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Hi Gary (and the rest of the Weather Team)

I just read the NWS disucssions, and based on what they say, this thing does look real. I am a little bit worried about the East winds (although that would be good) making this a bust. These pesky east winds seem to cause a lot of problems, and often times are not even forecast. However, this time it appears like NWS has that thought in mind.

It is looking like a very active pattern the next several days. I have read that the next 6-10 days may well show some of the worst severe/tornado occurrences in the past 20 years. Is this part of your weather Theory? What about summer, does this pattern occur in the summer? Is this weather pattern that you have been talking about something new that may become a trend?

I really wish you would write more about this weather pattern -- perhaps a paper or something. Have you named this weather pattern yet?

I ask many questions because your thoughts on this have me wondering. If we have another outbreak of twisters like what they are thinking that would be NUTS. Anyway, please let me know your thoughts.

Brian

Brian,

The weather pattern we are in now is unique. This is part of my theory: Every year a unique weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. This pattern and cycle continues until it dies out around mid summer. Then, a new pattern evolves and sets up again by the next November 10th.

So, we are likely just cycling through the same pattern we have been in. It was dry in January and February, but there was no lack of storm systems. This is why I anticipate a wild spring. The next 10 days look quite interesting, but let's see how each storm sets up.

Gary

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Do you think that long-track tornadoes are possible today or are you leaning more toward a squall line forming with the main threats being large hail and wind gusts?

Keep up the good work!!

Kinley

Kinley,

It will depend on how the thunderstorms evolve. Will they be isolated and if they are for how long. A line of thunderstorms could fill in and reduce the threat. At this moment I think that we will have a serious threat of tornadic supercells late this afternoon.

Gary

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Gary, I have a question. My husband and I were discussing the threat of tornadoes with a squall line. During the March 12 outbreak, a tornado warning was issued for our area, but my husband told me that there was no chance of a squall line producing a tornado and to ignore the warning. I learned that they CAN and DO produce tornadoes, however, they are small and shortlived. Still, they are dangerous! Which one of us is right? Should we ignore the threat with a squall line, or should we take it serious and get to shelter if a warning is issued, perhaps today??

KIM:
YOU are right! Squall lines can and do produce tornadoes! They are usually not as long-lived as one with a supercell thunderstorm, but they can be dangerous. Do not take these warnings lightly! VERY strong straight-line winds can also occur with a squall line... and these can sometimes be just as dangerous as a tornado! In fact, after a microburst event, the NWS often has to go out to a community to DETERMINE if the damage is from straigh- line winds or a tornado!
Stay safe!
Jamie

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Hey Gary, Not really wanting large hail or tornado's today, but anxious to see some good Thunderstorms.. NWS stated in the forecast dicussion .."CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A NOCTURNAL MCS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT." Nocturnal MCS? Are those the storms that pretty much last all night?

DAVE:
You are correct... it is just an MCS during the nighttime hours. Depending on how large it is, and how long it lasts... it could be labled an MCC:

MCC - Mesoscale Convective Complex. A large MCS, generally round or oval-shaped, which normally reaches peak intensity at night. The formal definition includes specific minimum criteria for size, duration, and eccentricity (i.e., "roundness"), based on the cloud shield as seen on infrared satellite photographs:

Size: Area of cloud top -32 degrees C or less: 100,000 square kilometers or more (slightly smaller than the state of Ohio), and area of cloud top -52 degrees C or less: 50,000 square kilometers or more.

Duration: Size criteria must be met for at least 6 hours.
Eccentricity: Minor/major axis at least 0.7.

We'll see!
Jamie

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Hey Gary,
I am so excited that we may get some storms today. I have been watching you set this up since like last week sometime. You really are amazing at what you do. It's just amazing to me how accurate you are all the time. Anyway, have a great day and try to relax a little(you'll likely be busy later). I'll be watching.

RYAN:
We are glad you will stick with us through the thunderstorms today! There is already a tornado watch to our west, and several severe thunderstorm warnings across Kansas and Oklahoma. Stay tuned...

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Gary, could the storms out in central Kansas right now stabilize the atmosphere sufficiently to help preclude major storms this afternoon?

The PDS watch just issued seems to discount this possibility but I wanted to hear your opinion.

Thanks for all the work you do.

JOHN:
Sometimes storms early in the day can help to stabilize the atmosphere. But remember on March 12th... we had several rounds of supercell thunderstorms... one after another. The threat will continue for us through the afternoon.
Jamie

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This should be interesting to watch...I wonder if we can get enough instability..I see it to the west, and we seem to be on the eastern edge...I presume that would wash over as the dryline approaches...

SCOTT:
We may be on the eastern edge... but the storms that form in the favorable atmosphere will likely track in our direction!

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I also second Brian's thought on a paper for your theory..I want to see it too!

