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 March 20, 2006

It happened again?

I will get to everyones comments later, but it looks like it has happened to us again. The upper low is developing and going through strange transitions to our west. But, we are getting dry slotted. This dry slot should fill and shift east and south through the day. A very strong vort max is rotating around the upper low (see below). This is happening right now. In about 6 hours it will be ejecting out into eastern Kansas and may redevelop a circulation in the upper levels near Kansas City. Where this forms is important. There is a chance we will get no snow if it doesn't come together, but I am expecting 1 or 2 inches. There is also a chance of some convective bands that would form on the back side around midnight as it goes by. So, there is hope, but unbelievably it could be happening to us again. I can't wait for the criticism.
ruc_500_001s.gif

This is like a thunderstorm event now. Who will get the convective bands and how much will fall is a guess at this moment. I will have complete details tonight at 5, 6 and 10 PM. You know I will be doing a complete analysis of this potential. If a new upper low forms and tracks south of us then it will snow and quite a bit. But, at this moment the chance of this happening is slim.

Gary

Posted by at March 20, 2006 11:53 AM

Comments

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so now we aren't goin to get much snow?? thats ok with me. i have to work and can't afford a snow day.

Ryan,

It still may snow tonight, and possibly a lot. The trend is for only about 1 or 2 inches, but I may change my mind again in a few hours with new data.

Gary

Posted by: ryan at March 20, 2006 12:03 PM

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Gary, sounds like you'll need a vacation next week....I say you just forcast 1-12 inches and call it a day. Good Luck, Chris

Chris,

I think you are going to be right! 1 to 12 inches. But, everyone will immediately say, oh Gary said 12 inches. There is no way to win.

Gary

Posted by: Chris at March 20, 2006 12:19 PM

Hi Gary, I'm very bummed out how this weather situation is turning out. I guess I shouldn't because this is the story of life in KC. Do the computer models not show dry slots forming? What bums me out is we really even miss'd out on what I would at least hoped would have been a good soaking rain.

Dave,

It's not over yet! There is a dry slot because the storm went further north. WHY!

Gary

Posted by: Dave C at March 20, 2006 12:21 PM

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Gary,
Kudos on catching and reporting this now. Unfortunately all of the critics don't read your blog and know that you predicted this change earlier than anticipated. We appreciate it though. Keep the updates coming. So I'm assuming we're in for a dry spell until after the rush hour?

Thanks again,
Todd

Todd,

We usually catch it early, but most viewers don't understand that this is like a thunderstorm event. And, it will likely snow, but getting the amount exactly right is where the practically impossible task lies.

Gary

Posted by: Todd at March 20, 2006 12:25 PM

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I have been watching the radar all morning. It was totally looking like every other storm during the winter. Precip everywhere but here. When that piece of energy breaks away to the easy into KY and precip to the north, we never get much south of KC - well at least this winter.

But I am a happy camper as it rained quite a bit and my landscaping LOVES that!!

Leanard,

At least we have gotten something and it will still likely snow tonight.

Gary

Posted by: Leonard at March 20, 2006 12:27 PM

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Those of us who have to shovel snow are happy, you'll get no complaints from me.

ANDY:
I usually don't want snow... but this time, I have to say I did. But then again... I am not the household shoveler! ;)
Jamie

Posted by: Andy at March 20, 2006 12:32 PM

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Gary- You are a great meteorologist! Hopefully you will not get too much critisism! People have to remeber you just give us the weather as you see it you don't create it!
Micci

MICCI:
Thanks for the nice comments. We are glad you found the blog!

Posted by: Micci Hiatt at March 20, 2006 12:37 PM

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How can this happen? I want one last hoorah! Could we not see this dry slot coming? I just don't see how we can go from 4-8 inches to Nada!!

