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Dry line bulging & rewording of my earlier entry
Above is the NAM forecast for 7 PM Thursday. Notice the dry line bulging through. How can you see this? By looking at the dewpoint gradient. The uniform high dewpoints are over most of Missouri and the rapid drop off is near the state line. If this happens the threat of severe weather will end after the dry line moves through and the dry line is not stopping at 7 PM, but the LATEST DATA HAS THE DRY LINE FURTHER WEST. Many ingredients are coming together for a large outbreak. If the dry line slows down we will be in the targeted area. When will thunderstorms fire up? Right now I am thinking there is enough of a cap to hold off convection until around 3 or 4 PM. There is a powerful shortwave that gains strength as it rounds the base of the upper level trough and rips out into Kansas. This powerful shortwave is very unusual and will wipe away the cap. This is very complex and scary. I will be talking about this tonight, so please watch our newscasts at 5, 6 and 10 PM and I will go over this specific situation in detail.
Posted by at April 5, 2006 12:18 PM
IF WE DO NOT GET THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL GET SOME RAIN OUT OF IT STILL..METRO AND SOUTH. MONICA
We will either get some violent weather with some rain, or no rain at all. Isn't this sad.
Posted by: Monica at April 5, 2006 12:23 PM
What do you think Marshall's chances of tornadoes are tomorrow? I'm a transplant from SW MO and really miss the sometimes violent weather.
Marshal has as much of a threat as anyone else.
Posted by: Darin at April 5, 2006 12:38 PM
If this sweeps through and the models are correct, is it possible that we may not even see one drop of rain, similar to last Sunday? I guess we will just have to wait and see. I am also interested to see if the SPC will upgrade us to a high risk, given this new data.
THE "NEW" NEW DATA HAS US BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF IT.
Posted by: Justin at April 5, 2006 12:47 PM
Thanks for the update and explanation. I was looking at the SPC website and they have us in the bullseye, will be interesting to see where this develops. I'm a NWS spotter so things may be hopping tomorrow. I appreciate you taking the time to go beyond the normal weather broadcasts on TV and radio. The added detail in your blog helps me understand the hows and whys of our weather and will hopefully make me a more effective spotter. Keep up the great work.
THANKS, AND WE ARE BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS BASED ON THE NEW NAM.
Posted by: Jeff at April 5, 2006 12:54 PM
So you think that the storms are going to be east of us again?? That STINKS!! I want to see some good storms. Why is everything missing us to the east? Is this going to be the trend for the whole severe weather season? I hope not or I may have to move east for the spring. Thanks
BACK IN IT RYAN.
Posted by: ryan at April 5, 2006 1:14 PM
*sigh* This actually bums me out that we may miss a chance of T-Storms.. When is the next chance?
Sad is KC!
Posted by: Dave C at April 5, 2006 1:20 PM
Is there a website to see the models? And Has Johnson county, Ks ever had a tornado because I've live here for a while and have never had one.
YES, JOHNSON COUNTY HAS HAD TORNADOES AND I AM CONCERNED FOR TOMORROW.
Posted by: andrew at April 5, 2006 2:20 PM
Is there a forecast model or parameter that forecasts cap values?
MORE ON THIS LATER,
Posted by: Scott at April 5, 2006 3:03 PM
Could this be a repeat of Sunday? I see a trend here. Will the SPC upgrade (or perhaps downgrade) our area? Is this part of the pattern? It seems just like the winter where the storms moved to fast, and this storm is doing the same thing. I guess the question is this: Are the odds going doing down that we WILL have a major outbreak? Based on what you have posted, it seems like the odds are going aginst us. It will be very interesting to see what actually develops!
A SLIGHT SHIFT AND WE ARE IN IT, AND WE ARE NOW IN IT BASED ON THE NEW DATA.
Posted by: Brian at April 5, 2006 3:35 PM
According to the computer models, where does it have the storms developing? My area is south central Douglas County in Kansas.
Posted by: Ryan at April 5, 2006 4:40 PM
Based on what you say, Gary..and what I see in the NAM, and SFC models...I am concerned. I think the timing is lining up more and more. Tomorrow will be very interesting. Being a NWS spotter, I have cleared my evening.
Posted by: Scott at April 5, 2006 4:53 PM
Hey Gary, i was wondering if Thursday's system is, in anyway, similar to the May '03 outbreak we had? If it is, does it look more or less intense?
Thanks Mike Smith
THIS IS A UNIQUE SET UP SO IT IS NOTHING LIKE THAT DAY AT ALL. IT MAY TAKE ON A LIFE OF ITS OWN.
Posted by: Mike Smith at April 5, 2006 5:26 PM
It seems as though here in Independence, we never quite get as many storms as other areas in the metro. Often it feels as though it just moves around us. We *do* get a great view of the gorgeous cell clouds as they move to the east, but aside from lots of rain and some thunder and lightning, nothing seems to come here very often or last as long.
Not that I'm complaining, though. I feel grateful. However, I don't want to get myself too comfortable.
