KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Final Blog on this BUST and Friday Night Movie

Now, it is officially over. There are still a few thunderstorms near the Nebraska border and east of Kansas City at 9:20 PM, but it is over. SPC should never have issued that last tornado watch. They were smart not to issue one for the longest time, but then they just overreacted to the dry line when it was clearly over. Oh well. They aren't the only ones who made mistakes today.

This storm is HUGE and strong. Just look at the satellite picture. WOW! HOW? HOW? HOW? Another storm that leaves a bad taste in our mouth. Very sad. We were just in the wrong part of the storm. We were in the middle of the high risk, but looking back on this we only had the dry line to play with. The triple point and warm front were WAY north of us. Thunderstorms along the dry line quite often act EXACTLY the way they did yesterday and we should have known better.

Did you know that I am in a movie? It is at the TIVOLI Friday evening at 7 PM called "OPENING". I am the weatherman in the movie, but only on the radio, describing a tornado coming into the KC metro area. Come by and say hello and see the movie. FRIDAY NIGHT AT 7 PM. I will be there after the 6 PM SHOW.

Dear Gary,

I live in Southern Leavenworth County. The old-timers around here claim there is a weather phenomenon called “The Tonganoxie Split�? wherein approaching storms are said to “split�? as they approach Leavenworth County, often (not always) sending the bad weather North and South of the county. Have you ever heard of this? Yesterday’s pattern looked strangely familiar. Keep up the great work!

Tony,

There is no such thing as the Tonganoxie Split. Dan Henry made up the phrase decades ago to cover his butt when he missed a forecast. Yes, storm systems can split and miss you but just as often the converge and hit.

Gary

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I think rather than watch TWC I am going to have my folks in Phoenix just read your blog. I keep telling them no matter what TWC says it isn't always happening in Lenexa. Even the May 4th, 2003 outbreak (which almost hit my hospital and I took the day off anyway so missed the whole thing) still had Lenexa in the sun. Although I'm glad no one was hurt here yesterday the build up was so huge and I was so expectant (even though I didn't get my tornado tummy, which I've had 3 times during a severe outbreak in my 9 years here, and always been right), I was still disappointed we got nothing.

JERI,

I WAS MORE RELIEVED!

GARY

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Taking my own emotion out of it, I would say that all involved, Gary/team, SPC and NWS still was pretty good based on the events of yesterday. 220+ reports in from yesterday, and seems to fall mainly in the high/moderate risk areas. Yesterday, after the bust..I was ready to give up on any weather..but given a night to rest on it, I can't get away!

Gary...you and your team have done a great job in communicating the factors and keeping the public informed. I hope more and more, people understand that forecasting is a NIGHTMARE to do! Very time consuming, and really adds to the frustration when you have been working on forecasting a storm for days, and it moves or fizzles out at the last second.

Great work team, and look forward to the next one!

SCOTT,

GREAT OBSERVATION! I HATE SPENDING DAYS WORKING ON FORECASTING A BIG STORM FOR IT TO JUST MISS US. THIS IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS. WE WILL DO A BETTER FORECAST THE NEXT TIME.

GARY

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I think i need to send the state of Oklahoma a bill for washing my car today.. the wind flow must have been crazy, because everything that was left outside in last night's rain is covered in a thin layer of BRIGHT RED dust. clearly not dust from around here.. had to be from OK or someplace with bright red soil.

anyway, we ended up with .39"

GLEN,

WE DIDN'T GET ANY RAIN, SO OUR CARS ARE CLEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE LINE. 0.39" IS AWESOME. I WOULD HAVE LOVED IT. I THINK TRENTON HAS HAD ABOUT 5 INCHES OF RAIN MORE THAN KANSAS CITY.

GARY

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Gary, Jamie
Now that the excitement is over I now look to the future. Last month ya'll said there was still a chance of a hard freeze mid April according to your theory. I held off planting grass in my weed and mud covered back yard as I value your predictions. Now that temps are rising, do you still see a hard freeze in the future or is it safe to plant? I've been looking at Zoysia since my attempts with fescue failed in the clay. And a freeze on freshly planted zoysia plugs would be devastating. Also, when will you post your summer outlook?

JIM,

IT MAY DROP TO NEAR 29 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS. OTHER THAN THIS I AM NOT SURE OF ANOTHER FREEZE. WE MUST WATCH THE PATTERN CLOSELY THE NEXT THREE WEEKS.

GARY

These types of storms have been happening all fall and winter. Every station and the weather service played chicken little on this storm. We did not even get a drop of rain much less a storm.

