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Above, you can see the 18z NAM run for Tuesday evening. The storm is well to the north but a cold front gradually moving across and may trigger some thunderstorms. Right now I am going for a 20% chance.
We need rain. Areas just east of Kansas City have had enough rain in the past few weeks, Trenton, Sedalia, Warrensburg, but the Kansas City area is dry. And, getting drier. More on this in the coming days.
It is Sunday and I am working because Brett is finishing his vacation while Jamie had a day off. Ask me some questions and I will try to make a blog out of one of them later.
Posted by at April 9, 2006 5:11 PM
As much as I would like a good man sized F5 to chase, I do like this awesome weather we're having. It's time to really get that BBQ going!
We do need some rain though. :-)
I need to get a new BBQ. Mine isn't working.
Posted by: Jeff N at April 9, 2006 5:50 PM
Hey Gary does it look like we could see some rain on Easter weekend?
Just wondering. :) Hope your having a great day! Thanks for always updating the blog.
Rachel K. :)
We have to pay close attention to the weather pattern later this week. A transition is taking place, so even though I am leaving it dry we will have to see how it sets up next Sunday.
Posted by: Rachel K at April 9, 2006 5:55 PM
Is it me, or does it seem as though this year, the amplitude of the outbreak lows are well above normal? I guess I am use to seeing 998-992MB lows, but have seen atleast two this year sub 990. Normally when I see a 988 or so low, I am thinking tropics, and gearing up for a tropical storm! What are the factors that make lows strenghten?
THERE ARE MANY FACTORS THAT STRENGTHEN SURFACE LOWS, BUT IT ISN'T JUST A COINCIDENCE THAT MANY OF THESE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE SO DEEP. THE SAME THING HAPPENED IN JANUARY. IT IS JUST THE WAY THE STORM SYSTEMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. I WILL LOOK INTO THIS A BIT MORE LATER THIS WEEK.
Posted by: Scott at April 9, 2006 7:29 PM
Hey Gary how is stormy and windy doing? Do they like thunderstorms? My dog kind of does. :)
Have a great night!
Thanks for asking. Windy is now 16 1/2 years old and it isn't easy for her, but she can still see, hear, and get around. She really isn't in much pain at all, but her arthritis is tough on her. Stormy helps her a lot and she is doing great.
Monday morning Stormy and Mags, Jamie's dog, are going to the lake for a swim. So, we will post some pictures Monday evening.
Posted by: Rachel K at April 9, 2006 8:55 PM
I know its getting dry around here and we need rain bad. Does this summer look like its going to be hot & humid with no rainfall? or bad heat wave this summer? Just curious how summer going to be.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE SUMMER WILL BRING. LET'S HOPE IT RAINS A LOT IN MAY AND JUNE. IT WILL HELP A LOT.
Posted by: Jason at April 9, 2006 9:15 PM
With storm outbreaks, meteorologists talk about a dryline a lot. What exactly is this dryline? Why does it form and why does it play such a potent role in storm development?
A dry line is really just a trough of low pressure where the winds converge. West of the dry line you usually have southwest winds and it can get quite warm, but the air mass is extremely dry. East of the dry line you have south to southeast winds and the moisture is pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico. Along the dry line, where the winds converge, thunderstorms often form. Just like along a cold front or a warm front. With it being warmer near the dry line the atmosphere is capable of producing some very intense severe thunderstorms.
Posted by: Marlina at April 9, 2006 10:02 PM
I am wondering about frosty nights? Should we expect more? Can I put my house plants out and leave them there yet? This beautiful weather really has me itching to put the plants out and watch them bloom!
Hopefully this mornings GFS is wrong. If it is then a hard freeze could still occur within 10 days. But, confidence is still low.
Posted by: Jonna at April 10, 2006 11:47 AM
You know how pessimistic concerning a drought I have been since November, when the rains really cut off. I hope you all are right, and of course, it's such a long ways out, who can say for certain. Only thing I go on is that a drought, once established, appears to take a major incident (8 inches plus, a hurricane's remnants) to break, and I fear this will be the case now. Still, I can't be any more sure than anyone else.
YOU THINK WE ARE IN A DROUGHT EVERY YEAR.
