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Snow is in the forecast
It is early Monday morning and as I am writing the weather pattern continues to evolve into the high amplitude pattern. Our flow aloft will be coming straight out of the north by Tuesday into Wednesday. A disturbance has come over the west coast ridge and is developing and turning our way. This type of storm can produce 2 to 3 inches of snow in a narrow path, but will it hold together and where will it track? Look below at the precipitation forecasted by the 06z run of the GFS. It shows .25" to .40" of melted down totals over our area, but is likely a bit overdone. This would translate well into that 2" to 3" range, but it would be a 70 to 100 mile wide swath that gets most of the accumulation. A slightly further west track and we would get a few flurries. A little bit weaker and more disorganized and we would get only flurries as well. So, this will have to be monitored closely. I hate it when forecasts come out saying that it is too dry for snow to develop. It all depends on the lifting of the critical layer. If it is forced upwards the little bit of moisture available can produce significant snowfall.
Click above to enlarge (showing total precipitation for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning)
Let's see what the trend is as we go through today. New data is always coming in. The NAM model only has a dusting, as of the 06z data, so we will keep tracking it. I am hoping for at least one inch of snow.
And, yesterday was our first day below average. It was 2.5 degrees below average. This is just the beginning. We likely have many more cold days ahead. The Arctic front due on Friday looks quite strong.
Gary
Posted by at February 6, 2006 7:53 AM
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Bring on the SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sandy,
The latest data almost completely takes the snow out. Hopefully it will trend back.
Gary
Posted by: Sandy S at February 6, 2006 3:39 PM
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Gary,
I am concerned that the big cold surge coming this weekend will not last very long. The models want to warm things up again after next weekend. Hopefully things will stay colder and turn stormier.
Devin
Devin,
The latest data has completely backed off on the late week cold surge. But, it has it stormier and cold next week. We keep pushing it off. I am concerned.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at February 6, 2006 4:39 PM
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Gary, as a snow lover and lifelong Kansas City resident, I think I'm about to give up on us getting snow. The winter started off with such promise given our big snow in December. What a dud since though. Are you sticking to your revised forecast of 26"?
Jay Coffelt
Jay,
There is a chance we have seen our last snow of the season. We should know a lot more within two weeks. The window of opportunity stays open into the first week of April. But, it is sad that we didn't get a winter storm during winter again!
Gary
Posted by: Jay Coffelt at February 6, 2006 8:13 PM
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