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I want to go turkey hunting in the morning in the Nelson area. Will I get damp, a little wet, or a lot wet, sometime between 5 and 9 am?

DARIN:
Sometime on Saturday we should see a break in the rain. Right now, it looks like it COULD be during the late morning/early afternoon. But the timing of each round can change. Check back with Gary tonight at 10pm for an update. In any case... it will be MUDDY! :)
Jamie

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Does anything about this line of storms seem tordano bearing to you guys?
Michelle

MICHELLE:
No... we are not expecting any severe weather. Thank goodness! Just heavy rain and frequent lightning!
Jamie

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This is kind of out of your area, but does Cedar Co. look to get as much rain as we are now? My parents live down there, and IT IS DRY!!! Stockton Lake is down, way down. Everything seems to miss them. Their spring fed pond is almost non-existent. Please send it their way if you can. ;-)

IVY:
They should get some good soaking rains down there, too!
Jamie

and remember "TURN AROUND... DON'T DROWN"!

What the heck does that mean? Is that some sort of safety measure, like "Stop, Drop, and Roll?"

AMBER:
Yes it is. MOST flood related deaths happen in VEHICLES. People drive through water that is too deep for their cars. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen this!! So if the road is covered with water... Turn around, don't drown.
Jamie

*****************
Well everyone...it looks like the drought buster has set up. Great news, getting brown and crunchy in April was very depressing. Lets hope this comes through in waves like predicted so we can absorb it and not pronounced flooding.
Robert

****************
I'm curious how much rain we have received at this point (12:30 PM Friday). Seems like there has been quite a bit of rain already downtown.

MARK:
Here are some numbers as of 1pm:

DOWNTOWN KC: .36"
KCI: .42"
LEAVENWORTH: .71"
LIBERTY: .48"
SHAWNEE: .45"
PLAZA: .38"
INDEPENDENCE: .36"
ST. JOSEPH: .39"
OLATHE: .33"
WESTON: .61"

We will bring you more totals throughout the event!
Jamie

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I saw on NWS website that they placed us in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. Are we going to see severe storms now?

SHELLEY:
We are not going to see any severe weather today... tomorrow we will have to watch it. Especially if we have a dry period and the atmosphere can recover/destabilize.
Jamie

*****************
Saw you were giving rainfall updates as of 1pm Friday and wanted to let you know we have .50" here in Greenwood.

I wonder if my neighbors were mad that I was mowing at 7:30 this morning before the storm came thru? Oh well!

Tim in Greenwood

HI, TIM!
You gotta do, what you gotta do! I saw a LOT of people mowing yesterday evening and this morning! Thanks for the rainfall update!
Jamie

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.47 in Lee's Summit so far.

*************
S. KC as of 2 pm -- .80". Woo hoo. Real live rain.

Hank, you're funny! :)
Jamie

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will it be doing this same thing in branson this weekend? i.e. raining the whole time?

DIANE:
There will be some rainy periods in Branson. Even here, it is not going to rain the WHOLE time... but we are expecting some significant amounts through Sunday.
Jamie

******************
Just wondering... could this weather be causing the awful headache I woke up with this morning? I've heard about people feeling weather fronts in their joints...

CARRIE,

PRESSURE CHANGES HAVE BEEN SHOWN TO AFFECT HEADACHES. THE PRESSURE IS FALLING NOW.

GARY

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Hey my Weatherbug says they just cancelled the FlOod Watch because the storms are shifting southerward.

JERI,

THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ADDING TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW IF WE GO INTO THE HEAVIER RAIN.

GARY

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As of 3:45 I have had .64" in northern Leenxa and it is not currently raining. How long will this break last? Are you still expecting a lot of rain overnight?

David

DAVID,

I AM EXPECTING AT LEAST ONE MORE INCH OF RAIN. PERHAPS MUCH MORE.

GARY

Hi all:

Well, the NWS yo-yos again...See below...

Saturday April 28, 2006

Well, what had been a 2-4 inch forecast of heavy rain, by afternoon, appeared to be diminishing quite a bit, as the NWS noted “ANY LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW MEXICO SPREADS NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP TO SHARPEN AN INVERTED TROUGH/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NRN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY DEVELOP UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF ERN KS/WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DEEPLY SATURATED AND NEUTRALLY STABLE TO UPRIGHT CONVECTION. WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER DARK...ENHANCING NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF WARM/MOIST AIR. HOWEVER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER WEST CENTRAL MO/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.�

While it was good to get .50 inches, it did sound like another system that did not live up to its potential. Still, something was better than nothing I suppose.

(The Ozarks are where the heaviest rain has been all day, so they, unfortunately, are right about that I guess.)

Dog

STORM DOGGY,

REMEMBER WHAT I PROMISED? 1 INCH OF RAIN WIDESPREAD. AND VERY LIKELY IT WILL END UP WITH 1.5" WIDESPREAD. WHAT DO YOU MEAN NOT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED? WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

GARY

*****************************888
I get the hunch we are not going to get all that we think we are going to get...max 1.5 inch for us in LS I predict..though I still think it will be less than that -

SCOTT,

WHO THOUGHT WE WOULD GET MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES? THE COMPUTERS, THAT'S WHO. ONE MOMENT THE BLOGGERS THINK WE WON'T GET ANY RAIN. AND I PLEAD WITH YOU TO THINK ONE INCH AND MAYBE A BIT MORE. BUT, THEN YOU GET YOUR HOPES UP. NOW, 1 TO 1.5" ISN'T ENOUGH. I DON'T GET IT.