HANS:
We thought the storm would track a little more than 100 miles south of where it actually moved. If you read blog entries from the weekend... this is EXACTLY what our fears were... we kept saying if it went north... we wouldn't get much. And that is exactly what happened. Sigh.
Jamie

Posted by: Hans Richardson at March 20, 2006 12:42 PM

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I think it would be great if we got ZERO snow, but it could rain all week for all I care. What a wacky weather pattern, but it is KC, ya just never know. The heck with the criticism, you are still more accurate than anyone else in town and you don't yell at us when you give the weather. Keep up the great job.

PENNY:
You are so sweet, thank you for posting. From what I am reading... an overwhelming number of our comments today are positive... so that is a good sign! :)
Jamie

Posted by: Penny at March 20, 2006 12:47 PM

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Gary, I rely on your forecast more than any other in the city!! I will say that I miss snow and this winter has been crazy! Can't we have one more good snow before Spring gets here? Keep up the great work, and I look forward to your evening forecast :)

MONICA:
Thank you for posting... too bad we missed out on the snowfall. At least it was a *little* exciting, with some gusty winds and a dusting. Sigh.

Posted by: Monica at March 20, 2006 12:50 PM

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Off topic for a quick second. Looks like the pattern holds for the end of the month. The GFS 500vort for 174 hr looks like fun.

Back to the snow...its kinda wierd...the rain portion of the system has indeed dry slotted over us, but behind the rain/snow line, the snow has not budged due to the slotting, in fact seems to have backfilled. It has not retreated even...and looking at a regional radar, the slotting seems to have started at about 9am. I do see some backfilling reforming around Wichita..

38F at MCI..dewpoint at 30F..

Still maintaining snow. Even though the low is reforming.

Posted by: Scott at March 20, 2006 12:52 PM

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Ah Gary. You know that we true believers would never criticize you for the goofy things that the weather in the midwest does. What exactly is a dry slot?

Now, if there is someway that we CAN get this 4-8 inches, I know my children will be pleased. They are supposed to go back to school tomorrow from spring break and have put off finishing their homework, betting on a snow day.
thanks
jennifer

JENNIFER:
I really hope your kids decided to do their homework! :) Too bad the snowday didn't happen here. People up in Nebraska and Iowa are enjoying the snow we could have gotten... had the storm just tracked a little farther south. Here is the answer to your dry slot question:

Dry Slot - A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

Thanks for posting!
Jamie

Posted by: Jennifer at March 20, 2006 1:00 PM

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I live in Saint Joseph and we have had snow but the wind is blowing so hard none of it is hitting the ground. I have watched the noon news forcasts and no one has mentioned the incredible winds we are getting right now.

AMY:
I think I would rather have wind-driven snow... than wind-driven rain. That is what we had to deal with down here yesterday... it was quite nasty outside! How much snow did you end up getting at your place in St. Joseph?
Jamie

Posted by: Amy at March 20, 2006 1:02 PM

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Yall are killing me with this. I sent my kids to grandmas so I wouldn't have to leave work early. I figured that the rushville school dist. would get an early out today and no school tomorrow. Thanks....

Just kidding I know its not your fault.Gary you should have stayed in OKL. You brought us bad luck.

MICHAEL:
Enough teasing! ;) Gary is headed back down to OKC tomorrow... so maybe we will get a few flurries/light snow out of this next wave...
Jamie

Posted by: Michael Tongate at March 20, 2006 1:03 PM

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Bummer! I was hoping for big snow....and the chance to work from home tomorrow. Of course, this is Missouri and they tell you to stick around if you don't like the weather because its bound to change!

HI, JENNIFER!
You know, I think every region has that saying! I heard it a lot when I used to live in Montana, too! :) Sorry you had to go into work today... a dusting is about it for us...
Thanks for posting!!
Jamie

Posted by: Jennifer at March 20, 2006 1:13 PM

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I hope we get dumped on. I'm sorry...I love the snow! This is my last chance for one more big hurrah before spring.

