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March Outlook & Crop Concerns
You have, likely read much about Gary's weather pattern theory in our blog. I have worked with Gary for 13 years, and I for one believe in it. The cold spell has come and gone, and we seem to be heading back towards the warmer part of the pattern, which produced the warmest January on record. This is not to say March will have its cold days, but overall we are seeing clear indications of a warmer than average month. We also will likely have storm systems tracking across the Plains, just as they did in January. However, they moved too fast and did not pick up Gulf moisture in time. So, all they did was produce wind & some clouds. This may continue in March. However, if one of these storms can slow down and pick up some moisture we could have a beneficial wet storm. Right now we are around 10 days away from the potential for a good soaking.
As we go into March we will need more and more moisture per week to sustain average rainfall. We average .33" of rain per week in February, while in March that jumps to .61". We are on the northern edge of a major drought that has its grip on Oklahoma and Texas. 91% of the hard red winter wheat crop in Oklahoma and Texas is in very poor to poor condition. If those states do not get much rain during the next 2-3 weeks it will be a major crop disaster. Kansas is not in bad shape yet, but rain is needed ASAP.
So, if it does not rain soon, watch the prices go up on cracker and cookies.
Jeff Penner
Posted by at February 22, 2006 6:03 PM
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NO, not cookies!!! =)
MARLINA:
Exactly what I'm thinking! ;)
Jamie
Posted by: Marlina at February 22, 2006 10:56 PM
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I agree Jeff, It looks to be a dry spring. I hope we can get more than a few tenths of precip first part of March. I know patterns can change, but we have been saying that for a long time. I guess it could be worse like OK and TX.. they are in trouble.
Great behind the scenes work Jeff
You Rock!!!!
Joe,
The newest data is not too encouraging for plains moisture. It may take until April or May for this pattern to start producing meaningful rain. It may be too late for the wheat.
Thanks for the compliment.
Jeff
Posted by: Joe at February 22, 2006 11:18 PM
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According to the latest NOAA US Drought Monitor survey, it appears we have made it into the D1/D2--Drought to Moderate drought--territory. Even with a storm system predicted to give us the potential for .2 to .5 inches liquid precip., isn't this too little too late to keep us from dropping over the edge into a deeper, more severe drought given the warmer/drier cycle of the weather pattern we are heading into? Looks to be a brown spring instead of the green one we're used to.
Mike,
The southern plains drought is creeping this way. However, if we can get average to above average rainfall in May and June the drought will end quickly, even if it is dry in March and April. Now, if it takes 2 months to get good rains, it will be too late for the wheat crop.
Jeff
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at February 23, 2006 9:47 AM
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I posted acouple of weeks ago that I was afraid that it was going to be a busy fire season for me and the rest of the local fire departments. So far we have been quite BUSY. Is there any change comming? Or is this going to be BUSY for the Fire Dept.'s.
Thanks
Matt
Matt,
There is a chance of some rain in 7-10 days. This may temporarily help. Realistically, it may take until April or May to get regular, decent rains.
Jeff
Posted by: Matt at February 23, 2006 11:26 AM
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