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The same pattern
Unfortunately we continue to cycle through this horrible weather pattern. I am now angry with Mother Nature and it isn't good to be mad at her. We are literally going through the same pattern that occurred during December. And, we know what is likely to happen next. So, if it is going to snow it better happen soon. The high amplitude pattern is still likely for another 7 to 10 days, or perhaps a bit longer, then the Pacific jet will likely break back through the west coast. This could mean our realisitic chances for a snow storm the rest of the winter could lie in what happens during the next dozen days. Let's call it a dozen days of potential. After this there will likely be some storm systems with rain, but the threat of snow would be diminished considerably. So, our window of opportunity for snow lovers may be closing soon.
Look, above, how close the snow came to us yesterday. The area of snow just east and northeast was just flurries to a dusting. But from central Missouri to St. Louis it was a small snowstorm with up to 5 inches falling.
The latest trend in the models is for a new ridge aloft to develop off the west coast. This could be the last major amplification for a while. Let's see how this evolves. When it happened in December we did get one last cold shot and a small snow event around December 17th. But, then it warmed up towards the end of December and we know what happened in January. Remember we are likely in this 60 to 62 day cycle. The cold part of the pattern that occurred 60 days or so ago lasted until just before Christmas. So, the dozen days of potential lie ahead. There is slim hope for winter weather lovers.
Our forecast for the winter we issued November 10th has been almost perfect. We thought there would be a very warm winter with perhaps one or two Arctic outbreaks. And, I stated that this could be the lowest seasonal snowfall total in our history. Well, take out the freaky December snowstorm and we are sitting at about 3 inches this season. I updated the winter forecast when the cold part of the cycle showed up. And, it has returned, but this time with NO SNOW, so far.
Gary
Posted by at February 9, 2006 6:39 AM
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This is great! I don't know why everyone is so down? Just means we can get the golf clubs out sooner!
JON:
Great attitude! :) I am sure many have already been golfing this year, as we started off so mild. We have some cold periods coming up... but it definitely hasn't felt much like winter this year...
Jamie
Posted by: Jon Mitchell at February 9, 2006 8:33 AM
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I'm LOVING it! However, we are in serious need of some type of precip. I am definately going to start watering new shrub and tree plantings.
Going into Spring this dry could be serious!
Ron,
Hopefully when the jet stream begins weakening and storm systems slow down the second half of spring could get wet.
Gary
Posted by: Ron at February 9, 2006 10:20 AM
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I, unfortunately, am afraid this boring extremely dry pattern could turn into yet another drought - seems like out of the last 5 years I have been up in KC, about 4 of those have been more or less berefit of moisture - I wonder is this is the norm, is it global warming, or just part of the overally long-term pattern of this area? Sure is boring - let's all go watch hair clippings fall at the barbers!!! Oh Boy!!!
Cheers,
Dog
Storm Dog,
Some potential is there for some rain or snow, and I am leaning towards a wet second half of spring. Let's see what happens.
Gary
Posted by: stormdog at February 9, 2006 5:10 PM
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Hey Gary just seen your 10 o'clock weather forecast and seen that it looks like the snow could get a little bit heavier south of the metro. Does it look like any accum. snows here in Appleton City Saturday.
Daniel,
There is a chance of a dusting, and that is a stretch. Maybe later next week.
Gary
Posted by: Daniel at February 9, 2006 10:24 PM
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