KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Will it stay dry? Next week is looking colder

It is early Wednesday morning, colder air is moving in. Light snow has missed us to the east and we are getting drier and drier. This morning there have been a few sprinkles and flurries in the area. But, nothing more than a trace.

So, has it been a very dry season? YES! I just did an anlalysis of our precipitation data since November 1st. The results.......we are set up for a bad fire season this March and April if it gets windy. Look at the data below:

As you can see we average 5.54" of melted down precipitation. The picture above is of the aftermath of our December snowstorm. A distant memory. You can see that KCI is not a good representative of the entire area. Chillicothe has had closer to average, but even you guys are over one inch below. So, it is dry!

It may get very cold next week. We will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through next week. The strongest cold push could come with a weak storm mid next week. Below is the 500 mb flow and the surface map for mid next week. The coldest airmass of this stretch is likely and it would last three or four days if it sets up like this.

Every computer model is showing this for next week. It also fits the cycle we are going through. This could very likely be the finale! A week of cold and some potential for snow during the next 10 days or so, especially towards the end of next week. After this next stretch the cold part of the pattern should break down. This doesn't mean we won't have a couple of chances in March. The other part of the cycle which will be coming still has potential, but it may be tough once we lose the cold air at the end of the month.

I opened my issue of Weatherwise last night and--lo and behold--there was a picture of our own Gary Lezak prominently displayed in an article for the certification of weather forcasters! First, congratulations on being in such an illustrious publication. Second, are the changes in the certifications listed in the article going to affect you at all? Now, in response to your blog here, I can tell you the further east you go, the drier it becomes. I'm noticing more and more water loss in stream beds and ponds around our area of west-central Missouri. I don't think we've even met the 1.86 inches Pleasant Hill received (unfortunately I don't have an accurate measure). I would definitely say that if we are not currently in a drought (we're right on the boarder as defined by NOAA) we are on our way to entering one.

MIKE:
Yes, another blogger also saw Gary in Weatherwise, and pointed it out to us! Pretty cool, huh? :)

I am not sure what certifications the article talks about, as I don't have it in front of me... but if it has to do with the AMS Seal changes... here is the deal:
We keep our AMS Seals, but if we want to *upgrade* to the CBM Seal, we will have to take an additional written exam. You can read more about it here:
http://www.ametsoc.org/amscert/index2.html#cbm

I hope I answered your question... let me know if the article is talking about something else :)
Jamie

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Hello Gary,
I was wondering what your prediction is for the rest of this winter as far as snow fall. How many snow events do you see us having, we'll it be an early spring?, Thanks for your time,
ANNA

Anna,

Our last snow last year was February 8th, yesterday. So, this year could be worse as we see absolutely no chances showing up. This is just a dry weather pattern for us.

Gary