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Snow tonight?
There has been a strong trend on the computer models indicating the potential for some snow this Friday night. Below you can see the 06z (midnight) run of the NAM. This is the precipitation forecast for tonight. It produces about .03" near Liberty to .08" near Lawrence, and over 1/10" around Ottawa. This is the liquid amounts. With the airmass being so cold we would likely see 20 to 1 ratios. So, this would translate into about 1/2" in Liberty and over 2" further south.
So, will this happen. We are actually going into the right rear quadrant of a strong jet stream lifting out to our northeast. This places us in a favorable quadrant for lifting the atmosphere. Moisture increasing from the Pacific will combine with this lifting area and this raises my confidence level that it will snow tonight. At the same time, we are sort of on the edge. Any further south on this area of lifting and we could get nothing, but a bit further north we would see 2 or 3 inches, which is what one of our computer models does show. Hopefully this trend will continue as I really want it to be a beautiful white in the morning. It will be close. We will update you on this trend tonight at 5 and 6 PM. And, this morning as the new data comes out.
Posted by at February 17, 2006 7:21 AM
Hi Gary
Just wondering if the storm for the weekend is supposed to amplify? What are the temps looking like for this storm. Do you have any idea on what it could do at this time? I'll talk to you later. John
John,
There is always next winter.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at February 17, 2006 2:59 PM
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Why are you the only one calling for snow, don't you all look at the same stuff.
Bud,
We were the only ones going for snow, and we are likely wrong. It is snowing aloft and I was fooled by the potential of one computer model. I should never have bought it.
Usually when we are the only ones we end up right, but this time I can't claim a victory. Instead we are big losers and I am sorry.
Gary
Posted by: Bud at February 17, 2006 5:45 PM
Hi Gary - Will we ever again have INTERESTING weather - I really despair - I suppose that living on the east coast is where the action is, even the west coast on occasion - here, it it boring, boring, boring for months on end... YAWN... and we don't even have Palm Trees like Arizona!!!
Dog
Storm Dog,
Very sad tonight. I thought we would get at least .02" or so, but instead, at least so far, nothing.
I blew the forecast.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at February 17, 2006 5:52 PM
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Don't worry, Gary! Everyone still knows you're the best with winter forecasts! I know how hard it is to forecast winter precip. Just know that in a local college meteorology class, the teacher is telling the students that you're the most accurate in Kansas City. I have found out that he is right! No one is perfect, and that's obvious. But you're still the best!
Beth:
Wow, that is great to hear! Thank you for blogging with us!
Posted by: Beth at February 18, 2006 12:30 AM
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