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Colder and then Arctic?
The first Canadian cold front has moved through this morning. This would usually be an Arctic front, but it is not quite tapping the Arctic air. There will be other Canadian fronts, and then the potential for a true Arctic front within a week. Below you will see the 500 mb flow forecasted by the latest GFS run valid next Thursday morning. And, the surface to go with it. If this verifies then it will be down into the single digits or teens by late next week.
A fast moving storm will pass by Sunday night. If it holds together significant snow could fall, but the models are all phasing the flow together preventing strong lift. This is something we will be monitoring closely. The storm in question is off the west coast now and will move through the ridge Saturday before rapidly approaching Sunday. Sometimes these move through the ridge and hold together, sometimes they get ripped apart. I feel it will snow, but at this moment will it be more than a dusting? I just don't feel it yet. A trail of moisture and clouds should be left behind the system and we will be susceptable to some light snow Monday too.
This pattern that has evolved is EXACTLY the same pattern that set up in December. We knew it was coming and it is fascinating watching everything fall into place according to my theory. So what is next? A major snowstorm, brutal cold? It could be an exciting and rewarding 14 days ahead. Or, it could leave weather lovers frustrated again. I have a feeling if you like weather changes, cold, and snow, by the time the next two weeks are done we should be looking back on it with a smile on our face. Unfortunately we could also be left unfulfilled if the flow doesn't amplify enough. Just a little more amplification to the pattern and it gets extremely cold. A little less, and the cold air stays just northeast of us. These are the things we will be looking for.
Have a great weekend!
Gary
Posted by at February 3, 2006 11:09 AM
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I have been watching your weather EVERY NIGHT for the past 3yrs. Keep up the good work. As for the weather pattern, I hope everything comes togeather for another couple of BIG SNOWSTORMS. Expect for the big snow we got in December its been a pretty warm and dry season. I am a FIRE FIGHTER and we NEED MOISTURE desparatly. I just hope that we can get it before everything gets too dry.
Matt,
There are parts of this pattern we are in that will bring a chance of precipitation, and then there are parts that are dry. Most of the pattern is dry. Hopefully as we move into the spring it will moisten up, but I fear the first half of spring will be dry.
Gary
Posted by: matt at February 3, 2006 2:05 PM
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Hi Gary - looking at the last GFS, I am afraid we will see cold air certainly, but other than possibly Sunday (and that the GFS doesn't really show either), the polar vortex anchored over northern Ontario stays there throughout 384 hours, with the flow becoming more westerly over us from its initial northwesterly position - almost no chance of precip. The way this awful, boring winter has been, I'd bet on the scenario the GFS paints. God, I hope I am wrong...but...
Hope Spring brings something different, but... Florida and Alabama look like interesting places to live for abundant rain, at least for now!!! YAWN...
The Dog
Doggy,
I am very worried about it staying dry. But, if the cold air does indeed make it here next weekend, then it won't take much. Let's hope for something slightly different to create a big storm. It isn't showing up now.
Gary
Posted by: stormdog at February 3, 2006 5:36 PM
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Hi, Gary,
So, according to the pattern, adhering
to its last incarnation in early December,
the snow would be followed by warm enough
temperatures to melt the then heavy (8" in
Lawrence) snow, then begin, 60-62 days
from Dec. 22nd more long term warmth.
From December 8th afternoon through
December 22nd wasn't as cold as the upcoming
10 days to 2 weeks.
We didn't have a large 500 mb low locked
over eastern Canada, as I recall.
How does the recurring pattern explain
this?
Thanks!
Craig,
The first thing to realize is that the same specific results are NOT likely with each set up. This will be a perfect example. The first time we went through this pattern it was very cold during the first 7 days of December, then when the second surge of cold arrived it wasn't as cold. I will explain why in a second. We are now in the second cycle of the pattern which occurred 60 days or so ago. This time, the first surge is weaker and the second surge of cold will likely be MUCH MORE POWERFUL.
Look back on last Saturday. We had an almost identical set up for severe weather 61 days earlier on November 28th. Both days had slight risks, meso discussions, and a landspout with damage last Saturday, and the Excelsior Springs tornado with the November 28th version. So, similar pattern........different specific results.
Now, back to why was it so cold in the first 7 days of December? A storm developed over northern Colorado and Wyoming and helped produce our snowstorm. But, it was so strong that it saturated the dry and cold airmass to our north thus creating a United States born Arctic airmass. This time, the same pattern is actually producing a similar storm. The one that is moving our way right now, which could still produce a bit of snow Sunday night. But, it is much faster moving, and not as strong. So, the dry airmass to our north is not saturating and this first cold outbreak is not as strong.
This makes complete sense to me. Does it for you?
Gary
Posted by: Craig at February 4, 2006 9:35 AM
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