« March Outlook & Crop Concerns | Main | Warming »

Warmer and dry & Afternoon fire update!

It is FRIDAY! A lot is going on with the weather pattern. First of all we are just cycling through the EXACT same pattern that set up between October 10th and November 10th. La Nina started and perhaps ended during the winter and, as expected according to my theory, had almost no obvious impact on the pattern. I still believe that La Nina, El Nino, PDO, MJO, and other ocean temperature anomalies and oscillations may influence the pattern and likely do, but the pattern is created and controlled by something much bigger that has yet to be discovered. I really believe this, but this is just part of my theory. My weather pattern theory is likely a signficant discovery, but I still have no idea what causes it. It is interesting that La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific waters, did likely begin, but the latest data has it switching back to neutral conditions or a warming, which is El Nino. Either way it only influences the pattern, it doesn't change or create anything, at least not by my observations over the past 20 years.

Now, let's look ahead to the next few days. The part of the pattern and cycle that brought us the warmest January ever is now arriving. With this part of the pattern we had many small storm systems that came through dry with big pressure changes at the surface. And, there were two fairly significant storm systems that occurred and I believe they will be repeating during the next month or so before the cold part of our pattern returns sometime in April. So, it will rain in March but will it be enough? I hope so because with these warmer temperatures will come a high fire danger amongst other problems, but at the same time it will feel pretty good.

Below is the surface map forecasted by the overnight GFS model. It has support from every other computer model I looked at so confidence is high. Notice the surface low over South Dakota. This will place us in a very warm south flow. If there is no low overcast, which is possible, but unlikely, then we may make a run at 80 degrees Tuesday. A cold front would move through by Wednesday. Our forecast has been 30 degrees warmer than other forecasts, but I am certain that we will be quite close to the 74 we have forecasted for next Tuesday.


Click map to enlarge

Now, look below again. This map shows the upper level flow for next Friday night. A deep trough is likely to drop into the southwest and then kick out into the plains. Copious amounts of low level moisture would be forced up into our region if the trough deepens to our west like it is showing. Again, there is support from just about every other computer model out there. But, will everything come together for rain next weekend? It will, but will it be here? We will just have to wait and see, but the GFS 240 hour 60 hour precipitation shows a lot of rain. I hope so, we need it. More later. Have a great weekend.
Gary

Click map to enlarge

*************************************************************************
Hi there, it's Jamie writing... I just wanted to update you on the FIRE situation. WARM, WINDY and DRY conditions are causing problems today!!

Also... I am doing a story on how warm/dry it's been... who's benefiting... who's suffering. It is supposed to air during our 5pm news. It's pretty interesting... try to catch it if you can! :)
Jamie

Posted by at February 24, 2006 6:55 AM

Comments

Posted by: Tom at February 25, 2006 11:00 AM