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Rainfall Totals

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 67
LOW: 54

Thanks to everyone for sending in your rainfall totals! What a storm! Here is an overview of who got what:

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

You can read comments under last night's blog entry for more totals. And while we're talking rainfall totals... here is a great email we received from David, one of our bloggers:

I want to inform you about an organization that I belong to called Community Collaborative Rain Hail and Snow network, or CoCoRaHS for short (pronounce Co Co Ra.) It is a network of volunteers that collect and report rain, snow and hail every day. All reports are plotted on a map. Their objective is to create a very comprehensive network of weather reporters across the country to pick up on precipitation trends. It is a very amazing network and many people are going to benefit from this program. They are in great need of more volunteers from Kansas and Missouri. For more information here is the link to their home page, http://cocorahs.org/. Please consider it.

This evening... there are still some spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms out there. So I will continue a 30% chance of rain this evening and overnight, as waves continue to spin around our upper low. The low is now in Iowa... you can see it spinning on the satellite loop... pretty impressive:

Click image to animate the most current satellite loop

That low will slowly move north and away from Kansas City for Monday. That means, we can expect dry conditions and even a little sunshine! Temperatures will be on a warming trend... with 70s Monday... and near 80 on Tuesday! We are still watching a system that could bring us more thunderstorms by Wednesday. Stay tuned!

What a great race today... congrats to all who participated in the Trolley Run!!

Jamie

Posted by at 3:45 PM

10PM Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 61
LOW: 55

The rain just won't quit! We will continue to see showers through the overnight... especially on the Kansas side, as our upper wave rotates through. Rainfall amounts are now running between 1 and 2"... just as Gary promised a few days ago! :) Some localized places have seen 3"... and we do have flood warnings in effect for Henry, Johnson, Cass and Bates Counties in Missouri... through Sunday.

Please send in your updated rainfall amounts tomorrow, and I will post them on the blog and try to get them on the air, too.

So.... what will Sunday bring? Well, there is still the chance of a few spotty showers in the morning (hopefully LIGHT)... as we need to get the Trolley Run in!! NBC Action News is a proud sponsor... and many of us will be running. Come out and cheer us on!

Sunday late morning/early afternoon... much like today... we could see a dry period. Perhaps even some sunshine! But the sun will only help to destabilize the atmosphere... and that could lead to additional showers/thunderstorms later in the day. When it rains, it pours!

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:22 PM | Comments (13)

Our next wave of rain/thunderstorms

Good afternoon everyone,

The upper low that was over the southwest is now ejecting out and holding together enough to bring us a nice band of rain. A few thunderstorms are also possible between 4 PM and 9 PM tonight. We are anticipating 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch rainfall amounts as this band moves through later today.

Jamie will have a list of rainfall totals later this evening. Please let her know your storm totals later on so she can include your location.

So, this storm isn't over yet. Have a great day.

Gary

Posted by at 12:52 PM | Comments (10)

Weekend Rain

Good morning! Just thought I would do an early update... on rainfall amounts so far... and the chance of additional rainfall later today. Here are some area numbers as of 7am:

KCI: 1.05"
DOWNTOWN KC: .97"
LAWRENCE: 1.23"
SW LAWRENCE: 1.75"
ST. JOSEPH: 1.36"
SEDALIA: 1.43"
KNOB NOSTER: .74"
OLATHE: .73"
TOPEKA: 2.19"
EMPORIA: 1.55"
CHILLICOTHE: 1.07"
GREENWOOD, MO: 1.20"
SOUTHERN KC: 1.20"
PRAIRIE VILLAGE: 1.10"
LEAVENWORTH: 1.50"
LEES SUMMIT: .83"
GARDNER, KS: .90"
CLINTON: 1.3"
WARRENSBURG: 2.00"
NORTHERN LENEXA: 1.21"
BLUE SPRINGS: .91"
MERRIAM: 1.10"

If you want to send us your totals... I will add them to the list! Right now, we have some rain moving out of the area... now exiting the Trenton/Chillicothe areas to the east of KC. We still have some areas of drizzle in the Metro... and this could hold on as the morning wears on.

So what about our rain chances later today? Well, we are watching a developing area of rain to our Southwest:

You can see the area I am referring to, to the south and southwest of Wichita. This is in association with our upper low. There is still the chance this area of showers and thunderstorms will move in as the afternoon goes on. So while we will have a dry period, things could change later today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce heavy rain... and possibly some severe weather. We will keep you posted!

Have a good day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:49 AM | Comments (11)

Rain potential closing on Saturday

Good evening! The upper low is forming to our northwest on Saturday. If this happens, then once again we are in the wrong quadrant of the storm. Before this happens we should get one very nice band of rain tonight putting our totals up to the one inch of rain that I promised would be wide spread. So, we shouldn't complain, but I can imagine the disappointment for some of you out there. I am sorry if I have gotten a bit defensive on my comments but this only happens when a storm begins to frustrate us all. And, once again, this storm is frustrating. This is why I call it a "cut-off low, weatherperson's woe".

Remember......We did get a nice soaking. There is still some potential for a second band of rain, but when the upper low forms to your northwest you get DRY SLOTTED every time.

Have a great weekend. Everything else is going well. Windy had some issues on Monday so it was an emotional week, but she is all better now and enjoying the new puppy Breezy. Windy, Breezy, and Stormy are all adjusting and loving each other. Windy is on her way to 17 years old in November. The way she acted today I think she will make it.

Gary

Posted by at 9:19 PM | Comments (6)

Flood Watch

I have updated the map below... trying to keep it current!
FLOOD WATCHES in effect... remember... "TURN AROUND... DON'T DROWN"!

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* GIVEN CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS... PROLONGUED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. SEVERAL RIVERS... INCLUDING THE GRAND AND MARAIS DES CYGNES... AND THEIR TRIBURATES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING.

There is also a FLOOD WATCH out for areas west of there... out towards Topeka. Here is the difference between the two watch types:

FLASH FLOOD: Flash Floods are quick-rising floods usually occurring as the result of heavy rains over a short period of time, often only several hours or even less. A flash flood watch means conditions are favorable for heavy rain across the watch area... which may lead to flash flooding.

