| Kansas City, MO

« The STORM DOG FACTOR | Main | Spring Surprise Factor »

 April 25, 2006

Frost by Thursday morning?

thu.bmp
Click on map to enlarge

Above is the NAM surface prog for Thursday morning. The sky will be clear, high pressure will be sitting over southern Missouri, and with light winds we have a strong potential for some frost. It will be cloudy tonight and the clouds will act like a blanket and not allow a frost. If the sky clears by 5 AM or so then temperatures would easily drop to close to freezing tonight, but I am not expecting this and as a result it will likely stay near or above 40 degrees.

The weather is getting interesting by Friday as the next system heads our way. There will be areas of rain and thunderstorms, but we may be in the wrong spot again. This Friday system would never have a chance in the winter months, but since it is almost May we are seeing how much easier it is to produce rain.

Keep in mind that we continue to cycle through the same pattern that set up in early November. It really is fascinating. The storm we just had is very similar to two storm systems we had in December. But, since it is still the same pattern I am rather concerned with what could happen as we go through May and June. I still feel that we will have some significant severe weather and also at least average if not above average precipitation. There will still be a couple of dry spells that should not last as long as the ones we have had earlier this year.

Gary

Posted by at April 25, 2006 9:43 AM

Comments

***********
Storm Dog here - yes, my luck on storms is as good as getting rich - it doesn' happen where I live - never has. Why don't all of the storm enthusiasts in KC take up a collection of a couple million dollars and we will move to the deserts of New Mexico, where one NEVER expects rain, so isn't disgusted. And one would not have to mow the gargantuan lots all house in Blue Springs have.

No thunder at my house - didn't know it was raining - an additional .48 in the rain gauge - Big deal... Still better than nothing, but it does encourage the grass to grow.

YAWN, YAWN, YAWN

The Dog

STORM DOGGY,

YAWN? COME ON! YOU DID GET ALMOST 1/2" OF RAIN. IT IS COOL SO IT IS SOAKING IN. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EXCITING. I AM VERY LUCKY AS I EXPERIENCED 2.23" OF RAIN. YOU WERE SO CLOSE. BEFORE THE END OF MAY YOU WILL BE SATISFIED, OR YOU BETTER BE.

GARY

Posted by: StormDog at April 25, 2006 10:04 AM

***************
Are we going to get the Royals game in tonight or is the pattern beginning at four going to carry through the night??

Thanks

MIKE,

A MISTY LIGHT RAIN RARELY EVER CAUSES A RAIN DELAY.

GARY

Posted by: Mike at April 25, 2006 11:49 AM

************************
HI - Just want a good frog strangler - that hasn't happened for quite a while - for my house in Blue Springs, btw, my gut instincts were correct, most of the good stuff did not impact us, and .50" isn't going to break a long term drought. We need inches rain here, like you got. But for Blue Springs, and other places, things just seem to go around us more often than not (not always of course) The fact that I could see, lets say two inches in May here, while all around us folks are getting three to six inches of rain won't change my opinion on Blue Springs not receiving the most that is to be had. There must be a reason that ALL of the growing guides have us in a circle of warmer climate than surrounding us - what that is, heat island effect, natural geography, whatever, it is real - I had last seen it in a Missouri Conservationist. Perhaps that plays a part in the fact that we could have a drier microclimate here. I do believe that we viewers, unless stomped idiots, can off the scientists valuable tips on long-term climatological variables between locations, as I am always on about. Small-scale perturbations, differences, geographic and hydrologic could well have an impact on my thoughts - it's just that science, with its fancy computers, and its course of training its specialists in this field tend to freely dimiss those of us who may actually have an important contribution to offer in the furtherment of scientific endeavor in terms of anecdotal evidence.

That's my opinion, anyway.

Dog

STORMY DOGGY,

LET'S PLAY A GAME. I SAY THAT BLUE SPRINGS WILL GET MORE RAIN THAN MY HOUSE IN OVERLAND PARK DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. DO YOU WANT TO PLAY?

