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I agree! Looking at the MSLP 1000 - 500mb 240 and out..looks pretty rainy...I will be interested to see the 500 vort as we move closer in...curious to see the amplitude!

SCOTT,

THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES THE TREND.

GARY

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Hi Gary:
Wow what glorious weather we have had over the past few days. I just saw the forecast from "another station," and they are calling for a few thunderstorms tonight, but nothing heavy. They are forecasting highs in the upper 80s through the weekend, with Severe weather likely on Saturday. To be honest, after the last "bust," I am not going to put much stock in forecasting severe weather this far out. It is, I repeat, IT IS NOT your fault. As a matter of fact, you always look at what MIGHT happen. I will be going on vacation in Michigan (that is where I am from) leaving on Friday and returning on the 23rd. I hope that the weather there is nice, and I hope while I am gone, my apartment will not blow away! :-) So, on that note, have a wonderful Easter, enjoy this "break" from the severe weather, and actually I hope your theory is wrong! I want warm weather! :-)
Best Regards,
Brian E. from Overland Park KS

BRIAN:
Have a great vacation... and travel safe!
Jamie

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We need rain Gary!!!!

KINLEY:
We definitely DO!!

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Could this mean cooler and wetter or hotter and stormier?

DARIN,

MORE ON THIS LATER.

GARY

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we keep on teaseing you guys down there.. had .25" of rain last, along with 20mins of .88 to 1" sized hail. I keep trying to share my rain with you guys, but you don't seem to want it bad enough :-P

GLEN:
We missed out again!!!!!
Thanks for your efforts, though! ;)
Jamie

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Gary,

According to your comments "This weather pattern, according to my theory continues through July before falling apart in mid to late summer", does that translate into a hot/dry summer or wet/cool summer? Penny for your thoughts?

Thanks,

Hans

HANS,

I AM JUST NOT SURE YET. MORE ON THIS LATER.

GARY

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Jamie, isn't there a button you can push somewhere to give us rain? :)

DAVE,

WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE BUTTON. GIVE US A FEW DAYS.

GARY

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Wow Gary! The storms that came through St. Joseph at about 8:30pm last night were quite impressive. Heavy rain for about 10-15 minutes, and these storms were HIGHLY electrical with alot of cloud to cloud AND cloud to ground lightning. There were also alot of blue-green displays as transformers were hit. Is there anywhere that we can read about your theory online? Weather is my hobby, and I'm sure alot of us would like to read the details.

I DID PRESENT MY WEATHER PATTERN THEORY AT THE BROADCAST CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY IN AUGUST. I DID WRITE AN ABSTRACT FOR THE PRESENTATION AND WE HAVE BLOGGED ABOUT IT QUITE A BIT. GO BACK TO EARLY TO MID NOVEMBER AND YOU CAN READ SOME OF THOSE BLOGS. OTHERWISE I WILL BE WRITING MORE ABOUT IT SOON.

GARY

This dry weather has been going on for at least four years now. It seems more like a desert type climate with a very dry springtime and a wetter summer, almost like monsoon season. I expect this same pattern to continue until it is broken by a wet winter, which we haven't had in a long time. I think these are subtle signs of a bigger shift in the overall climate picture.

Why do the storms break apart west of here? Any clue? This is a recurring theme also over the last few years.

TIM,

THE THUNDERSTORMS DON'T ALWAYS BREAK APART WEST OF HERE. IT JUST SEEMS THAT WAY.

GARY

Gary/Jamie: Based on the NWS discussion for what it it is worth, Saturday's system appears destined for a "killer cap scenario" - hence continued mostly dry - I figure it will be that way until May, when we shall have to see if the "drought" is going to become real or "Memorex". If so, I hope June provides some, and I mean "some" relief.

Oh well, if a drought, we won't have to mow as often, will we?

Later,
Dog

DOG,

WE MAY HAVE A KILLER CAP. AND, YOU WON'T HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MAY. WE WILL BE TESTING THE DROUGHT LATER THIS MONTH. THERE SHOULD BE A WET STORM BEFORE THE END OF THIS MONTH.

GARY

Seems that pesky cap likes to hang around. I want it to go away! I will settle for pulse storms! Is it me, or into next week, do I see a high building out west? I must be crazy..I would think that would be a rain stopper, unless it comes from Canada and not the Pacific...

SCOTT,

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY OVER AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BE GOOD FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES.

GARY

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Gary, what is the next step regarding your theory on the GRC? You took it to AMS, and OU, and I am eager to see it published to read! I am curious to when it will be available... [no pressure! LOL]

SCOTT,

WE ARE DOING RESEARCH THIS SUMMER, MAKING GRAPHS TO CLEARLY SHOW THE CYCLE. AFTER THIS IS COMPLETED WITH A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS I WILL BE WRITING A PAPER TO PRESENT AT THE BIG AMS CONFERENCE NEXT YEAR. SO, BE PATIENT.

GARY

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Enjoy your time in San Antonio! Keep us all in the loop with progress and cool tidbits!