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Damage Reports

As Gary stated below... I am posting some info on damage from the thunderstorms in our region yesterday. Here is the preliminary report from the Severe Storms Prediction Center:

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And here is the link to the text, describing the damage reports. Just scroll down beneath the graphic:
SPC

Expect a nice quiet day today! We will have to watch some wrap-around clouds that will try to come in from the North. Some of our northern counties will have to deal with that... but for the southern part of the viewing area, it looks like we should continue to see plenty of sunshine! Highs should be in the lower to mid 60s today, with 70s on the way for the weekend.

And AS temperatures rise this weekend, a storm approaches! We could be in for another round of severe storms Saturday night and/or Sunday. We will have to see how it sets up, but here is this morning's NAM...

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It would be nice to have a longer period between these events... but we will be here tracking any severe storms!!!
Happy TGIF!!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:50 AM | Comments (7)

This is remarkable

Good morning! It is Friday morning and yesterday was sort of a blur. The past three weeks have been one of the most fascinating stretches of weather in our history, I believe. It is one thing to have one major severe weather outbreak in March, but to have two and both producing tornadoes and widespread severe weather is phenomenal. And, we may be at only the beginning of a very wild severe weather season.

I had some damage at my house yesterday evening from that developing line of intense thunderstorms. Part of my roof is in the yard, just a few shingles, but it is damage. Fortunately it wasn't anymore than this. Poor Stormy experienced it all as Windy was likely sleeping.

Watch out for potential severe weather Saturday night or Sunday. There could be a violent MCS near by Sunday morning. More on this later today.

Have a great Friday. Jamie will be adding some severe weather graphics to this later this morning.

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (8)

Severe Weather Outbreak possible today

Click the picture to enlarge

The Storm Prediction Center has us in the bullseye for severe weather today. Let's see how it sets up, but it appears we will have an outbreak of severe thunderstorms later today.

If these thunderstorms form and you see anything significant please call in and help us out with your report. Our newsline number is 816-932-4141. If it is really bad then you can help us on the air with your report.

Hopefully this will not materialize this afternoon, but it is looking like it will. More later.

Gary

Posted by at 7:02 AM | Comments (29)

Severe thunderstorm potential

New data is now trickling in tonight. There has been strong consistancy in the models with the set up for Thursday. More on this below. Thank you for participating in the blog question from yesterday. I posted all of the comments, although there are a few more to go through tonight. We will process all of your ideas and comments. And, all of the other feedback as well from every direction. Now, back to the potential severe weather outbreak.

Above is the upper level wind forecast by the GFS for 6 PM Thursday. The strongest winds show up in the shade of blue. This places Kansas City on the left front quadrant of this jet streak. This will provide tremendous lifting near the dry line by late in the day.

Just like on March 12th, there is no cap. So, it will be easy for thunderstorms to be generated which could limit the potential for supercells, but it won't rule it out. Let's see how this sets up. We will have to see how high the dew points get, and where the upper level vort max tracks. There are many factors to consider, but there is still a strong possibility of a severe weather outbreak on Thursday afternoon and evening across our region. Many things can still go wrong so let's see how it sets up.

Gary

Posted by at 7:47 PM | Comments (11)

Severe weather and coverage

Ingredients are coming together for severe weather Thursday. We will go into all of the parameters on Tuesday evening. In the mean time I have a question for you. How should we cover severe weather? On March 12th we must have received 500 emails and comments. There seems to be no middle ground. Either you value the continuous coverage we provide, or you condemn it. What do you see as the best way to cover a serious severe weather situation? For example: A line of severe thunderstorms is developing to our west and we are under a tornado watch. It is now moving into the Lawrence area and tornado warnings are issued. How should we handle this? Keep in mind if we are not in coverage and someone else is we get emails saying "you don't know what is going on", when you know we do. O.K. the debate is on.

And, more later on my vacation. It was a good, relaxing one. And, I did present my weather pattern theory to the Director of Meteorology of the University of Oklahoma. He gave me some great advice and some interesting ideas on how to take my theory further. More on this in the coming weeks. By the way, this next storm fits perfectly with the pattern we are cycling through.

Gary

Posted by at 8:17 PM | Comments (64)

Today's clouds... a sign of things to come!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 60
LOW: 33

What a nice weekend! Today we reached highs near 60 degrees. It was a little windy, but it sure felt nice! We started off the day with plenty of sunshine... and then high clouds started moving in. What is going on? These clouds moved in ahead of our next storm. You can see it this late afternoon over WY/CO:

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That storm will drag a weak cold front through us Monday... and ahead of it (tonight & Monday morning)... we have a good chance of scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder! We are not expecting severe weather with this system... that will come later in the week.

The SPC is using product called the "Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlooks". This will illustrate a general region that could experience severe weather a week or so down the road. We are included in the possible severe event, which would be this coming Thursday:

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Forecasting that far out into the future will definitely bring about error... but it gives you a good idea of what could happen. The timing or exact location of storms may shift... but it does look like a good chance of severe weather somewhere on Thursday! Here is the surface map, generated by the GFS for Thursday:

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It could get interesting... stay tuned!

