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Huge snowstorm?
Oh my! Are we about to live through a fantasy snowstorm, or is it another "make believe" snowstorm on the computer models? Above is the forecast precipitation from Sunday through Tuesday night. We have over 2 inches liquid and 1.6" of that is all snow. If the GFS comes through and is correct we would get 20 inches of snow. This has happened before. Back in March 22nd, 23rd 1912 we had a 25 inch snowstorm which is the biggest in Kansas City history.
Why is this happening? A strong high pressure area is building north of the Great Lakes and a cold airmass will gradually settle into areas from Kansas City north and east. A strong storm is dropping into the southwest and closing off. This storm will then slowly move our way. It should provide a long duration precipitation event with rain, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain, and snow. Our ponds should fill up. But then again, it hasn't happened yet.
I am on vacation driving down to Oklahoma to make me weather pattern theory presentation on Friday and Monday. If this storm approaches and becomes more likely then I will be back on Sunday night and fly back down there for the presentation later in the week. But, if it doesn't materialize then I will stay down there Monday for my talk.
Please watch Brett, Jamie, and Jeff the next few days as this storm approaches. I will be in communication with them and we will provide the most accurate forecast for you. Also, pay close attention to the blog as we keep you updated on our thoughts.
Gary
Posted by at March 16, 2006 11:17 AM
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Why not...bring on the snow storm. With the warmest January ever and tornadoes/hail in the middle March why not snow the following weekend. I hope it happens....my girls would love it. Look forward to seeing what happens. Monica
MONICA:
Not only a record warm January... a record dry February... AND a record tornado outbreak in March. It is already an amazing weather year! Snow would just be icing on the cake... so to speak... :)
Jamie
Posted by: Monica at March 16, 2006 12:08 PM
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O Captain, my Captain!
Make it so!
Seriously Gary, don't toy with my emotions like this. :)
Dave
DAVE:
It is still seveal days off... but at least one of our computer models is painting a pretty snowy picture. We will see how things pan out... it is an exciting period, that's for sure!
Jamie
Posted by: Dave Arnold at March 16, 2006 4:15 PM
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So what does your gut say about this? I would love to have a huge snowstorm, even if I have spring fever now, but we don't seem to get that luckly...*sigh*
DAVE:
Gary is gone for a few days... but I will give you my opinion... it is looking pretty impressive for accumulating snow right now! More than a foot? Maybe! Things can change, though, so we will just have to wait in suspense!!
As for Jeff Penner... he is going for 6 to 10 inches of snow!!
Jamie
Posted by: Dave C at March 16, 2006 4:49 PM
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Action Weather Team
The potential for a snowstorm Monday night and Tuesday still looks impressive on the 18Z GFS. Hopefully, the storm will track far enough south so we will be in the cold air. Other models have the warm air farther north which keeps us from getting as much snow. Time will tell!
Devin Kellerman
DEVIN:
The GFS is definitely the snowiest model right now. It looks really impressive this afternoon! We will see...
Jamie
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at March 16, 2006 5:28 PM
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I'd be careful about forecasting heavy snow for KC 4-5 days out this time of year. As strong as this upper wave is, the dry slot may progress further northeast than the GFS shows which would place the snow band well north of KC. The 12z run of the ECMWF is already hinting at this. I'd try not to over-hype this event too much at this time. Instead play up the beneficial rains that will occur from Saturday into Monday.
HI BILL:
We have mainly been talking about the rain on-air... but have gotten more into snow, here on the blog. The blog is a place for us to do a little discussing, exploring, etc...
We agree, it is certainly too early to tell if it will verify.
Jamie
Posted by: Bill Barlow at March 16, 2006 8:16 PM
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Dear Gary, The F0 that hit Linwood Saturday morning passed over my place SW to NE as a very low wall cloud before it hit Linwood. I live on the corner of 24 Hwy and Cantrel Road in Southern Leavenworth County. It destroyed my wife's 12x12 plastic garden shed, depositing pieces of it in a cntr clockwise arc in the pasture for a 1/4 mile. We had a torential down-pour for two minutes and pea-sized hail, and it was over. FYI. Keep up the good work.
TONY:
Thanks for the storm information. It is hard to believe you had a tornado when it was so cold outside.
Posted by: Tony Baker at March 17, 2006 10:44 AM
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If we do see significant snow, when will it start? I am travelling on Sunday and I'm hoping the snow won't interfere!
MARLINA:
Good news for Sunday travelers! The storm has slowed down a bit on today's runs. It looks like rain (maybe mixing with sleet) on Sunday, and the switch over to snow Monday afternoon sometime.
Jamie
Posted by: Marlina at March 17, 2006 12:32 PM
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The Brian Turner photos are amazing.
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I have family coming into town from OKC on Sunday for a baptism? What is the confidence in this storm today? Snow? Significant Snow? Ice?
Thank you - hank
HANK:
Sunday looks mainly WET... with rain likely through the day. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet or ice pellets mixing in at times... but the real winter-weather is now showing up later in the day on Monday.
Jamie
Posted by: hank at March 17, 2006 12:49 PM
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Gary - Why you gotta scare my wife like that? SHEESH :)
John
JOHN:
The storm looks a little slower on today's models runs. The snow chances are now Monday night into Tuesday!
Posted by: Johnpfromkc at March 17, 2006 1:33 PM
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I'm a firefighter in the area, and I just want to say, you have had brighter forecasts!
KURT:
We won't see the sun for several days... so the peeks of sun we are seeing now may be the last for awhile! But as a firefighter you know we NEED the precip to help offset the fire danger!
Jamie
Posted by: Kurt at March 17, 2006 2:29 PM
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How does Wichita look?
I am heading down there Sunday afternoon until Tuesday afternoon and was just curious if I should cancel my plans in the event I get snowed-in...
Thanks!
CRYSTAL
Right now it looks like it will mainly be rain Sunday... with a little sleet/ice pellets mixed in. Monday looks like it will start out as rain, but then change to snow late in the day. The snow could continue into Tuesday. Travel would not be recommended during this time. BUT things could change. Keep checking the forecast!
Jamie
Posted by: Crystal Renaud at March 17, 2006 3:43 PM
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Thanks for the comments on my lightning photos. There was only about a 12-15 min. window of time that the lightning was so active. The storm seemed to be moving quickly, too. And the moon peeking over the cloud was a great bonus. It was only out for about 5 min. total. I didn't even bother grabbing a tripod.. I just sat the camera on a cooler with my wallet under the lens..
BRIAN:
You are right... timing is everything! :)
Jamie
Posted by: Brian Turner at March 17, 2006 10:17 PM
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