L:
We hear ya! Thanks for posting...
Jamie

Posted by: L. at March 20, 2006 1:16 PM

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No criticism, just disgust at Blue Springs weather - one moment Pleasant Hill is negative, the next moment hog wild, then another forecaster is almost totally 180 degrees - I think my last blog was spot-on...nada for Blue Springs...we often get much less amounts of precip than other areas, despite what others may insist...I believe it is so. Read the following from our unbelievable Pleasant Hill friends:

1305 only the slightest of drizzle – clouds lifting – of course – the old BSHE (Blue Springs Hole Effect)

HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE DRY WEDGE AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHOWING UP AT 700MB ON THE 12Z NAM WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS
SET UP AND THE SOUTHERN AXIS APPEARS IT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
ACROSS NORTHWEST MO...JUST NORTH OF MCI. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST AND
BEGUN TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER.

There you go… another dud and another example of back and forth from our Pleasant Hill friends…

A Disgusted Dog (never believe it until you see it, especially snow and this late)

DOG:
Sorry it didn't materalize. But it wasn't just Blue Springs that missed out this time. :(
Jamie

Posted by: StormDog at March 20, 2006 1:16 PM

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Hi Gary!!

I'm glad that we aren't going to get much snow, I don't think our new dog would like that, she is a dalmatian and doesn't have much fur to keep warm. As for the critisim, don't listen to it, I think you all are the BEST weather team in KC!! Keep up the good work!!!

KATHY:
Thanks for posting... you know, my puppy DOES want it to snow!! :) She is a yellow lab, and just loooooves playing in it! Thank you for the nice comments... we are glad you found the blog!
Jamie

Posted by: Kathy at March 20, 2006 1:18 PM

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Gary
Do you feel that Bethany will still get the 7-9 inches of snow.

NOEL:
No.
:)

Posted by: Noel at March 20, 2006 1:23 PM

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Still no snow until after 6pm? Ok w/ me. After 6pm how much are we now looking at?

SARA:
Just flurries through this afternoon. A dusting is it.

Posted by: SARA at March 20, 2006 1:23 PM

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Hi Gary,
Love reading your blog updates... I'm in Lenexa now, but live just north of the river, I went out at lunchtime and the east wind is HORRIBLE!!! Have you been able to sort through the data for an update?

P.S. even if you miss this forcast, you are still the most accurate in KC. If you don't know... you tell everyone, hey, I'm not sure, but this is what the data says. You make me feel like you are educating me not spoon feeding me my weather... Thanks!

Judy:
Thank you for your nice words. It was a disappointing outcome, but at least we got a dusting.

Posted by: Judy at March 20, 2006 1:25 PM

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Gary you have the most accurate weather forecasts of anyone in the area and you keep us updated as the data comes in. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication.

LIZ:
This blog has been a great tool for us to keep people updated in between newscasts. We hope to see you back here often!
Thanks for watching,
Jamie

Posted by: liz at March 20, 2006 1:39 PM

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Hello Gary,
So what is your gut feeling on accumualtions? whats the % of a large amount of snow? Is this gonna be as big as the one earlier this year?, Thanks
Anna

Anna,
The storm went too far north. Like we talked about over the weekend, a slight shift farther north... and we don't get much snow. That is what happened. A dusting is about it for our area. Maybe a few flurries this afternoon...

Posted by: Anna at March 20, 2006 1:59 PM

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I would much rather be ready and not have anything happen then have it snow a lot and not be ready. Thanks for doing a great job with this unpredictable KC weather!

ANGELA:
Thank you so much for your nice comments! We really appreciate you taking the time to write in!
Jamie

Posted by: Angela at March 20, 2006 2:01 PM

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Gary,

1st and foremost, you are the best weatherman in the Midwest!! Secondly, I was originally in school to be a meteorologist--so weather watching is definitely one of my hobbies!