Meantime, we will have comfortable temperatures this week... with highs in the 60s Monday/Tuesday... and 70s Wednesday/Thursday! Enjoy! :)

Have a good evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:48 PM | Comments (6)

Warmer, Wind & a Chance of T-Storms

A storm system now entering the northern Rockies will track across the northern plains Sunday night into Monday. As this storm moves east it will affect our area in two ways. First, on Sunday it will lower the surface pressure to our west increasing our winds from the south (see below the forecast surface map for 6 PM Sunday from the NAM model. I drew in the fronts. The blue shading represents winds over 20-25 mph. ). A warm front will move through today with just some clouds as there is little moisture to work with.

Secondly, there will be a chance of scattered showers and T-Storms late tonight into very early Monday morning as the storm system drags a weak cold front through our area. Late tonight there may be just enough moisture for some rain. Rainfall amounts, if any, will likely be .25" or less.

Click to Enlarge

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 9:37 PM

Warmer with a chance of rain!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 43
LOW: 26

Well, yesterday we talked about some clouds that would bisect the viewing area... and sure enough we saw them surge in this afternoon! Areas on the Kansas side saw more sunshine than the Missouri side... and the result... a big temperature gradient across the area! It was in the lower 50s in our southwest viewing area... and only in the upper 30s in the northeast section! So that March sun makes ALL the difference in afternoon highs! You can see the dividing line below on our early evening satellite image:

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Saturday, we will have the same problem... fighting the clouds. Hopefully we can squeeze out a little more sunshine during the afternoon. If that happens, temperatures will go into the upper 40s. If it doesn't happen... expect lower to mid 40s again!

Sunday... things start to change! A warm front will move through, allowing our winds to become southerly again. That will help to usher in much warmer air! You can see what we are expecting to happen on the surface map below:

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We should be close to 60 degrees on Sunday, ahead of that Low. Then, it brings us a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and into Monday! So we slide by with a dry weekend, before the chance of rain returns! And we definitely NEED the rain. We are still "abnormally dry" as you can see below on the latest drought assessment (out yesterday evening):

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Meteorologist Jeff Penner will be with you tomorrow night... and I will be back on Sunday! See you then!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:27 PM | Comments (1)

Three Storm Systems

We currently have our eye on 3 storm systems.

#1: This one is now over the Great Lakes. It will drop southeast and exit the United States this weekend. By the way it is producing a dusting to 2" of snow over Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and much of the Midwest. This means over the last 7 days we have seen a 10"-30" snow storm pass to our north a 1"-4" snow storm pass to our south (last night across southern Kansas and all of Oklahoma), and now this next one to our northeast. This week has been a snow lovers nightmare!

#2: This storm is now just off of the west coast. See below the water vapor imagery for systems #1 and #2. This one will likely track across the northern Plains Sunday-Monday. We may get a few showers/T-Storms from it as it drags a weak front through our area.

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#3: This one is very interesting. It is timed for next Wednesday-Thursday. It has potential to bring us some severe weather. (See map below) This storm fits Gary's 60 day cycle. Do you remember the Excelsior Springs tornado on November 29th? When this storm repeated at the end of January there was a small tornado near Wichita, KS. So, we have to watch this one closely.

Click to Enlarge

Valid Thursday, March 30th.

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 6:26 PM | Comments (4)

Close.... but....

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 42
LOW: 24

Finally... the sunshine returned today! I have really missed it, as it has been a good five days since it's been out! It felt good in the sun this afternoon, but still a little chilly in the shade. Temperatures are running a good 10+ degrees below average still... as the average high this time of year is 57 degrees.

Tonight... radar is looking pretty impressive. Here is what ESP looked like at 7:30pm. You can click on it to link to the current image.

A pretty good snow is falling across southern Kansas, into northern Oklahoma. And would you believe it is also snowing in Texas?? Amaraillo has recieved about an inch of snow... and Winter Weather Advisories and Snow Advisories are in effect for this region.

As we talked about yesterday, this storm will track SOUTH of Kansas City, and weaken as it does so. You can see where it is forecast to move on the NAM 500mb chart below:

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So the most we are getting out of this one is, again, just some cloud cover. MAYBE a flurry in our southern counties. Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy Thursday... with highs in the mid 40s.

Friday, we are still watching an area of cloud cover that will move in from the east. We could have mostly cloudy skies over part of the viewing area, but it does look like clouds will be at least broken over KC. So again, highs in the mid 40s!

I've had a request to post new Mags pictures... and as a proud mom... I will do just that! Here she is after a very exhausting day running in the park:

And here we are together, so you can get an idea of how big she is getting:

Isn't she just soooo cute?? She's really sweet, too! :) Just full of energy!

Now here is an interesting story. Did you hear about the category 5 hurricane that just hit Australia?? This is a pretty good article:

Australia's Cyclone Larry More Powerful Than Hurricane Katrina
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Cyclone Larry, the strongest storm to hit Australia in 30 years, smashed into the Queensland coast today with about 40 percent more force than Hurricane Katrina, said the National Weather Service.

