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Wild temperature swings
The temperatures are a bit out of control the past two days. Yesterday we went from 17 for the low at KCI to a high of 62 degrees. This is a 45 degree warm up. In Salina, KS it went from 14 for a low to 71 degrees which is a 57 degree diurnal range. WOW!
Now, an Arctic front is developing over southern Canada and will begin oozing our way. It is still this year's version of an Arctic front and is very strange. We will get the first surge with a wind shift Wednesday, but the coldest air will be held up until Thursday afternoon or evening when a surface low moves by to our south. There is a chance of some precipitation, mostly very light. And, will it be below freezing? I am not sure at this point. By the time the temperatures start dropping significantly the precipitation may be just about over. This is one thing we will be monitoring. The most likely area to receive snow would be across Nebraska, Iowa, into Wisconsin.
Then, the cold air settles in and another storm develops near the west coast. How this storm develops and moves out will decide if we get any winter precipitation late in the weekend into early next week. There is a very strong temperature contrast developing at the surface and 850 mb levels. The 850 mb level is roughly 5,000 feet up. Below you can see the strange trough in the west and the set up at 850 mb for Sunday morning. We are about -12 Celsius. It is +12 C near San Antonio. If the storm can hold together then the warm moist air will be forced northward and we would end up with a snowstorm Sunday into Monday. But, there are a lot of questions on how this storm will develop, hold together, and where it will track. I am rooting it on, but it is very frustrating as winter will likely fade away in the next couple of weeks. This may be our last opportunity of the season for snowfall.
Click above to enlarge
This last twist in our winter weather pattern is almost identical to what happened in December. What happens next? A complete deamplification of the pattern and we will likely lose the Arctic air within 10 days. This doesn't mean a winter storm can't form in March. The next part of the pattern will get flat, but then a series of stronger storms could affect us during March. Hopefully it will at least rain, otherwise we are going to get extremely dry.
Gary
Posted by at February 14, 2006 11:47 AM
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I'm definitely crossing my fingers for some more snow. I moved from California to here (Independence) back in '93, and one of my favorite things about moving was finally being in a place where it snowed in the winter and we had cool thunderstorms in the summer. It's too bad the snow has kinda let up a bit over the past few winters.
Anyway, just wanted to say that I've been watching you on TV ever since I moved here in '93, and followed you when you switched stations, 'cause I think you're the best meteorologist on TV. I'm gonna miss your forecasts when I move to Branson next year; I'll still watch this blog every day, though! :-D
Oh, yeah, just saw and picked up the new issue of Paw Prints with you and the gorgeous Windy and Stormy on the front. Great article; I'm glad Windy's doing so well for her age--it's amazing! But then, she's an amazing dog!
Sincerely,
R. Joy Helvie
Joy,
Thank you for the kind comments. The Paw Prints article really is touching.
The storm for early next week has a lot of problems to overcome. Hopefully it will all come together.
Gary
Posted by: Joy at February 14, 2006 1:21 PM
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Hello Gary,
The storm moving in on Thursday, you say either rain or freezing rain, if we get freezing rain is it going to be a big deal with ice like a ice storm or anything like that, thanks for your time!!!
Anna
ANNA:
The storm for Thursday is not amounting to much. Maybe some drizzle... will it even be freezing drizzle? It does not look like the cold air will be in place while the moisture is here. But we have to pay very close attention to it, as it is pretty close!
Posted by: Anna at February 14, 2006 6:17 PM
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Hey Gary and Jamie...
Gotta tell you, we're all excited about the next week. We're hoping for some action. I have a question regarding Spring. Do you think that this dry spell is going to spill into the Spring? Historically speaking does a dry winter pattern denote a dry Spring?
Also, I have a question regarding tornados in general. It seems that for the most part, a good percentage of tornados form in areas that are not densely populated. Could this be because areas that are densely populated have larger buildings and these buildings prevent winds from circulating?
thanks
jennifer
JENNIFER:
Thanks for posting! It's definitely turning colder... and this morning we have some freezing drizzle and light freezing rain around. Nothing is accumulating thus far, as temps are RIGHT at freezing. But we'll start to fall through the afternoon... as the precip shuts off.
As for the spring... according to Gary's theory, our weather pattern will keep cycling. We will have to see if we can tap into some moisture as temperatures warm. This is possible... and if it happens... we could be in for a wild weather ride!
On the subject of tornadoes... buildings do NOT help prevent them. The reason we hear about more tornadoes in rural areas... is because there ARE more rural areas! Does that make sense?
Jamie
Posted by: Jennifer at February 14, 2006 9:06 PM
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Gary,
Nothing to do with winter but had a question. My wife and I watch you at 5 and 6 and find it interesting the stories that are on right before you. Some of them are really off the wall. Have you noticed that? I was just wondering what was the wildest story you have ever had to follow in your opinion?
Thanks
Leonard
LEONARD:
Nothing comes to mind, but there are so many weird things that come on right before weather. The producers usually try to put a lighter story in this slot, so it doesn't go from death and destruction to a happy chat before weather.
I do remember one time I was interviewing a doctor on a show years ago, and the doctor was so nervous that while I was talking for him... he accidently pushed the button on his chair and it lowered really fast on the air. It was pretty embarassing for him as he sank behind the desk!
Gary
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While we're talking about embarassing TV moments... I thought I would throw one in...
I was anchoring the morning weather at my station in Charleston, West Virginia... and I literally ROLLED off the set. Here is what happened...
You had to go up 3 or 4 steps to get on the set... and the chairs we had were on WHEELS... you can see what's coming here!! :)
After a chat with the anchors, one of them playfully pushed me, and went a little too far as one of the wheels of my chair caught the top step... I started going down, down, down... live on the air!
The same anchor that pushed me had pretty quick reflexes, though, and she reached out and grabbed my arm... suspending me mid-decent down the steps. A very akward position, but I am glad I didn't go all the way down!!
Jamie
Posted by: Leonard at February 15, 2006 5:22 AM
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I've given up on snow here and am headed out to Colorado to play in their snow - what does the weather look like from here to Denver on Friday night/
Saturday morning?
Thanks
Peggy
PEGGY:
It looks fine leaving KC and fine across Kansas... but once you get into Colorado... you might run into some problems. There could be some snow showers. It doesn't look like a HUGE amount of accumulating snow, though.
Travel safe,
Jamie
Posted by: Peggy Kupfer at February 15, 2006 9:38 PM
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