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Forecasting accuracy
We have received a few questions about our 3 Degree Warranty. When we get within 3 degrees we pull out a viewers name. At the end of each month one person wins a $1,000 savings bond from Heartland Bank. So, when we are accurate you win! Occasionally we get an email suggesting that it is a 6 or 7 degree warranty, and not 3. What do you think? It really is 3 degrees. If we forecast 40 for today, which is our forecast, then if the high is anywhere from 37 to 43 then we are within 3. There are 7 temperatures that will keep us within 3 degrees (37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43). I almost always forecast on the high side, so about 80% of the time it will be lower than our forecast high or right on the nose. Let's see what happens with today's forecast of 40. Either way we have to be within 3 degrees. You can register to win on our website or you can send us a card to 3 Degree Warranty, 4720 Oak Street, KCMO 64112.
So, who is the most accurate in Kansas City. You can go to: www.weatherate.com and see the rating system that was developed about 3 years ago. The latest season is almost over and we are #1 for the third year in a row. Here are the latest standings with a few weeks left in the season.
KSHB: 5.76
Other station #2: 6.70
Other station #3: 6.93
Other station #4: 7.15
This works like a golf score. The lower the number the more accurate the station. KSHB has been #1 in each contest since Weatherate began rating television stations' accuracy. The Weatherate system verifies highs, lows, cloud cover, wind, severe weather, and precipitation.
We will continue to work hard at bringing you the most accurate forecast. There is a difference and one of our goals is to change the image of weather forecasting.
Have a great weekend. It will be cold. A few flurries are possible, but the dry weather pattern continues. There is a possibility of an interesting set up for a winter storm later next week. But, it will take a lot for it to all come together.
The KSHB weather team
Posted by at February 10, 2006 7:04 AM
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I disagree with you Gary, your claimed 3 degree warranty is not a 3 degree warranty whatsoever. I see it as a possible 7 degree variance. If it was a true three degree warranty then you will guess/forecast the temp as 40, you have 39, 40, and 41 as possible accurate temps. All you are doing with your version of a "3 degree warranty" is giving yourself a bigger window to guess/forecast and still claim your guesses/forecasts are "accurate" if you guess within that big window. To me it is a deceptive way for you to measure "accuracy". To prove my point, next time I see you on TV I want to see you print a graph with your guess planted in the middle of a line with three degrees printed on each side (36,37,38,((39)),40,41,42) to show your "3 degree warranty". This will help the audience understand visually that you have given yourself a HUGE window to guess/forecast the temp for the day. It sure would be easier to guess a temp in a 7 degree window than a 3 degree window.
Jason,
I don't disagree with your assessment. And, we are showing the 7 degree window every night during the 10 PM newscast. We are still forecasting the high, trying to hit it on the nose. And if we are three degrees off either way it is still an excellent forecast. I guess what you are saying is that it is a 7 degree warranty. But, I don't see it that way. And, there is no way to have a one degree Warranty in your thinking. That would imply being within a half degree. In other words, if I forecast 40, then to be a 1 degree warranty it would have to be 39.5, 40, or 40.5. Isn't this a bit ridiculous. I will stand by the 3 degree warranty. It is not a stretch by any imagination. At least I don't think so.
Gary
Posted by: Jason at February 10, 2006 9:37 AM
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I have some great sunset shots from 2/9 if you're interested. I don't know your email address. I promise not to fill your in-basket. It's just that last night was spectacular.
Gary,
Email me at Lezak@nbcactionnews.com
Gary
Posted by: Gary Ross at February 10, 2006 12:00 PM
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Gary,
I don't care what anyone says, you and your weather team are KC's most accurate. Besides that fact, you make weather FUN! I enter the 3-Degree-Warranty contest every month because you are so accurate that I know my odds of winning are favorable!!!
Keep up the good work!!!!!!!
Thanks,
Shelly
Shelly,
Thank you for the support!
Gary
Posted by: Shelly at February 10, 2006 12:05 PM
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I disagree with the previous poster. Your three-degree contest says you have to be WITHIN THREE DEGREES of the daily high. Whether you are three above or below... you are still within three!! :)
Keep up the good work!
Sara
Sara,
Thank you. I agree with you!
Gary
Posted by: sara at February 10, 2006 12:55 PM
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I disagree with Jason the blogger about the warranty. Saying it is a "3 degree guarantee" can mean different things. On one hand, you are predicting a temperature, and the actual temperature has to be within 3 of the prediction. So in that case it is a three degree warranty.
The seven degree spread that Jason talks about isn't really important because even though it is a seven degree spread, in order to get the prediction correct, Gary would have to be within three of the temperature.
Tim,
Your message is perfect!!!!! Exactly! And, thank you.
Gary
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at February 10, 2006 2:18 PM
Hi Gary! Sorry you are getting alittle negativity thrown your way. Forecasting is hard and living in the midwest makes for more difficulty, but you are very accurate. I talk so highly of you and your team that alot of family members have changed where they get their weather information and are now watching you. I say forget the winter and bring on the spring. I have given up on mother nature to provide me and my girls with snow!! Monica
Monica,
Think snow! And, thank you!
