KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Light snow this morning!

Well, as I am writing I am on vacation. Yesterday wore us out but I would like to make one interesting statement for all of the viewers who think the forecast was a total bust. And, we can never get anything right.

It is snowing as I am writing. Only a dusting but it is snowing. This means that this storm produced widespread rain, sleet, and snow. Don't forget that we had over 40 mph winds yesterday. Can you see that this storm did hit us? It is always amazing to me that people don't see this. We are just judged on the exact amount of snow. I think the NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM does a great job at predicting snowstorms, but sometimes this happens. It is as simple as the storm went further north by about 150 miles which is a small adjustment when you look at the big picture. I am not making excuses, but we did get hit by this storm! Looking back on it there were clear signs as early as 6 AM yesterday morning where I should have realized that the snow part of this storm was clearly missing us. But, even at this point it was too late. We were the first ones to change the forecast by 9 AM to 1 to 2 inches at the most. But, this is a small consolation prize.

Have a great week. The weather pattern is still fascinating and I think you can see that it is starting to produce. On our weather special we made a forecast for 15 inches of rain between now and the end of June. It should be a rather exciting stretch of weather. It is cold now, but we will have some big ups and downs through April.

I will be back on Monday. I am presenting my weather pattern theory to the Director of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma tomorrow. I will let you know how it goes.

***********************
Gary and team,

Don't let it get you down on this forecast. I do appreciate last night seeing you state that this forecast was mess'd up, in reality, I know you guys kept tweaking the forecast because of the changing data. I saw this on the NOAA site also, they had concern's about the forecast as early as sunday morning. I now the other stations (one that sounds like 'box') was bragging about them predicting this outcome. The truth is no matter what prediction models you have, and what expensive radars or anything, mother nature is going to do what mother nature wants to do.

Keep up the good work and especially with this blog which I think stands to help educate people even further.

Dave

******************
Hi Gary, I know that you will receive a lot of criticism, so I just wanted to say that I was watching every station this weekend and checking the weather on the internet every min. and it was you guys that said this storm would go north and we would only get an inch or two before any of the other guys. I believe that you all at Action News are the most accurate forecast out there, and one of the hardest working. So don’t let any criticism get you down and have a great vacation.

ADAM:
Thank you for your kind words! I am sure Gary will enjoy the rest of his vacation! :)
Jamie

********************
Gary,

Thanks for your comments. While the storm did not produce the amount of snow you forecast (to some that was a bust - like me) it did produce strong winds, well needed rain, and lots of discussion!

I think you guys did the best job you could. In this case, EVERYBODY was off. It is not like you guys were the only station in town who were forecasting a major winter storm.

I read the weather discussions on Sunday from the NWS, and they were some signs then that the snow forecast may turn out to be less. One of the things that I hear over and over is "If the track of the storm changes even a little that will change where the heavy snow is located." NWS uses that, and most of the TV stations use that.

There is a fine line when it comes to forecasting these big storms, and you cannot win no matter what. If you forecast a major storm and DO NOT hype it (or at least go into detail about it) and it hits -- people are upset. If you forecast a major storm and it does not hit, people think your forecasts are not accurate.

One of the things I have noticed though as TV weather forecasts tend to forecast "worse case," where as NWS forecasts the other way. Even though I was down because we did not get the snow, I would rather have you forecast a major storm then not. Case and point was the major outbreak of severe weather on March 12th. You folks starting talking about it the week before. In that case, even NWS started talking about it. Then, everything happened. Every station in town had coverage. Some argue that other stations in town had too much coverage, but that is up for debate. Anyways, good job. While the snow amounts were a bust, the overall forecast was not as you said. Have a good week!

Brian

BRIAN:
Great post! Thanks for the nice comments. In situations like this (and March 12th) it can be a double-edged sword. But we do our best!
Thanks for watching!
Jamie

*******************
Gary,

I just want to tell you that you are the only weather man in town that I watch. You above all the others offer the closest forecast on a daily basis. I probably will not read these blogs again. The comments made by the few ignorant people who wanted to degrade you over this storm on Monday are too frustrating for me. I don't know how you handle that! If those people had bothered to pay attention in even middle school science class, they would have a glimmer of an idea of how hard your job is. I would challenge each and every one of them to get some kind of formal meteorlogy training before turning their ignorance loose on any one again! I don't envy you at all. But I do support you to the end of every storm! Keep up the good work!

Michelle

Michelle,

Thank you so much. I have been answering the comments and posting everyone, even the negative ones. It is hard reading the negative ones, and usually they out number the positives, but it seems we are getting more supportive responses this time around.

Have a great week.