I noticed before you posted late this morning, that the relative humidities in Dallas and San Antonio were in the 20 to 30% range. I also noticed, on the wator vapor loops, a trough that sparked severe storms over South Texas, which seemed to cut the moisture source for the "low pressure system" over the Texas Panhandle. Is it just me, or do some "low pressure systems" (esp. during the winter) become so powerful in the inner Mountain SW, that the waves (troughs) they send out, end up depleting them of their moisture sources, once they move into the Central Plains? This storm, to me, seems like a prima facie example of this theory (if has any feasibility). The line of t-storms that moved across Texas this morning, dragged the lower-level moisture flow towards La. (leaving NW winds and dry air in it's wake), and away from our storm system.

Also, though, I do notice that winter storms seem to go through periods where they die down in the afternoon, but seem to gain intensity during the evening (increased relative humidities a cause??). This storm, does seem like one that may tap enough moisture this evening, to kind of create a "peak" precipitation period as it crosses Eastern KS. I am hoping this is the case, and do notice some precipitation coagualating in the Wichita region, but still am noticing low dew points from Dallas south into the Texas Hill Country.

Chester,

I really don't buy your theories. There may be something to them, but it comes down to what part of the storm you are in. Since this storm went further north we ended up being in the wrong part of the storm. It did do what we thought it would do, but just in Nebraska and Iowa not here. It had nothing to do with the thunderstorms or anything else cutting off moisture.

Gary

Posted by: Chester at March 20, 2006 2:02 PM

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Gary, we hear so many times that the heaviest snow falls to the north of where the low tracks. I've recently read that the upper low will track through OK and in to KY and TN. Why does this more southerly track put so much of the snow way up in NE? I see that their is also a dry slot on satellite, but why doesn't the snow band pivot with the low moving on a more southerly track?
Thanks
Dylan

Dylan,
The main upper low actually tracked farther north. That left the heaviest snow in NE and IA.

Posted by: Dylan at March 20, 2006 2:06 PM

Gary,
It was bad enough as a snow lover to suffer through a no snow winter. I had fully turned my eyes to spring and written this all off. Then a glimmer, turned into a knockout snowstorm on it's way to usher in Spring.
When will all the local weather guys get in the game and realize you cannot forecast snow here until, A. it is actually snowing! or B. These low pressure systems eject out and are at least in the western plains, and moving. You guys get all cought up in your fancy "new data" and what network has the fanciest named tracking devices. Obviously these fancy gadgets don't replace common sense and just plain looking out the window.YES these are needed for severe storms, no question. But concerning winter weather, send the computers to warmer climates for a winter vacation and you guys pull out classroom meterology and figure this out from knowledge.

Maybe, you will not pull the warning trigger so fast and get 99% of the population all worked up for nothing, or like me get the one percent all excited, only to hear once again that this happened, or that happened, and before you know it what was a 6inch plus snow turns into an inch or less.
A common guy from the past Dan Henry always referred to the Tonganoxie Split, Dry slots, 15 different things happening to make it snow, whatever the case. Maybe you guys should limit yourself to 12 forecast limits and then you would not have to read emails like this. Your accuracy levels would improve I am confident.

Keith,

Try thinking of it this way. We really are doomed at trying to forecast the amount of snow. Oh, we get a lot of them almost exactly right, but most of the time we are a bit off. Why? Well, try predicting the exact amount of rain. It is just as hard. But, the public doesn't really care if we get 1/2 inch of rain or 2 inches of rain. If we predict 2 inches of rain and only 3/10ths of an inch falls everyone still thinks we were right because it rained. But the same thing with snow and you are wrong.

It did snow last night and this morning. We predicted it, but we were way off on the amounts.

