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Hello, there... and good morining! I bring news of winter weather!
A WINTER STORM WARNING has been posted for Doniphan and Atchison counties in Kansas and for Andrew and Buchanan counties in Missouri. This is in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning.
A WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to include more of the area, indluding the immediate Metro. You can see a map of the included counties here:
NWS WATCHES & WARNINGS
The track of the storm is still the main thing that will determine how MUCH snow we get.
TODAY... we are not expecting any accumulations. We will see on and off light rain... possibly mixing with snow or sleet at times. Heavier mixed precip should begin tonight and continue into Monday morning. Then the switch-over to snow happens!
Looking at the data this morning... I am forecasting an early prediction of 3 to 6 inches here in the Metro... with 6 to 10 PLUS off to the north... and 1 to 3 inches down to the south. This will probably change!! I will update this through the day, and will try to get a good map grapic to post later.
Have a good one!
Posted by at March 19, 2006 8:45 AM
Good Morning Jamie,
I was wanting to get alittle advise. I have to travel to Garnet Kansas tomorrow to pick my son up from his dad. What time do you think I should be back in Olathe by to miss traveling in the storm?
Hello, there! Tomorrow... I would say the earlier the better for travel. During the am, it will likely just be rain and sleet falling. It now looks like it will change to all sleet in the afternoon... and then to snow in the late afternoon/early evening. Travel safe!
Posted by: Melinde at March 19, 2006 9:52 AM
Your expertise is certainly among the best! I think the newspaper article is a great service to the readers. However I might suggest you check with your local Emergency Management office, or the Weather folks in Pleasant Hill about mentioning hail sizes and the use of the term "marble"! As a weather spotter myself, that term was dropped several years ago. Why? marbles come in a variety of sizes from less than 1/2 inch in diameter, to larger than a quarter. Describing hail as a marbel (even though it is the size of a large marbel) will not provide the National Weather folks enough information to consider issuing an alert or warning whereas the same hail stone described as the size of a quarter could.
I did not personally work on the Hail size article... but you are right!!
Here is another hail scale I found:
Golf Ball 1.75"
Tennis Ball 2.50"
Base Ball 2.75"
Posted by: jbennett10 at March 19, 2006 12:16 PM
I have a similar question but the other direction. I am flying to Dallas tomorrow on a 7:15am flight. Will I need to leave earlier than normal?
I take it you will be driving to KCI? I would plan on giving yourself a little extra time in the morning. It should mainly be sleet... with snow mixing in at times. The earlier you go, the better the roads should be. But watch for slick spots, which will be developing overnight! Be sure to call ahead to make sure your flight is on time!!
Posted by: Norene at March 19, 2006 12:24 PM
Looks like the latest NAM and Forecast Discussion shows temperatures warmer than expected shifting the heavier snow towards Nebraska. The discussion seemed to start showing more concern for a freezing rain event. Two inches of snow on top of a quarter inch of ice would be just about as bad as the original 6" predicted. Just wondered what you thought.
Things are changing. The low looks farther south on the 0z nam. An update at 10pm.
Posted by: Gary at March 19, 2006 1:58 PM
Just as I finished posting a comment about lower snowfall expectations, the NWS via the Weather Channel has upped the local inches to 6 to 10. All the NAM maps and everything I can find, had shown it slowly moving away. Obviously the cold front or something has suddenly moved in some direction. I'm thankful I don't have your job.
I don't know what models TWC uses to come up with their forecast. I also do not know how many times a day they update it. What I *do* know is that for an event like this... you really need someone concentrating on the LOCAL level. Like us! :)
It is a tough forecast... still looking like 3 to 6" for the Metro... with 1-3" south and 6-10 north. We'll see... it's still a ways off... not till tomrrow NIGHT!!
Posted by: Gary at March 19, 2006 2:35 PM
Greetings - so far in Blue Springs, where the NWS had a morning forecast of "rain likely", now downgraded to "sprinkles", we have not had anything whatsoever. This causes me to worry that the BSHE (Blue Springs Hole Effect) may affect this "big storm", leaving us with a meagre amount of moisture, and little, if any frozen stuff.
I don't know whether the forecasters in Norman seemed to be more right, but Pleasant Hill is often abysmally off in their forecast - I wouldnt be surprised to see the Watch downgraded later on to an Advisory, if that. I hope I am wrong and we get the much needed moisture, but it hasn't looked good here today. I smell a Duffill (where one misses out on what everyone else may get)... Forgive my frustration.
Like 10 minutes after you posted that, they dropped our Watch to an Advisory. :)
Posted by: StormDog at March 19, 2006 3:14 PM
Thanks for the great severe weather special on tv the other night. I went and bought KC paper to get the incert...
Thank you SO much... we had such a fun time working on that special. I am glad we have gotten such good feedback on it! :) Isn't the insert cool?
Posted by: Randy Senior at March 19, 2006 4:29 PM
I hate to say it, but my previous blog, not posted, suggested what the NWS says: "THE NAM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS...ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-
700MB POKING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL REDUCE
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR"
This leaves me wondering whether Blue Springs or even KC will see a large amount of precip - .25" is what I would bet, and if that is correct, it won't reduce the drought threat, although Nrn and NE MO may see significant amounts. But then again, that is what Pleasant Hill says - glad they aren't my MD!!!
Posted by: StormDog at March 19, 2006 4:49 PM
Do you plan on doing any type of "desktop" weather, i.e. like the weatherbug? thank you. p.s. i was so ready for 10" of snow but for some reason again my hopes were crushed.
Awww man... you guys are all being so depressing! It is not over! I said there could be changes... and good news for snow lovers... the storm is trending JUST a bit farther south on this evening's NAM. Of couse it's just one run... let's see what the rest of the data does tonight...
I am not sure about a weatherbug... but we do offer wireless weather to your cell phone and PDA! :)
Posted by: brad thompson at March 19, 2006 8:19 PM