Gary

******************
weather team, Currious to see what you think on why the computer models blew it so big on this event? to me anyhow, it seemed like the computer models never did catch up to reality, even at 18z yesterday the nam and gfs were giving me over .5" of qpf, which of course, we didn't get.. do you have any thoughts as to why they blew it.. or can we chalk it up to models have bad days?

Glen,

It is really more simple than you think with this one. Here is what I think happened. The upper low was forecast to be a bit strange anyway. Most models forecasted the upper low to develop over the Texas Panhandle and move to near Wichita. Then it was suppose to go through some strange transition and track south of Kansas City. Unfortunately it developed over southwest Kansas and just sat there most of the day as waves rotated around it. Then this was the main low that drifted toward north central Kansas before stretching out.

So, the low just went a bit further north than the models predicted. It seems like a major error, but it was only a minor difference and you missed the 1/2" to 1" liquid by just a little bit. Nebraska and Iowa have what we COULD have had.

Thanks for the pictures. Did you see them last night at 10 PM.

Gary

First of all, I must boo the raggedy, disconbobulated, broken up low! Darn you low for tracking 100 miles north when we could not find your center. Darn you low that brought all other ingredients of a blizzard without the snow. Darn you low. As to the forecasters...I pity you all when it comes to storms like this. As already stated..you cant win..but you know what? It was fun wasn't it? Right, wrong or indifferent, you will never meet the expectations of the masses as this study of science has the highest level and frequency of public consumption, with one of the lowest probabilities to succeed based on public expecations. That being the case..forecasters..you have accepted your fate and must be doing this for the excitement and the passion..and I applaud that!

Hang in there weather team...we are gearing up for quite the year and it will be pretty exciting!

Just think..it could be worse maybe? You could be on the hook in NOAA for predicting 6 mo out the number of hurricanes for the following season!

Scott,

We are fine! But, it is never easy missing a forecast. We pride ourselves on being the most accurate. There are some mistakes I made, but it would have been very difficult to make the call for no snow until it became obvious by around 9 AM yesterday. At this moment we made the call way before everyone else.

Anyway, thank you for the supporting comments.

Gary

*****************
Action Weather Team,

I too was watching the weather discussions from the NWS and noticed the emphasis on the "track" of the storm. If I remember correctly, Jamie was saying this all weekend as well. While we were all hoping for a major snowfall, there was always that possibility that the storm would change ever so slightly and we wouldn't see much of an event. We were constantly reminded of this in all of your forecasts over the weekend. I have to chuckle that anyone would imply that the forecast was a "bust" and that your team can't get anything right. I didn't realize that people actually think the Action Weather Team CONTROLS the weather. Like Dave said in the blog above, mother nature will do what mother nature wants, and unfortunately she can be very moody.

The Action Weather Team HAS the most accurate forecast HANDS DOWN! And we will all continue to look to your team for that very reason. Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication to your jobs. It really is appreciated.

Janine

Janine,

Jamie did an outstanding job this weekend. In every weathercast she explained that the track of the low was critical for what would happen here. Our prediction may have been way off on the snow amounts but she had explained how easily this could happen.

Thank you for the kind words.

Gary

*******************
Gary,

Your analysis of this system is a great one and is appreciated. While many stations will retreat from the appearance of a blown forecast by simply jumping right ahead to the next forecast, you took the time to analyze the situation and explain it well.

As you noted (and we all feared as early as the weekend), the models didn't grab ahold of the warm mid layer until early morning yesterday, at which time the first hints of an expansive dry slot became apparent. Additionally, the slow-down in the advancement of the low didn't help matters one bit. But by that time, the seeds had been sewn in terms of the forecasts and amounts. As much as we blew the forecast here in KC, towns in central IA blew it in the other direction, not anticpating much, but now being buried by double-digit snowfall totals.

So again, kudos to you and the rest of the team for taking the time to complete a well-done postmortem on this system. While it is easy to skip past it and move on to the next forecast, analyzing the success/failure of a big forecast is often overlooked but is incredibly valuable.

JMG,

You are awesome! Thank you. And, you made an important, but sad point. We blew the forecast with the snow amounts here, but Iowa and parts of Nebraska blew the forecast as they get buried under 8 to 30 inches of snow. Some of those forecasts had only slight chances of snow. The sad part is why can't this ever be us. I would have loved to get 30 inches of snow when we only predict 3 inches. In my conversations with the weather team we thought this was possible here. But, then we are left with nothing.

