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 February 1, 2006

The cold part of our pattern is coming!

Scroll down below to see some pictures from my Weather Pattern Theory presentation (they are in Jamie's blog entry)

Here are my weather thoughts today....

Below is the 168 hour GFS 500 mb flow. This is valid one week from this morning. A very strong ridge is becoming established near the west coast of the United States and this will place us in north to northwest flow aloft. Cold air will be forced southward and it will be a nearly consistant pattern for the next two weeks. What does this mean for us? It means it will be much colder, but until something changes it will be dry. There is one chance of snow or something showing up for Sunday night into early Monday. This is actually related to the storm that gave us our big snow in December. We have to watch it closely, but at this moment it seems MUCH weaker than that December storm. This could change. It also isn't as cold as it was when this storm approached us in December. After this passes I see chances of a few snow showers at times, but unless the flow backs into the Pacific northwest we could be very dry and boring during this cold wave.

gfs_500_168s.gif


I am asking on the air tonight, "Do you still want it to snow?". I have dinner on the line with David Lawrence. I said that 70 to 75% of the people in and around Kansas City want it to snow. I will show the results on the 10 PM newscast tonight and then talk about it with David Lawrence tomorrow morning on 106.5.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at February 1, 2006 11:04 AM

Comments

***************
LET IT SNOW!!! If we have to put up with the cold we might as well have something to play in. Of course we then have to put up with cleaning the mess it creates but you have to take the bad with the good. All I ask is that if it does snow may it be over 5 inches and sticky.

JIM:
I just got back from my lunch break, and I was bombarded with people telling me they wanted it to snow! I was wondering what had gotten into the water, but then I realized Gary had specificly ASKED for that info! :)
Thanks for your vote,
Jamie

Posted by: Jim Yates at February 1, 2006 1:20 PM

****************
LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IS SNOW!!!! AND MAY THE INSECTS DIE TOO!!!! HEE HEE!
WE LOOK FORWARD TO WHAT YOU ALL HAVE TO SAY OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

MONICA

Monica:
Thank you so much! Be sure to watch for our poll results tonight at 10pm! We are getting a good response!
Jamie

Posted by: Monica Sabine at February 1, 2006 2:18 PM

******************
We need it to get cold or the plants and trees will get fooled. The worst thing that could happen is for the trees to bud and then get an ice storm in late February or early March (although it's not in the forecast now, but it's happened before)
Gary B.

GARY:
I have already seen flowers trying to come up in my neighborhood!
Jamie

Posted by: Gary B. at February 1, 2006 3:34 PM

******************
MORE SNOW! However, with the huge ridge of high pressure expected to build along the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada next week moisture does not look good. It looks like CROSS-POLAR flow will set up over Canada with Siberian air driven bodily southward over Canada and into the U.S. over time because of the strong Ridge near the West Coast. It would be very cold if there was snow on the ground! Hopefully soon.

Devin Kellerman

DEVIN:
It will turn colder soon. We are tracking a storm for Sunday night/Monday that will bring the chance of snow. This storm is actually the same storm that DID bring snow back in December. We will have to wait and see how it sets up, though.
Jamie

Posted by: Devin Kellerman at February 1, 2006 3:43 PM

********************
Just wanting to say I want it to snow all the time. Cant wait for the cold so I can rub it in the faces of my friends at school.

Daniel:
Your friends don't want it to snow? I thought all kids wanted it to snow so they could have a snow day! :)
Jamie

Posted by: Daniel at February 1, 2006 4:48 PM

******************
Sorry for the spam but was wondering if you could send me a Email of the links for the GFS model you show on the blog. Thanks

DANIEL:
Check your email.
Jamie

Posted by: Daniel at February 1, 2006 4:51 PM

*****************
Heck ya I want it to snow! My boys and I have been able to go sledding (hardly) for two years! Bring us some snoe Gary:)