Category 5 storms must have winds of at least 160 miles per hour. The storms are known as typhoons in the Pacific Ocean and hurricanes in the Atlantic.

... and it just keeps getting more and more amazing!!
Hope you are enjoying your evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:29 PM | Comments (3)

What's next?

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 36
LOW: 32

So snow amounts were definitely on the light side around HERE... not the case to our north and west! Here is a look at where the heaviest snow fell:

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Do you believe parts of Nebraska actually got 30 inches of snow??!! Again, had the storm tracked just 100-150 miles farther SOUTH... that would have been OUR snow!! (or at least our viewing area's snowfall!) Metro snow-lovers must feel cheated! ;) We offically got 1" at KCI, with reports of up to 2" north of there.

So what is ahead? Well... first of all... we should see the return of SUNSHINE for Wednesday! Expect a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the mid-40s. There is also another system entering the Plains tomorrow. You can see it on the NAM 500mb below (it is over West Texas):

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Some parts of Western Kansas... that already got a good snowfall... will likely see more out of this system:

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It would be a light snowfall for them... just a few inches. But as that storm heads our way... most of the energy will go to our south. Sooooo we will likely miss out again! We might see a few clouds, but that would be it.

Expect more clouds on Friday, too, as a backdoor cold front moves in! Here is the NAM bringing in the 850mb moisture:

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It looks like Friday will bring the return of colder temperatures, too... with highs only in the 30s under those mostly cloudy skies!

Now can I say how awesome our viewers are? You guys are the best... thank you for all the wonderful comments/emails over the past 24 hours!! We appreciate you so much!! And to those of you who reminded me... I officially changed my last name on the blog! Yeay! :)
Hope you have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:12 PM | Comments (6)

Light snow this morning!

Well, as I am writing I am on vacation. Yesterday wore us out but I would like to make one interesting statement for all of the viewers who think the forecast was a total bust. And, we can never get anything right.

It is snowing as I am writing. Only a dusting but it is snowing. This means that this storm produced widespread rain, sleet, and snow. Don't forget that we had over 40 mph winds yesterday. Can you see that this storm did hit us? It is always amazing to me that people don't see this. We are just judged on the exact amount of snow. I think the NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM does a great job at predicting snowstorms, but sometimes this happens. It is as simple as the storm went further north by about 150 miles which is a small adjustment when you look at the big picture. I am not making excuses, but we did get hit by this storm! Looking back on it there were clear signs as early as 6 AM yesterday morning where I should have realized that the snow part of this storm was clearly missing us. But, even at this point it was too late. We were the first ones to change the forecast by 9 AM to 1 to 2 inches at the most. But, this is a small consolation prize.

Have a great week. The weather pattern is still fascinating and I think you can see that it is starting to produce. On our weather special we made a forecast for 15 inches of rain between now and the end of June. It should be a rather exciting stretch of weather. It is cold now, but we will have some big ups and downs through April.

I will be back on Monday. I am presenting my weather pattern theory to the Director of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma tomorrow. I will let you know how it goes.

Gary

Posted by at 6:55 AM | Comments (23)

Bloggers

Dear NBC ACTION NEWS BLOGGERS,

We have received a record number of comments. I have tried to post each one, but there are a lot more to go through. Jamie, Brett, and Jeff will get to these Tuesday.

This storm has been so disappointing. It is simple. The upper low has tracked northwest of us. I still expect a dusting to an inch early on Tuesday.

Gary

Posted by at 8:24 PM | Comments (9)

It happened again?

I will get to everyones comments later, but it looks like it has happened to us again. The upper low is developing and going through strange transitions to our west. But, we are getting dry slotted. This dry slot should fill and shift east and south through the day. A very strong vort max is rotating around the upper low (see below). This is happening right now. In about 6 hours it will be ejecting out into eastern Kansas and may redevelop a circulation in the upper levels near Kansas City. Where this forms is important. There is a chance we will get no snow if it doesn't come together, but I am expecting 1 or 2 inches. There is also a chance of some convective bands that would form on the back side around midnight as it goes by. So, there is hope, but unbelievably it could be happening to us again. I can't wait for the criticism.

This is like a thunderstorm event now. Who will get the convective bands and how much will fall is a guess at this moment. I will have complete details tonight at 5, 6 and 10 PM. You know I will be doing a complete analysis of this potential. If a new upper low forms and tracks south of us then it will snow and quite a bit. But, at this moment the chance of this happening is slim.

Gary

Posted by at 11:53 AM | Comments (58)

Heaviest snow band

Good morning. It is 4:25 AM and I am awake. The latest data from the midnight runs of the computer models are more impressive and further south. The upper low would likely track south of Kansas City. If it holds together over a foot of snow could accumulate in some spots. But, where will this band line up. Right now we are leaning towards the band of heaviest snow to fall near a St. Joseph to Trenton line. Kansas City would likely see 4 to 8 inches of snow with a sharp cut off south of Kansas City.