Gary

Gary,
Seems you are a little bit defensive, which is odd b/c the viewers are obviously not bright enough to understand the "storm did hit us," so why would you care what we thought? Of course we noticed the 40mph winds, what we didn't notice was the substantial snowfall- but is this really the first time that you guys have missed a forecast? Instead of "waiting for the crticism to start", how about explaining what happened, and admitting, that yes again, the forecast was wrong. You are not judged by the exact amount of snow, you are judged by being somewhat correct in your forecast... if you aren't sure, don't predict it. If I was this inaccurate in my job and had the gall to blame others for my mistake, I can make an accurate prediction of what would happen to me. I would suggest that this blog may be a bad idea as you are going to alienate the viewers you so desperately need. Thanks Lezak- nice work.

Matt

Matt,

I am not blaming anyone! I just made an observation that the computer models lead us into the forecast. We still made the call and blew the forecast. You are likely correct in me being a bit defensive, but only a little bit. We just want to get the forecast correct. And we usually do.

Gary

***************
Gary:

I'd like to thank you for your commitment to keeping us informed. I don't think many KC area residents actually try to understand the science and happenstance (ie sudden movements of storms) that affect the data moment to moment.

Keep up the great work!

Thomas,

It is too bad this storm turned north. I hate ending the winter season with this bad taste in our mouths. Thank you for the support.

Gary

**********************
You guys are the best weather team out there. You did the best you could with the info that you had. You blew away the competition and not to mention the NWS that had had a forcast all day Sunday of us getting 8-10" Monday and Monday night.

Its a crazy year, but I can not imagine looking anywhere else when severe weather hits this spring.

Thanks for keeping the blog so active. It adds such a personal touch to our great weather team at KSHB, not to mention keeping us informed to important changes to the forcast.

Joe

JOE:
We truly appreciate your post... thank you for noticing our difference!
Jamie

*****************
Weather Team:

I know that if I want a true, accurate account of what the weather will do - I can watch you! I always trust your forcast as the best.

I too, was disappointed (I'm a teacher), but these things happen. We should be used to it here in the Mid-West.

Keep up the good work and thank you for all you do.

Jennifer S.

JENNIFER:
We have a lot of disappointed teachers (and students) on the blog today! Sorry it wasn't more exciting for you. Thanks for the nice comments... and keep on blogging! :)
Jamie

*******************
Gary and team, the most important thing here, at least in my opinion, is that KC missed out on another big snow storm. We are cursed! One of my brothers, who now lives in Denver to be closer to alpine snow conditions, has always said (with toungue in cheek) that Native Americans who lived around KC must have done something hundreds of years ago to direct snow storms away from Kansas City...I mean, they probably didn't want to trudge around in a foot or two of snow all the time and risk having a teepee going airborne. All joking aside, yesterday was just one more snowstorm that was a bust for KC...I believe that brings the total snowstorm busts to 1,428 in my 39 years in KC. Okay, okay, I said I would stop joking. This is serious though...

Perhaps I didn't refresh your weather page yesterday (I would just click on the link to the blog), but even up until last night, the weather forecast I was seeing on my PC on your "weather home page" was calling for "4" to 8" of snow in the metro tonight". I thought that was odd because you were blogging about maybe just a dusting or just an inch or two. Did you not update that page? Did you mean to do so, but forgot? If viewers or even nonviewers were just checking that weather page to see what KC's most accurate team was saying, then, well, I can see why they think you and the team were so off. I mean, I kept seeing it all day and thought, "Hmm. I wonder why they don't update or change that?"

Enough of this, enjoy your vacation!
Jay

JAY:
Ohhhhh that dayplanner graphic! We were updating the blog so often... answering viewer emails... etc... that it seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle. The blog is really the place to go for the latest info. But we will do better next time with the graphic. Good point, and thanks for pointing it out!
Jamie

******************
Word to the NWS et al: In my humble estimation, one should not issue a Winter Storm Warning 12 hours or more from the point where such conditions could be possible. In the old days in Oklahoma, often they would wait a bit longer and only when it was fairly sure (and they even got these wrong, I will admit), would they issue a warning - a Watch maybe - that is what Watches are for, but Warnings are imminent, and in this case, it wasn't, not at the time.

Gary, you can't be blamed for making a discussion based on models - everyone did and does nowadays. This is a lesson to all that models often are wrong, and any model more than a day or two out still is pretty worthless, except to give a "what-if". Personally, perhaps one could point out, if one wanted to, what might happen, incredibly, if one model happens to be right, but forecast more conseratively, until close enough to be more sure - this applies to everyone in the industry.

I like your forecasts, but this is part of "being in the kitchen" - the praise with the criticism, and I don't think I've been overly strong with my blogs, none of which on this one have appeared. Never mind, doesn't mind me - I am not right a lot of the time either.