Therefore, I was wondering if you could direct me to a website (or if you know, tell me directly) where I can found out how many (if any) tornadoes have touched down within the Independence city limits...? I've done a small bit of research and so far haven't found any reports for within the city limits (though very close). I'm just extremely curious. I've lived here 13 years, and we've only had the sirens go off 3 times and often that's only because the county is under the warning and not necessarily the Indep. area itself.
I've always been fascinated by tornadoes and one day would love to participate in a chase. I don't really know why severe weather appeals to me so much. I *think* it's due to the awesomeness of God's creation... I've got *hours* of just clouds on several of my mom's home video tapes. :-D
Anyway, I'd love to find out more about tornado statistics for the Independence area if possible.
Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
PS: Looks like it'll be a rather cool day for opening day at Worlds of Fun this Saturday...
We are excited to hear about your passion for weather. I don't have any tapes of clouds, myself... but I can be a dangerous driver when cumulus clouds are building... as I just want to look UP! :) Here are a few links I found on tornadoes in Missouri:
If you don't find what you're looking for there, you might want to contact the National Weather Service.
I hope this helps you!
Posted by: Joy at April 5, 2006 5:27 PM
G-Man: I'm out of town and returning up I-35 tomorrow. Three things:
1) In the absence of a video replay of your forecast on the website, when will you update this blog tonight/tomorrow?
2) Why don't you have a video replay of your latest forecast available on this site?
3) At this time (6:00 pm), what is your "gut feel" for tomorrow? What percentage likelihood do you assign the possibility of the KC area being included in a "PDS" tornado watch tomorrow?
You're The Man! Ed
I WILL TRY TO UPDATE THIS BLOG AFTER THE NEW DATA COMES OUT, PERHAPS AROUND 9:45 PM OR 10:45 PM AT THE LATEST.
WE WILL HAVE OUR LATEST WEATHERCASTS ON THE WEB SOMETIME SOON.
AND, I DON'T HAVE A GUT FEELING YET. I LEAN TOWARDS AN OUTBREAK WITH PDS WATCHES AND A HIGH RISK BY MORNING.
Posted by: Ed at April 5, 2006 6:06 PM
Hi Gary - I enjoy your enthusiasm for the weather. When I was a kid in central Iowa during June of 1976 we had an F5 tornado move through the small town about 3 miles west of where I lived. It wiped out the entire town.It was 1km in width and very scary!The sky was a very erie green, I wonder if you could explain the color? I hope we dont see anything like that on Thursday!!
Strong thunderstorms do, indeed, sometimes take on a green hue. They are not always associated with a tornado, though. There is really no explanation on WHY this happens... there are some theories out there... most having to do with the way the sunlight is being scattered.
Posted by: Lynn at April 5, 2006 6:46 PM
OK, my prediction 18 hours out.
I think the models today were overdoing the rapid moving dry line punch just a bit. At 1700 the dry line in Kansas will be about halfway between Manhattan and Topeka, trailing southward. Storms fire up along the dry line and move rapidly NE/ENE just after noon. Segmented supercells at first eventually congealing into a squall line by the time they reach the eastern edge of the KC Metro. There will be several rotating cells with wall clouds, some funnels, but only one or two small tornadoes in far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lots and lots of hail and wind though.
What do you think, Gary?
Gary will likely post his thoughts in a blog entry later this morning.
Posted by: John Sickels at April 5, 2006 6:52 PM
Hey Gary I just cant wait till tomorrow i would love to see a tornado or just a funnel cloud. Just hopefully no one gets hurt from it. What are my chances of seeing one tomorrow. What do the people on the NOAA weather radio say during there breifings and how much would one of those cost. Thanks keep up the good work tomorrow should be interesting.
Of course you mean you want to see one ON TV, right? :) I am sure you know to stay indoors, away from windows during severe weather.
Posted by: Daniel at April 5, 2006 7:15 PM
Another Question Gary:
When we under the gun for such a big threat, when it appears like all the conditions are together and when SPC has us under a moderate or high risk, why don't they just issue a watch instead? I ask that becasue when they issue a watch, that does not mean we will see anything anymore than when they have us in a high risk, correct? I have always wondered why in the winter they issue a winter storm watch 36 hours in advance, and sometimes they will issue a winter storm warning when nothing is happening (case and point was this last winter strom that we didn't get.) Please, do not miss understand me Gary I am just curious.
I know you are very busy looking at all the data and I also understand things could change quickly. Have a great evening, and I will be watching tomorrow!
P.S. Thanks so much for the blog and taking the time to answer our questions!
The SPC issues it's convective outlooks a couple of days in advance... this is a discussion of likley hazards... basically SPECIFIC info on that day... and GENERAL information for the next two days.
A tornado/severe thunderstorm watch is typically issued 3 to 6 hours before an event.
A winter storm watch is typically issued 24-48 hours of an event, when there is a 50% chance of a warning being issued.
Does that make sense?
Posted by: Brian at April 5, 2006 9:55 PM