FLOOD: A Flood is a high flow or overflow of water from a river or similar body of water, occurring over a period of time too long to be considered a flash flood. A flood watch means that flooding is possible but not imminent in the watch area.

Posted by at 10:18 AM | Comments (25)

Here comes round 1

Our first band of thunderstorms, associate with the strong developing storm, will move through by 9 AM. We will then get a break before the heavier widespread band of rain and thunderstorms moves in later on. Below is the 7:45 AM ESP image. It will likely fall apart as it moves across the state line. It is only the beginning. Exciting! More later on the new data.

Click to enlarge (7:45 AM ESP RADAR)

Posted by at 7:47 AM | Comments (4)

Vertically stacked storm

Good morning everyone! Today we will talk about this storm which will become a classic cut off low, weatherperson's woe. It will likely become vertically stacked and thus very slow moving.

500 mb flow valid Friday morning

500 mb flow valid Saturday morning

500 mb flow valid Sunday morning
surface flow valid Sunday morning

Click on any map to enlarge them. The last two maps will clearly show what I am talking about concening what "vertically stacked" means. The 500 mb low (18,000 feet up) is directly over the surface low. No matter what level you look at the lows are lined up vertically, thus vertically stacked. This often happens when upper lows close off and become circular. Once this happens the waves rotating around the storm become less pronounced and thus the lifting is not as strong. But as it develops we could have a lot of rain, and then as it move off to the east we can expect wrap around rain. The latest NAM model produces 3 inches of rain everywhere. Right now my confidence on everyone getting one inch of rain is 100%. 2 inches of rain 50% and the chance of everyone getting three inches of rain is 20%.

More later....

Gary

Posted by at 9:59 AM | Comments (15)

STORMY WEEKEND TREND CONTINUES

GOOD EVENING EVERYONE. ONLY THE UKMET MODEL AND THE CANADIAN MODEL DO NOT HAVE OUR WEEKEND STORM. EVERY OTHER MODEL THAT I HAVE SEEN DOES AND MY CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF RAIN AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOO. THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF US, BUT LET'S SEE HOW IT LOOKS AS IT GETS A BIT CLOSER. BELOW IS THE 18Z NAM FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THIS STORM. THE GFS IS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IF THIS IS POSSIBLE. HOLD DOWN YOUR EXCITEMENT FOR 24 HOURS AS THIS IS A VERY UNIQUE SET UP.

Click on map to enlarge (NAM forecast rainfall showing a deluge)

GARY

Posted by at 5:50 PM | Comments (18)

Spring Surprise Factor

Good late evening everyone,

The SSF or what I call the Spring Surprise Factor may be coming into play for the first time in years. Below is the new GFS 500 mb forecast for Saturday. I showed this possibility on the 10 PM newscast tonight and if this trend continues we will have some widespread rain this weekend. But, we need the upper low to form west of Topeka and we will be having some fun. The second map shows the forecast precipitation for this weekend. It is all fantasy if the upper low doesn't form west of us. So, remember for those of you who think I am bringing you false hope and hyping this up, confidence is very low. It just will be interesting to see how it evolves. The Canadian model came in tonight and has the upper low forming over Iowa. If that happens then we get a few showers and that is all. It is amazing how just a slightly further west solution will make us happy, and yet slightly further east and we are left frustrated again. I know what Storm Dog thinks will happen.

Have a great night! Be sure to watch our weathercasts this week and BREEZY makes her DEBUT on the 5 PM newscast Wednesday.

Click to enlarge (valid Saturday morning showing Kansas upper low formation)

Click to enlarge (60 hour total precipitation forecast by Sunday night)

Posted by at 11:33 PM | Comments (9)

Frost by Thursday morning?

Click on map to enlarge

Above is the NAM surface prog for Thursday morning. The sky will be clear, high pressure will be sitting over southern Missouri, and with light winds we have a strong potential for some frost. It will be cloudy tonight and the clouds will act like a blanket and not allow a frost. If the sky clears by 5 AM or so then temperatures would easily drop to close to freezing tonight, but I am not expecting this and as a result it will likely stay near or above 40 degrees.

The weather is getting interesting by Friday as the next system heads our way. There will be areas of rain and thunderstorms, but we may be in the wrong spot again. This Friday system would never have a chance in the winter months, but since it is almost May we are seeing how much easier it is to produce rain.

Keep in mind that we continue to cycle through the same pattern that set up in early November. It really is fascinating. The storm we just had is very similar to two storm systems we had in December. But, since it is still the same pattern I am rather concerned with what could happen as we go through May and June. I still feel that we will have some significant severe weather and also at least average if not above average precipitation. There will still be a couple of dry spells that should not last as long as the ones we have had earlier this year.

Gary

Posted by at 9:43 AM | Comments (11)

The STORM DOG FACTOR

When we miss a storm then we will call it the "Storm Dog Factor". Thunderstorms have been around and spotty, but nothing organized is developing. Some areas may still experience a few thunderstorms but this is not getting its act together and I think its Storm Dog's Fault. I am really just kidding as I am just very frustrated again. I am somewhat satisfied personally as I had over 2 inches of rain, but I was hoping for an exciting night and it isn't quite happening. Some areas may get 1/2" or so during the next few hours.

Now, I still think it is exciting as the cold front has some teeth and will be here by morning.

Gary

Posted by at 9:02 PM | Comments (14)

We are in the developing zone

Good evening everyone! We are in the developing zone between the cold front and warm front. Thunderstorms are rapidly developing. They are moving northeast. We could end up with widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts during the next 7 hours. But, who will get the most. I will blog about this in a few minutes. Watch my weathercast in 10 minutes. This is exciting.

Gary

Posted by at 6:06 PM | Comments (5)

Severe thunderstorms are possible

Good morning. And congratulations to Jeff and Edi Penner on their new baby. Jamie posted a picture in the previous entry. I went to see the cute little baby yesterday. It is a very cute little baby.

