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 March 26, 2006

Today's clouds... a sign of things to come!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 60
LOW: 33

What a nice weekend! Today we reached highs near 60 degrees. It was a little windy, but it sure felt nice! We started off the day with plenty of sunshine... and then high clouds started moving in. What is going on? These clouds moved in ahead of our next storm. You can see it this late afternoon over WY/CO:

march 25 500.gif
Click to enlarge

That storm will drag a weak cold front through us Monday... and ahead of it (tonight & Monday morning)... we have a good chance of scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder! We are not expecting severe weather with this system... that will come later in the week.

The SPC is using product called the "Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlooks". This will illustrate a general region that could experience severe weather a week or so down the road. We are included in the possible severe event, which would be this coming Thursday:

march 25 severe.gif
Click to enlarge

Forecasting that far out into the future will definitely bring about error... but it gives you a good idea of what could happen. The timing or exact location of storms may shift... but it does look like a good chance of severe weather somewhere on Thursday! Here is the surface map, generated by the GFS for Thursday:

march 25 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

It could get interesting... stay tuned!

Meantime, we will have comfortable temperatures this week... with highs in the 60s Monday/Tuesday... and 70s Wednesday/Thursday! Enjoy! :)

Have a good evening!
Jamie


Posted by at March 26, 2006 4:48 PM

Comments

**************
Hi - The Wx Channel's depiction of surface features uncannily looks a bit like March 12th - I hope not - I'd like some general thunder with lots of rain, but you can keep the hail and what-not. However, it would appear this next system has some interesting dynamics, but as you say, so far out, well... Still, if it occurs as progged now, March may well be another historic month, we'll see.

Love Pixs of Mags - it is so hard being a dog, eat sleep, etc..., eat, sleep,etc...

Parker is maintaining his weight on the weight control - 1.5 cups per day. But he still likes his tomatoes and cucumbers!!!

Dog

HI, DOG!
Yes, things will be interesting as we go into Thursday! I know what you mean about life as a dog... we went to Shawnee Mission dog park today, and Mags got sooooo muddy down by the water! But she didn't care one bit... she's so carefree! :) So do you just feed Parker one time a day? Or two small meals? We are feeding Mags once in the am, and once in the pm... but would like to switch to a one-meal-a-day plan. I wasn't sure if that is ok or what. Let me know what you think!
Thx!
Jamie

Posted by: StormDog at March 26, 2006 5:57 PM

*******************
Hi - being lazy, we feed Parker once a day in the evening - doesn't seem to bother him, except if we are late, or time comes, and we don't feed him, he comes up on our bed, vocalizes a bit, and then sits on top of us, which can be painful if his paws land on the wrong place - he's quite good at that, I can tell you!!! Once a day should be fine, I think.

My English friends call boy hooligans "Yobs" for "boy" spelled backwards. Therefore, Parker is a "Yob" and Sheba, the Shepard mix female is a "Lrig" (Lurig) - for "girl" spelled backwards!!! Believe me, Parker can be a "Yob" when he gets in one of his moods!!!
A canid terrorist, sometimes, I think!!!

Cheers,
Dog

Haha! That is cute... sounds like Parker keeps you on your toes! :) Thanks for the advice... I am going to talk to my husband about the feeding schedule tomorrow!
Jamie

Posted by: StormDog at March 26, 2006 8:31 PM

*****************
I read your post about wondering whether it's best to feed your dog once or twice a day. It really depends on the type of breed and their activity level. One other important thing to consider is whether or not your breed is susceptible to a condition called "bloat". This can occur when a dog has eaten a large meal and then runs or jumps around a lot. The full stomach can twist over on itself and basically cut off blood supply to the stomach, causing severe problems. My dog is a breed susceptible to bloat so I feed her twice a day to cut down on food intake at one time. You can read about what breeds are susceptible to this problem here:
http://www.canismajor.com/dog/bloat.html

Hope that helped, have a great day!

MARLINA:
That is very interesting, thank you for that info! You know, I think Jeff Penner's wife's brother (did you follow that?...) has a dog that had that problem. I remember him saying something about a twisted stomach. AND I think it is a lab, too. Hmmm... I will have to do some research!
Thanks again,
Jamie

Posted by: Marlina at March 26, 2006 9:44 PM

Hi Guys:

Wow, here we go again? I get a daily newsletter, and here is what Larry Cosgrove Said:

"Using the 0z Mar 27 GFS as a background for this forecast, we can run through a checklist of preliminary synoptic parameters that favor severe weather:

1) Neutral or negative orientation of 500MB trough

2) High measures of positive vorticity (40 units) passing through that trough

3) Difluent appearance of upper system, especially at jet stream level

4) Intense speed maximum at 300MB (120 knots)

5) Dewpoint connection to Gulf of Mexico

6) Array of negative Lifted Index values over warm sector

7) Strong surface low (995MB)

8) Impressive UVV display adjacent to warm front and across warm sector

The system which passes from the High Plains into the Great Lakes late this week may posses virtually every factor that is conducive to the formation of supercell thunderstorms. Some parameters may arise which will "seal the deal" (CAPE, helicity, CINH, all better left to near term modeling of the atmosphere). But for now, we can draw a polygon bounded by Houston TX....Chickasha OK....Concordia KS....Omaha NE....Winterset IA....Columbia MO....Little Rock AR....Lake Charles LA and figure on a dangerous display of twisters, hail, and high winds.

A heavy rain and severe thunderstorm threat seems probable in the 144-168 hour range from the central and lower Great Plains into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, and yet another convective system may be present around the heartland of the U.S. by Days 9 and 10."

I am not sure if you want to post that or not, but maybe you can re-word or something!

Good Luck forecasting this!

Brian


Brian,

Like with each weather event, especially severe weather at this time of the year, we must look at these things as it gets closer. So, more on this Tuesday or Wednesday.

Gary


Posted by: Brian at March 27, 2006 7:51 AM

**********************

hey jamie. i think you guys are the greatest weather team ever. no matter what anyone else says you guys are right way more than any other weather team around. i especially love watching you jamie. you are so beautiful. anyway keep up the good work guys

James,

Thanks! We love Jamie too!

Gary

Posted by: james at March 27, 2006 2:57 PM

***********************
Hmmm..I am definitely finding the NAM 18Z 500 vort run interesting for 78-84 hr. I will be interested to see the surface analysis as we get closer to see if we get a warm front triple point onto the low. Based on RH and MSLP, looks like we will some some moisture, some warmth, and a jetstream to work with with. Should prove to be interesting!

Scott,

More on this as it gets a bit closer.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at March 27, 2006 3:48 PM

 
 

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