GARY

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So what are you expecting for the Northland. Is this going to be the heavist rain or are we in for SEVERAL MORE heavy rounds?

MATT,

I AM EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO COME IN LATE TONIGHT. I WILL UPDATE THE BLOG AFTER THE NEW DATA COMES IN TONIGHT.

GARY

**************
Dont let them get to you Gary. Some people want it all. Areas to the West of us have had over 2 inches, we still have all night and tomorrow. Everybody will get at least 1-1.5 inches of rain by the time its over. Lets see if the rain shifts north tonight, we may get much more.

Great Job
Joe

JOE,

I GET A BIT DEFENSIVE. I TRY TO ENJOY THE STORM AS IT IS APPROACHING.

THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT.

GARY

*****************
Once again, the heavy rain DID NOT happen (at least not yet.) No computer model figured that the storms to our south would "rob" the rain from us. As always, the shield around KC holds. I think by tomorrow, we will see partly sunny skies, and no rain. TWC is forecasting 70% of rain last look. We shall see. This storm has turned out not to be that big of deal so far. Oh well.

Brian

BRIAN,

RAIN IS INCREASING. BE PATIENT.

GARY

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Just read the NWS disucssion, and one of the things I thought was intersting was this:

"ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERN OF THE MODELS. IF FUTURE NAM MODEL RUNS PLACE THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER POPS AND LESS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER AS IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO DISCOUNT THE NAM."

My gut feeling tells me that once again, this storm is not going to do anything. These storms seem to like to pull a fast one at the last minute. If we end up with an inch of rain that is a good thing. I doubt it will be much more than that. Like I said, I think tomorrow is going to end up being a very nice day! Just wait and see!

************
Well my dog sure knows it has been raining off and on all day, especially the real (and imaginary ) thunderclaps she hears. I just hope it is a hard enough rain to wash off my car on the way to work tomorrow. I don't know how anyone can doubt your rainfall total predictions since it is going to be rainy all weekend.

JERI,

IT ISN'T GOING TO RAIN ALL WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL HAVE TWO OR THREE ROUNDS. ROUND 2 IS MOVING IN NOW. THE HEAVIEST BAND MAY COME IN AFTER 3 AM.

GARY

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First and foremost...Gary, I LOVE THE PASSION! I am not indicating you said we would get the 3-4 inches, but we all did buy into the hype of the NAM/GFS projections. But as usual this year, it will miss us. This time, south.

I said before this storm started, I thought we would not break the one inch mark in LS [The SDE - Storm Dog Effect]. To date with this storm, we are at .47 in LS. Looking at the link below, two things are interesting to me...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes [ Animate, expand loop to 40 frames, and look at the IR]

1. The moisture is coming all the way from the Pacific!
2. I think we are getting a bit dryslotted on the back end of the moisure...perhaps the jet missed just a hair to the south of us.

All joking/poking aside, the team is doing a great job. Its very easy to be the armchair meteorologist..LOL.

Oh...as a side note. The first real Invest of the season is out for the Atlantic [minus the early S. Atlantic one]. Looks like the last front the blew out to the Atlantic left behind a pesky low in its wake that seems to be potentially developing and dropping SE into the warmer SSTs. Not sure if I can handle both an active May/June with mesocyclones and tropical developments..sheesh.

Later gater,
Scott

SCOTT,

I WAS ALWAYS SKEPTICAL OF THE 3 INCHES OR MORE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY WARM AIR NEAR BY. BUT AT LEAST IT IS SOMETHING CLOSE. REMEBER AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS STORM WAS NOT EVEN SHOWING UP.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

GARY

**************
Jamie,Gary,
Do the models or trending this evening tend to show any decrease in the projected rainfall the next 48 hours? it seems south of Kansas City is getting the pronounced heavier bands currently.

SkyMan ( Leawood )

SKYMAN,

WE MAY NOT GET MUCH RAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

GARY

*****************
Hi Gary:

It is Brian from Overland Park- AGAIN. :-) I wanted to let you know that I think you are doing a good job. I guess I just wanted it to happen faster. I think what makes weather both interesting and sometimes frustrating is you never know what is going to happen. You make a call, and you have a 50% chance of being right on the ball, or a 50% chance of being wrong. (I had to say that since weather guys like percentages. I know in one blog I said it was going to be sunny tomorrow, but I said that because if we do get sunshine, than I can say I forecasted it! :-)

By the way, are there times when you want to get into mother natures head and see what she is thinking? :-) LOL. I think she likes pulling tricks on us on purpose!

Later,
Brian

BRIAN,

GOOD PERCENTAGES.

GARY

*****************
Gary -

I'm super-satisfied with what I got (little bit less than 1 inch in So. KC). Who in everloving common sense would want 4 inches at one time? Most of that would be runoff or flooding.

More to the point...suppose it does clear up tomorrow... instability, high dew points, shear, this that and the other... is our chance of severe weather much more likely than what would have been thought earlier today or last night?

Also, to tidy up that first paragraph... you all and others predicted, 1,2,3, inches of rain and perhaps more for the ENTIRE WEEKEND. Didn't this thing start this morning? Aren't we still in the 3rd innning? Ok, enough bad sports analogies. Good night!

HANK,

YES, BUT WE AREN'T BEING NO HITTED. SO, WE WIN IN THE END. ENOUGH RAIN, BUT I WANT A LITTLE BIT MORE.

GARY