The storm goes through a strange transition tonight which complicates this forecast and it won't be cold enough for snow until sunset or later. After the new data comes in around 8:15 or so I will update this blog with our thoughts. This is the type of storm that could dump 20 inches of snow. Where will this place be? Right now I target the Trenton area. Let's see where the storm tracks and let's look at the new data. This is a unique storm that has a mind of its own.

At the very least we are getting a nice soaking before the changeover occurs. This is really helping with the dry ground. So, some good benefits to this storm, but in the end could create some traveling nightmares around the four state region.

8:15 AM Update: The new NAM model has us on the edge. It will depend on the track of the upper low. Unfortunately this storm is not normal by any means. The upper low sort of goes through several transitions. The latest data shows over a foot around Trenton and maybe one inch in Paola. This could be a long and frustrating day, but we'll see.

Gary

Posted by at 4:39 AM | Comments (12)

NEW DATA

Just an update... the new data tonight has our low slightly farther SOUTH... which would up our snowfall amounts to the higher end of the scale!! Here is what the new data says... Brett Anthony will have updates in the morning... and Gary is back in the evening. Remember... the snow won't really even start until Monday evening! Stay tuned!! :)

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 9:50 PM | Comments (3)

Snowfall Forecast

What a stressful forecast!

I've gotten lots of emails/phone calls today... everybody is wondering WHEN this thing is going to happen!! The rain/sleet we saw today was really LIGHT... but that will change tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Rain and sleet will develop and continue through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall, we may go into a period of prolonged SLEET... with some sleet accumulations. THEN tomorrow evening... the switch to snow here in the Metro.

One change in this storm's path... and it will bust. But based on the data we are seeing this afternoon... this is what we are going with right now.

Snowfall Forecast Through Tuesday:

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(There won't be a sharp cut-off between different areas... it would be a gradual transition...)

Keep in mind... in the Metro... we don't change to snow until Monday evening now. So things CAN still change. If the storm track turns farther south, we will likely see the heavier amounts shift down to us here. But right now, this storm is taking aim to our north. We have to watch it CLOSELY, though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jamie

Posted by at 5:12 PM | Comments (9)

Morning Update

Hello, there... and good morining! I bring news of winter weather!

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been posted for Doniphan and Atchison counties in Kansas and for Andrew and Buchanan counties in Missouri. This is in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning.

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to include more of the area, indluding the immediate Metro. You can see a map of the included counties here:

NWS WATCHES & WARNINGS

The track of the storm is still the main thing that will determine how MUCH snow we get.

TODAY... we are not expecting any accumulations. We will see on and off light rain... possibly mixing with snow or sleet at times. Heavier mixed precip should begin tonight and continue into Monday morning. Then the switch-over to snow happens!

Looking at the data this morning... I am forecasting an early prediction of 3 to 6 inches here in the Metro... with 6 to 10 PLUS off to the north... and 1 to 3 inches down to the south. This will probably change!! I will update this through the day, and will try to get a good map grapic to post later.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:45 AM | Comments (9)

WINTER STORM WATCH

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 45
LOW: 36

Well, here we go! On our way through the last storm of the winter season! This storm will straddle seasons, though, as Spring offically begins just after noon on Monday! And the change to spring might just coordinate with a change over to SNOW!! Let me elaborate...

We are still tracking this MAJOR STORM. You can see it on the satellite loop tonight, spinning over souther Nevada. Click the picture below to animate:

The storm is still forecast to slooooowly move our way! Atmospheric temperatures are looking ever so slightly cooler for Sunday. That means it now looks like we'll see some sleet and snow mixing in with our rain. Surface temps will still be just above freezing, so at this point, I am not expecting any major road problems tomorrow. Roads should be just wet.

As we talked about yesterday, the TRACK of this storm is everything when it comes to how much snow we are going to get. And I know that is the big question on everyone's minds! Tonight we went for 6 inches or MORE for our northern counties... and 2 inches or MORE for us here in KC. At this point, I am leaning towards the MORE... but I need more data. Make sure you watch the 10pm newscast!!

Here is the storm placement by the NAM... which takes the storm slightly farther south. A more favorable track for accumulating snow here in KC:

Click to enlarge

Just a slight shift in the storm's track, and it could bust a forecast!! That is why I am stressing out tonight! :) If we follow this model... the change over to all snow would happen just after noon on Monday, yes, JUST in time for spring:

I will be here in the morning to update the situation... during the Today Show... so check back then! As it stands now, our Northern counties are under a WINTER STORM WATCH beginning Sunday night. Here is the link to check our watches/warnings:

NWS WATCHES & WARNINGS

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:15 PM | Comments (2)

A BIG Storm and more March 12 Info

Posted by at 5:22 PM | Comments (9)

Viewer Pictures

A double-dose of blogging today! Scroll down to see Gary's morning blog about our snow chances!

In THIS blog... we share some of our favorite viewer pictures from Sunday's severe weather outbreak.