Gary
Posted by: Monica at February 10, 2006 3:05 PM
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Gary, I haven't yet made up my mind about the 3 degree/7 degree warranty debate. I try to think it's a 3 degree warranty, but my husband tries to sway me into thinking it's 7. HOWEVER, I know, you know, and all of your loyal watchers know that you are the most accurate of all the stations. You're far superior than others in your field in both your knowledge and enthusiasm, and you should be proud of that. I'm sure many others agree with me when I say you're the best! You're what keeps me glued to my t.v. at 10:15 every night! :-)
Koyuki,
Thank you so much! Have a great weekend, it looks like the weather is getting exciting next week.
Gary
Posted by: Koyuki at February 10, 2006 3:50 PM
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Hey Gary and weather team you are the best in Kansas City by far. You said to the previous blogger it is looking exciting next week how exciting are you thinking and what type of precipitation. Thanks again for all your hard work you truely are the best weather team ive ever watched.
Daniel,
The latest trends of the models, everyone, is to have a true Arctic airmass near by around Thursday of next week. The flow aloft is close to producing a storm. But, it is still strange. It could all come together and a big storm may form, but confidence is low. It is just too far away.
Gary
Posted by: Daniel at February 10, 2006 4:51 PM
The 3 Degree Warranty makes complete sense to me. You only have a +/- 3 degree variance. If it is anything more or less than 3 degrees from your forecast, it is outside those limits. You have a 7 degree span where you will be correct, but you only have 3 degrees of variance either way from your forecast. You guarantee to forecast within 3 degrees of the temperature. It is all within a 7 degree span because temperatures can be higher or lower. You are always within 3 degrees, regardless of whether it is higher or lower. I don't know what it matters anyway...if you get the forecast right, everybody wins!
Chris,
Thank you, but today we blew it. It was 47 degrees. It just got out of control.
Gary
Posted by: Chris at February 10, 2006 5:21 PM
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Hi Gary,
Quick question regarding the 3-Degree Warranty... When determining the high temperature for the day, is the reading from KCI used? or is the Downtown Airport high temperature used?
JS,
We use KCI's high. Have a great weekend.
Gary
Posted by: JS at February 10, 2006 5:45 PM
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I completely agree with the other posters who support your 3 degree warranty. It's just an annoying technicality that there are actually 7 degrees within your 3 point spread on either side of your forecast. I figure if someone is that upset over you claiming it's 3 degrees when they think it's 7, they could put their energy towards worrying about something that REALLY matters! But aside from all that, 3 degrees or 7 degrees, you make watching weather fun. It's obvious you enjoy your job and that's what matters in the end. How many people can say they honestly love and are fascinated by their job? Way to go!
MARLINA:
Thank you so much for your nice comments! We agree with you on the 3-degree-warranty! We think it is fair to call it so, because we HAVE to be within three. We loose if we are seven numbers off.
Jamie
Posted by: Marlina at February 10, 2006 11:54 PM
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Hey kshb weather team, I was just wondering if you would like me to send pictures from the snow we are recieving we are having near white out conditions. Weve had maybe a half an inch so far. How long do you think it will last and is it still looking colder with any snow next week? Thanks.
DANIEL:
You can always send your pictures to:
weather@nbcactionnews.com
Thanks!
Jamie
Posted by: Daniel at February 11, 2006 12:06 PM
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Jamie,
Looks like the long range forecast sticks perfectly with Gary's theory. Suddenly everyone is popping up with cold and snow towards the latter part of next week, which fits exactly with his theory - although a day or so off. But if it happens and it looks like it will, Gary should get the credit he deserves.
GARY:
You are right... the pattern continues to cycle. I was introduced to it a year and a half ago... so this is only my second time watching it happen again and again. It is truly amazing...
Jamie
Posted by: Gary B. at February 11, 2006 3:50 PM
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I agree with wether you are 3 degrees above or 3 degrees below you are still within 3 degrees. I really hope this storm comes together next week. Two years with out a single snowstorm is too long for me to wait. LOL lets hope it is a big one if it comes together it still is to far away right now to tell. :)
John
JOHN:
You are right... three above, three below... it all qualifies to be "within three"... which is what we say every night!!
We have some ups and downs this week... it could get interesting by the end of it all!
Jamie
Posted by: John Moon III at February 11, 2006 4:27 PM
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Goodness....looks like several people disagree with me and agree with you Gary. Oh well, I by no means meant my message to be disrespectful but I just wanted to point out what I see in your warranty. I can see everyone's aspect and highly resect them. I agree with everyone here that you are the best at forecasting and only turn to your forecast to plan my day. Thanks for everything.
Jason,
Thank you! Now, the new data has a little snow for Friday evening.
Gary
Posted by: Jason at February 16, 2006 6:33 PM
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