Please try not to say how bad it will be 3 days ahead of time. There is no way of knowing that far in advance. I know every one wants to be the first one to predict it. I think being the correct predictor is more important than being first.

LEONARD,

I AM MORE CONCERNED WITH BEING ACCURATE. AND, YOU SAY THAT YOU DIDN'T EVEN GET A DROP OF RAIN. WELL, I NEVER THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IT SEEMS LIKE "CHICKEN LITTLE" BUT HOW OFTEN DOES THIS HAPPEN REALLY. THINK ABOUT IT. IT IS RARE THAT WE MISS IT. YOU ONLY NOTICE WHEN WE DO MISS IT. START KEEPING TABS AND I KNOW YOU WILL BE SURPRISED.

I AM STARTING TO GET DEFENSIVE.

GARY

Gary,
Remember and don't forget..you all are doing the best you can with the tools you have. Most people, years past were content with "is it going to rain?". Now, it seems like people expect "is it going to rain on my garden in the NW corner of my backyard, in the next 10 minutes, and how much"? We as a viewing audience have become spoiled and set expectations too high, even with the cool new technology that the weather folks have to work with. With the higher focus on weather since the most recent year's storm outbreaks/Katrina, etc...people get more info, have higher expectations, and are very quick to criticize - but yet...no credence to the fact Mother Nature will not be predictable, and certainly not to the micro scale people think is possible.

Hang in there..keep up the great work!

SCOTT,

THANK YOU FOR THE SUPPORT!

GARY

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Gary,

Don't worry about your negative critics. You did the right thing, I believe. You said that it would be a dangerous situation with the potential for severe storms. You never promised that a tornado was going to plow thru Overland Park, Brookside and then head on up I-35. Think what people would be saying if you said "Oh, we might get a storm here or there, no biggie" and then tornadoes destroyed parts of KC. You'd never hear the end of it.

Summary -- you didn't promise the KC metro would get hit bad with tornadoes, and we didn't. You said that there would likely be severe storms in the area, which there were.

You're doing a great job. You let your #1 most accurate rating speak for itself!

TIM,

THANK YOU FOR THE SUPPORT! I TOOK THE COUGH OUT JUST TO BE NICE.

GARY

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Don't get to upset Gary, I think this shows that people for some odd reason are absolutely fascinated about weather. Sure, we don't like to see peoples lives turned upside down because of a Tornado, but on the flip side (no pun intended) Having a severe thunderstand is an adrenal rush for even for those of us that stay at home watching TV and surfing weather sites on the internet. I was absolutely jazzed the last few days because of the potential for severe weather, and I know you guys in the forecast centers were excited also. But Mother Nature took a turn we didn't like, once again, and unforutnily, you guys get the blame for it, and it isn't your faults.. *sigh* It just goes with terriority I guess... Keep a smile on your face for us we still enjoy watching 41 weather every night and checking this blog a million times a day.

DAVE,

THANKS. I THINK MOST OF THE RESPONSES HAVE BEEN POSITIVE!

GARY

KSHB Team,

Just wanted to say that I've been following the blog for a few months now, and I think it is a very valuable tool for folks in and around KC - especially those of us who are "weather-heads". The great thing about the blog, and it was perfectly illustrated yesterday, is that it offers a way for you to inform us when the weather drastically changes from the "official" forecast...and the detail you give really helps us understand why things changed the way they did.

I say, keep up the good work, keep the blog going, and don't sweat the negative comments!

TYE,

GREAT ADVICE! THANK YOU!

GARY

Gary - hang in there - as the other guy said, forecasting can be a nightmare, but rather safe than sorry - anyway, there were bad looking supercells, and btw today, look at the middle Tennessee area - bad, very bad - would we really want that through KC?
I've heard of urban renewal, but that would be extreme!!! Anyway, it looks like a bad afternoon/evening for Tennessee, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a substantial injury/death total out of Tennesse, altho occuring during the day should save lives this time round.

You guys do a great job in a difficult field - as I said, the High Risk was justified - it is still been a historic period the last 30 days for us. Now nature needs to send more rain.

Cheers,
The Dog

To all the posters:

1. The forecast was right on until the very last minute.

One thing we have to keep in mind, especially with severe weather or any weather for that matter is that it is dynamic and constantly changing even as it's happening.

Things can change at the last minute, that's why the weather team was at the station providing updates up until we were out of the threat.

Every forecaster in the world thought we were under the gun. Based on the science and technology we have now along with the history of storms, all the ingredients were there for these storms. They did materialize as they said they would, they just moved along a different track and mother nature removed a key ingredient or 2 to end the event.

