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Amazingly, it is still the same pattern
I leave for Oklahoma later this week to present my weather pattern theory to the University of Oklahoma. I will be showing them my theory, the weather patterns of the past few years and how they cycle, and especially this years pattern which is cycling on about a 60 to 62 day period.
The weather pattern that created our outbreak with the strong jet stream plowing into the southwestern United States and then moving out over the plains states will be repeating roughly 60 days from now give or take a few days. So, watch out in May. Also, look out for a strong storm system which should bring ideal conditions for severe weather between March 29th and April 3rd. And, look for the very cold part of our pattern to repeat sometime during April. Since it will be April it will be interesting to see how much cold air gets down here. Remember the same pattern will be producing different specific results as we go through the next two cycles. But, I would guess that we will at the very least have a very hard late freeze this year.
Don't forget.....Our severe weather special is on tonight at 7:30 PM. It will begin with Jamie, Brett, and myself at the desk showing some video and coverage of Sunday's outbreak. We have a special segments on a spectacular tornado up in Platte County a couple of years ago. Another segment on one of our engineers at NBC Action News who house was destroyed by the May 4th Kansas City, KS tornado. We will look back the spectacular tornado we caught with Skytracker last year and a unique way to go over safety rules. The show will finish off with our forecast for Spring.
Gary
Posted by at March 14, 2006 8:16 AM
Gary,
When you present your theory, I am curious to what your expected outcome would be? Do you plan on researching further, or just to communicate a trend you have found to let them investigate? I would be interested in following up on this should there be any papers or documents written on this.
I will set my calandar for the first/second week of May to see what happens. May plan to do some spotting in that timeframe.
Posted by: Scott at March 14, 2006 8:44 AM
********************************************************Gary,
My wife and I will be visiting our son in Denver via I-70 this friday and returning Monday. Your Blog mentions storm possibility for the 29th time period. However how about March 17th -- March 20th. Thanks
We really enjoy your Passion for the Weather and the fact you're almost always correct. Keep up the Great work.
Thanks,
Don & Sue Martineau
Don,
March 17-20 looks rather unsettled
from here to Denver. There looks to be qutie a bit of rain, cold & possibly winter precipitation. This is not the best weekend to travel.
Jeff
Posted by: Don Martineau at March 14, 2006 9:36 AM
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Looking out at the 84-144 hr views at the 500-700 vorts, I see another set up with the jetstream pushing south out of the west up through the midwest..similar to what we just saw. Gary, I think you have it...not sure why this is working this way..but looks like another wet setup.
Posted by: Scott at March 14, 2006 12:26 PM
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Great job on Sunday, thank you for helping to keep my family safe. So will the next severe set up be like Sunday. Where it just keeps coming over and over? I have lived here all my life and can't remember experiencing that before.
SHELLEY:
Thanks for the nice comments! We actually have some wintery precipitation in the forecast as the next storm approaches! It would be early next week. Stay tuned!
Jamie
Posted by: Shelley at March 14, 2006 1:19 PM
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I would just like to personally thank the entire weather team for the WONDERFUL, and CALM way that you all presented the stormy weather on Sunday! I was surfing through the stations, and when the other stations seemed to be frantic and disorganized, you all were very calm, well informed, and relaxed for the situation that was at hand. THANK YOU!!!! Your efforts were appreciated at my house!!!!! Keep up the good work!!!!
Kathy,
It is great hearing some positive words. Thank you so much! We will likely have more days this spring to stay on top of the situation.
Gary
Posted by: Kathy at March 14, 2006 1:22 PM
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Great job on Sunday, thank you for helping to keep my family safe. So will the next severe set up be like Sunday. Where it just keeps coming over and over? I have lived here all my life and can't remember experiencing that before.
Shelley,
This was a very unusual day.
Gary
Posted by: Shelley at March 14, 2006 1:45 PM
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I just wanted to say wow on the 12th that was incredable. Do you know if this is going to go down in the history books for one if not the worst march outbreak ever? I cant imagine what severe weather season is going to be like this year!!! I will watch you severe weather special. I will talk to you later
John
John,
Did you see the special?
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at March 14, 2006 3:27 PM
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Hello Gary,
I was wondering about the weather pattern, do you see us this weekend or next week or in the near future having any snow or ice to deal with, I see the precip and see the temps, just wondering thank for your time,
Anna
Anna,
Jeff is blogging about this right now.
Gary
Posted by: Anna at March 14, 2006 5:35 PM
*******************************************************Gary
After all of this severe weather the 18Z GFS at 156 hours actually has thickness values cold enough for snow. I wonder if the GFS is displaying its cold bias, but next week will be interesting.
Devin
Devin,
Sunday through Tuesday is looking very interesting. It appears a cold airmass will settle in Friday into Saturday. This looks to be followed by a slow moving system in the southwest USA. This will induce a broad overrunning situation. This GFS may be a bit cold, but the set-up is there for a prolonged cloudy stretch with periods of precipitation. Winter weather is not out of the question. Stay Tuned! The weather forecast is about to get interesting.