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Gary,
We depend a lot on your forcasts, and also listen to 106.5. You do a great job. Do you expect this to blanket the entire area, or do you expect it to track more to the north or the south, as it seems the last several have done? Also, how does this look for the Truman and Lake of the Ozarks areas? Our family lives down there and don't have any local tv.

Thanks,
Dee

DEE:
The entire viewing area is under the "moderate" risk for severe weather today. The threat decreases as you head out toward the Lake of the Ozarks... but there is still a "slight" risk there.

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What time are you thinking these storms will begin in the metro area? I am at work and would like to head home before any threatening weather occurs if at all possible. Thanks!

KATIE:
The storms will like be affecting parts of the Metro any minute now... there is actually one just north downtown. There will be another round later this afternoon and evening. You can look at our ESP radar here to see where the storms are:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/kshb/we_digital_doppler/0,1925,KSHB_9432,00.html
Jamie

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First of all, I just have to tell you how much I appreciate this blog! Since I work in an office and can't always catch the TV forecast, this gives me the peace of mind that I know exactly what's going on with the weather!!

I was curious why the NWS hasn't issued any warnings yet - especially since the chance for tornados is so strong?

Thanks!
Traci

TRACI:
We are glad the blog can bring you some peace of mind! I am busy answering comments right now, but if we go into continuous coverage... I might have to abandon the blog to help Gary! But we will try to keep you updated as much as we can!! No warnings have been issued for the storms JUST west of us yet because they have not reached the criteria they need to reach. There are warnings farther off to the west, though!
Jamie

How high does the dewpoint need to get to fuel severe thunderstorms? Does the CAP matter more than the dewpoint? Thanks for all the great work!
Derek

Derek,

We can have dewpoints in the 30s and have severe thunderstorms. When Lawrence had the microburst or tornado on March 12th the dewpoint was 36 degrees. The moisture was transporting just above the surface.

Gary

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I would love if you could post video files of severe weather statements (i.e., when you break into programming with a weather alert) on your website. Those of us at work without a radio can't follow what is going on as well. Is there a reason you don't do this now?

MARIA:
That is a wonderful idea! I think we are actually talking about doing this... I will pass it on to our web department!
Jamie

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Looking at the regional radar..looks like the line near wichita seems to have tremendous outflow!..and actually looks to be forming a line ahead with that serving as a strong inflow...Looks like these are becoming more linear...that being the case, would we expect more isolated MCSs to back form behind?

SCOTT:
There are several lines forming... also some supercells out there. We will be at risk for thunderstorms until the dryline comes through... which will be this evening.
Jamie

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Hi Gary,
I have always been fascinated with severe weather. I'm glad that you are there to keep us informed. That line out west looks pretty bad. I am anxious to see how this evening turns out.

ANGELA:
We have the whole weather team in because of the severe weather threat. Right now, the only warnings for our viewing area are severe thunderstorm warnings in Kansas. But the warnings will likely spread into the Metro as we go later in the day. We are thinking a tornado watch may be issued, too.
Stay tuned!
Jamie

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Hi Gary & Jamie!
I am here in Lee's Summit/Longview Lake and we have a thunderstorm coming in right now, nothing serious quite yet, but looks like we could get some strong storms later today and this evening. It's raining hard, some thunder and lightning, but looking at the clouds I am not getting the WOW factor by looking at the clouds like I hoped I would. Maybe later. I'm certainly happy that the sky is watering my lawn and not the water company.

MIKE:
Thanks for the report! That first round of storms that came through was pretty much just a line... maybe some hail, and gusty winds... but no real tornado threat. There are still storms out there, however, that could produce isolated tornadoes! We are expecting these storms to affect the area between now and 7 or 8 pm.
Jamie

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Do you have updates on what this storm is doing and if there should be a break to get home?

COURTNEY:
There may be a few brief breaks in the activity, but there is more to the west. So the chance of thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours. So far, no reports of a tornado with any of these storms. Just gusty winds, some hail and heavy rain. But we will keep watching it.
Jamie

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The first line that came through was most unimpressive. A heavy shower, one clap of thunder and it was over in about 10 minutes.

JENNIFER:
We experienced the same thing here! Thanks for the report!
Jamie

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I've been watching your ESP on the web site while I'm at work. I will refresh the site every 15 minutes or so (as work allows). One time the line of storms was on the west side of town, then they were in the middle of town, but then they were on the west side of town again. Now they are on the East side of town. Are they really backtracking or is it because I have to keep refreshing the web page?

DAISY'S MOM:
There have been two really good line-looking thunderstorm segments that have been on radar. One went through and is to the East... and another linear segment was to our West. So it might look like they are backtracking, but they are two separate lines.

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could u plz put storm tracker on esp on the net for that storm just south of chanute that is producing the tornado i would like to see if its moving towards appleton city

DANIEL
I put it up for a few minutes... hopefully you got to see it. Watch Gary at 5 and 6pm... for more.
Jamie

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Hi Gary,
In monitoring in the ESP images today, it seemed like from my perspective that there may have been a delay between the images shown and the actual weather activity in my area (Gardner, KS), even when the indicated timestamp was current. For example, several images showed the severe storms right over my vicinity, however when I looked outside (forecasting rule #1), it showed mainly clear skies. Is there a possible delay I need to be aware of?