First, we'll start off with some damage pictures from Lawrence:

John Young sent these in... he lives on the Southwest side of Lawrence. The photos are damage to his house from the storm that hit around 8am on Sunday. This is the same storm that hit KU seveal minutes later. During this storm... it is pretty amazing... the air temperature was in the lower 40s!! The offical word from the NWS in Topeka is that this damage was caused by straightline winds of 70 to 90 mph. It looks pretty impressive!

Below is a picture that comes to us from Columbia, Missouri. Matt Perkins, a Kansas City native sent it in:

Matt goes to MU, and this is actually his roomate's car! He captured the action shot of a large hailstone hitting it... we had many reports of busted-out windows from the hail. The largest report I saw was in excess of four inches! That is softball sized hail!! Overall, there were 201 reports of large hail and/or damaging winds in our viewing area!

Here is another hail picture... this one comes to us from DeSoto, Kansas:

Jim Rubino sent this in... he says they didn't get any damage at his house... but it was the largest hail he has ever seen! Looks like a good three inches across!!

This next picture is truly amazing! It is a funnel cloud in Sedalia around 4pm on Sunday:

This was taken by Shaun Edwards... it went right over his house! The tornado that touched down just south of Sedalia was an F2 on the Fujita Scale. Thanks, Shaun, for sending in your picture!

Now for another hail picture... I just like this one because of the ice cream in the shot! I am a sucker for ice cream, for sure!! :)

Mike & Kristine Batch sent this one in... they took it at their home in Lee’s Summit near Longview Lake. They tell us they got a lot of hail there... most of it was golf ball sized. Thanks for the pictures!!

And one more hail photo... this shows all the different shapes and sizes:

Steve Jorgensen sent it in from Blue Springs... they collected the hail around 9pm. He also says it was the biggest he has seen!

Now for some lightning shots! This first one is cool... you can see the almost-full moon in the upper left. I think it is SO cool the way the lightning illuminates the towering cumulonimbus clouds:

Brian Turner took these around 7:15 pm... looking due east from his home in Overland Park. He says it was beautiful to watch! Here is another from Brian:

Here is a link to recap the severe weather outbreak:
MARCH 12TH TORNADO OUTBREAK

Have a good night!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:50 PM | Comments (2)

Huge snowstorm?

Oh my! Are we about to live through a fantasy snowstorm, or is it another "make believe" snowstorm on the computer models? Above is the forecast precipitation from Sunday through Tuesday night. We have over 2 inches liquid and 1.6" of that is all snow. If the GFS comes through and is correct we would get 20 inches of snow. This has happened before. Back in March 22nd, 23rd 1912 we had a 25 inch snowstorm which is the biggest in Kansas City history.

Why is this happening? A strong high pressure area is building north of the Great Lakes and a cold airmass will gradually settle into areas from Kansas City north and east. A strong storm is dropping into the southwest and closing off. This storm will then slowly move our way. It should provide a long duration precipitation event with rain, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain, and snow. Our ponds should fill up. But then again, it hasn't happened yet.

I am on vacation driving down to Oklahoma to make me weather pattern theory presentation on Friday and Monday. If this storm approaches and becomes more likely then I will be back on Sunday night and fly back down there for the presentation later in the week. But, if it doesn't materialize then I will stay down there Monday for my talk.

Please watch Brett, Jamie, and Jeff the next few days as this storm approaches. I will be in communication with them and we will provide the most accurate forecast for you. Also, pay close attention to the blog as we keep you updated on our thoughts.

Gary

Posted by at 11:17 AM | Comments (12)

Weather Special

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 67 (so far)
LOW: 36

It has been a very nice day... lots of sunshine and temperatures warmed well into the 60s. My husband brought Mags to visit during lunch today, and Gary showed up with Stormy! It was the first time the dogs have seen each other in 2 months... Mags basically jumped all around while Stormy calmly walked around. SO much energy in those labs! :)

We hope you enjoyed our Severe Weather Special that ran last night. We had a lot of fun working on it, and hope you found it informational! We have received a few emails from people who missed the special... and they are wondering if it will be put online. What I am told... we now have a few of the stories up on our webpage. Just go to NBC ACTION WEATHER VIDEO. The stories that are there include the Oskaloosa tornado, safe rooms and storm chasers. Our web producer might add more as the week goes on!

Over the next few days, I am going to post some of the storm pictures we received from viewers. Tonight, Gary and Jeff will blog about the changing weather as we head into the weekend!

Jamie

Posted by at 3:04 PM | Comments (3)

Drought Relief and a Taste of Winter

A cold airmass will settle into the Plains Friday & Saturday, while a large, slow-moving system evolves in the southwest USA. This is a textbook set-up for a broad & prolonged overrunning pattern. This means rich gulf moisture will be thrusted north & west over the cold airmass across Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas & Missouri Friday through Monday. Keep in mind these states are having a pretty serious drought, especially Oklahoma & Texas. Below is a map of the latest data on total rainfall accumulation. This would be a blessing for the parched winter wheat crop as some areas could receive 1" to 1.50"!

