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A BIG Storm and more March 12 Info
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TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 46
LOW: 35
Low clouds hid the sun through most of the day... and temperatures responded to the lack of brightness! We held in the middle 40s this afternoon. The sun DID peek out a few times late this afternoon, but new clouds are moving in ahead of our BIG storm!
You can see the storm and how large it is... over the West:
Click to enlarge
Over the weekend, we will be ahead of the storm, and we should see some much needed rain! Saturday we may see a few showers (especially in the western part of the viewing area). Then, Saturday night into Sunday, the rain chances increase! I wouldn't be surprised to see a little sleet or maybe some snowflakes mixed in at times... but at this point, it really looks like it will mainly be rain through the weekend.
Things get a little tricky as we head into Monday. The TRACK of the upper low will determine if we see snow here in Kansas City. Farther NORTH, and we won't see much snow. Farther SOUTH and we will!! So we just have to wait and see. I know, I know... it is very hard to wait... but we just have to.
Now on to some information from the NWS, regarding the March 12th Severe Weather Outbreak. This is the latest:
"The preliminary tornado count across the United States from Sunday’s outbreak stands at 117 tornadoes. If that total stands, it would rank March 12, 2006 as the second highest tornado total for a day in U.S. history, second only to April 3, 1974 when 128 tornadoes were recorded. The April 3-4, 1974 outbreak is labeled the “Super Outbreak�, and is the benchmark as the greatest documented tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The preliminary count for March 12, 2006 will likely change as details become available on the extent of duplicate tornado reports, or additional tornadoes that produced little to no damage, yet occurred and were documented by storm spotters and chasers."
Very impressive!
Stay tuned to our changing forecast... we will keep you updated through the weekend!
Jamie
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Posted by at March 17, 2006 5:22 PM
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I don't have a clue how to read models so that is why I am asking.....Is the models still look at good as they did 24 hours ago to still get a big snow storm? Keep us up to date please. I want at least 1 or 2 big snow storms.
JOHN:
Tonight's NAM definitely has some snow here. The GFS is not out yet. This whole thing is still a few days off. We will know more over the weekend.
Jamie
Posted by: John at March 17, 2006 9:32 PM
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Looking at the most recent NAM, I am voting for rain starting about Sat afternoon with mix into the night, off and on Sunday, and thinking the low will stay south, temps should allow us to get the snow..and looks like alot of it. One last time with the sled this year for the kiddies!
SCOTT:
We should see a rain/sleet/snow mix start tonight... and continue on/off through Sunday night. On Monday, expect a complete change over to snow... I am thinking it will happen around noon at KCI.
Jamie
Posted by: Scott at March 17, 2006 10:40 PM
Jamie,
We live up in Hiawatha, Kansas and just thank you and Gary so much for the weather blog------read it daily and find it totally interesting and helpful. Thanks for all the hard work.
What do you think the chances are that we will see some much needed moisture? Sure do need it.
Also, enjoy the pictures of Mags, Stormy and Windy.
Have a great day, although I'm sure it will be very busy.
Thanks,
Maggie
MAGGIE:
Thanks for writing in... we really appreciate your nice comments!! There is almost a 100% chance we will see some much needed moisture!! What FORM it will be in, is another story alltogether! :) It looks like rain/sleet/snow mix for Sunday... and then snow on Monday. The track of the storm will dictate how much snow we see!
Jamie
Posted by: maggie at March 18, 2006 10:30 AM
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How do you think flights will be affected tommorow?
GEORGE:
I do not think tomorrow will be a HUGE deal, as surface temps should be just above freezing. But Sunday night/Monday is a different story...
Posted by: George Stevens at March 18, 2006 11:45 AM
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It looks like the NAM is coming together nicely with a slightly southerly track and has started to converge with the GFS. The NAM puts the switchover from rain to snow around midday Monday...my only question remains how much moisture is left by then, what will the role of a warm ground play, and how much help can we get from evaporative cooling dropping the temp in the colum in the overnight/morning hours Sun/Mon. If it is true that the GFS has been running a bit cold for these systems in the middle-range (3-7 day), I'm curious to see how it holds together over the next couple of runs.
I know it is frowned upon to put numbers out too early, but I'm starting to think a 2-4" could be possible for KC with higher amounts north and west. It is looking to be quite a headline event for much of NE and bordering states. Should be an interesting couple of days!
JMG:
This storm is driving me crazy... the NAM is the farthest south now. The GFS *was* taking the low south, but now is bringing it right over us. I wish I had the answer, but I just don't right now!
As for the ground temps being a concern... if the snow is falling heavy enough... I don't think it will matter! I can't stand the suspense, though!!
Jamie
Posted by: JMG at March 18, 2006 1:36 PM
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Hey Jamie,
Just wanted to know if the major winter storm is showing up and what we can expect from this storm it has been an exciting weather year so far with the warmest january on record the driest february on record the biggest tornado outbreak in march and now snow it would be exciting to see a foot from this storm. Keep up the good work.
HI, JEREMY:
Some part of our viewing area could see a foot of snow! It just depends on the storm's track. Farther north and we don't get much... farther south and we do! It definitely has been an amazing year so far... only time will tell if our extreme weather will continue!
Jamie
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at March 18, 2006 2:19 PM
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Is Gary coming back early? He said he would if the snow would be significant.
GARY:
Gary is coming back tomorrow. He wouldn't miss a possible snowstorm!!
Jamie
Posted by: Gary at March 18, 2006 2:43 PM
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The models I see show the heaviest snow in northeast Kansas for 8+ inches. For the KC area, it looks like 8" near Atchison and a general 4 to 5" across the metro area. Am I close?
GARY:
The metro *should* see two inches or more out of this thing... it *all depends on the storm track*!!!! Right now, the heaviest snow looks like it will fall in our northern counties, but if the storm shifts farther south we will have higher amounts here. Tough call at this point!!
Jamie
Posted by: Gary at March 18, 2006 3:39 PM
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hey was just wondering about the bigstorm could u plz just give me a guess of how much snow Appleton City could get from the storm i was looking at the last run of the NAM and it looks like the storm is going farther south then the run before that. I hope so Tuesday is my 16th birthday and i would love some snow. Thanks your the best.
DANIEL:
The NAM takes it farther south... the GFS still has it more north... we'll have to wait and see. A winter storm watch has been issued for our northern counties starting Sunday night... that might expand southward as we go into this thing... Stay tuned and happy early birthday!
Jamie
Posted by: Daniel at March 18, 2006 3:50 PM
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