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 February 6, 2006

Snow is back out of the forecast

The latest trends on the models is for the jet stream to dive in over the Kansas/Missouri state line. This would place any chance of snow well east of KC. So, maybe a flurry unless the jet dives in further west.

Gary

Posted by at February 6, 2006 8:18 PM

Comments

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Hey i was just wondering about the snow chance is it back or still out of the forecast does it look like appleton could see any snow and if so how much. Thanks

Daniel,

Right now it looks like a few flurries at the most.

Gary

Posted by: Daniel at February 6, 2006 8:49 PM

************
Gary,

I'm a little confused with your forecasting methods. Isn't it better to stick with a consitant low chance of precipitation even if you are that uncertain about the storm? It seems like from broadcast to broadcast you are jumping from high chances snow to very low chances? Is it normal for a weatherman to jump back and forth from every model run, or is this just for the ratings? I'd just like to see a little more consistancy even if there is uncertainty in the models.

Bill,

I think you will notice that we keep a very consistant forecast from day to day and from Brett Anthony to Jamie Jarosik to my own forecasts. We very rarely jump around.

This storm that is now going to miss us should have been dealt with better. I just thought it was taking aim on us. I knew it was extremely small and suspect. So, it was probably worth no more than a 30% chance. In this instance, then, I made a mistake. But in general we usually don't jump around.

It is frustrating but this pattern is just a very bad one. And, I am beginning to seriously worry about a dry spring and drought. At the same time I feel the second half of spring will have some potential to get wet. But, we'll see?

Gary

Posted by: Bill at February 6, 2006 10:17 PM

*********
well, we will take any snow tonight, and box it up and ship it your way.. (thou you might have to re-freeze it to get it to look like snow again)

Glen,

Let me know if you get any snow in Trenton, but the chance is slim.

Gary

Posted by: Glen Briggs at February 7, 2006 5:32 AM

 
 

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