Click to Enlarge

Now, not all of this is rain. As the main storm pulls out of the southwest early next week, along & north of the track there could be a snowstorm. At this moment eastern Kansas & western Missouri are in the snow. However, this is still 4-6 days away & we all know how things can change. Upcoming forecasts for the weekend & early next week will be interesting & challenging.

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 9:28 PM | Comments (4)

Amazingly, it is still the same pattern

I leave for Oklahoma later this week to present my weather pattern theory to the University of Oklahoma. I will be showing them my theory, the weather patterns of the past few years and how they cycle, and especially this years pattern which is cycling on about a 60 to 62 day period.

The weather pattern that created our outbreak with the strong jet stream plowing into the southwestern United States and then moving out over the plains states will be repeating roughly 60 days from now give or take a few days. So, watch out in May. Also, look out for a strong storm system which should bring ideal conditions for severe weather between March 29th and April 3rd. And, look for the very cold part of our pattern to repeat sometime during April. Since it will be April it will be interesting to see how much cold air gets down here. Remember the same pattern will be producing different specific results as we go through the next two cycles. But, I would guess that we will at the very least have a very hard late freeze this year.

Don't forget.....Our severe weather special is on tonight at 7:30 PM. It will begin with Jamie, Brett, and myself at the desk showing some video and coverage of Sunday's outbreak. We have a special segments on a spectacular tornado up in Platte County a couple of years ago. Another segment on one of our engineers at NBC Action News who house was destroyed by the May 4th Kansas City, KS tornado. We will look back the spectacular tornado we caught with Skytracker last year and a unique way to go over safety rules. The show will finish off with our forecast for Spring.

Gary

Posted by at 8:16 AM | Comments (17)

March severe weather outbreak

Wow! Was yesterday one of the more dramatic weather days? We all had long days, and I had the unusual pressure of having the 6th Annual Pet Telethon scheduled for 6:30 to 9:30 PM. It was almost too much to take and I don't expect you to understand exactly how it felt. It was one of the toughest days, emotionally, I have had to deal with.

I had talked to Jamie around 9 PM Saturday night. We talked about the likelyhood of large hail as early as 7 AM Sunday. And, then we knew that everything was there for an outbreak but where would the developing area be for thunderstorms? Jamie and I were on the phone at 6:30 AM. We are at a disadvantage on the weekends as we don't have a weekend morning newscast yet. By 9 AM we already had large hail and damage in many spots. Brett was here and Jamie and I were right behind him. We were on almost continuously from that point on.

The pet telethon started at 6:30 PM on 38 the Spot. I helped get it started, then 15 minutes into it a new tornado warning was issued. I had to abandon the telethon and then Jamie, Jeff, and I tracked the tornadic thunderstorms south of Kansas City through the evening hours.

It was an unbelievable set up for severe thunderstorms. A May atmosphere, with a March Jet Stream. There was no cap and thunderstorms kept regenerating near the dry line around Iola.

More later.... Don't forget....OUR SEVERE WEATHER SPECIAL Tuesday night at 7:30 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 9:29 PM | Comments (7)

Evening Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 69
LOW: 41

What a day it has been! Starting this morning... this is now the THIRD round of thunderstorms affecting the area. We have had many storm reports today... most of them have been for large hail. But we've also had tornado reports south and east of Kansas City. You can see the severe weather reports on the map below:

Click to enlarge

And for a complete text list of the reports click here: STORM REPORTS

Probably the most significant report of the day, was a tornado that hit Pettis County, Missouri. We have reports of damage that extend from the southwest part of the county... all the way to the eastern edges. Damage is extensive on the southeast side of Sedalia... with large structure damage, including demolished houses and businesses. Skytracker will have pictures of the damage tonight on our 10pm newscast.

Meantime... we STILL have thunderstorms to deal with this evening! Even a few tornado warnings at the time of this writing. I posted it below... but here it is again... a link to keep updated on the warnings: NWS WARNINGS

Stay tuned...
Jamie

Posted by at 7:12 PM | Comments (10)

Late Morning Update

Things have been pretty crazy this morning... with severe and tornadic storms that raced into our viewing area around 9am. We have been tracking them with ESP.

You can see ESP online... live as we use it onair. Just click here: ESP

And keep track of all the warnings here: NWS Watches & Warnings

We may have a break in the action early this afternoon... but there is a chance thunderstorms could re-develop later today. It's something we will be watching!

Stay tuned, stay safe...
Jamie

Posted by at 11:18 AM | Comments (2)

Morning Update

I just wanted to update you on the severe weather situation for today. The SPC has placed part of our viewing area in a HIGH risk for severe storms. You can see the outlook and read about what it means here:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=eax&storyid=1782&source=0

As of this writing... there are already ongoing severe thunderstorms across parts of Kansas (including the Topeka area). Here in the Kansas City Metro Area ... our threat will increase after the noon hour, and continue into the afternoon! We are watching this situation VERY carefully!

Bottom line... keep an eye to the sky, and stay tuned to NBC Action News! We will break in to programming if need be....