COACH:
Most of the responses we received are from people like you... who WANT the snow!! And I am sure you speak for every school kid in the area! :)
Jamie

Posted by: Coach at February 1, 2006 5:15 PM

*******************
I agree with what the folks before me have said. Let it snow!!! My husband is from Wisconsin and we both love snow. We have talked before on many occasions that it seems to both of us that we had alot more snow storms when we were growing up. I am from a small town east of Kirksville, MO and I remember when I was in first grade or kindergarten it was my birthday (April 10th) and we had a huge blizzard. We were snowed in for a few days. I can't remember having anything like that in a LONG time. We always watch Gary and appreciate how hard he and all of you work. Thanks so much.

DEB:
Thanks for posting! I have heard a lot of people say they remember more snow as kids than as adults. Very interesting! I grew up in Ohio, and I remember a LOT of snow in the mid-late 90s. And last year was really snowy there... but of course not HERE in KC!! The cold is coming, and the groundhog DID see his shadow today... so winter's not over yet :)
Jamie

Posted by: Deb at February 1, 2006 5:45 PM

***************
Yes I would love for it to snow. I really enjoyed the last snow we got. Of course, I don't have to get up and go to work in it. But it is so pretty. I am 52.

Vickie:
I think that's why I *don't* want it to snow a lot... because I hate driving in it! But it certainly is pretty! Thank you for voting!
Jamie

Posted by: Vickie at February 1, 2006 6:32 PM

****************
I've been asking for snow for a long time. LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW. A big winter storm. Not a dusting.

Ann:
It certainly has been a boring winter! But at least it has been *comfortable*. Let's see what happens over the next several days... cold and maybe a little snow, too.
Jamie

Posted by: Ann at February 1, 2006 7:07 PM

*************
I vote for NO more snow

Kottwitz:
I vote the same! But we are in the minority!
Jamie

Posted by: kottwitz at February 1, 2006 7:28 PM

***************
LET IT SNOW OR ICE OR BLIZZARD

Snow Contractor:
A lot of you want the same thing... hang in there!
Jamie

Posted by: SNOW CONTRACTOR at February 1, 2006 9:21 PM

*******************
Greetings all:

With two months of meagre precipitation, and February looking to remain quite dry as well (see the latest GFS - vortex over Great Lakes, ridge over the west, no moisture with Gulf cut-off), I find myself wondering whether it is too early to hear the word "drought" in the air. When I was in college in the 1970s, weather buffs and chasers came to know that often a winter with the Gulf cut-off could translate into a dry Spring, at least the early part of that season. Therefore, I think the first part of Spring (March, April and part of May) will continue the droughty conditions (not good for farmers, certainly). The key to avoiding a complete and lengthening drought will be what happens to our weather after that - continued dry, or becoming quite wet, as can happen sometimes late May/June.

Nevertheless, I think that chances for significant snow look rather miserable as of tonights progs - or any precip for that matter. The YAWNS will continue, with increasing heating bills - oh joy!!! Hope I am not proven correct.

Later,
Dog

Posted by: stormdog at February 1, 2006 9:27 PM

***********************
Gary-

Looks like you will be right once again, as most meteorologists are now calling for a cold spell to set in next weekend and last at least through the 15 day period. Do you think Kansas City will see much below or even record temperatures in the month of February? What about the Ohio Valley area? The forecasts appear to have them even colder than us! How long do you see the cold lasting?

Marcus
Louisburg

Posted by: Marcus at February 1, 2006 10:26 PM

************
PLEASE let it snow. We are already being invaded by ants again, and I think my perennials are really confused.

JO:
Thanks for voting! We will be turning colder soon, and we're even watching a chance of snow late this weekend.
Jamie

Posted by: Jo at February 2, 2006 5:56 AM

***************
let it snow, we want to go sledding again

Diane,
Thank you for your vote! We found that most people do want it to snow!