Gary

Posted by: Keith at March 20, 2006 2:14 PM

Gary,
Radar loops show signs of moisture bands beginning to increase over Kansas City? Were your first instincts possibly correct of a more substantial snowfall? Also, I've noticed the humidity levels steadily increasing and the barometric pressure steadily decreasing. Does this bode well for increased chances of snow? (My fingers are crossed that it does).
Trey

TREY:
Unfortunately for you snow lovers... the storm tracked too far north... and took the heavy snow with it. We ended up dry-slotted... with nothing but a dusting.
Jamie

Posted by: Trey at March 20, 2006 2:15 PM

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My husband just called from Gardner and said that they are experiencing a lot of ice now, is that coming south?
Thanks for doing such a great job!

Sharon,
Thanks for the report! We were swamped with blog entries/emails/phonecalls... so sorry we were unable to reply to this in a timely manner. We will likely see just flurries today... that is it.
Jamie

Posted by: Sharon at March 20, 2006 2:15 PM

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Following up on Ryan's post now that it is 2 1/2 hours later...
Not much snow now?

HANK:
Not much. :(

Posted by: hank at March 20, 2006 2:31 PM

Gary,
On radar there still looks like a lot of snow west of Salina all the way south to the Oklahoma border, Don't give up on the snow yet! I would like to see more then 1 or 2 inches of snow! Gary with the winds the way they are do you think there will be blizzard like contitions (if it snows?) in the area???
Sean Worley

Sean,
To have blizzard conditions, we actually need SNOW! ;) We missed out... again...

Posted by: Sean Worley at March 20, 2006 2:37 PM

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Gary,

When will meteorologists just accept that with Global warming all these forecasts and models need a "global warming factor"?
I now take your forecast and knock 20-30% off of it - so if you say 100% chance of precip I adjust to 70-80%. If you say 30-40% chance of rain I knock it to nothing.
Tempatures are accurate so I dont adjust them. Winds I add 5-10mph to what is predicted.
I know you did a story a couple of years ago refuting how people were saying we dont get as much snow as we did when we were kids. You proved we get the same but it isnt the same. When I was a kid it snowed and stayed cold and the snow hung around a while. Now it snows but then the next day it is in the 40"s and the next day after that in the 60"s and the snow is gone.
Global warming factor - it has changed our midwest climate - if we have the hurricanes forcasted for this summer you can kiss any moisture good bye again. That just sucks away all that Gulf moisture. You have La Nina also.

David,

I have to disagree with you, unfortunately. Global Warming is likely influencing our weather. But, your statement just doesn't work. How can you explain yesterday's 30 inches of snow in Nebraska? We really just barely missed this one. It is the wheel of weather, and we keep landing on the wrong spot.

Hurricane season is not affecting whether we get more or less rain. It really has almost no affect at all on Kansas City, unless one were to come up and bring us some rain.

So, be patient. One of these days we will have a very exciting pattern, and it could be this spring.

Gary

Posted by: David Seibold at March 20, 2006 2:45 PM

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I know you have a lot to do right now. When you get the chance, can you give us an update for your Spring/Summer precip. forcast? We water our lawn out of our pond and our pond has never been this low since we built our house. It has been drier than most folks realize.

DWIGHT:
Gary has been talking about the low water level in the pond by his house, too. We are going with about 15 inches of precip through June. We sure need it!
Jamie

Posted by: Dwight at March 20, 2006 2:46 PM

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Gary, What are you thinking thus far into the afternoon. I would love some snow!!

ROBERT:
From what we can tell, a lot of you would like the snow! We will have an update at 5, 6 and 10pm on NBC Action News. Thanks for posting!

Posted by: Robert Agatone at March 20, 2006 2:47 PM

***************
I'm okay if "It happened again!" Have to drive from KCI area to 435 and Holmes around 4pm and back to KCI area around 7pm. Wasn't looking forward to the potentially dangerous roads. How will the temperature hold? Will it drop significantly and cause road freezing?

TERESA:
Glad your commute was ok! We should dip into the 20s tonight...

Posted by: Teresa at March 20, 2006 2:56 PM

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What is the "window" that we would get the best chance for snow?

DERICK:
That window is now closed. :(

It would have been Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the storm went too far north and we got trapped in the dry air.