Jamie

7:45 AM update: This is Gary this morning. At this moment we are deep in the colder and drier air. The only way we will have a significant tornado threat is if the warm air makes it back into our region. This may happen later this afternoon or this evening. This is one of the key factors to watch. Will the warm air make it back up here? If it is 58 degrees the tornado threat will be MUCH less than if it is 75 degrees. The latest RUC model has it cool all day. If this model is correct then we won't destablize enough, but if it is a bit off and the warm front jumps past us we will have a serious problem by evening. More on this later.

Gary

Posted by at 7:31 AM | Comments (5)

Possible Storms Sunday

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 74
LOW: 50

Sorry for the late entry tonight! Things have been crazy around here! I am working on the SEVERE WEATHER SPECIAL which airs this TUESDAY NIGHT AT 7:30PM! Be sure to tune in!

The other thing that has been keeping me busy... is tracking the potential for some severe weather for Sunday. The set up is there... we could see some stronger storms! A warm front will be draped across the area during the afternoon... and storms could fire. We are thinking the best time for strong storms in the Metro would be after noon... and before 6pm. Then the threat will shift east of KC... so the viewing area won't be out of the woods totally until the evening hours.

The threats the storms bring include strong winds... large hail... and the potential for isolated tornadoes. We will keep an eye on it as we go through the day... and will be tracking any storm development on ESP. It's still not 100% that things will actually get out of control... just about a 40% chance. But we are monitoring the situation!!

Jamie

Posted by at 9:51 PM | Comments (1)

Rainy Afternoon

Yesterday was an amazing day around these parts! Almost the perfect set-up for severe weather... and we did not have one warning issued for the forecast area. After looking at things and talking it over yesterday morning... we were pretty certain it would turn out that way. There was the CHANCE for thunderstorms to pop and become severe... but the chance was low... and we stayed quiet.

So where DID the severe weather occur? Here is a look at where damage was reported:

Click to enlarge

Today is a different story! While we're not seeing severe weather, some much-needed RAIN is falling!! You can see the wet streets on the Plaza this afternoon:

You can check out LIVE ESP to see where the rain is falling right NOW!

Gary and Brett are out shooting some stories for our Severe Weather Special right now. I will shoot mine over the next few days. The special will air next Tuesday, March 14th at 7:30pm. We will have info about our storm tracking equipment, storm chasers, severe weather safety, storm survivors, weather myths... AND Gary's outlook for this spring! You can bet that will be very interesting! Tune in if you can!!!

And don't forget this Sunday is the Pet Telethon... co-hosted by Gary and Meredith! Sunday is ALSO our next chance of rain:

Click to enlarge

Above is the NAM for Sunday afternoon. We will be watching this situation very closely!
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 12:34 PM | Comments (9)

Unbelievable

In a blog entry from two days ago I wrote about this being the same pattern and I talked about this storm and how it didn't fit for us to get much out of it. This is what I wrote:

"The storm system forecast for later this week, that comes out of the western trough, will likely miss us as it did in November."

Well, It appears we are in the wrong spot as I suspected. A big storm, and yet many of us may end up with almost nothing out of it. I am actually in shock this morning as it is too hard to believe and almost too much to take, and at the same time I new in the back of my mind that this could very well happen.

Today, we are capped. Thunderstorms have been producing some nice rainfall amounts north, east, and south of Kansas City, but they are almost done for the day. Thunderstorms may regenerate this afternoon and if they do they would likely be severe, but will they form? This is what we will be watching closely.

We did have a few thunderstorms cross the area between midnight and 3 AM, but many of us are left dry. It is just unbelievable. Below, you can see the new NAM from the 12z run this morning. All of a sudden it gets the forecast correct. NOTHING! This is the forecast precipitation for this storm.

Click map to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 6:09 AM | Comments (8)

Thunderstorms Tuesday-Wednesday

The weather pattern is setting up for a good chance of thunderstorms. It is not a sure thing, but we should see one, two, or perhaps even three rounds of thunderstorms between now and Thursday morning. There is a strong shortwave trough dropping and developing across the southwestern United States forecast to be over Arizona Wednesday morning. If this holds together and lifts far enough north then we will have drought breaking rain. But, it may stay positively tilted and this would push most of the rain to our southeast. Look at the map below to see the storm bottoming out over the southwest.


Click above to enlarge (GFS 500 mb forecast valid Wednesday 6 AM)

The surface set up as this upper level storm approaches is rather interesting. If it were warmer and a bit later in the season this would be a major severe weather set up. But, we have a few factors that are unknown at this time. How warm and how much moisture will be available? You can see the set up below.

Click to enlarge

The bottom line: We should see a few rounds of thunderstorms as the moisture increases and upper level disturbances come out of the main developing trough to the west. After this goes by an even larger storm forms. More on this next storm later.

Gary

Posted by at 6:04 PM | Comments (8)

It is the same pattern!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 65
LOW: 44

Good morning. It is early Sunday and a band of thunderstorms has just moved through. Most of the lightning occurred from I-70 north. Marlina, in Lenexa, witnessed pea sized hail earlier this morning. The rainfall the past two days has been great for our dry conditions, but we need a lot more.

