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No snow tonight and weather pattern!
Arctic high pressure is taking stronger control. There are a lot of radar echoes with snow aloft and we may still have a few flurries. I thought that we could get some lift from the right rear quadrant of a jet streak racing off to our northeast tonight, but it just isn't getting its act together. We were only forecasting a dusting to an inch with perhaps 2 inches to the south, but it was likely a bad forecast. So, in some respects this forecast wasn't a good one, but then again it is snowing at midnight, and we are getting a dusting in some spots. This winter, being almost over, will now leave a very bad taste in my mouth.
Now to the weather pattern! We believe that the weather pattern that set up in the fall has continued. I can show you how it is just cycling through, about a 60 to 62 day cycle. This is the cold part of the pattern, but now it is going back into late December and January again. This is likely going to lead to an extremely dry and very boring period of weather. There may be a couple of storm systems in March, and hopefully these few storms will bring us some rainfall. But, any threat of snow is now becoming very unlikely. If you take out that one December snowstorm this would have been the lowest amount of snow in KC history.
Looking ahead through the spring and into summer remember one thing. This colder part of our cycle will repeat two more times. One time in early to mid April, and then again around mid June, just as summer is suppose to begin. We will have some very warm stretches, but then this cold more amplified part of the pattern should bring us some interesting weather as the Gulf of Mexico opens up and brings us some moisture in late spring.
Have a great weekend.
Gary
Posted by at February 17, 2006 8:13 PM
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Gary,
So, so sorry about this winter forcast. I take total blame. It seems that whenever I move to a new area the snow just doesn't materialize. I am a HUGE snow lover and it pains me that my luck is so bad and others needlessly suffer because of me. I have done everything to help the situation... (i.e., the snow dance, pajamas inside out, pajamas backwards, etc.) My kids think I'm a bit weird. We are a military family and were previously stationed here at Ft. Leavenworth about 3 years ago. When we found out that we were returning one of the things we looked forward to was your forcasts. Thank you for your dedication and passion. You have truly made "weather bugs" out of all of us. Unfortunately for all snow lovers we will be here next year too... maybe my luck will change.
Janine
Janine,
It isn't you! But, we will test it next year. Have a great weekend.
Gary
Posted by: Janine at February 17, 2006 8:51 PM
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Awwwww, hang in there Gary. There's always a chance for a "March Surprise," right? If not, we can just hope for better luck next winter. Keep the faith!!!
Kind Regards,
Shelly
SHELLY:
Next winter should be better... it can't get much worse than this!
Posted by: Shelly at February 17, 2006 9:45 PM
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Don't be so hard on yourself! Like you said in the blog, you DID forecast a dusting of snow for some parts and when I was driving home in Lenexa, what do you know? A dusting of snow was already on the ground. I'll take any snow we can get at this point!
Marlina:
Thank you for the nice things you said! We also got a dusting here at the station. It could have been more, but it just didn't come together.
Posted by: Marlina at February 18, 2006 12:33 AM
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Hi, Gary & team...
FYI we did get a dusting of snow in Overland Park!
Sara
HI, SARA!
I don't know why Gary is beating himself up so much about that forecast... we forecased a dusting to an inch. And while we were on the *lower* end of that scale... it still verified! ;)
Jamie
Posted by: sara at February 18, 2006 8:59 AM
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Gary,
Isn't this cold spell going to be much shorter than the one we had in early December? If so, how does that play into the 60-62 day cycle? Do you suspect that this will be the last really cold blast we will have this winter?
Have a great weekend!
Tammy,
Two things! First of all the same specific results are very unlikely as we go through each cycle in this 60 to 62 day period. When this repeats in June it won't be Arctic cold, for example. But, the results this time have a lot of similarities. So secondly, let's look at it. The cold part of the pattern, on this second cycle, began on February 3rd. We had a high of 44 degrees that day, and we had 10 days in the the 40s and 30s in a row. We had a warm up for a brief two days earlier this week, and then the cold blast.
In December it was about the same, but the first part of the cold wave was stronger than the second part.
So, everything is perfectly in sinc with the cycle and my theory.
Gary
Posted by: Tammy at February 18, 2006 11:03 AM
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I will say the dirty little 7 letter word - DROUGHT!! This sure seems like we are in the same drought pattern we were in a couple of years ago. Is the weather community ready to go so far as to say we are heading into a drought?
Leonard
LEONARD:
I blogged about this tonight (Sunday). Gary will have more this week!
Jamie
Posted by: Leonard at February 18, 2006 12:23 PM
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