We finally had some heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, but rainfall amounts varied quite a bit. The heaviest amount coming in early this morning is 1.77" in Overland Park. There was a band of very heavy thunderstorms that developed north and west of Lawrence and then it became quite a rain producer as it entered Johnson county, KS. But, move up along I-35 towards downtown and rainfall amounts quickly taper off to around 0.15".

We have one very good chance of widespread heavy rain tonight as a cold front moves through. There is a chance of some significant severe weather depending on whether the atmosphere completely recovers during the day. Below you can see the GFS from the midnight computer model run. This shows the surface for 7 PM and 1 AM. The 7 PM map shows a surface low well south near the Texas/Oklahoma border, but if you use your imagination there is really a surface low near Topeka. Then, by 1 AM the eastern Kansas surface low shows up as it has moved into western Missouri. This is something to pay close attention to as the development and placement of this surface low may be critical in how much severe weather we get later today.

Click to enlarge (Valid 7 PM Monday)

Click to enlarge (Valid 1 AM Tuesday)

As of this moment, 7:30 AM, it appears that we will set up quite nicely for some severe thunderstorms when they initially develop late this afternoon to our west. As they move towards the state line they will likely quickly grow into an MCS (Mesoscale convective system) as conditions are rype for this kind of evolution this evening. Then, a strong push of cold air will flow in after the cyclone moves by. A cyclone is really just a mid latitude storm. You can use the word cyclone for any low pressure area, but we usually use the terms cyclone and anticyclone for larger storm systems and high pressure areas.

Posted by at 7:25 AM | Comments (12)

LARGE Hail

Just an update...

These thunderstorms have numerous reports of LARGE HAIL with them. If you have a car parked outside... tonight would be the night to move it under a shelter! Here is a picture of golfball sized hail that fell in Lawrence:

This was sent in by Thomas Cray... thanks for the picture!

Here is another Lawrence hail photo sent in by Julie Carr:

Larger than quarters and half-dollars!! I have also seen reports of TENNIS BALL sized hail. :-0

Jamie

Posted by at 10:33 PM | Comments (3)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The Southern half of the viewing area is now under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 1am. Expect thunderstorms to develop this evening... with hail and gusty winds being the main threat:

Click to enlarge

Nothing going on at the moment... click on ESP below for the latest radar image:

Posted by at 6:33 PM | Comments (8)

More Rain

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 77
LOW: 57

Some of you got some much needed rainfall overnight and early this morning! Here is a picture sent to us by Brian Miner:

Brian took this last night around 11 o'clock. He was at the intersection of I-35 and Johnson Drive... looking to the North. Pretty cool shot!

This afternoon ended up really nice... with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s. Once again... this evening... things will change around here. Right now, we have ongoing showers to the North, up around Marysville, MO... while we are dry here in the Metro. Looking at our surface map... there is STILL a frontal boundary south of us:

Click to enlarge

Notice there is also a surface low in Western Kansas. So what will happen? Well, thunderstorms have developed near the surface low... and will likely form into an MCS and head our way. Ahead of these storms, lift over our area will also increase. So there is a pretty good chance of showers and thunderstorms for us tonight. I am thinking they will develop between 9pm and midnight. Some of us could see heavy rain... especially the southern half of the viewing area. Much like last night, the threat of hail will be there... last night most of the reports were about .75" hail... just under "Severe" criteria.

I have also continued the chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night... AND into Tuesday morning. This could be a good soaking event for us!

And finally, it is a very exciting day for us here in the forecast center! Our family just keeps getting bigger! Jeff Penner and his wife, Edi had a bouncing baby boy today! Here is a picture of proud papa Jeff... with little Skyler:

Mom is doing just fine! We are so happy for the Penner family!!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:43 PM | Comments (1)

We Need Rain!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 80
LOW: 54

HAPPY EARTH DAY!!!!!!!!!

Do you believe it... it was ANOTHER great day across the region! Plenty of sunshine, and highs right around 80 degrees. We took Mags to Shawnee Mission Dog Park again, and it was PACKED down by the lake today! I got to meet Stormy's brother while I was there, that was pretty cool. :)

Otherwise, some high clouds have been drifting in this evening. Right now, things are quiet... but I am thinking some thunderstorms will fire up after 9 or 10pm. There is a warm front to our south... you can see it on the surface map below:

Click to enlarge

Not EVERYONE will see rain with this round... but the thunderstorms should develop along and north of this front as the low level jet strengthens this evening. The LLJ is seen to our southwest on our 850mb map below...

Click to enlarge

What you see above is the RUC model, or Rapid Update Cycle. The RUC is a very short range model that is run each hour. But it only puts out a 12-hour forecast, so it is used for short-term forecasting. In looking at the RUC this evening... it does have an area of thunderstorms developing, as you can see below:

Click to enlarge

The rain should be outta here by tomorrow late morning, and most of Sunday looks dry for us. It should be another nice day... a few more clouds around... but highs again in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The chance of thunderstorms will increase Sunday night and Monday morning. Some areas could see a good soaking rain with this, as a complex develops in Kansas and heads our way. Here is a look at what the GFS is giving us in terms of rainfall totals:

Click to enlarge

The GFS is showing the most rain of all the models... upwards of 2.5"!! That would be great if we got it... we sure need it. Our rainfall deficit stands like this (Jan 1st through today):

KCI
NORMAL: 7.17"
ACTUAL: 4.17"
DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE: -3.00"

Besides the much needed rainfall... we could also (unfortunately) see some stronger storms. The SPC has us in a slight risk for Sunday:

Click to enlarge

As I leave you with thoughts of thunderstorms... here is a nice picture of one! This was sent in by Curtis Olinger of Lenexa. Curtis... thank you for always sending us your cool pictures!!

Check out that strange lightning on the right-hand side. Weird!
Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:55 PM | Comments (7)

BREEZY is the winner! Now, will it rain?

First of all, I would like to thank everyone for your help. We did not decide until right around 6 PM this evening. I know a lot of you liked Haily and Misty more than Breezy, but in the end I thought there aren't too many animals or people named Breezy and it just seemed to fit when I was looking at the picture. Anyway, it is my favorite!

Now, back to the weather......Below is the latest NAM forecast for rainfall by Monday. A warm front will be developing over southern Kansas and southern Missouri. A strong cold front is approaching from the northwest and there is a slow moving upper level storm heading our way.

