be lower than our forecast high or right on the nose. Let's see what happens with today's forecast of 40. Either way we have to be within 3 degrees. You can register to win on our website or you can send us a card to 3 Degree Warranty, 4720 Oak Street, KCMO 64112.

So, who is the most accurate in Kansas City. You can go to: www.weatherate.com and see the rating system that was developed about 3 years ago. The latest season is almost over and we are #1 for the third year in a row. Here are the latest standings with a few weeks left in the season.

KSHB: 5.76

Other station #2: 6.70
Other station #3: 6.93
Other station #4: 7.15

This works like a golf score. The lower the number the more accurate the station. KSHB has been #1 in each contest since Weatherate began rating television stations' accuracy. The Weatherate system verifies highs, lows, cloud cover, wind, severe weather, and precipitation.

We will continue to work hard at bringing you the most accurate forecast. There is a difference and one of our goals is to change the image of weather forecasting.

Have a great weekend. It will be cold. A few flurries are possible, but the dry weather pattern continues. There is a possibility of an interesting set up for a winter storm later next week. But, it will take a lot for it to all come together.

The KSHB weather team

Posted by at 7:04 AM | Comments (15)

The same pattern

Unfortunately we continue to cycle through this horrible weather pattern. I am now angry with Mother Nature and it isn't good to be mad at her. We are literally going through the same pattern that occurred during December. And, we know what is likely to happen next. So, if it is going to snow it better happen soon. The high amplitude pattern is still likely for another 7 to 10 days, or perhaps a bit longer, then the Pacific jet will likely break back through the west coast. This could mean our realisitic chances for a snow storm the rest of the winter could lie in what happens during the next dozen days. Let's call it a dozen days of potential. After this there will likely be some storm systems with rain, but the threat of snow would be diminished considerably. So, our window of opportunity for snow lovers may be closing soon.

Look, above, how close the snow came to us yesterday. The area of snow just east and northeast was just flurries to a dusting. But from central Missouri to St. Louis it was a small snowstorm with up to 5 inches falling.

The latest trend in the models is for a new ridge aloft to develop off the west coast. This could be the last major amplification for a while. Let's see how this evolves. When it happened in December we did get one last cold shot and a small snow event around December 17th. But, then it warmed up towards the end of December and we know what happened in January. Remember we are likely in this 60 to 62 day cycle. The cold part of the pattern that occurred 60 days or so ago lasted until just before Christmas. So, the dozen days of potential lie ahead. There is slim hope for winter weather lovers.

Our forecast for the winter we issued November 10th has been almost perfect. We thought there would be a very warm winter with perhaps one or two Arctic outbreaks. And, I stated that this could be the lowest seasonal snowfall total in our history. Well, take out the freaky December snowstorm and we are sitting at about 3 inches this season. I updated the winter forecast when the cold part of the cycle showed up. And, it has returned, but this time with NO SNOW, so far.

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (4)

Will it stay dry? Next week is looking colder

It is early Wednesday morning, colder air is moving in. Light snow has missed us to the east and we are getting drier and drier. This morning there have been a few sprinkles and flurries in the area. But, nothing more than a trace.

So, has it been a very dry season? YES! I just did an anlalysis of our precipitation data since November 1st. The results.......we are set up for a bad fire season this March and April if it gets windy. Look at the data below:

Click above to enlarge

As you can see we average 5.54" of melted down precipitation. The picture above is of the aftermath of our December snowstorm. A distant memory. You can see that KCI is not a good representative of the entire area. Chillicothe has had closer to average, but even you guys are over one inch below. So, it is dry!

It may get very cold next week. We will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through next week. The strongest cold push could come with a weak storm mid next week. Below is the 500 mb flow and the surface map for mid next week. The coldest airmass of this stretch is likely and it would last three or four days if it sets up like this.