Jeff Penner
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at March 14, 2006 5:35 PM
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Well, it was wild Sunday, as you can read in my email I sent. Very active, but only .25" here, while Parkville repeatedly got drenched. That is the nature of tornadic cells, discreet and often some places do get a lot of rain where others do. We had quarter sized hail twice at my house, but thankfully, nothing larger. My sister-in-laws neighborhood had golf-ball to tennis ball sized hail, damaging cars, and most likely a lot of roofs. We have found that the threshold for roof damage is golf-ball, so a lot of folks need to check their insurance!!! Twice in Oklahoma, we had golf-ball hail, and couldn't see any damage - when it heats up, the tiles, pitted, curl up and then you get water damage. BTW, I believe the cell we drove around going home turned into that 75mph cell - it was the only one that could have been at the location at the time.
Cheers,
Dog
Storm Dog,
The dry spell is slowly breaking down.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at March 14, 2006 6:23 PM
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Hey I just wanted you to know you guys did a great job on Sunday keeping us informed the whole time. I like your new radar system it rocks!
Thanks again and take care! :)
Posted by: Rachel K at March 14, 2006 8:27 PM
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Hey thanks again for your hard work Sunday! :)
Rachel,
Thank you!
Gary
Posted by: Rachel K at March 14, 2006 8:30 PM
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Will you post your spring forecast here or on the Web site somewhere?
Marlina,
We will blog about the spring forecast as we go through it.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at March 14, 2006 8:31 PM
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Great work on Sunday and a great special on Tuesday.
I made a small video and news post on our site to remind everyone (especially aviators) to keep an eye on the sky and brush up on their frontal weather skills.
We didn't chase (amature) Sunday, because we thought the cells were moving to fast. I use swift wx and weathertap.com here at the house. I'd love to have an ESP feed.
http://www.onlinesimulationsolutions.com
Keep up the great work Gary! Skytacker: Stay out of the updrafts and you'll be fine.
JEFF:
Thank you so much for blogging! I watched your video... it was awesome! :) You actually included one of my favorite moments from our coverage... when Gary took that deep breath with all the kids.
During that time of coverage... I remember looking up at the monitor and seeing those funnels over the downtown area and my heart skipped a beat. Many don't know how close we actually were to having a tornado here. Good info for the aviators out there, too!
We also use weathertap, it is a great site. Did you know you can get ESP on your cell phone or PDA? Just go to www.nbcactionnews.com and click on the PDA WIreless icon. Or here is the direct link to sign up:
http://mobile.kshb.com/wireless/signup.cfm?sid=5
Jamie
Posted by: Jeff at March 15, 2006 10:42 AM
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Gary and Weather team,
I also watched you Sunday during the bad storms. You were very well informed, even though my area down south of KC was not in too much of a danger, I continued to watch, I have family in KC and am originally from there. Your new technology for the weather is great, your station's information put all the other channels to shame. I know where I will continue to watch my weather.
Also Gary, does it look like we will have a very active spring??? It's not even spring yet and look at what has happened so far???
Thanks again, your special last night was also wonderful. Virginia
Virginia,
Thank you so very much! I do think that we will have some big severe weather days this spring. Our special section in the Kansas City Star comes out this Sunday. Check it out.
Gary
Posted by: Virginia at March 15, 2006 11:46 AM
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Jamie:
Thanks for the kind comments. We usually need something with a little bigger display than a cell phone and PDA . Generally if we're out in the field I'll have someone stationary watching the TV as well just to crosscheck our data as sometimes our info can be almost 5 minutes behind your radar. Maybe a multi million dollar mobile doppler is the way to go (hehe)
Your coverage was awesome, all of you.
If you'd like, you can drop me an email and maybe we can link you up from our site as an "unofficial" source for OSS weather. :-)
Keep up the great work gang. :-)
JEFF:
Hmmmm... the only other thing I could think of is to take a laptop out with you, and you could call up ESP from there. But keep in mind, that if we are in continuous coverage... we will be manipulating our radar here at the station. So the views on the web will keep changing as we move around on the radar!
I would love to be an "unoffical" weather observer for OSS... but I am usually INside tracking storms, and I don't get to experience them first-hand, OUTside. Our morning meteorologist, Brett Anthony, is typically our station storm chaser! He is not afraid to get up in Skytracker... I, on the other hand, am scared of heights! Especially in the vicinity of severe storms!! ;)
Jamie
Posted by: Jeff at March 15, 2006 12:40 PM
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You guys just keep up the good WX reports and we'll keep looking out.
Yes, laptops are the way to go.
I fly of course, but not in severe WX (haha), no thank you.
Take care gang!
Posted by: Jeff at March 16, 2006 4:54 PM
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