It's now that big if a deal. It will happen again.

Those storms went supercell quick. That's the most severe of the severe. We were very lucky we didn't get long track tornados out of this one. It could have been another Oklahoma city for the KC area.

I don't think most people knew how close we came to a real wide spread severe event.

Keep up the good work gang.

JEFF,

GREAT THOUGHTS! THANKS. THE MOST AMAZING THING IS THAT THE SUPERCELLS FORMED AND THEN FELL APART. SOMETIMES YOU WON'T GET ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL, BUT THE 5 OR 6 SEPARATE SUPERCELLS TO BE THERE AND START RAGING OUR WAY IS THE MOST PUZZLING. WE REALLY DID COME CLOSE TO A VERY BAD DAY.

GARY

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I am VERY GLAD you let us know when it could be bad ahead of time. My parents moved here in 2001 for me to look after them. The first thing I worried about was their not realizing how quickly the roads and their front steps could ice up, so I depend on the forecast and call them to tell them when not to be caught out if the roads ice up. (Remember that horrible pileup on I-29...I am always preaching to them about that one) Then came the spring of 03. I heard about the storms that were headed our way 1 day early. It did NOT LOOK like tornado weather that day much less the day before. I called my parents and told them to be watching tv that afternoon about 4 and ready to go to the basement. If not for the early warning I might not have known to pay attention that day.

It hit exactly when you said it would and the F4 tornado hit their house. If they had not been in the basement they might have been killed. If I had not been aware ahead of time and called them that morning maybe they would have been out driving or somewhere not close to a basement.

So, that weather forecast saved my parents' life. That is the long and short of it. One of the first places it hit was a newly built cul-de-sac of old people's housing. One 95-year-old man had started back up his basement stairs to get a flashlight when it hit. The house next to his was completely gone...that woman and her dog were safe in their basements. The old people in this cul-de-sac only had about 15 seconds of warning after the siren went off. How many more would have been killed had people not heard that it "could get bad" and known to be on the lookout?

For those who have ever wondered, it DID sound exactly like a train. It didn't LOOK like tornado weather that day. My mother said "I hear a train" and my dad said "Never been one through here before" and my dad looked out the basement window and saw it and said "I don't think it's coming this way" just in time for it to implode the basement window and cut his wrist.

So, please do not change!!!!!! Please keep letting us know when it could get bad. Some of us need to warn our elderly parents who may be new to town. Also the company I work for is always hiring people from out of town and I always worry they won't know about these things. Even after having been in the big one, my mother the other day said if she got caught out on K-7 and a tornado came up she could pop into Wal-Mart. AIEEEEEE!

Gary, I'd like to see the movie and I'm sure you had the best part, but I'll probably wait till it comes in DVD. I'm just that way. Hey, when TWISTER came out, all the critics panned it. Now it's a cult film.
For JIM, our average last frost for the last 100 years or so is APRIL 19TH. You can or should have already planted anything that matures underground. Potatoes, Radishes, Carrots and even spring lettuce. After April 19, or the last frost, you can pretty much plant whatever you want. My farmer neighbors already have their tomato plants in and are covering them with 5 gallon buckets. Gary's theory does need to be revised as the pattern changes, but 60 days ago yesterday, we only got a trace. With his therory, expect rain or storms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Gary B.

GARY,

REMEMBER, CONCERNING THE THEORY, THAT WE WILL GET DIFFERENT SPECIFIC RESULTS WITH EACH CYCLE. WE CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH THE SAME PATTERN. REGAURDLESS....GREAT OBSERVATIONS.

GARY

If you are still baffled about why the metro area missed the storms last night, you should have been watching The Weather Channel. About the time Tornado Watch 160 was issued, Dr. Greg Forbes was explaining why he thought the storms would spit around the Kansas City area. The explaination might not have been offered if Mike Slidel of TWC had not been in town with no severe weather to stand out in. My layman's interpretation was that there was warm moist air coming into the area from the Gulf. However there were also drier winds coming into the area from the Southwest. Forbes predicted that this convergence would push the moist air to regions Northeast of Kansas City toward Iowa.

Mike

MIKE,

THIS REALLY IS NOT THE REASON. AND EVEN THOUGH I HAVE SOME ANSWERS IT DOESN'T MATTER. IT IS STILL BAFFLING. DO YOU KNOW HOW DIFFICULT IT IS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE 5 OR 6 SUPERCELLS AND THEN THEY JUST FALL APART. THERE MAY BE A LOGICAL EXPLANATION, BUT IT IS STILL BAFFLING.