Posted by: Diane Kelly at February 2, 2006 8:25 AM

****************
Sorry for the late post, I know the results are already in but...LET IT SNOW. I miss being in Alaska and the one winter my family saw that resembled a traditional Alaskan winter, I was deployed to Afghanistan and missed it...figures lol. I miss the snow and one snowstorm a season is not enough.

MIKE:
Thanks for your vote... better late than never! And you are with the majority... it seems most of you DO want it to snow! No doubt about it, it's getting colder. Let's see how things set up for Sunday night... the storm is pretty disorganized... but we'll see...
Jamie

Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at February 2, 2006 10:24 AM

***************
Hi! Gary,
I sure hope it does snow again before winter is over. I'm glad you are having everyone vote. I hope the vote goes the way you want. I know there would be a lot of happy people if it does. Thank You for keeping us informed.

LISA:
Most of the votes are FOR snow, just like yours! That is what Gary predicted! :) We have a chance of snow Sunday night... stay tuned!
Jamie

Posted by: Lisa at February 2, 2006 11:05 AM

*****************
Hey, Thank you very much, and yes they want it to snow but they kept saying it wasnt going to get cold and I told them it would thanks to the NBCACTIONNEWS weather team. Thanks again.

DANIEL:
No problem! :)
Jamie

Posted by: Daniel at February 2, 2006 6:26 PM

**************
I enjoyed the forecast on February 2 where Gary described about the new ESP. what are the new graphics is that part of the system too?

MICHAEL:
ESP is going to be a wonderful tool for us to use in forecasting and during severe weather. We are all very excited about it! The new graphics are not a part of ESP... they are just new graphics! :) What do you think?
Jamie

Posted by: Michael at February 2, 2006 10:25 PM

*******************
Congrats on getting the new computer program ESP. You guys must love having it now. I hope we get some snow!!! :) ,John

JOHN:
ESP is amazing. It is going to change the way we cover severe weather. It will make it easier for US to tell the weather story... and easier for YOU to understand it. Not only that, but it also has top-of-the-line storm tracking capabilities that no other station has! In fact, we are one of only a handful of stations in the NATION to have this new technology!!
Jamie

Posted by: John Moon III at February 2, 2006 10:38 PM

********************
Good evening!
YES, YES and YES for more snow and lots of it too! It's only February for goodness sake! My tulips are 3 inches high and the mums are coming back! It's way too soon!!

JENNIFER:
Thanks for your vote! There is a chance of snow in the forecast for Sunday night/Monday! We'll continue to watch it, and keep you updated!
Jamie

Posted by: jennifer at February 2, 2006 10:45 PM

**************
Hey Gary I really like the new ESP and all of the new and brighter graphics bigger numbers and extended day forcast.You all keep up the great work!!! Ralph

RALPH:
So glad to hear you like the new graphics! We like them too, and we are very excited about ESP!!
Jamie

Posted by: ralph garcia at February 3, 2006 8:41 AM

***************
I like the new graphics. I tell all my friends, family, and Co-workers that I get my weather from NBC Action news because it is alot more accurate than other stations.

For someone that wants to get more involved in meteorolgy what would you suggest?

MICHAEL:
Thank you so much for your compliments! We have the BEST viewers!! :)

As for meteorology... I am not sure of your age... but if you are still in school, concentrate on MATH and SCIENCE. If you are out of school... try attending one of the severe storms workshops. You can learn about severe weather there, and meet people with your same interest. And THEY may have ideas of other things you can do! Here is the link for the schedule:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/safety/outreach.php

Hope that helps you!
Jamie

Posted by: Michael at February 4, 2006 10:22 PM

***************
Yes that was very helpful Jamie thank you for the link. I would also like to read the paper about Gary's theory as well.

MICHAEL:
Glad I could help you! Gary hasn't actually published his weather pattern theory yet, but you can be sure we'll let you know if he does! And you can always find out more right here on the blog, as he discusses it regularly!
Jamie

Posted by: Michael at February 4, 2006 10:31 PM

 
 

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