*****************
Gary - Is the NAM preferred over the GFS, when and why, if you can answer this, I'd be interested. Personally, as a non-meteorologist, if the cows are sitting down, it will rain, or possibly be sunny, but there will be increasing darkness after dusk.

The NWS mentioned that dewpoints were progged too high, especially considering a lower level of transevaporation from the surface (I mentioned my thought to you probably years ago now, that a drought in part is harder to break once established, since you don't have the transevaporation adding to the total energy budget of the atmosphere as you would when the ground was moist or saturated - more humidity from the surface added to moisture advected in can only increase potential instability, and possibly erode caps easier than in a drought scenario - I understand from other friends that caps may also be eroded from below) That doesn't mean I disagree with your forecast, but I wonder, if in a wet year, we would have increased chances for a bit more rain than currently. Probably never provable, but that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Cheers,

Dog

STORM DOG,

WE FAVOR THE GFS A BIT OVER THE NAM, BUT YOU MUST LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODELS AND THEN MAKE YOUR OWN DECISION. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT. A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US, AND STRONG, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SET UP INDICATES A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO ME. BUT WHERE WILL IT BE CENTERED?

GARY

*****************
Good name for a dog and BRING ON THE RAIN!!!

IT IS LOOKING BETTER FOR RAIN.

GARY

***************
Gary - that would be great, especially if it occurred on Monday, which is my Saturday, still, even if Sunday, I would be pleased to see the rain. BTW on our walk at Fleming Park (a 3 mile loop through woods with a view of Lake Jacomo, graveled, not hilly, and an easy walk, we saw a male wild Turkey, strutting around, obviously displeased we had interrupted some sort of asignation with another of the same species - that time of year I suppose!!! Love is in the air, and Jo Anne, Parker and Sheba - we all destroyed the mood. Also, we saw our first Red Fox in a field driving to the hike, just north of Colbern Rd in Blue Springs - beautiful canid!!!
Dog

STORMDOG:
That is hilarious!! Thank you for sharing that funny story! :)
Jamie

****************
Gary, We live in Cole Camp,Mo "Benton County" When the storms were going thru Sedalia you kept us updated on Storms coming thru our area as well. A "BIG THANK YOU" for keeping us on your radar as well. We watch you every day for the most accurate weather keep up the excellent work. Tracy Meuschke Cole Camp, Missouri

TRACY:
We won't forget about you in Benton County! Thanks for watching!
Jamie

***************
I think I am probably blind. I believe in looking at the GFS, that we are 30% at best for any signifcant rain in KC...

SCOTT:
Probably about a 30% chance tonight... but it goes up Sunday night.
Jamie

***************
Curious...is CINH roughly the same as cap?

SCOTT:
Yes... it is a capping layer, basically the opposite of CAPE... referring to negative CAPE values.
Jamie

********************
Hi Gary, I know you've already selected the name for your newest addition, but I just happened to run across a suggestion for your next dog! I am taking a meteorology class & found the term "Glory" in my book. As you know, this is "concentric rings of color about the shadow of an observer's head that appear on top of a warm cloud situated below the observer." The colors of a glory are the same as in a primary rainbow. I think Glory would be a very pretty name & wish I'd seen it earlier to submit to you! I always like to see your forecast & love seeing your 4-legged assistants. Keep up this good weather.

*******************
Greetings - 2015 - last 6 hours - Water Vapor loop - am I crazy or does this system to our west have quite a tropical connection - on satellite, it appeared to be drawing in mid to upper moisture from down towards the Yucatan - could that possible influence the rainfall potentials here?

Also,looks like possible some disturbance over western NM with a possible curl in the water vapor over NWrn NM.

Also interesting is how the vector of convection, far SW and that little stuff SE of us mirrors the 500 flow -- well, not too surprising, just a good illustration of how 500 MB steers convection.

Later,

Dog

PS SW TX and NM are seeing some big storms about now, and having chased their the lightning must be intense.

DOG:
We could have some heavy rain Sunday night. The GFS has some spots over 2.5"... we'll see...
Jamie

****************
Hi Gary, BREEZY is lucky to have such a loving and caring owner. Good Luck and I know you have your hands full this afternoon.
GaryB.

GARY,

BREEZY IS GOING TO BE A VERY SMART DOGGY.

GARY