GARY

Hey weather team,

Just wanted to let you guys know your still the best weather team in town. Dont feel to bad about it, all forcasters get a bust once and a while. I remember a few years ago, i think it was june of 2004. Your team forcasted thunderstorms during the night and and that the team would be at the station keeping us informed. Their was another local weather team that called for "maybe a few spinkles, nothing much".

Talk about a bust! 2:30am weather radio went off. "Tornado warning for Clay county,MO." I fliped the tv on and you team was on the air, that other channel was still in normal broadcasting.

Now im not kidding on this... it was 35 mins later that other weather team got on the air. Looking like they just crawled out of bed and ran to the station...

So to everyone who is bashing the NBC Weather Team: JUST BACK OFF! These things happen.

Hope to see some good storms some time soon!

Mike Smith

MIKE,

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

GARY

Hi Gary,

I live in the Leawood area and although we had several episodes of thunder through here, we got a tiny bit of rain. I noticed that there was a LARGE storm in SE Kansas and a smaller storm above it to the slight NW. As the maps progressed, the larger storm seemed to pull out all of the energy from the smaller one. Had the opposite occurred, then, according to the trajectory of the smaller storm, we would have been hit big time!

Keep up the GREAT work. All of us in my household appreciate the hard work you and the Team always do!!!

Anne

ANNE,

GOOD OBSERVATION. WE DID HAVE ONE SUPERCELL HEADING DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE KC METRO AREA, BUT IT DIDN'T EVEN MAKE IT TO OTTAWA. GOOD NEWS THAT IT DIDN'T, BUT WE NEED RAIN.

GARY

You guys should not beat yourselves up over Thursday's forecast. Correctly predicting the weather 100% of the time is not possible because you can not control it! I would rather be safe than sorry. At least (some) people were aware it could have been a dangerous situation and were staying alert and informed. Missing a tornado outbreak is a relief to me. I like the excitement as much as anybody, but when people can be injured/killed and property can be damaged, that is not something I look forward to happening. Your weather team does a great job with the forecast, so keep up the good work!

Jason

JASON,

THANKS! WE REALLY AREN'T BEATING OURSELVES UP OVER THIS.

GARY

I think all of the weather professionals do the best they can with an in-exact science. What bothers me is the continual touting of "the best tools available". "We can predict severe storms to the minute and to the exact location." Well, we know that is not true. Do the best you can but stop overselling your tools and abilities. We are not all idiots out here. We respect your expertise but not your BS.

ED,

IT IS OUR PROMOTIONS DEPARTMENT THAT MAKES THESE DECISIONS. I AM ALWAYS TRYING TO EXPLAIN THAT THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE TEAM, AND OUR FORECASTING ABILITY. THEY LIKE TO PROMOTE THE EQUIPMENT.

GARY

Gary - 8 dead and that's going to increase - did we really want that here? Again, great job guys - we will go thru this again, and I shudder to think about Tue and later on when temps get into the 80F range.

Unbelievable radar echoes from southeastern Arkansas, Mississipi, and Alabama - absolutely monstrous supercells with a hook echo on each. What follows is a quote from my news on my providers website:

"Steven Davis, who lives about a block away from the hard-hit subdivision, said he was at home when he heard the storm was coming. He ran to a neighbor's home that had a crawl space to take shelter.
"When the tornado came through, the roof was off just like that," Davis said as he snapped his fingers. Houses on each side of his street were destroyed.
"Our neighborhood is leveled," Davis said.
In Cheatham County, just west of Nashville, Sheriff John Holder said the tornado passed over his office.
"I looked up and you can't believe the stuff that was in the air," he said.

Through the end of March, 286 tornadoes had hit the United States, more than four times as many as the past three years. The number of tornado-related deaths was 38 before Friday's storms. The average number of deaths from 2003 to 2005 was 45 a year, the prediction center said."

What if this had happened here, and it well could have - let us be thankful it did not, and let us be thankful we were prepared, by Gary and the SPC for what could have happened - 10 dead now, having to boil water in Galletin, TN.

And the season hasn't really begun!!!

Take care all, and watch out for Tue, if the satellite off the west coast tonight is a suggestion of the next systems potential strength - we'll see of course.

Cheers,
Dog

DOG,

THE PATTERN IS RELAXING FOR A LITTLE WHILE. NOW WE JUST NEED RAIN AND I DON'T SEE ANY.