Posted by: StormDog at April 10, 2006 12:29 PM
Question...thinking through the theory of what Gary defines as recurring cycles that seem to be repeating [Gary Recurring Cycle -GRC], is it possible that there would be a connection to the North Atlantic Oscillation? [NAO]. From what I surmise, there is a teleconnection element to the NAO that may have a piece to the GRC puzzle? I am not suggesting that the NAO replaces the GRC or definitively affects it, but wonder if there could be another piece of the puzzle that would define how each GRC phase materializes in relation to the NAO. It has been said that the GRC remains consistant into Summer, than redefines in Fall and cycles again until the following Summer, but its affect as it reappears may take on different outcomes due to other factors[seasonal changes/temp etc.]... I wonder if the snyc of the NAO data to the GRC events would yield a pattern of result pointing to the relationship of the past few months weather events? Maybe I am crazy, but it seems like there may be other factors that tie to the GRC that may help long term forecasting into likely scenerios.
THE NAO MAY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN, BUT I AM CONVINCED IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HOW THE "GRC" WORKS. I THINK I LIKE THE NAME, BUT LET'S WORK ON IT.
Posted by: Scott at April 10, 2006 12:47 PM
Maybe a glimpse of hope?
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SCOTT SO WE HAVE TO TRACK IT CLOSELY.
Posted by: Scott at April 10, 2006 3:13 PM
One last thought..following the cycle, are we due again about Mid May through early June? Should have plenty of heat/moisture then...Looks like it will be calmish for the next week or so...
YES, I AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME IDEAL SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS IN MAY AND JUNE. AND THE COLD PART OF THE PATTERN, OR THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE PART OF THE PATTERN SHOULD REPEAT THIS MONTH.
Posted by: Scott at April 10, 2006 4:37 PM
Have you done any testing or observed that your cycle theory holds true in other areas besides KC? For example, what about places like San Diego or Miami -- both have climates very different than here in KC.
MY THEORY IS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. SO, IT DOES WORK FOR MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE, DENVER, BUFFALO, ETC.
I WILL BLOG ABOUT IT TONIGHT.
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at April 11, 2006 7:50 AM
Gary, What is causing all of the strong winds. I've not seen it like this before
IT IS THE WINDY TIME OF YEAR AND WE JUST HAVE A LOT OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS. OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH EACH STORM THAT PASSES. SO IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY THIS WEEK AT TIMES.
Posted by: Nancy at April 11, 2006 10:58 AM
Gary, any predictions on a late frost? I've used these gorgeous weekends to do a lot of planting, wondering if I should go and buy plastic.
WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE IN I AM STILL EXPECTING A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IN A WEEK OR TWO. SO A FROST IS STILL LIKELY.
Posted by: Jo at April 11, 2006 1:14 PM
Hi Gary - most respectfully, in Blue Springs, out of the 5 plus years we have been here, I can only recall one that provided rainfall I would consider above normal - of course KCI might vary a lot from what we experienced, as it seemed often a lot of cells during those years would track through Leavenworth and north of the river, or south along and south of the US 50 corridor. I don't think I'm gonna convince you of this, but neither do I think I am totally incorrect. However, if you have totals for 01-05, it would be interesting to see those.
Here, for all of us who aren't meteorologists is one version for the definition for "drought" I found on the Internet: "Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. Although it has scores of definitions, it originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought should be considered relative to some long-term average condition of balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration (i.e., evaporation + transpiration) in a particular area, a condition often perceived as â€œnormalâ€?. It is also related to the timing (i.e., principal season of occurrence, delays in the start of the rainy season, occurrence of rains in relation to principal crop growth stages) and the effectiveness (i.e., rainfall intensity, number of rainfall events) of the rains. Other climatic factors such as high temperature, high wind, and low relative humidity are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate its severity."
WELL, WE ARE IN TROUBLE OF A DROUGHT, BUT I STILL THINK IT GETS WET IN MAY. I MAY BE WRONG, NO PUN INTENDED
Posted by: StormDog at April 11, 2006 2:48 PM
Does every lightning bolt strike the ground?
No... there are lots of lightning strikes within clouds... and even between clouds.
Posted by: Paul Goehausen at April 16, 2006 2:51 PM