Every computer model is showing this for next week. It also fits the cycle we are going through. This could very likely be the finale! A week of cold and some potential for snow during the next 10 days or so, especially towards the end of next week. After this next stretch the cold part of the pattern should break down. This doesn't mean we won't have a couple of chances in March. The other part of the cycle which will be coming still has potential, but it may be tough once we lose the cold air at the end of the month.

More later as we track this interesting part of our pattern.

Gary

Posted by at 7:45 AM | Comments (2)

What happened to the weather pattern?

Everything that is happening makes sense, but it is very frustrating this morning. Like I said in an entry just the other day....."It isn't what the computer models are saying, it is what actually happens that counts". The computer models were trying to lock us into a cold pattern and the lock was left open. So, we will have a couple of strong cold fronts, but for the next seven days it is really a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs.

Click above to enlarge (Top map is valid Friday, bottom map is valid next Monday night)

Above, you can see the forecast upper level flow at 18,000 feet or 500 mb level. The orange color stream is actually vorticity all spread out. And it is really aligned with the jetstream. A few days ago it appeared this would be diving in through the Rockies, but everything is further east and as a result the cold front will likely not be as strong. Oh, it has some punch to it and it will bring us a cold weekend, but not really an Arctic blast, just a Canadian surge of air.

On the second map, valid next Monday, The jetstream has retreated north. We must watch this transition as this is a new scenario that could make our weather interesting again. The flow is flattening out. If you look closely you can see the amplification of the ridge, this time further west in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This could finally build a more true Arctic airmass in western Canada. What it does from there has potential. So, there is still some hope for those of you who want some snow.

The bottom line is: The boring weather will continue for a while. After everything breaks down there is a higher likelihood of a few storm systems moving across from west to east that could bring us some precipitation later this month. But, will there be any cold air left for the storm systems?

Have a great day. The weather pattern looks different every day, so hopefully things will line up for a storm before we lose our cold air.

Oh, and one of the bloggers questioned my going up and down on the precipitation chances for this storm that will likely miss us Wednesday morning. We usually are very consisitent, but when we see a change we change it. This situation just did a complete flip flop, and I should never have jumped on it in the first place. And, it has nothing to do with ratings. We just want to get the forecast right.

One last thing this morning. Was the December snowstorm a fluke? Yes and no!!!!! I believe the set up that created the December 7th snowstorm was unique and likely shouldn't have happened. So, take that storm out and what do we have? Almost no snow the entire season. Very sad. But, the big storm did happen and we can still hold onto some hope that something similar could still evolve before we lose the cold air..

Gary

Posted by at 6:46 AM | Comments (7)

Snow is back out of the forecast

The latest trends on the models is for the jet stream to dive in over the Kansas/Missouri state line. This would place any chance of snow well east of KC. So, maybe a flurry unless the jet dives in further west.

Gary

Posted by at 8:18 PM | Comments (3)

Snow is in the forecast

It is early Monday morning and as I am writing the weather pattern continues to evolve into the high amplitude pattern. Our flow aloft will be coming straight out of the north by Tuesday into Wednesday. A disturbance has come over the west coast ridge and is developing and turning our way. This type of storm can produce 2 to 3 inches of snow in a narrow path, but will it hold together and where will it track? Look below at the precipitation forecasted by the 06z run of the GFS. It shows .25" to .40" of melted down totals over our area, but is likely a bit overdone. This would translate well into that 2" to 3" range, but it would be a 70 to 100 mile wide swath that gets most of the accumulation. A slightly further west track and we would get a few flurries. A little bit weaker and more disorganized and we would get only flurries as well. So, this will have to be monitored closely. I hate it when forecasts come out saying that it is too dry for snow to develop. It all depends on the lifting of the critical layer. If it is forced upwards the little bit of moisture available can produce significant snowfall.

Click above to enlarge (showing total precipitation for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning)

Let's see what the trend is as we go through today. New data is always coming in. The NAM model only has a dusting, as of the 06z data, so we will keep tracking it. I am hoping for at least one inch of snow.