Posted by at 6:34 PM | Comments (9)

Final Names

Thank you so much for participating in the choosing of our new puppy's name. Here are the finalists. We will announce it on the 6 PM and 10 PM newscast tonight.

BREEZY

FLASHY

GUSTY

HAILY

MISTY

RAINY

FRIDAY

DATA

JET (JET STREAM)

These are the final 9 names. Vote for your favorite one! Later this evening we will go over the potential rain event for Sunday night. It is looking like we will see widespread rain, but more later.

VOTE NOW!

Gary

Posted by at 11:03 AM | Comments (103)

Please help in naming my new puppy

Well, guess what? I met this wonderful puppy at the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City yesterday and today......Windy and Stormy have a new sister! But, we don't have a name for her yet. Please comment on your ideas and we will decide over the weekend. She is about 4 months old and a Shepard mix. Perhaps a Belgian Malinois mix which is a very smart doggy. She is scared in her new environment but she will adjust. Here are some pictures:

Click a picture to enlarge

Posted by at 12:10 PM | Comments (160)

Tornado Stats

Click to enlarge (Wall cloud illuminated by lightning just west of downtown KC April 15th)

Click to enlarge

Above is a picture I took from our broadcast the other night on NBC ACTION NEWS. This was the base of the supercell tracking across the Missouri River near Parkville and heading east-northeast just north of downtown Kansas City.

The other graphic shows the number of tornadoes and how we are on record pace so far this year. It will be tough to match the month of May in 2003 and 2004. If we do then this season will get even wilder soon.

Rain chances may be going up with a storm and cold front due in around Sunday night. More on this later.

Gary

Posted by at 2:39 PM | Comments (8)

Tuesday Storm Pics

Hello, there!
Do you believe we had MORE severe weather yesterday? This time, it was the Eastern part of our viewing area. Here is the NWS Summary:

Severe thunderstorms developed late Tuesday afternoon at Bethany and Gallatin producing large hail. The storms strengthened and began to display supercellular characteristics as they moved into Livingston and Grundy counties, with funnel clouds reported west of Chillicothe at 7:15 pm and just north of Spickard at 7:42 pm. Very large hail also was reported with the supercell storm near Chillicothe with 3" diameter hail reported at 7:35 pm. Other large hail reports include tennis ball size hail in Slater (Saline County) and Fayette (Howard County) and baseball size hail in Mt. Moriah (Harrison County).

Here are some pictures from Tuesday evening's storms. This first picture is of Chillicothe hail... sent in by Corky Hesler:

Corky says the hail was nearly tennis-ball-sized for awhile... and lasted for about 30 minutes! This next picture is also Chillicothe hail... sent in by Kelli Sampsel:

And her neighbor's dog, Wilber wanted to have his 15-minutes of fame, too! :)

Last, this is a cool wide-angle shot of a thunderstorm that developed near Warrensburg:

What a neat shot! Vic Winter sent this in... he says the storm formed right over his area, and then quickly moved East. Pretty impressive shot, Vic... and thanks to all of you for sending in your photos!

One of our bloggers requested a shot of the supercell thunderstorm right over the downtown area... (you may have seen it-- it was part of a timelapse Gary showed on Monday). It was a nighttime shot, with lightning illuminating the sky... and the supercell in the picture right over the city. Anyway, Gary is working on getting that into the blog! He should have it posted by this evening!

OH! And be sure to tune into NBC Action News Thursday morning... Brett Anthony will have a special guest! None other than Al Roker!! They will be doing some fun stuff out at Kauffman Stadium. And the fun will continue into the Today Show, too!

Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 12:11 PM | Comments (6)

Severe weather outbreak to our east

Good morning. The RUC model just came out and is consistent with last nights data. And, as a result we miss most of the excitement. Those of you east of a Maryville to Warrensburg line must pay close attention as this is the most likely spot for thunderstorm development. Columbia, MO is the bullseye this afternoon, just northeast of the surface low. Below you can see the 12 hour RUC surface. The low is east of Kansas City at 7 PM (00z). We have enough of a cap to prevent thunderstorms from developing until around 6 or 7 PM. This takes the Kansas City area out of the threat. We still must monitor the situation closely, but central and eastern Missouri will be the most likely area to be hit by today's significant severe weather potential.

Click to enlarge (valid 7 PM tonight showing surface low east of Kansas City with developing thunderstorms about 40 miles east of the state line. The biggest threat will be another 40 to 60 miles east of the developing area, or 100 miles east of Kansas City after 7 PM)

Posted by at 8:55 AM | Comments (28)

Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday? AND Windy getting shaved

My mom and stepfather came in for a rare visit this weekend and we had a great time. But, I had to go into work as we had another severe weather outbreak on Saturday evening. One strong supercell tracked right across I-29 and Barry road around 8 PM Saturday night and it almost produced a tornado in Kansas City. It did produce golf ball size.

We now look ahead to Tuesday. It is another very unique set up and this is somewhat different than anything else we have had so far this season. Below you can see the 500 mb flow and surface forecast for Tuesday at 7 PM. A cold front is just getting to Kansas City and this will put us in the developing area for thunderstorms that will become a widespread rain event well east of us again. We may have severe thunderstorms as initial development occurs near by. Can you see the ridge developing over Canada (look at the 500 mb forecast). This is a very important feature that is now developing and will be a major force in our weather over the next 10 days. Hopefully the flow will break underneath in the right way and we will have some chances for rain. It will be a battle between being cooler and dry, or cooler and wet. More later today or Tuesday.


Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid 7 PM Tuesday)


Click to enlarge (Surface forecast valid 7 PM Tuesday)

Below are some pictures of the weekend. The picture of my mom also includes a dog named Slick, Windy and Stormy's friend. The other pictures are of Windy before and after her weekend shaving. Also, Windy and Stormy in the cage before the shaving.