GARY

Posted by: StormDog at April 25, 2006 12:28 PM

*******************
I think the yawn is contageous. Yawn! Sure there isn't a Tong split, but how about a LS/BS rain black hole? Dog, be happy you got half an inch..I still only got .28 LOL. I will hold out hope for May/June..as I love to be the optimist! I will say this..the more I learn about forecasting and reading the models, the more I am convinced that it can complicate matters in coming up with a clear picture. All the more kudos to those like Gary/Team that can put together accurate forecasts! I really believe now that intrepetation and gut feelings have a strong role. Now..if I could just get a good forecast specifically tailored to my backyard! Better yet..Gary, here is a thought..continue on with the normal forecast for KC metro and outlying areas, but also include a special forecast for just Storm Dog! HAHAHAHAHA!!!!

SCOTT,

I MAY DO IT!

GARY

Posted by: Scott at April 25, 2006 12:48 PM

********************8
Gary,

Happy Belated Birthday! What do you think of this idea... We (The viewer's) try to guess your age. If we guess correctly, we could then be in the running for some prize. Hehe! Sorry... It was just an idea. Anyway, Have a Happy Belated One.

Mary ~*~

MARY,

HOW OLD DO YOU THINK I AM? IF YOU GET WITHIN THREE I WILL HAVE A PRIZE FOR YOU.

GARY

Posted by: Mary at April 25, 2006 5:03 PM

*****************
Didn't you say you were 44 last night?

Yes, I did! Thank you!

Gary

Posted by: Shelley at April 25, 2006 9:48 PM

***************
Happy belated birthday Gary. Can I play the game? My guess is you are 43, is that within three?

JUSTIN,

I GUESS IT IS EASY TO FIGURE OUT HOW OLD I AM. WHEN I GO TO A SCHOOL AND TALK TO THE YOUNGER KIDS I ASK THEM. THE LAST TIME I DID IT, THE FIRST KID SAID 43? THAT WAS LAST YEAR.

GARY

Posted by: Justin at April 25, 2006 10:07 PM

****************
Gary,
This mist really ads up! I was suprised to see a tenth of an inch in my rain gauge this evening. The nice thing was that it all got to soak in. Hope for rain on Friday!

David
P.S. Happy belated birthday!

DAVID,

ON MY WAY HOME IT WAS RAINING PRETTY HARD. SO, IT WASN'T JUST MIST.

GARY

Posted by: David at April 25, 2006 10:38 PM

******************
Dog..I would play that game..and make sure it has quite the reward. I have no doubt in my mind that for whatever reason, the Southeast and East part of the metro is going to lag this year. I guess it would go with the old method of prediction.."tomorrow will be like today" concept. Remember...like La Nina..the Dog Factor is in effect! PS..speaking of La Nina..looking at the graphs, it seems for La Nina to be declared, it needs to have three months of trending. That being the case, I believe I have seen the trends starting in October of last year and are still in effect... ;-)

SCOTT,

I BELIEVE THAT LA NINA IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. WATCH OUT, IT MAY BE GETTING WET SOON.

GARY

Posted by: Scott at April 25, 2006 10:44 PM

****************
Gary,

My guess is that you are 42. :)


Mary

YOU ARE WITHIN 3.

GARY

Posted by: Mary at April 26, 2006 11:49 AM


*****************
Gary,

I guess I got back to your blog too late. Giving some the opportunity to play. Which is fine.. I didn't think I'd win anyway. Keep up the great work Gary!

Mary ~*~

MARY,

THANKS!

GARY

Posted by: Mary at April 26, 2006 12:05 PM

 
 

March 2009

S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31        

 December 2007
 August 2007
 April 2007
 March 2007
 February 2007
 January 2007
 December 2006
 November 2006
 October 2006
 September 2006
 August 2006
 July 2006
 June 2006
 May 2006
 April 2006
 March 2006
 February 2006
 January 2006
 December 2005
 November 2005
 October 2005
 September 2005
 August 2005
 July 2005
 June 2005
 May 2005
 April 2005
 March 2005

Site Extras

© 2003 - 2006 The E.W. Scripps Co.
Privacy Policy | User Agreement
EEO Public File: 2004 | 2005 | 2006

DIY Network

Fine Living

Food Network

HGTV
Comparison Shop for Cosmetics and Bedroom Furniture at Shopzilla &