Jamie

Posted by: Derick Ackerman at March 20, 2006 2:58 PM

****************
Hi Gary!

I sure was hoping we'd get some snow! I was looking forward to sleeping in with the kids and drinking hot cocoa. Maybe schools will cancel if you talk about the threat of snow. Maybe? :o) Thanks for staying with us Gary! Hope you get your vacation days back!

LAURA:
I like the hot cocoa plan! :) Even if there is no snow... it is still cold out there! Gary has the rest of the week off, to enjoy his unfinished vacation!
Jamie

Posted by: Laura at March 20, 2006 3:07 PM

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I can't imagine how hard it must be to predict these storms! We are from Minnesota, so a nice snowfall would be just like home! On the other hand, our son's soccer season just started and it's tough to play the game in the snow! You are the only one we trust for accurate forecasts, so keep up the great work! I just hope what we have freezes...we have 4 dogs and I have been wiping 16 paws all day long!

JOYCE:
Aw... that is cute about your dogs! :) I was just talking with someone else about their childrens' soccer season starting! It seems so early... but maybe it's just because there is a dusting of snow on the ground! :)
Thanks for watching!
Jamie

Posted by: Joyce at March 20, 2006 3:08 PM

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I'm happy to skip the snow, I have to shovel it at work.

ANDY:
You really lucked out, huh? ;)
Jamie

Posted by: Andy at March 20, 2006 3:15 PM

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Winter Storm Hype 2006 has officially come and gone.

Predicitions of a big storm.....

Hyping of the storm......

Backtracking by all stations.

The only predictable pattern in town.

What a joke.

Myke,

There was no hype by us. We just forecast what we think will happen. Unfortunately this storm just misse us to the north. Remember, it did rain, sleet, and snow. It just didn't snow the amounts we predicted.
Gary

Posted by: Myke at March 20, 2006 3:17 PM

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It seems like we always have to battle the warm
air aloft when we get a winter storm! When will the air temperature actually get below freezing? It is starting to feel like we live in the mid-south instead of the Midwest. Bring on the snow!!!
Devin Kellerman

DEVIN:
Too bad we missed out on the big snow, it seems a lot of people really wanted it this time. Temperatures will be right at or just above freezing today. Tonight we will dip way below.
Jamie

Posted by: Devin Kellerman at March 20, 2006 3:28 PM

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Thanks for all the latest Gary! Don't worry about the critisism - I wouldn't listen to anyone else, you're still the most accurate. You do a great job of explaining "why" you think it may miss us or not; it's nice to see how you use all the variable factors to come up with your forecast. Snow or no-snow...Good job!

MIKE:
Thanks for the nice comments. I don't know if you saw Gary's 10pm weathercast last night, but I really liked the graphic he used... where he showed where we *thought* the storm would track... and where it actually *did* track. A difference of a little over 100 miles... and ALL the difference in snowfall totals.
Jamie

Posted by: Mike at March 20, 2006 3:31 PM

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Hi Gary, Jamie and all,

You guys deserve a round of applause. Working through the night, getting little or no sleep (two weekends in a row!) and keeping us all as informed as you possibly can. You're doing a fantastic job...viewers need to remember that you don't control the storms. (Much as you'd like to, sometimes.)

Good luck tonight...

Stacey,

Thank you for the kind comments. It has been a wild two weeks and then this happens. A busted forecast. The past two weekends have had the extremes of weather, and yet we feel like nothing happens here.

Gary

Posted by: Stacey at March 20, 2006 3:55 PM

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Hello! I know ya'll are working very hard and I want to say thank you for putting all your effort for keeping all of KC updated on this storm!! I live in Weston, and all we have really had was a little rain and some sleet. When do you predict the snow will start? I know that kids are really hoping for a snow day tomorrow!!
...Also, tonight we have a few errands to run and have sport pratices.....so do you think it will be safe being on the road until later tonight? I know that we would not like to be on icy roads!!

