« Morning Update |
| NEW DATA »
What a stressful forecast!
I've gotten lots of emails/phone calls today... everybody is wondering WHEN this thing is going to happen!! The rain/sleet we saw today was really LIGHT... but that will change tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Rain and sleet will develop and continue through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall, we may go into a period of prolonged SLEET... with some sleet accumulations. THEN tomorrow evening... the switch to snow here in the Metro.
One change in this storm's path... and it will bust. But based on the data we are seeing this afternoon... this is what we are going with right now.
Snowfall Forecast Through Tuesday:
Click to enlarge
(There won't be a sharp cut-off between different areas... it would be a gradual transition...)
Keep in mind... in the Metro... we don't change to snow until Monday evening now. So things CAN still change. If the storm track turns farther south, we will likely see the heavier amounts shift down to us here. But right now, this storm is taking aim to our north. We have to watch it CLOSELY, though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by at March 19, 2006 5:12 PM
... Well I'm depressed... Thanks for the update at least. As hard as these things are to predict (since rain or sleet decreases snowfall amounts drastically), if anyone can do it, you guys can! Is Gary back yet, or did he decide to stay in Oklahoma afterall?
Don't be depressed just yet! At least we will see some accumulations... maybe more than I am forecasting at this point. We just have to wait and see where the storm tracks! Gary is back, and should be in tomorrow!
Posted by: Beth Johnson at March 19, 2006 6:02 PM
*sigh* What a let down of a storm. :(
It's not over till the upper low swings through! There's still a CHANCE!!
Posted by: Dave C. at March 19, 2006 6:43 PM
Hey i just wanted to ask why does the weather channel have Appleton getting 3-5 inches of snow and KC 10-16 inches of snow when you look at there website. Im sorry but i really hope they are right just because i want the snow :). How much sleet could Appleton City see from this storm.
I do not know why the weather channel is forecasting that. I can only speak for what we are seeing. Maybe 1 to 3" for Appleton. But it could change. Gary will have the last say tomorrow (the snow won't come till Monday night).
Posted by: Daniel at March 19, 2006 7:40 PM
Hi Jamie - I don't blame you at all, but the NWS really hyped this, and as usual, they have backed off. Finally at 1957, we do have light rain at Blue Springs - all I want is abundant precip, never mind what form it falls in, but really, I still despair - the BSHE seems to often rule here.
I believe the models are totally out to lunch, often, and the old days when intuition and knowledge of past history of events ruled forecasts might have been as effective as these computer models was not too far from all of this technology. Then again, I am an old ***$%%% nearly a half century old, so what do I know????
Glad to hear you are getting rain finally!! NAM is farther south... oh come on GFS....
Posted by: StormDog at March 19, 2006 8:00 PM
Jamie it looks like the track of the storm was moving north according to your snowfall predictions but are there any models showing this storm moving further south that would put us in this potentially big snow storm,and in many cases I agree with your response from the other message that it all depends on the track of the storm it has gone south before many times.
I am looking at the new data as it comes in. I might be updating my snowfall forecast to put the Metro in the high-end of my 3 to 6 inches. The NAM is trending father south... will wait to see what the GFS does...
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at March 19, 2006 8:06 PM
When exactly do you expect the upper low to swing through? I realize this storm is moving slowly, so do you have an estimate of when we will have a better idea of the snowfall totals? Gary said he may be coming back for this event, any word on that? Can't wait for the 10 o'clock forcast! Oh, and thanks for the long hours you're putting in lately.
Thanks for writing in! Gary came back today... in fact, I just had a conference call with him and Jeff Penner! :) We are looking at the new data... and the upper low is trending just a bit farther south. That would put the Metro on the higher end of my 3 to 6 inches. It will all happen MONDAY NIGHT!! :) Gary will be here tomorrow to give the last updates before the snow!
Posted by: Janine Johnson at March 19, 2006 8:20 PM
Dunno...its gonna be close...looking the the most recent NAM, I am thinking that the low will slide a bit south of town..but maybe not enough to catch the full wrap around...I think the temps will fall enough, but not sure if the surface temp will cooperate. This is a toughy!
It's definitely farther south... just a little more... and BAM! But I am considering bringing a few more inches into the Metro for the 10pm news. I will check out the GFS and then decide.
Posted by: Scott at March 19, 2006 8:40 PM
Silly question. WHy is the metro under a Winter Weather Advisory when other counties virtually circling the metro are under a Winter Strom Warning with virtually the same forcast for the counties.
It does look a little weird on the map, doesn't it? Here is the NWS definition for each of the different alerts:
ADVISORY: Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...
WATCH: There is a POTENTIAL for significant snow, sleet or ice ACCUMULATIONS that may impact travel.
WARNING: SIGNIFICANT amounts of snow, sleet or ice are EXPECTED OR OCCURING. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
After reading through each one... it seems they probably should have left the Watch up for the Metro. They may re-issue...
Posted by: Brian at March 19, 2006 9:00 PM
Here in Grain Valley, the temperature is falling rather quickly. I have a weather channel wireless weather station, and the temperature has gone from 41.0 F to 38.1 F in just an hour. We have been having sleet, but it is still melting quickly at the surface. I'm hoping for a continued quick drop in temps... where can I access various models online? I lost all of my links from meteorology class in college.
Thanks for the update! Here are some good links:
Posted by: Beth at March 19, 2006 9:37 PM