And, yesterday was our first day below average. It was 2.5 degrees below average. This is just the beginning. We likely have many more cold days ahead. The Arctic front due on Friday looks quite strong.

Gary

Posted by at 7:53 AM | Comments (3)

Cold Weekend!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 35
LOW: 18

This weekend, our highs have only been in the 30s, with lows today in the teens!! It sure FEELS cold, but this is actually pretty close to "average" temperatures for this time of year. We just got spoiled with the warmer winter weather we saw through January... and now this little dose of reality feels down right chilly!

This week we will see some ups and downs... before the bottom completely drops out next weekend. Here is what's going on:

The week will start near average, with highs in the upper 30s/low 40s Monday and Tuesday. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday, a quick-moving disturbance will move through. This may or may not bring us a few flurries or light snow showers. Right now, moisture looks slim... but I have put in a 20% chance. You can see the wave on this afternoon's GFS:

Click to enlarge

What it WILL do, is bring in a quick shot of COLD air. Expect highs on Wednesday in the 30s again!

Then on Thursday... we COULD warm up as high as 50... we'll have to watch the timing of the Arctic Cold Front set to affect us Friday into the weekend. Yes ARCTIC . That means COLD !! We are long overdue...

Hope you have a great week!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:44 PM | Comments (1)

Question from a blogger

Here is a great question from a blogger. This is a great question and I have the answer. It is quite complex, so let me know if it makes sense to you.

Hi, Gary,

Thanks!
Craig,

The first thing to realize is that the same specific results are NOT likely with each set up. This will be a perfect example. The first time we went through this pattern it was very cold during the first 7 days of December, then when the second surge of cold arrived it wasn't as cold. I will explain why in a second. We are now in the second cycle of the pattern which occurred 60 days or so ago. This time, the first surge is weaker and the second surge of cold will likely be MUCH MORE POWERFUL.

Look back on last Saturday. We had an almost identical set up for severe weather 61 days earlier on November 28th. Both days had slight risks, meso discussions, and a landspout with damage last Saturday, and the Excelsior Springs tornado with the November 28th version. So, similar pattern........different specific results.

Now, back to why was it so cold in the first 7 days of December? A storm developed over northern Colorado and Wyoming and helped produce our snowstorm. But, it was so strong that it saturated the dry and cold airmass to our north thus creating a United States born Arctic airmass. This time, the same pattern is actually producing a similar storm. The one that is moving our way right now, which could still produce a bit of snow Sunday night. But, it is much faster moving, and not as strong. So, the dry airmass to our north is not saturating and this first cold outbreak is not as strong.

And then Craig states that we didn't lock into the pattern as is showing up on today's models? But, we did look at the attached 500 mb map below. This map is valid 00z December 17th, 2005. The same thing is happening. It may or may not lock in a bit longer. Remember it isn't what the computer models are saying, it is what actually happens. This cold wave was not showing up a week ago very well. Remember. But.....we knew it was coming!

This makes complete sense to me. Does it for you?

Gary

Posted by at 1:51 PM | Comments (6)

Colder and then Arctic?

The first Canadian cold front has moved through this morning. This would usually be an Arctic front, but it is not quite tapping the Arctic air. There will be other Canadian fronts, and then the potential for a true Arctic front within a week. Below you will see the 500 mb flow forecasted by the latest GFS run valid next Thursday morning. And, the surface to go with it. If this verifies then it will be down into the single digits or teens by late next week.

A fast moving storm will pass by Sunday night. If it holds together significant snow could fall, but the models are all phasing the flow together preventing strong lift. This is something we will be monitoring closely. The storm in question is off the west coast now and will move through the ridge Saturday before rapidly approaching Sunday. Sometimes these move through the ridge and hold together, sometimes they get ripped apart. I feel it will snow, but at this moment will it be more than a dusting? I just don't feel it yet. A trail of moisture and clouds should be left behind the system and we will be susceptable to some light snow Monday too.