My mom & Slick, a friends dog (click to enlarge)

Stormy and Windy waiting at La Petique about to be groomed and shaved

Windy before her being shaved Saturday (click to enlarge)

Another picture of Windy before

Windy after her shaving (click to enlarge)

Posted by at 6:24 AM | Comments (18)

Storm Recap and a Look Ahead

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 78
LOW: 64

As promised... here is a recap of storm reports across our region from yesterday's storms. First, the national picture:

Click to enlarge

Now... here is a look at the immediate viewing area, courtesy of the NWS in Pleasant Hill:

One injury was reported with the tornado in DeKalb County... just 3 miles South of Maysville. In fact, one of our viewers sent us a picture of that very storm!

Ken and Sherra Tierney sent this... it was originally a video clip, but they were able to freeze a few of the frames. In this particular frame, you can see at least two funnels... one of them (or even both) could be touching the ground. The Maysville tornado was reported yesterday around 8:50pm. Thanks to Ken and Sherra for sending that in!

And of course, the image I posted yesterday deserves another look:

This was sent to us by John Armstrong from Smithville, MO. He captured the tornado forming on his way from Beatrice, NE back home to Smithville around 4:30. And we have learned from a couple of you... the correct pronunciation of Beatrice! It is "be-AT-trice"... thank you for correcting us!

Here is another cool shot of some lighting... which we saw quite a bit of. Even if you didn't see any RAIN (which some places didn't)... you probably saw some of this in the distance:

This is from Vince and Rachel Morris... they live north of the river... and said it was quite the lightning show in their neighborhood! Pretty impressive!

As for what is NEXT... well, we will have one more day to enjoy before the threat of thunderstorms is back in the forecast for Tuesday. Monday, expect a mix of sun and clouds, and comfortable temperatures in the mid-70s. Another bonus... the winds will die down! So not as gusty for Monday. (I guess it's not a bonus for kite-fliers... but anyway...) :)

Tuesday we'll watch an approaching front to bring us another threat of severe storms. It is a different set-up... but we could still see strong storms. Once again, however, they look to be scattered... so not everyone will see rain. Gary and Jeff will have more on this Monday.

Hope you had a lovely weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:10 PM | Comments (2)

Another Update

Good evening...
The threat of severe weather is diminishing for us as we go past 10pm tonight. The line of severe thunderstorms that brought many reports of hail, wind damage AND tornados has moved on and out of our viewing area. The one lingering severe thunderstorm warning in Livingston County in Missouri has just been allowed to expire! (thank goodness!)

There is still a small line of thunderstorms affecting parts of the southern viewing area... but these are not severe and are not expected to reach severe criteria. You can expect brief, heavy downpours, lightning and maybe some gusty winds and small hail with this line of storms.

Otherwise... another chapter of severe weather has come to a close! We may open the book again on Tuesday night... the set up is looking more impressive!

One really great picture of a tornado up in Beatrice, NE:

This was sent to us by John Armstrong from Smithville, MO. He captured the tornado forming today on his way from Beatrice, NE back home to Smithville around 4:30 this afternoon! Great shot, John... and thank you for sending it in!

If you have any cool storm photos you can send them to us at:
weather@nbcactionnews.com
I will try to incorporate them into tomorrow's blogs... (as well as an extensive report on the damage from today's thunderstorms!)
Thanks!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:29 PM | Comments (9)

Update

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 83
LOW: 65

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for the NORTHERN portion of our viewing area. Basically everyone north of the Missouri River until MIDNIGHT. Here it is on the National map:

Click to enlarge

Thunderstorms are still trying to fire farther and farther south on our dryline. The dryline is still in Kansas... it looks to be moving East of Manhattan now. You can see where the 20 dewpoints are separated from the 60 dewpoints... that is the dryline (dewpoints are the numbers in GREEN):

These ongoing thunderstorms do have tornado warnings on them... for Brown, Jackson, Nemaha and Pottawatomie counties in Kansas... until 6:30pm. There has been a funnel cloud spotted 4 miles south of Onaga... or 32 miles northeast of Manhattan. This cluster of thunderstorms will move into extreme Northwest Missouri around 7pm... we will continue to track it!

New thunderstorms are trying to get going down around Emporia... if they hold together... they would affect parts of the northern viewing area (in Missouri) around 8pm or so. We will continue to watch THAT, too!

The BIG thunderstorms have been up in Nebraska today. Our storm spotter, Sean Wilson, captured a tornado near Beatrice, NE. He is bringing the video in... hopefully we will get it on the air tonight at 10pm. If not tonight... we will show it tomorrow!

Jamie

Posted by at 5:52 PM | Comments (3)

Evening Thunderstorms Possible

I just want to do a really quick update to let you know what is going on... I will blog more later this evening.

Right now... there are some scattered thunderstorms affecting the area. These thunderstorms are not severe... but may produce heavy downpours, small hail or gusty winds. The SEVERE storms are still off to our northwest. The SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for parts of Northeast Kansas. Here is is on the National Map:

Click to enlarge

The WATCH includes Clay Center, Marysville, Hiawatha and Manhattan, Kansas... and is in effect until 10pm.

Most of the severe weather has been NORTH in NEBRASKA this late afternoon... but I am watching the dryline, which is TRYING to fire. You can see it on ESP below... valid as of 4:40pm:

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST ESP IMAGE

This is the line that would bring us severe storms. I will be watching it through the evening... and will let you know if any watches/warnings are issued! The biggest threat would be large hail and damaging winds if these storms get going. We can't rule out isolated tornadoes, either.
Stay tuned,
Jamie

Posted by at 4:28 PM

Holiday Weekend

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 90
LOW: 71

In big storm news... the cluster of thunderstorms I talked about on the 10pm News on Thursday... did quite a bit of damage in Eastern Iowa. One person died as these storms produced tornadoes that damaged houses and even part of the University of Iowa campus! The one deadly thunderstorm cut a path from Iowa City southeast through the small town of Nichols. NWS meteorologists say there is a path in the Nichols area that is 4 to 5 miles long. That is where the one fatality was... a man and a woman were in a mobile home... and when the tornado hit, the home basically "disintegrated". The man was injured... and the woman died.

