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Gary,

It seems like this warm winter was caused by the active storm track and the Pacific lodaing Canada with very warm air. Will this same active pattern in the Pacific produce a lot of rain in the Spring? Hopefully this will be an active season coming up.

Devin Kellerman

David,

In a way you are correct. If you remember when we issued our winter forecast in November I talked about the "storm generating machine" that was likely to be the major force in our weather pattern. Well, it was and it is still there. We have had quite a few systems crossing the plains, and when the moisture gets here in May and June it could get wet. Hopefully it will. But, I am not sure at this point.

Gary

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In reading the GFS and NOGAPS, it appears for the next week or so we will likely be dominated with higher pressures..would this indicate continued dryness into the end of March?

Scott,

I don't know if you have been following my theory, but it is helping tremendously in our forecasts. In the short term and in the long term.

We believe we are in a 60 day cycle, give or take a few days. There are two storm systems that will likely occur during March based on my theory alone. So, I do believe it will rain, but will it be 1 inch, 2 inches, or what we really need right now which is more than 2 inches. We will be looking for these two stronger storm systems around mid month and again near the end of the month. In between there will be some chances but not many.

Gary

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Guess weather buffs should move to California, eh? Totally boring, boring, boring February has been. Hope the drought can break, but a tough drought is really tough to get out of once we are in it, in my opinion and years in Oklahoma. Could one say that breaking the drought is as likely as avoiding civil war in Iraq? Geez, I hope not!!!

Dog

StormDog,

We may get some rain this weekend. I hope so. The California storm is perfectly in sync with what happened there 60 days ago. Remember the Rose Parade being washed out. Well, more proof to my theory. Los Angeles has also had a boring winter with the exception of two or three storm systems.

Gary

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I am curious...since we have seen such a mild winter largely due to the movement of the jet stream, and with this looking to be a La Nina year...is there a relationship or a higher probability with continued mild weather, that it could enhance or produce a higher than normal severe storm season? Seems I remember seeing something that showed a tread of La Nina years and higher levels of severe storms. I also begin to wonder what effects that will have in the Atlantic basin regarding tropical developments.

Scott,

There is evidence that La Nina is now gone. We are back to neutral conditions or even a weak El Nino. And, I don't think there is a correlation anyway. This spring will likely have its moments.

Gary

hi
i notice some of the record breaking temps are like the 30s. Are we being set up for another "dust bowl"? Thanks for the answer.

Randy
Pomona

Randy,

Every year the pattern is unique. Sometimes a series of dry years get lumped together and we have a serious drought, but I believe that every year is different. This means that we will likely not have a stretch like the 1930s, but only a few years from now will we be able to tell.

Gary

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Just to follow up. Based on the Climate Prediction Center Forcast Forum for January, here is the excerpt: "La Niña conditions are expected to continue during the next 3-6 months. " I guess I will wait for the Feb. forecast due on Feb 9th to see if this has trended as you indicate to neutral or even El Nino.