The weather pattern is just going through its third cycle. It is absolutely fascinating, and still something that most meteorologists around the nation do not see. The energetic flow moving into the western half of the nation this week is almost identical to the flow aloft from 60 days ago and 120 days ago. Remember I believe we are in a 60 to 62 day cycle, give or take a couple of days. So, this is even more proof of my theory. The pattern from the first cycle, in early November (November 4th, 2005 specifically), is almost identical to what is happening and forecast to happen during the next 10 days. The pattern in January was masked a bit by some cross polor flow in northern Canada. But, it was still very similar, just amazingly weaker than what happened in November. We still had many storm systems pass through our area in January but they were mostly dry. In November they were also mostly dry, but since the pattern we are in now is almost identical to November I am going to use this part of the pattern to forecast what will happen during the next 10 to 12 days. But, January does line up with what I think will happen, just a bit weaker.

The flow aloft is forecast to be very strong with a trough developing in the west. The storm system forecast for later this week, that comes out of the western trough, will likely miss us as it did in November. The big trough in the west will shift into the central states and bring us a strong cold front by the 15th of the month. In November we had a rain changing to snow event, and something similar could happen this time. In January a similar storm system occurred around January 17th, and this produced the 15 inch snowstorm in southeastern Kansas. Something similar is possible by March 15th or 16th as this energetic flow transitions into a central United States trough. After this goes by get ready for 70s and near 80 again. This is the part of the pattern, towards the end of the month that produced our record warm January and a warm stretch in November. After this as we move towards the end of the month look for a significant storm again that could bring severe weather. I would give a 5 day window for this next big storm from March 27th to April 1st.

Can we expect something else in the next 10 days? Sure, it is possible. As this "same" pattern continues moving through this third cycle into the fourth cycle, there will be the potential for it to produce above average precipiation, but more likely in May and June and not now. There will likely be a few exciting moments for weather enthusiasts this month. But it is still the "same" pattern.


Click map to enlarge (valid Thursday at noon)

Click map to enlarge (valid Friday night at midnight)

Above, you can see the 500 mb flow forecast from the midnight run early this morning (06z run) of the GFS. This shows the first big shortwave kicking out too far south for us to see much of an affect from it. Hopefully it will kick out north, but it fits the pattern better for it to miss us. So, I am not surprised at all. It was looking like this could bring us significant thunderstorm activity and rainfall, but as you can see the shortwave is likely too far south. It is still something to watch closely though.

The second map shows the 144 hour GFS valid midnight Friday night. A huge trough will likely have formed over the west by this time, but notice how smooth the features are. A storm just does not want to form over the southwest. If one does then we will be setting up for something significant, but more likely we will have to wait until the energy shifts into the central United States. Some very exciting weather is likely as this energy moves east within 10 days and this is amazingly similar to what happened in November.

There is also a chance of some warm advection thunderstorms around Tuesday. This is an example of what can start happening with the same pattern repeating. The 12z NAM run shows significant thunderstorm activity breaking out early Tuesday morning. Tuesday could be an exciting weather day.


Click on map to enlarge (700 mb flow showing lift and mositure Tuesday at noon)

Have a great Sunday. More on these developments this week. The weathercasts this week should be fun, exciting, and information filled. So, hopefully you will be watching as I try to make some special graphics. Jamie will be on tonight as this energetic part of the pattern begins.

Gary

Posted by at 7:33 AM | Comments (7)

Saturday

Posted by at 8:15 PM | Comments (1)

Weekend Rain

Posted by at 5:09 PM | Comments (4)

New Info

I did a forecast blog entry below... and now I am going to talk a little about our DRY conditions. A lot of you have written in with questions regarding a drought. Just in time, The National Drought Mitigation Center has issued their weekly Drought Watch!

Click to enlarge

As you can see from the map above, Kansas City has been assigned a drought designation of D0. The reason is our obvious continuing short-term dryness. It is not an official drought, though, as you can see by the classifcation below:

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

However, some of the southern counties in our area are into the D1 category. Let's hope for some moisture soon!

I am working on two stories for today: One is about burn bans and what they mean (I think a lot of people get confused... are we allowed to grill out, or does a burn ban mean NO burning.) The second story is about landscaping and DO we really need to water grass now?
Tune in if you can!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:16 PM | Comments (1)

Back to Reality!

After THREE DAYS IN A ROW in the 70s... we will be closer to normal this afternoon! The average high this time of year is actually 49 degrees. Today we'll STILL be above that with highs in the 50s... but we'll drop into the 40s for Friday and the weekend.

And we are STILL tracking the CHANCE of RAIN for the weekend. We really need it!! It's tricky, though, because there is no real storm showing up, but the models are hinting at some sort of Warm Air Advection (WAA) rain event.

WAA is the movement of warmer air into a region... when it happens in the lower levels, it causes air to rise (although slowly). This happens because warm air is less dense than cold air. You can see the warm air moving into our area on the GFS below (this is for Saturday afternoon):

Click to enlarge

And the light and spotty precipitation that could result:

Click to enlarge

We will continue to update you as we head towards the weekend!
Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:07 AM