« NEW DATA |
Main
| It happened again? »
Heaviest snow band
Good morning. It is 4:25 AM and I am awake. The latest data from the midnight runs of the computer models are more impressive and further south. The upper low would likely track south of Kansas City. If it holds together over a foot of snow could accumulate in some spots. But, where will this band line up. Right now we are leaning towards the band of heaviest snow to fall near a St. Joseph to Trenton line. Kansas City would likely see 4 to 8 inches of snow with a sharp cut off south of Kansas City.
The storm goes through a strange transition tonight which complicates this forecast and it won't be cold enough for snow until sunset or later. After the new data comes in around 8:15 or so I will update this blog with our thoughts. This is the type of storm that could dump 20 inches of snow. Where will this place be? Right now I target the Trenton area. Let's see where the storm tracks and let's look at the new data. This is a unique storm that has a mind of its own.
At the very least we are getting a nice soaking before the changeover occurs. This is really helping with the dry ground. So, some good benefits to this storm, but in the end could create some traveling nightmares around the four state region.
8:15 AM Update: The new NAM model has us on the edge. It will depend on the track of the upper low. Unfortunately this storm is not normal by any means. The upper low sort of goes through several transitions. The latest data shows over a foot around Trenton and maybe one inch in Paola. This could be a long and frustrating day, but we'll see.
Gary
Posted by at March 20, 2006 4:39 AM
*********************
It's 6:40 and I just looked out the window and we are starting to see snow up in the St. Joseph area. I didn't step outside yet to see if its still mixed with rain. Being a school teacher, I am hoping for alot of snow so we can have a day or too of vacation.
Kim,
Let us know how much snow you get up in St. Joseph. You may have a lot. Kansas City is on the edge.
Gary
Posted by: Kim at March 20, 2006 6:41 AM
************
It's 8:00am and sleet is coming down very steady. The road and my deck are covered and the temperature has dropped to 33. Is the precipitation switching over sooner?
David
David,
The band moved through. Now we must wait and see.
Gary
Posted by: David at March 20, 2006 8:28 AM
************
Gary, how often are you going to update the blog today? I am at work and am curious to know the best time to head home with the kids and look forward to your blogs!
FYI I'm at 87th and Metcalf and we are only seeing rain so far!
Thanks,
Todd
Todd,
I just updated it. We will try to update it again later. But only if I see signifcant changes.
Gary
Posted by: Todd at March 20, 2006 8:57 AM
******************
Looking at the NAM and GFS, I think this will still hit further south... Look at the 06Z GFS out at 24 hr. Looks like a bullseye for the metro, with some still significant moisture in the 30hr pic. Still a toughy, we shall see.
Scott,
There is potential. I wouldn't rule anything out yet, but radar is pretty clear at this time.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at March 20, 2006 8:59 AM
**************
hey guys. i also work at a school as a nurse but man i don't really want a bunch of snow. can't afford it!! although it would be pretty. so whats your gut feeling about this gary? do you think its going to snow or is it all just a joke?
Ryan,
If it doesn't snow it will seem like a joke. At this moment it may end up being a bad joke. But, there is still a chance. The storm will be moving through us overnight.
Gary
Posted by: ryan at March 20, 2006 9:01 AM
**********************
well gary, we are ready in trenton, hope we get a big one, but i'm pretty doubtfull. though the 12z NAM does show greater than .75" QPF for me.. i'm not impressed with a temp of 42.. gunna take a lot of dyanmical and evap. cooling to get us to snow
Glen,
I agree with your concerns. The GFS only gives you 1/4th of what the NAM gives you. So, here we go again.
Call us later with an update.
Gary
Posted by: Glen Briggs at March 20, 2006 9:21 AM
**************
It is 10:10 now. I am in Liberty where it is spitting raindrops. Do you have a better idea now as to what to expect here?
Mary,
The snow chances are dwindling, but it isn't over yet. Maybe we are just panicking.
Gary
Posted by: Mary at March 20, 2006 10:12 AM
*****************
Looking at the data 12Z GFS the low shows south as I thought... and looks like the largest amount of snow will come between 10PM and 4AM ongoing through tomorrow morning then tapering off. I am thinking 8-12in for the metro with the higher amounts north of the city.
Scott,
A lot of the ingredients are there, but we are being dry slotted right now. There is hope for tonight, but confidence is waning.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at March 20, 2006 10:18 AM
****************
Gary -
A friend of mine just said that the winter storm warning was being cancelled for Kansas City. Is this right?
Thanks,
Jenn
Jenn,
The WARNING hasn't been canceled yet. There is still a chance so we will be monitoring it. See my latest blog.
Gary
Posted by: Jenn at March 20, 2006 10:49 AM
**************
Any additional new data yet? I've been watching the doppler radar in motion on the weather channel website and it looks like everything is being pushed in a strong northerly direction, slightly northeast. Any chance we could be lucky enough to dodge the bullet in the metro area, or is it just playing around with us until later? :o)
Paul,
We could be dodging the bullet, but most of us want it to snow. At least I think we do? It isn't over yet.
Gary
Posted by: Paul at March 20, 2006 11:34 AM
**************
I cant belive it either. My parents tell me of the large snow storms they had here when they were kids. I'm almost 20yrs old and have yet to experiance a snignificant snow storm (over a foot). I even lived in Colorado for 8yrs and experianced nothing there as well. It must be that everyone who lives withing 30miles of the city is blocked by any extreme weather.
JOSH:
We have a lot of bloggers who moved to Kansas City from other parts of the country... hoping for some exciting weather. It is a little disappointing when every major winter storm seems to miss us.
Posted by: Josh Pualson at March 20, 2006 2:11 PM
************
Just curious what it looks like for the north? I'm in St. Joseph and we've had mostly sleet today. About 2pm it started sleeting heavily and has just now started to taper off though about a half hour ago snow was starting to mix in with the sleet. Are we still looking at alot of snow? I will say my students were quite upset that it hadn't started snowing yet.
Thanks,
Kim
KIM,
The upper low is tracking to our north and it is stretching eastward. This limits our potential. I think it was sort of showing that this could happen, oh well.
Gary
Posted by: Kim at March 20, 2006 5:00 PM
|