Parts of OUR viewing area could see severe weather as we head into the weekend, too. Saturday is another stressful forecasting day, as the potential is there for these stronger storms. The greatest risk looks to be north of Kansas City... but we really have to watch it. Here is the Severe potential for Saturday:

Keep in mind, there could be thunderstorms in the morning/early afternoon... then a break... and then another round of thunderstorms in the evening. But it is also one of those days where some people... may see NOTHING!! Very frustrating! Of course, we will keep you posted on the watches/warnings/etc!

Easter Sunday is tricky, too. As the low slides through... we could see a few thunderstorms (mainly to the northeast of KC) in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect some clouds and cooler temperatures.

Have a great TGIF!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 3:40 PM | Comments (7)

RECORD HIGH

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 92 (NEW RECORD!!)
LOW: 59

Today we hit a record high... the old record was 88 degrees, set back in 1936. Today we made it into the lower 90s!! Do you believe it? It is only April 13th... and I am amazed!

Friday will be another hot day, with highs expected to climb back into the lower 90s. (the record for Friday is 92... so we could be close again!) The only thing that could hold us back is some cloud cover... we may have some high clouds around during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect gusty southwest winds through the day, as a cold front approaches.

That COLD front won't bring us much in the way of rain chances (or cold air)... but it will stall to our south and lift back north as a WARM front on Saturday morning. This is our next chance of rain. You can see the NAM picking up on it below:

Click to enlarge

It is about a 40% chance of rain for Saturday morning right now. THEN we have to watch the setup for Saturday afternoon/evening. There is a SLIGHT chance some additional thunderstorms will fire to our west, along a dryline. IF that happens, any thunderstorm could be severe. But there is only about a 20% chance of that happening right now... most of it looks like it will be to our north. Something to watch, nonetheless!

We really could use the rain, as I am sure you know! Here is the latest Drought Assessment from the Climate Prediction Center. You can see, not much has changed:

Click to enlarge

There are cooler temperatures in the 7 day forecast! Highs could be in the 60s (even 50s) by the end of next week... won't that feel refreshing??!! :)
Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 5:32 PM | Comments (8)

A big change or just a shift

Click to enlarge (shows the 500 mb forecast for 240 hours from now, or 10 days)

The next 10 to 15 days will be fascinating as the expected return to the higher amplitude/colder part of the weather pattern has been showing up. It hasn't happened yet, but I expect it to. On the above map you can see the big ridge forming over western Canada. The pattern is really strange and hopefully it will result in colder and WETTER weather for us. This is where the uncertainties lie. The specific results are different every time through the cycle. Remember we believe we are just cycling through the same pattern that set up way back in October and November. It is likely around a 60 o 62 day cycle. This weather pattern, according to my theory continues through July before falling apart in mid to late summer.

More later......

Gary

Posted by at 6:25 PM | Comments (13)

Great day for a swim

Good evening! Earlier this morning Jamie and I, with her husband Ken and some other friends including MAGS and STORMY went to Shawnee Mission Park at the off leash area. Stormy went way out almost half way across the lake, well it seemed that way, to get her ball. Mags is only 6 months old, but she is becoming quite the swimmer as well.

We hope you enjoy the pictures. More on the weather later.

Click on Stormy to enlarge

Click on Mags to enlarge the picture

Stormy shaking it all off

Gary

Posted by at 5:01 PM | Comments (13)

Getting dry

Above, you can see the 18z NAM run for Tuesday evening. The storm is well to the north but a cold front gradually moving across and may trigger some thunderstorms. Right now I am going for a 20% chance.

We need rain. Areas just east of Kansas City have had enough rain in the past few weeks, Trenton, Sedalia, Warrensburg, but the Kansas City area is dry. And, getting drier. More on this in the coming days.

It is Sunday and I am working because Brett is finishing his vacation while Jamie had a day off. Ask me some questions and I will try to make a blog out of one of them later.

Gary

Posted by at 5:11 PM | Comments (16)

Return of the Drought Watch

Well we have had all of this activity in the weather pattern, but it has not really been that beneficial to the Kansas City area. Although, some areas like Warrensburg and Trenton have received some nice rainfall during the last month, KC has been left out (see our rainfall stats below). There are 2 storm systems we are watching the next 7 days (Tuesday & next weekend). However, it appears they will be fast movers and track to our north. The one for next weekend has a slight chance to be a wetter, slow-moving storm, but the latest data does not show much hope for a decent widespread rainfall.

We do feel, however, as this same pattern rolls through the rest of the spring it will at least become average wet. It will be interesting to see what we think by the end of May.

KC 2006 Rainfall...3.39"

Average So Far...5.64"

Jeff

Posted by at 8:26 PM | Comments (2)

Final Blog on this BUST and Friday Night Movie

Now, it is officially over. There are still a few thunderstorms near the Nebraska border and east of Kansas City at 9:20 PM, but it is over. SPC should never have issued that last tornado watch. They were smart not to issue one for the longest time, but then they just overreacted to the dry line when it was clearly over. Oh well. They aren't the only ones who made mistakes today.

This storm is HUGE and strong. Just look at the satellite picture. WOW! HOW? HOW? HOW? Another storm that leaves a bad taste in our mouth. Very sad. We were just in the wrong part of the storm. We were in the middle of the high risk, but looking back on this we only had the dry line to play with. The triple point and warm front were WAY north of us. Thunderstorms along the dry line quite often act EXACTLY the way they did yesterday and we should have known better.

Did you know that I am in a movie? It is at the TIVOLI Friday evening at 7 PM called "OPENING". I am the weatherman in the movie, but only on the radio, describing a tornado coming into the KC metro area. Come by and say hello and see the movie. FRIDAY NIGHT AT 7 PM. I will be there after the 6 PM SHOW.

GARY

Posted by at 9:23 PM | Comments (33)

Just like our last snow storm......POOF

A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED, SO LET'S PAY CLOSE ATTENTION. AT THIS MOMENT THERE IS STILL A THREAT. UNTIL THE DRY LINE PASSES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT.

We are sitting here in the NBC ACTION NEWS FORECAST CENTER baffled. There is still the potential for severe thunderstorms to erupt, but as every hour goes by the threat will be shifting into northern Missouri and then Iowa.