TERRY:
Our ESP system has the capability to look into the future, too. Today we have been playing around with "Future Path"... so if you saw a little clock right next to the ESP logo... this was likely forecasting into the future. That could have been what you saw.

Or, there was another point today, where we stopped getting data from Level 2 at the NWS. We had to switch from Pleasant Hill to Topeka... so you may have seen the old data before we switched.

Hope that helps,
Jamie

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Do we have enough instability left? I wonder ultimately if the lack of surface heating enhanced the progression to linear storms. I see a couple of cells SW, but the radar doesn't look quite as threatening now...

SCOTT:
The storms have definitely been weakening as they move into our area. All the supercells that developed to our southwest have weakened as they moved NE. I would have to guess it is just too cool here to sustain them... bcs when they get going in the 70 degree temps, they look healthy... but then they move into the 60s and they fall apart. Still worth watching... but we've dodged the bullet so far.
Jamie

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yeah, as this progressed this morn, I thought the cloud cover would prevent it here...saw a glimpse of sun earlier today, but not near long enough. I guess its good that it missed!

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Here in Lees Summit...just had a burst of pea/small marble size hail...about 3 minutes worth.

SCOTT:
Thanks for the report!

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Just wanted to let the team know we had marble size hail in lee's summit at 6:45 and golf ball size hail at 7pm tonight!

I was driving home at 6:45 and ALMOST pulled over on 291 south it was raining and hailing so hard. 20 minutes later it was all over, what a quick storm!

Tim in GW

TIM:
Thank you so much for your report! It can be scary driving through storms like that! Glad you made it safe & sound!
Jamie

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I know it's still several days out, but you said there's the possibility for more severe storms on Sunday. Since the temperatures will be significantly warmer, do you feel this could result in a worse setup than today since cool temps kept storms from keeping their strength?

MARLINA:
It could be. With warmer temperatures, comes greater instability... we will have to watch it closely!
Jamie

Gary,
by far you have the best weather predictions in town. However, the action news website is not that great. It would be nice if I could check the radar and see a detailed forecast for each day. Maybe even a loop for the radar if you feel the need. Just a thought to help you do a even better job of helping KC know the weather!
Great job on the storm predictions and coverage tonight.
Justin

JUSTIN:
You *CAN* check our radar, ESP, on our website any time! Here is the link that will take you directly there:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/kshb/we_digital_doppler/0,1925,KSHB_9432,00.html

We have a day-planner forecast graphic for today's forecast:
http://web.kshb.com/kshb/weather/todays_forecast.shtml

And the 7-day forecast here:
http://web.kshb.com/kshb/weather/sevenday_forecast.shtml

And the blog is always a great place to come to get more info on the forecast! Hope that helps you!
Jamie

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Here's my day in a nutshell from my weather notes...

At 1500 CST, the Weather Alert radio sounded for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning covering numerous counties from west through southwest of us for a squall-line screaming northeast at over 60 mph - winds over 70 mph and quarter-sized hail had occurred. The rain-drops began falling, big and fat, then grew quickly torrential amidst bursts of snow-white lightning and booming thunder at 1519, lasting past 1530. During the next hour, intermittent showers and thunders wet the ground...and then stopped.

There hadn’t been much to our west through 1800 on the radar, mostly widely-scattered discrete cells to our southwest, and a herd of scattered cells passing by to our northwest towards Iowa. It didn’t appear to offer much more hope for additional activity. However, at 1850, I heard reports of what sounded like thunder, being in the restroom. Coming out to the office, the flashes of blue-white outside and the rifle-like thunder told me something had quickly blown up, and now was bearing down on us, and quickly!!! The rain swirled thickly outside, mist rising and rolling off of the deck, thunder sounding insistently... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning covered Jackson County as well for this line of thunder-squalls.

That was it for the evening, though I observed webs of lightning and a few thick cloud-to-ground strikes off to our east, after the storm had receded.

As of 2200, 23 tornado reports per SPC – southwestern Iowa, central and southeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska,and 6 in Missouri – Andrew County in northwest Missouri suffered 4 injuries, 4 homes destroyed, and once again, Sedalia, where it was reported “…tornado on the ground in city of Sedalia producing damage.

Another multi-tornado day, and we've still got Sunday and Wednesday-Thursday possibly, and consider this, what if we had more surface heating today? What if this had happened in mid-April? We might get what you'd call a "clean-sweep".

Later,
Dog

DOG:
Great recap of your day!! Hey, at least you didn't miss out on the fun this time around! We are getting ready for Sat night/Sunday and next week. It would be nice to have a longer break between possible events.
Jamie

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Jamie:

Yes, I noticed we lost about an hours worth of radar