Thanks for your time!! :)
--Hope

HOPE:
Snow accumulations are generally a dusting or so around these parts! Temperatures will be right around freezing (or just above) today. Tonight we'll dip below freezing... into the lower 20s. So there could be some slick spots.
Thanks for posting!
Jamie

Posted by: Hope at March 20, 2006 3:57 PM

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Well this really stinks i was hoping for a huge snowstorm. Maybe Appleton City will get some thundersnow oh that would make my day. Thanks for the update.

DANIEL:
I know you wanted snow... sorry it didn't really materialize for us...
Jamie

Posted by: Daniel at March 20, 2006 4:00 PM

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Gary: I appreciate you keeping us informed on your blog. Some other stations weather guessers haven't posted a new entry on their blog since Sunday night. Keep up the good work and the updates especially during these crazy weather events. Rich

Posted by: Rich at March 20, 2006 4:24 PM

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Gary,
How is the AM comute shaping up? Thanks for working so hard for us. Chin up!
Jenny

JENNY:
Roads are mainly wet this morning... temperatures are close to freezing, though. So watch out for slick spots... especially bridges/overpasses. The usual!
Jamie

Posted by: Jenny at March 20, 2006 4:26 PM

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gary and team: what if any impacts do you think the fairly potent thunderstorm development in OK will have on this winterstorm? good? bad?

Glen,

It is often thought by meteorologists that thunderstorm development affects a storm system. It can, but not at this time of the year. The flow aloft is so powerful now that thunderstorm development is more a result of what is going on and the influence on the pattern at the surface and aloft is minimal. Now, in the later spring and summer when the flow aloft is so much weaker it very likely has an impact on changes in the surface and upper level conditions.

Gary

Posted by: Glen briggs at March 20, 2006 4:39 PM

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Hey, you can only work with what information you're given! You do a great job of keeping up with the changes. At any rate, I hope there's a bunch of snow (mainly because I enjoy dramatic weather).

Thanks for the hard work!

Posted by: R. at March 20, 2006 5:05 PM

Gary, this is David Pollard the weather crazy science teacher from Blue Springs. Would I be correct in saying that this pattern of always being "on the fence", when it comes to storms like this, is because historically the average track of the low pressure systems goes right through KC? So, we might as well get used to it. Although, this will be impossible for me to accept. I continue to wait for my once in a lifetime snow event here in KC. As a kid growing up in St. Louis we had a blizzard that dumped between 13"-20". I don't want that to be my last. I'm waiting on a historical, unprecedented, outlandish, paralyzing, crippling, behemoth of a storm. One I can tell my grandchildren about, write poetry about, walk in, play in, make a snowman larger than "snowzilla" up in Alaska, shovel until my recreational shoveling heart is content. Oh the joy of that! O.k., enough dreaming, back to reality. I would venture to guess that no one wants snow more than me. Here is a sample:

Snow/

As I look into the night/
And the snow begins/
I see legions of angels/
Coming to cover the world's sins/

To most, snow gives feelings/
Of utmost disgust/
But to me these feelings/
Aren't just feelings but a must!/

The bigger they get/
The closer they seem/
And one day in heaven/
With them I will team!!/

David,

Thanks for the poem. It is therapy for us all as we come to grips with this missed storm.

We will have a better weather pattern soon. It is amazing how close this pattern has been to big storm systems, and yet it ends up doing nothing.

Gary

Posted by: David Pollard at March 20, 2006 5:06 PM

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Hi Gary,

Well, I am not surprised that this storm missed us. Your "theory" on the latest weather pattern has come true to a "T." I know there is still a chance we might get some snow, but I think it is a bust. At least you are not like NWS who never takes risks. You have a hard job. I give you 150% support for at least trying! God Bless!