So, how did this happen? I can think of a few reasons. First of all the surface low is powerful and in Nebraska. Is there any surprise that Nebraska is filled with thunderstorms everywhere. We are just in the wrong spot. The vort max is more channeled as well. Very strong but somewhat channeled, which means there isn't a lot of PVA which causes lift.

We still have to watch areas north, east and south of Kansas City this evening as the dry line pushes east. I really just wish this would go by, because I am very mad at Mother Nature. Can we just have a set up for rain please?

Strong thunderstorms are in Lynn county crossing into Missouri. Let's watch these closely.

Gary

Posted by at 7:26 PM | Comments (24)

A new watch

There is a new tornado watch that has just been issued for areas SOUTH of KC on the Missouri side. Here it is graphically:

Click to enlarge

The strong storms that were heading right toward Kansas City have weakened big time... and now the most impressive cells are moving south of the Metro. So be on alert in Cass, Bates, Henry, Johnson and Pettis counties in Missouri this evening. We'll continue to watch it, of course!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:06 PM | Comments (18)

Here it comes......4:15 PM

Rapid development of severe thunderstorms are right on schedule. We are about to have one of the most serious threats in years approach Kansas City. I think this threat will move through the KC metro area by 9:30 PM. The threat of tornadoes will increase as this line approaches the state line. We will be tracking it for you on ESP. Once again if you experience any bad weather please call our news desk and let them know. We may have you on the air. This will really help us. The number again is 816-932-4141.

The dry line has surged past Wichita and Oklahoma City. So, this is moving.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 4:19 PM | Comments (18)

Watch Issued

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for parts of Eastern Kansas this afternoon:

Click to enlarge

This includes the cities of Topeka, Ottawa, Iola, Manhattan, and Emporia. The TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 9pm.

We are seeing the very first severe weather development just west of Wichita:

Click to enlarge

The dryline will likely continue to fire over the next hour or so. Then the storms will head our way. We are expecting them in our area between 6 and 10pm. Gary just did a complete analysis, and he sees some interesting boundaries setting up to our west. Moisture is surging North into the Salina area, and we all agree it is setting up to be a pretty wild evening. We will continue to update you.
Jamie
Again... our newsline is 816-932-4141... please call with storm reports!

Posted by at 1:35 PM | Comments (16)

HIGH Risk Official

Just an update. It's official:

Click to enlarge

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRY LINE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO N-CENTRAL OK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 18Z...AND EVOLVE INTO AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02-03Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS AND PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/WRN MO. WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY STRONG SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH A VARIETY OF STORM MOTIONS. CELLS INTO ERN NEB WILL TEND TO DEVELOP NWD AND ROTATE NWWD TOWARDS CENTRAL NEB...WHILE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO WHERE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF ANY EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL WITH SOME HAIL STONES EXCEEDING 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY INTO NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO WHERE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AND LCLS REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE ESE OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTIVE MODE/STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION STILL HARD TO DETERMINE ATTM...AS SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LEWP/BOW ECHOES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. REGARDLESS...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OUTRUN INSTABILITY NEAR THE LOWER MO/MID-MS RIVER VALLEYS AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

We will continue to give you updates throughout the day,
Jamie

Posted by at 9:11 AM | Comments (19)

HIGH Risk

Good morning!

I wanted to update you on our potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction Center IS upgrading a good chunk of the viewing area to a HIGH RISK. Here is the graphic, depicting the area in question:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 061101Z - 061300Z

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.

H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.

THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.

This hasn't officially been issued yet... but this is the latest info on their thinking. We will continue to keep you posted throughout the day. Keep these links handy:

ESP RADAR
NWS WATCHES & WARNINGS

If you notice the sky getting dark this afternoon... PUT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN IN PLACE!! Stay safe!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:31 AM | Comments (3)

High risk seems LIKELY....10 PM Thursday

Above, is the latest NAM run showing one of the strongest 500 mb vort maxes I have ever seen. Timing is perfect and I just don't see how we avoid powerful thunderstorms Thursday evening. More in the morning, but the SPC will very likely have us in a high risk by morning.

Hopefully you will be watching our coverage. If this severe weather outbreak develops please call us with your reports. You can help us even after a thunderstorm has moved by. Our newsroom line is 816-932-4141. Just tell them you want to be on the air.

Gary

Posted by at 9:51 PM | Comments (12)

Dry line bulging & rewording of my earlier entry

Above is the NAM forecast for 7 PM Thursday. Notice the dry line bulging through. How can you see this? By looking at the dewpoint gradient. The uniform high dewpoints are over most of Missouri and the rapid drop off is near the state line. If this happens the threat of severe weather will end after the dry line moves through and the dry line is not stopping at 7 PM, but the LATEST DATA HAS THE DRY LINE FURTHER WEST. Many ingredients are coming together for a large outbreak. If the dry line slows down we will be in the targeted area. When will thunderstorms fire up? Right now I am thinking there is enough of a cap to hold off convection until around 3 or 4 PM. There is a powerful shortwave that gains strength as it rounds the base of the upper level trough and rips out into Kansas. This powerful shortwave is very unusual and will wipe away the cap. This is very complex and scary. I will be talking about this tonight, so please watch our newscasts at 5, 6 and 10 PM and I will go over this specific situation in detail.

More later.

Posted by at 12:18 PM | Comments (18)

Severe Weather and One Cute Puppy

Good morning! We are starting off today nice and mild! Temperatures are in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. This late morning/early afternoon... we will be dealing with quite a bit of cloud cover... but expect some peeks of sunshine as the day goes on.

There is an area of showers and thunderstorms that has just developed south of us... across Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri:

Click to enlarge

That area of rain should stay south of us today... so expect a dry Wednesday. The chance of thunderstorms increases tonight and Thursday. It is still looking like a severe weather outbreak is possible Thursday late afternoon and into the evening. You can read more about that in Gary's blog below.

And the SPC has upped us to a MODERATE RISK for severe storms:

Click to enlarge

We, of course, will keep you posted on any watches and warnings as we go through Thursday!