Dog

Dog,
Good point. Thanks for your opinion! We are slowly getting to all the comments (there are a LOT)... so we didn't not post yours on purpose! Just not YET. :)
Jamie

*****************
Dear Gary and crew,

Kudos for you and the crew for your on-going-best-tv weather reports.
I have a question regarding mid/late March snowstorms...back in the early 1950s KC had a very heavy, mid/late March snowfall. Probably 8 plus inches. The next day was all sun and blue skies, and it was incredibly beautiful.
I still have some snow pictures I took that next day, but I didn't date them.
Question: Where could I find out the date of that snowfall? I've googled it every way I can think of with no results.
Hope you can point me in the right direction, but Thanks, in any case.

MIKE:
Weather info that far back will not be available (for free) online. If you REALLY want to find the exact info... you might find it for a fee here:
http://www5.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/script/webcat.pl?action=ALL

NOW... I also sat down with one of our record books and these are the dates I found significant March snow that are around your description:

March 1, 1953- 4.6"
March 8, 1958- 4.4"
March 14, 1960- 5.8"
March 15, 1960- 8"
March 21, 1955- 5"

The data I looked at goes from 1889 to 1993... and these are the highest amounts for March from 1950 to 1960. Keep in mind, while the airport may have gotten 5"... other KC suburbs could have gotten more/less.

Hope that helps you!!
Jamie

***************
The one theme I see in all the comments is everyone wanted this storm regardless of the forecast. I did too. At 9:30 AM on KMBZ (Monday), Gary was the first, even before the NWS, to back off and say what he saw. That's his job. Others were still predicting several inches which made Home Depot and hardware stores happy. Even the NAM models that are used by practically all meteorologists, were all wrong. They weren't even close and they are made by the three biggest weather computers in the world. I think that alone, says a lot for Gary, Jamie and the team.
Gary B.

GARY:
We really appreciate your nice comments! Thanks for noticing our difference!

*****************
Well gang,

It's been my experience when I get an aviation weather briefing, the flight service station will only give a 36 hour forcast.

I think there's a good reason for this. I don't think you can really predict a storm like that until it is almost right over you, especially when it comes to low pressure systems and/or convective sigmets or other WX advisories. These things track and change constantly and rely on more factors than just the general location of the jetstream.

I think the general public should be more aware of this when you are giving a forecast more than 3 days out if there is a forecast for storms or other unstable atmospheric conditions.

You guys do pretty good as it is and I wouldn't hold you to anything near the standard you all are trying to accomplish. Ratings or not, I think the 'general' public expects way to much without the real knowledge of how weather actually works.

That's why we have weather reports in every news cast, and even at that things can change before the 5 o'clock or next news cast especially here in the midwest. Just wait until we get just outside the busy severe WX season and we start getting pop-up thunderstorms (TRSA's/TV's) that aren't moving along a frontal weather system (hehe).

Keep up the good work and don't let everyone try to hold you to a 7 day wish cast.

JEFF:
Thanks for your take on things... we agree!
Jamie

*****************
Part of me is happy that we only got a little snow, and the other part really bummed that we didn't get as much snow!! Now, hopefully sping is right around the corner.

I love it when it snows because everyone is outside playing...and you have the excuse to drink hot cocoa, but I also LOVE it when it's warm outside. But what can I say, I'm from Texas..and all of my family is there!!!!!

Have a great day off Gary, and thank you NBC Action news weather team for being there for Kansas City...You guys rock!!
---Hope

HOPE:
Thanks so much! Gary and Jeff love snow, so I know they were REALLY wanting it to happen for us. I pretty much DON'T like snow... but this time, I did want it! Oh well, you can't win them all! I am from Ohio, and my family has gotten two snowy winters in a row, while I have been here in KC with nothing!! Gary teases me that I brought the dry conditions with me. :) Hang in there, it does look warmer for next week!
Jamie

***************
We enjoy your forecasts and count on them
for their accuracy.
Though we are no longer pet owners, we enjoyed our late cat for 16 years.

As residents of Liberty and the Northland we would like to request that you add Highway 152 to your maps (as other stations
have done).

Thank you for your good work and your cheerful personality, Sally and Tom Jones.

Sally & Tom:
Thanks for posting... we are happy you found us, and that you enjoy our work. We will look into adding 152 Highway to our maps. It might be harder than we think... as our highways are typically done by groups. ie, if we add 152 Highway... there might be 20 other smaller highways that automatically load in as well. We try to keep the maps less-cluttered looking... so we'll see how it looks! If there is ever a strong storm tracking through... we do have the capability to zoom down to street level... and in that case... 152 *would* be on our maps!

******************
Just a general comment about how your weather forecast is geared to the metro population & not to the poor farmer who may desperately need moisture for his crops & we are more concerned about how some rain on the weekend may mess up some of our recreational activties.
Robert who grew up on a farm.

Robert,

I don't know what you are talking about. We concentrate on the farmer and never downplay the benefits of the rainfall.

Gary