Brian from Overland Park KS

Brian,

Thank you for the support. This storm is so similar to 60 and 120 days ago. It went by dry in January, and produced rain changing to snow in November. This time it produced, but not the snow we expected

Gary

Posted by: Brian at March 20, 2006 5:36 PM

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Hello Gary,
Whats the precentage of this whole thing missing us here in the metro area, If not are you expecting any HEAVY snow? Thank for your time.
Anna

Anna,

We may get a dusting. It is hard to believe.

Gary

Posted by: Anna at March 20, 2006 6:33 PM

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Wow, I'm sad. The kids and I had SO much hoped for a ton of snow for winter's last hurrah. Ah well - we can always hold out hope for November. . .

Bobbi,

Almost, but we miss it again!

Gary

Posted by: Bobbi at March 20, 2006 7:56 PM

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Thanks Gary! This is the first time I've seen your Blog. It is great! After searching around other news sites tonight for weather info--I was thrilled to find your forecast. It was SO informative and truthful. Thanks for all you do. I secretly wish for a "snow day" but now can realistically plan for a day of teaching tomorrow. It will make for a better nights sleep. Otherwise, I'm like a kid at Christmas checking outside all night to see what if anything has materialized.

Thanks!
Stephanie

STEPHANIE:
We are SO happy you found the blog!! We have received a LOT of good comments from people in the past 24 hours! Gary is the same way... when snow is in the forecast... he is usually up all night watching the radar!
Thanks for watching!
Jamie

Posted by: Steph at March 20, 2006 8:28 PM

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I'm glad that we aren't going to get the heavy snow that was forecast earlier today. However, I would rather be prepared for a storm that doesn't come, than be unprepared for a storm that no one could foresee.

I lived in Houston for sixteen years and was very perplexed by hurricane forecasting. It is difficult to predict the exact location of where a hurricane will make landfall. Hurricanes and winter storms are similar in many ways. They are both strong areas of low pressure. It is very difficult to predict their exact path. Winter storms move at a much faster pace than hurricanes. Therefore, I believe winter storm forecasting has got to be the most challenging aspect of Meterology.

Thank you, Gary, Brett, Jamie and Jeff for all of your efforts.

CAROL:
We appreciate your kindness... winter storms are definitely my least favorite to forecast for this very reason!
Jamie

Posted by: Carol Johnson at March 20, 2006 8:45 PM

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Hi Gary,

I am sitting at my desk, not wondering if it is going to snow tonight. I think i have that one covered. However, i am wondering if it will freeze up and if i should spread salt tonight. The air temp might get below freezing but the ground temp won't. Oh well i guess i will stick it out a couple more hours and check for myself. P.s. i got some good footage of the lightening last weekend, i will send it to you.

I do watch your report exclusively.

kevin

KEVIN:
This might be a little late to answer your question, but temperatures will be RIGHT around freezing today. Tonight, we will dip down into the low 20s.
Thanks so much for watching!!
Jamie

Posted by: kevin at March 20, 2006 11:43 PM

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Hi Gary,
Best wishes for your trip to OK and your presentation. Is there any way we can get a copy of it?
BTW, please explain a "dry slot" again. THANKS!
Ann Wilson

ANN:
Gary said his presentation went well! He hasn't really published it at this point, but he always talks about it here on the blog! And here is that definition of "dry slot" again:

Dry Slot - A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

Jamie

Posted by: Ann Wilson at March 22, 2006 10:27 AM

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Gary

Dave Seibold is a co-worker of mine. You responded to his "global warming" email above. He's shared the emails with us it gave us a good laugh. Dave so wants to be a meteorologist!

Keep up the good work! How's Windy doing? You've got to love the old dogs!

HI, NEENA:
Gary is on vacation through Monday! He went down to Oklahoma City to present his weather pattern theory to one of his old professors! I am sure he will have a full update when he returns! :) Windy is now 16 and a half... and still doing great! Thanks for posting!
Jamie

Posted by: Neena Dunlop at March 22, 2006 11:31 AM

 
 

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