Now for a little fun... yesterday, we took our puppy, Mags, to the dog park. Mags has always splashed around in the water... but has never gotten IN to swim. Well yesterday, she decided to swim for the first time! It was so exciting for me... maybe I am a big dork... but I was cheering and laughing... it was really cool. Click on her picture below to see a slideshow of her big moment:

Hope you have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:08 AM | Comments (7)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE

Click on latest outlook to enlarge (SPC strongly suggesting upgrade to HIGH RISK Thursday)

Good evening everyone! There is a strong possibility of a severe weather outbreak on Thursday. I really hope it doesn't materialize. I know a lot of you would like to have some weather excitement and this set up may satisfy your appetite. Many of the ingredients are coming together to produce widespread severe weather Thursday and Thursday night.

Above, you can click the map to enlarge. It shows the 500 mb flow with a vorticity maximum rounding the powerful closing off low. This is in perfect position to create a large area of lifting air near the dry line/cold front. The second map is the 700 mb flow which shows the forecast vertical motion in thin red lines. Moisture will be deep and rich enough to bring us significant severe weather. Let's see how it sets up by Thursday morning.

Gary

Posted by at 8:18 PM | Comments (9)

A Blogger's Question

Brian, one of our bloggers, has some great questions.

Hi Gary:

I just find it amazing that we have had the major outbreaks of severe weather so early. I am sure we can look at the records, and see these types of patterns. At the same time, so far this year, we have set all kinds of records, so it is kind of exciting to see what may develop next. Keep up the good work!

We are likely at a record pace when it comes to the amount of severe weather, fatalities, and tornado reports. The amazing thing is, and we have blogged about it during the warmest January in our history, we had a very active storm track during January. The storm systems were just as strong, but there was one HUGE difference. There was no moisture available as the storm systems were moving much faster. Now the storm systems are just as strong but moving a bit slower allowing the Gulf of Mexico moisture to be drawn in. This is the difference between dry storms and a warm January and severe thunderstom producing storm systems this time through the cycle.

Gary

Posted by at 8:11 PM | Comments (12)

A strange week ahead!

Below you can see the 500 mb GFS forecast for Thursday at noon. A low is closing off over the eastern Rockies and western Plains aloft. How this evolves will decide what kind of weather we experience here. Look below:

click above to enlarge

Notice the ridge aloft forming over southern Canada directly north of this upper low. This is almost a high over low and will block the flow a bit. This is why it will be a slow moving system. This is VERY similar to a set up in late October, and fits right in with the 60 to 62 day cycle we are going through. Another thing to look for in this weather pattern is a cold outbreak sometime in the second half of April. I expect this to happen but it isn't quite showing up yet.

If the upper low ends up well north of us then we will go into a huge dry slot Wednesday night through Friday. But, it is much more complex than this. As the system moves inland over the west coast a ridge will be coming over us. Remember a ridge is created by warm air advection causing the heights to rise. Now, that it is April, this signiture can produce thunderstorms so watch out on Wednesday before the storm even gets close. We could very well have an MCS (Mesoscale convective system) around Wednesday. Then the set up will be there for some severe thunderstorms on Thursday before the upper low slides southeast right over us on Friday.

Gary

Posted by at 5:27 PM | Comments (13)

One thunderstorm with hail

It is 12:15 PM and there is one thunderstorm producing some hail just west of Topeka. It is in the cold air and tracking right towards us. It is being caused by a strong upper level system aloft and it is very strange. Some of us may see this thunderstorm around mid afternoon, otherwise we are done for severe weather. The tornado threat will be well off to the east today.

More later. I am at work today.

Gary

Posted by at 12:15 PM | Comments (7)

A Race Against Time on Sunday

This race against time has nothing to do with the time change, but rather a race with the dry line. Here is the situation for Sunday. Supercell, likely tornadic, T-Storms are likely to form along a dry line (separation of dry and moist air) after 1-3 PM. The big question is, where will the dry line be at that time? The newest data just in suggests the dry line will be racing through central Missouri at 2-3 PM. This means eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be in the all clear. It will be a mostly sunny, warm and very windy day with a potential tornado outbreak across eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa and much of Ilinois. So it is a race between T-Storm development and the dry line. It appears KC is in the clear. See below the newest forecasted surface map for 1 PM Sunday from the midnight (6Z) RUC model. I drew in the cold front (blue line), warm front (red line) and dry line (brown line). So, by 2-3 PM when T-Storms fire along the dry line it will be in central Missouri. Keep in mind it is moving east at 50-60 MPH!

Click to Enlarge
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Posted by at 2:11 AM | Comments (3)

All Good Things...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 74
LOW: 40

POLLEN COUNT
BIRCH: HIGH

All good things... must come to an end. Sigh. What a BEAUTIFUL day today! Mostly sunny, a nice breeze, and highs in the 70s... WOW!! But thing are going to be changing pretty quickly here!

We are watching a line of thunderstorms moving in from the West this evening. It looks like they could reach the Topeka area by midnight. You can see where the storms are right NOW on our ESP radar. Click on the image below to see the most current radar:

There have been several damage reports with this area of thunderstorms already. Mostly hail reports, but there has been one report of a tornado in Pawnee County, KS.

There is now a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for areas West of Topeka... including Manhattan, Clay Center, Council Grove and Marysville, Kansas. The WATCH will probably spread East as the storms move in. You can stay on top of the warnings here:
NWS WATCHES AND WARNINGS

With this round of thunderstorms... we can expect heavy downpours, lots of lightning, and possibly some stronger winds and hail. The line should weaken a bit as it heads our way, but the severe threat is still there.

As for additional thunderstorms on Sunday, the lastest model data is speeding everything up. Based on this evening's NAM... the thunderstorms would develop EAST of KC. If this verifies... we could have another beautiful weekend day! We do still have a *SLIGHT* chance of something here, but the better shot is Eastern Missouri and into Illinois. Here is how it looks graphically:

Click to enlarge

If we do see thunderstorms Sunday, we will have the increased risk of tornadoes. We will be here through the night to provide updates... and all day on Sunday! Stay with us, and send us your rainfall amounts, or significant weather (hail, wind gusts, etc) if you can! You can comment below... or if you want to send us some pictures, email them to:
weather@nbcactionnews.com

Thanks, and have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:02 PM | Comments (5)