This pattern that has evolved is EXACTLY the same pattern that set up in December. We knew it was coming and it is fascinating watching everything fall into place according to my theory. So what is next? A major snowstorm, brutal cold? It could be an exciting and rewarding 14 days ahead. Or, it could leave weather lovers frustrated again. I have a feeling if you like weather changes, cold, and snow, by the time the next two weeks are done we should be looking back on it with a smile on our face. Unfortunately we could also be left unfulfilled if the flow doesn't amplify enough. Just a little more amplification to the pattern and it gets extremely cold. A little less, and the cold air stays just northeast of us. These are the things we will be looking for.

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Posted by at 11:09 AM | Comments (3)

Freaky Friday

Good morning!

Today is the day everything changes for us! You will definitely notice COLDER air in place today, as well as WINDY conditions. A cold front is moving through this morning, and with it... we are seeing an increase in cloud cover. The winds will also pick up behind the front... and we could see gusts to 30mph! Hold onto your hats!

Here is a look at the low cloud deck coming in this morning:

Click to enlarge

Depending on how long those clouds hold together... it might be even cooler than originally thought this afternoon. We are going for a high near 40 degrees right now.

We are still tracking the chance of snow Sunday night into Monday. Here is a look at the latest model data... via the 12Z NAM:

Click to enlarge

It is looking pretty disorganized... and is lacking moisture... but we will continue to watch it!
Have a good day! Stay warm! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 8:31 AM | Comments (1)

The cold part of our pattern is coming!

Scroll down below to see some pictures from my Weather Pattern Theory presentation (they are in Jamie's blog entry)

Here are my weather thoughts today....

Below is the 168 hour GFS 500 mb flow. This is valid one week from this morning. A very strong ridge is becoming established near the west coast of the United States and this will place us in north to northwest flow aloft. Cold air will be forced southward and it will be a nearly consistant pattern for the next two weeks. What does this mean for us? It means it will be much colder, but until something changes it will be dry. There is one chance of snow or something showing up for Sunday night into early Monday. This is actually related to the storm that gave us our big snow in December. We have to watch it closely, but at this moment it seems MUCH weaker than that December storm. This could change. It also isn't as cold as it was when this storm approached us in December. After this passes I see chances of a few snow showers at times, but unless the flow backs into the Pacific northwest we could be very dry and boring during this cold wave.

I am asking on the air tonight, "Do you still want it to snow?". I have dinner on the line with David Lawrence. I said that 70 to 75% of the people in and around Kansas City want it to snow. I will show the results on the 10 PM newscast tonight and then talk about it with David Lawrence tomorrow morning on 106.5.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 11:04 AM | Comments (25)

Wednesday

Hello, there...

Gary's talk went great last night at the local chapter AMS meeting! I went along with my husband, Ken... and it seemed like everyone was very interested in what Gary had to say about his weather pattern theory! Ken took a few pictures of Gary giving his presentation:

And Ken, who knows nothing about weather, said he is glad he went! He said:
"Even though I was totally lost... I would believe anything Gary says, because he is so passionate!" Yes he IS! :)

On to the forecasting part of the blog.... a weak cold front passed through early this morning... you can see it on the surface map below:

Click to enlarge

The air behind that front is not much colder, though, so while highs today will be slightly cooler... we will still be in the mid-50s!! And expect another run for 60 degrees on Thursday. We are still tracking a colder change as we head into the weekend. AND the chance of snow Sunday night into Monday. Here is a look at the latest GFS run for that timeframe:

Click to enlarge

You can see the storm on the 500mb chart... let's check the surface moisture...

It's showing up there, too. It doesn't look like there is a WHOLE lot of moisture to work with here... but stay tuned!

Jamie

Posted by at 10:34 AM