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 February 21, 2006

Realistic chances of a drought

This morning I did an extensive analysis of the pattern and although it still looks fairly dry overall, I see the potential for a few wet storm systems as we move into March. The first half of March will be tested well. The jet stream is likely going to dip south into the southwest part of the nation during the first week of March. Remember, the jet stream reaches peak strength in January and February before a steady weakening of the energy develops as we move into March. This weakening continues until the weakest phase of the jet stream arrives during the summer. The jet stream is actually caused by temperature contrasts. The stronger the temperature contrast........the stronger the jet stream. This is why it is at its strongest right now, and why it is at its weakest during the summer when it is warm over most of the USA. This is when the jet lifts north into Canada.

I mention all of this because the same weather pattern that we have been in will continue, but with a weaker jet stream, storm systems will slow down. Now, a slower storm moving into the southwestern United States will have the potential to bring us some significant amounts of rain or snow in March. I see some potential for this during the first half of March, and then again near the end of March. So, we will be testing the developing drought. A couple of good soakings and we will smash the drought as it tries to envelope our region. But, if we miss these opportunities for moisture it will become extremely dry as we move into April. Right now I favor on the side of getting enough moisture to avoid a serious drought. But, only a little bit.

Gary

Posted by at February 21, 2006 11:03 AM

Comments

***************
Dear Gary, I just returned from So Cal. I was visiting my relatives and friends. It was good to watch Johnny Mountain give the weather. He was my favorite out there. But I told my wife you out shine Johnny. We really missed your "enthusaism" while we were away..
Thanks for the great job that you do.. do NOT leave the Kansas City area..ha!

Randy Senior
Pomona

Randy,

I am not going anywhere, unless Al Roker retires, just kidding. Dr. George was my idol growing up and Johnny Mountain would fill in for him. I hadn't heard of Johnny in years. He always had a great personality. I am glad he is doing well.

Thank you for the kind comments!

Gary

Posted by: Randy Senior at February 21, 2006 11:46 AM

***************
Hi Gary! This has to be the most depressing weather season ever. If spring is like this I will foresure be depressed! I look forward to spring for all the exciting weather. All the coast line area's are getting great weather issues but not us. I suppose for spring we will get either hammered or nothing...what's your guess?? Take care. Monica

Monica,

Spring should be much more exciting than this winter has been. So, hold on!

Gary

Posted by: Monica at February 21, 2006 2:41 PM

*************
Gary:
Could the crazy weather this winter have anything to do with the view of the west coast visible at this website http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/satellite/view.cgi?v. What is your take on the spaghetti like structure of the clouds off the Oregon Washington coast today? Looking forward to your response.

Rob,

Those clouds are not that unusual. They appear to be stratocumulus. Sometimes they form in rows. We have seen this signature on satellite from time to time, but it is interesting. Thanks for sharing this with us.

Jeff Penner

Posted by: Rob at February 21, 2006 3:21 PM

********************************
You are going to get a laugh out of this...

http://cgi.ebay.com/US-Patent-5556029-Weather-Modification-CLOUDdissipation_W0QQitemZ5668836567QQcategoryZ1467QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Steve,

I don't think we will be buying one. If it were a snowstorm making machine we would consider it.

Gary

Posted by: Steve at February 21, 2006 6:55 PM

******************
Gary,

A general rule of TV news seems to be that at least one of the news anchors will complain about the weather if it's cold, if it rains or if it snows. I find nothing on television more grating than hearing that kind of thing when anyone who's paying attention can see that if we don't get snow or rain we'll head into a drought. I love your forecasts but unfortunately KSHB isn't immune to this rule.

Jim,

I have tried to explain to all of the anchors that I have worked with through the years that more people want it to snow than don't want it to snow. And, if they want some rain or snow then just react truthfully. It is O.K. to say you want some snow or rain.

Elizabeth and Mark are the best I have ever worked with.

I know what you mean though. It could be dry for 30 days in a row, then there is a chance of rain and it is on a Saturday and the anchors will say, "not again on a Saturday", when it had been nice for the past 10 Saturdays and we need rain.

Gary

Posted by: Jim S at February 21, 2006 11:06 PM

Unfortunately, I have to be pessimistic about our precipitation chances until something happens to change that. It seems this year, the gulf doesn't open until a storm system passes to our east. The Rockies to our west wring out whatever Pacific moisture may have been lingering in those storms, so we have been left high and dry. On top of all this, it looks as though with the warming temps and exceptionally low relative humidities (I haven't seen RH this low since I lived in Alaska) our fire danger is going to be taking a sharp rise. Please remind your viewers to be very careful with anything outdoors that could spark a fire. As dry as we are now, fire could ignite quickly and just as quickly turn disasterous.

Mike,

Next week will be our first test. There seems to be a fairly good chance of wide spread precipitation. Let's take the test and see how we feel by next weekend.

Gary

Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at February 22, 2006 9:00 AM

******************
Hi Gary et al:

I am afraid I will bet on a severe drought - in a season during the winter where the Gulf is continually cut-off, it often remains that way through at last April or early May (I base this on my storm chasing years of 1980-1999). The pattern is persistent, and unchanging, and as you once said "unusual patterns tend to persist", and I don't see much in this pattern that offers lumbering upper lows dragging up moisture into the Plains - I just don't see it. What we've had is northerly flow to the west, transitions into NW or westerly flow with little of major system development to our west, so I am afraid the deficit of moisture (possibly reaching the dessication levels of the 1930s) will be possible. The drier we are at the surface, the less enviotranspiration availble to influence marginal systems, the more sustains a drought becomes (that's my theory anyway). I truly believe in global warming, and despite our President's ignorance of that fact, the chickens are coming home to roost. Go figure.

Later,
Dog

Storm Dog,

Remember, this pattern that we are in will be continuing into the early summer. Tonight, I showed the forecast map for Friday. A stalled front in northern Kansas and low level moisture moving north. If it were May this would be very wet.

There is hope for many of these storms.

Gary

Posted by: StormDog at February 22, 2006 6:02 PM

 
 

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