GARY

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Hey I am just writing in to say what a disappointing storm and some people need to stay off the blog if all they are going to do is be negative. It drives me crazy how there can be a line of severe thunderstorms moving northeast and then they just decide to move east I thought for sure when I saw the tornado warnings in kansas and oklahoma that Appleton City would get hit and what do u know all we get is a shower. Oh well maybe the next storm will get us. Keep up the great work guys...weather is so fustrating, I wonder why i want to be a Meteorologist.

DANIEL,

HAVING WEATHER AS A HOBBY IS A GREAT THING. HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET MORE EXCITEMENT AS THE SPRING PROGRESSES. AND MORE IMPORTANTLY PLEASE LETS SET UP INTO A BETTER PATTERN NEXT YEAR.

GARY

Gary and Jamie,

I too am relieved that the worst didn't materialize. You seemed so worried, so I knew that it was nothing to take lightly. Thank you for keeping us updated every step of the way...your team is truly the best! I'm sure we'll have several more chances to worry again over the next few months. So for now...whew!:) Keep up the great work guys!

Janine

JANINE,

THANK YOU SO MUCH! HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

GARY

Well, it looks like we;ll have a break for a while.

If anyone's interested, the last KC area spotter training class has been rescheduled for:

20 April 06/Thursday

Parkville/Riverside, MO
(Platte County) 7:00pm CDT * RESCHEDULED FROM 3/30/06 *

New Location...
Riverside Community
4498 NW High Drive
Riverside, MO

Contact Information: Platte County EMA (816)858-1966

More info here at the http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/safety/outreach

JEFF,

THANKS FOR LETTING EVERYONE KNOW. IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN STORM SPOTTING YOU SHOULD DEFINITELY GO TO ONE OF THESE STORM SPOTTER MEETINGS.

GARY

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Just a follow up - I wanted you to know I DO notice when you get it right. I AM a loyal NBC watcher for just that reason. But this weather pattern, and you have said it yourself many times, has been much more miss than hit.

Then we get all hyped upBy all forecasters 3 days in advance, about a great chance of a tornado outbreak that just did not happen anywhere near us!

I still say we are showing signs of a drought!

Again - I AM a loyal NBC fan and will be. One wrong forecast is not going to make me switch!

Well at least this next week will be easier - hot and dry :-)
Leonard

LEONARD,

WE WILL BE STARTING OUR DROUGHT WATCH AGAIN THIS WEEK. BUT, I STILL FEEL THE PATTERN WILL GET WET DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SPRING.

GARY

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Gary,
I am a big fan. I have turned my entire office into Gary and the KSHB weather team fans. Whenever the weather changes they all ask what Gary is saying. I direct them here. You really didn't miss the storm. Just like the snow storms, they all happened, they just materialized further East and North of KC. Nothing to be upset about there. I do have a little bone to pick. I really feel your comment about Dan Henry covering his butt was totally uncalled for and unprofessional. I understand the blog is a place to say exactly how you feel, however, you get very defensive when people attack you and you took a shot at Dan Henry. Ann

Ann,

It is what Dan Henry told me when I came. So, I wasn't attacking him and I was just saying it in good humor. I can see why you took it the way you did, but I meant no disrespect for Dan Henry. This is why we say it is the Tonganoxie Split. Although I don't say it because it doesn't really exist.

Gary

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Gary, Jamie and Jeff - You are probably growing weary of my postings, but I had
make mention of today's (Sat 4-8-06)storms in the far southeast - absolute beasts, and I counted at least 7 separate lines of severe cells around 1300 or so - wow, even from this distance that is incredible, and sad for those hit. Even suburban Atlanta has gotten hit, with Marietta, Georgia reporting significant damage. What a system, and again, how lucky we were!!!

Let us remember in our thoughts, and for those who are religious, in prayers, the 12 or so killed - just bad, not to mention the pets that went to dog or cat heaven as well.

Take Care All,
And Cheers,
StormDog

*******************************************************Nice dialog all! Wish it could be real time. I like the 174hr GFS 18z. Looong time away, but looks like another high amplitude low potential.

Curious..in the weather team training, was there ever discussions of what effects urban heat islands can cause? I see where its possible the heat may create further convection, but any other effects?

I am not inferring anything, but just trying to learn and gain info.

Looks pretty dry for awhile...

Scott,

Heat islands are interesting. In theory they may enhance convection in a localized spot. Sometimes, during the summer around here on a day where we have fair weather cumulus clouds, you will notice a bigger cloud over downtown, and it sometimes is the last cloud to dissipate during the evening.

Jeff