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Question from a blogger
Here is a great question from a blogger. This is a great question and I have the answer. It is quite complex, so let me know if it makes sense to you.
Hi, Gary,
So, according to the pattern, adhering
to its last incarnation in early December,
the snow would be followed by warm enough
temperatures to melt the then heavy (8" in
Lawrence) snow, then begin, 60-62 days
from Dec. 22nd more long term warmth.
From December 8th afternoon through
December 22nd wasn't as cold as the upcoming
10 days to 2 weeks.
We didn't have a large 500 mb low locked
over eastern Canada, as I recall.
How does the recurring pattern explain
this?
Thanks!
Craig,
The first thing to realize is that the same specific results are NOT likely with each set up. This will be a perfect example. The first time we went through this pattern it was very cold during the first 7 days of December, then when the second surge of cold arrived it wasn't as cold. I will explain why in a second. We are now in the second cycle of the pattern which occurred 60 days or so ago. This time, the first surge is weaker and the second surge of cold will likely be MUCH MORE POWERFUL.
Look back on last Saturday. We had an almost identical set up for severe weather 61 days earlier on November 28th. Both days had slight risks, meso discussions, and a landspout with damage last Saturday, and the Excelsior Springs tornado with the November 28th version. So, similar pattern........different specific results.
Now, back to why was it so cold in the first 7 days of December? A storm developed over northern Colorado and Wyoming and helped produce our snowstorm. But, it was so strong that it saturated the dry and cold airmass to our north thus creating a United States born Arctic airmass. This time, the same pattern is actually producing a similar storm. The one that is moving our way right now, which could still produce a bit of snow Sunday night. But, it is much faster moving, and not as strong. So, the dry airmass to our north is not saturating and this first cold outbreak is not as strong.
And then Craig states that we didn't lock into the pattern as is showing up on today's models? But, we did look at the attached 500 mb map below. This map is valid 00z December 17th, 2005. The same thing is happening. It may or may not lock in a bit longer. Remember it isn't what the computer models are saying, it is what actually happens. This cold wave was not showing up a week ago very well. Remember. But.....we knew it was coming!
This makes complete sense to me. Does it for you?
Gary
Posted by at February 4, 2006 1:51 PM
********************
Makes some sense to me, but not really. He's trying to compare your overall model to a specific location, Lawrence. Craig needs to understand you model is regional. On any given day, it can be 40 degrees in Lee's Summit and 18 in Lawrence with heavy snow falling. But your model works for the entire KC area quite nicely.
Gary B.
Gary:
Yes, Gary's weather pattern theory looks at the *longwave* ridges and troughs... and we are focusing on these *larger* features when we say pattern. These features will be in the same area as the pattern cycles, but the SPECIFIC weather we see can vary.
Jamie
Posted by: Gary B. at February 4, 2006 4:09 PM
****************
Great explanation Gary - I followed it and appreciate the additional insight you gave - I would be interested in reading your entire paper/presentation when you complete it - perhaps you could do your doctorate on this theme.
Much more frosty on the trail, though our dogs didn't mind - doesn't sound good for natural gas bills, but thank goodness our extra insulation we had blown into our attic have actually made our gas bill LESS than LAST years, much less. So for people reading this,I can highly recommend an R value of 49 - worth the money for sure!!!
I only mention this because this is one place that the weather really has an impact on all of us. I am sorry for those of us not in a position to deal with the energy bills, and would like to see that issue better addressed.
Anyhow, I wanted to use this entry as a comment on your excellent blog. Not looking forward to the second portion of cold weather.
Cheers,
The Dog
DOG:
That Gary... even working on his days off! :) He truly is a weather fan.
Jamie
Posted by: stormdog at February 4, 2006 4:13 PM
***************
Hi Jamie - Parker our Lab mix got his teeth cleaned yesterday and now he has the best smile (or snarl) in the house. I got excited looking at the previous run of the GFS about 336 hours out, which showed a possible precip event, but alas, the last GFS run took that away, staying with that pesky polar vortex over Ontario...much more in line with the blah dry weather - wish the previous could be correct. We'll see. The winter wheat is gonna have a hard time this year unless we get a lot more rain than we've been getting - I'll bet on a lousy crop. Yuk.
Dog
HEY, STORMDOG:
How's it going? I love the name Parker... and I bet Parker loves his clean teeth! :) I know what you mean about the GFS... Gary always calls that "fantasy island" :) It's just too far out to be accurate! Most of the time, I don't even look at it that far out. We will have to wait and see what happens. Right now it just looks dry and COLD...
I will look into the winter wheat situation... that might make a nice story!
Jamie
Posted by: stormdog at February 4, 2006 7:01 PM
****************
Gary
It seems like the GFS wants to develop a strong temperature gradient in the plains about a week from now. It will be interesting how that interacts with some energy undercutting the Pacific Ridge. A strong high pressure from Canada could knock the storm track further south.
Devin
The GFS has had troubles.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at February 4, 2006 7:35 PM
Hi, Gary,
Thanks for the explanation.
*******************
The 500 mb map for Dec. 17th is supposed to correspond to which day in the near or intermediate future with this cycle? (Feb. 17th?)
I'm also seeking to understand the prognostic
capability of your understanding of the cycle. That's why I asked about the longer
term weather pattern that is supposed to ensue.
Thank you!
Posted by: Craig at February 4, 2006 11:04 PM
*****************
On the 6 p.m. news you just said "Look at that snow coming down in Lenexa!" What about the snow coming down now in Gladstone, too???
Pat,
I did pan up to the north during the weathercast on our new ESP. And there it was your snow shower. But, our helicopter was down south. I will send them up to Gladstone for the next snow shower.
Gary
Posted by: Pat at February 10, 2006 6:13 PM
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