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High risk seems LIKELY....10 PM Thursday
Above, is the latest NAM run showing one of the strongest 500 mb vort maxes I have ever seen. Timing is perfect and I just don't see how we avoid powerful thunderstorms Thursday evening. More in the morning, but the SPC will very likely have us in a high risk by morning.
Hopefully you will be watching our coverage. If this severe weather outbreak develops please call us with your reports. You can help us even after a thunderstorm has moved by. Our newsroom line is 816-932-4141. Just tell them you want to be on the air.
Posted by at April 5, 2006 9:51 PM
I know March 12th went down as a historic day for tornadoes but do you think that this storm has the potential to surpass March 12th. I plan on taking soil samples up here at Northwest Mo State. Do you think these storms will be generating closer to noon or closer to 6? I guess we will all see you tomorrow....
Kinley and Lindsey
KINLEY & LINDSEY:
It could be bad for some of us this afternoon. There is the potential for long-tracking, large tornadoes. The strongest storms should be in our area between 5 and 9pm.
Posted by: kinley at April 5, 2006 9:58 PM
As a 911 dispatcher and Volunteer Fire Fighter/Storm Spotter in NW Missouri, I get a great deal of valuable information from your blog as well as newscasts that allow me to help in preparation of impending severe weather. Thanks for providing this service.
We are so glad we can be of service! :)
Posted by: Mark at April 5, 2006 9:58 PM
Gary and Team -
I've been reading your competitor's blog as well. Looking at the same data yet different predictions. Is it merely a difference in philosphies after looking at the data? Just a bit confused. I understand it isn't cut and dry. Thanks!
We are not sure why other stations forcast the way they do... only they can answer that! We just tell you what we think... and we think it could be very stormy this afternoon/evening.
Posted by: hank at April 5, 2006 10:03 PM
How bad do you think it will get. I live in Excelsior Springs, but work in Olathe. Which, do you think, will have the better chance to severe weather or tornados...
It could be pretty ugly this afternoon. The severe weather threat is there for both cities. It might be a *little* more likely for Olathe, but not much.
Posted by: Matt at April 5, 2006 10:04 PM
We'll be spotting for you!
Be careful!! Let us know if you have anything to report!
Posted by: Jeff at April 5, 2006 10:10 PM
Thanks for the update, Gary.
We are going into a high risk.
Posted by: Ed at April 5, 2006 10:17 PM
Gary, quick question. Tonight watching the animation you had, it appeared that the dryline kinda stumbles out there in kansas. Do the dry lines actually do that? or do they barrel through? Should I leave my 05 mustang at home and take the wife's car tomorrow? Heavy posibility of large hail? (she'd kill me if she knew I asked this)
There is the potential for large hail today! Keep your cars covered if you can! (this is when I wish the station had a covered parking lot...)
Posted by: Dave C. at April 5, 2006 10:25 PM
Wow what a severe storm season this has been so far I'm kind of excited and scared about what could happen today it is 300am and I cant sleep I just read the latest spc outlook it still has us in moderate outbreak,they are thinking the big tornadic storms are going to split around this just wanted to have your input Gary on this.
SPC will update to a high risk at 8am.
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at April 6, 2006 3:07 AM
Looks like you were right, Gary. New Mesoscale Discussion this morning says they'll be upgrading the area to high risk in a couple hours. I'm very concerned about this potential outbreak... what do you think about the tornado potential for the KC metro? Seems like the higher probabilities for tornadoes will be up near the triple point in NE/IA.
It seems the highest tornado potential will be to the Northwest of the Metro. But we still have the potential here... we'll have to watch it!
Posted by: Mike at April 6, 2006 6:51 AM
Morning, looks like we're in for a rough day. I was reading the Convection Outlook on the SPC website and I keep seeing reference to a "triple point", I was wondering if you might be able to give a definition of what a "triple point" is. Thanks for the great work and information.
The triple point is the intersection point between three boundaries... a dryline, coldfront, and warm front. These features are all wound up into the surface low and this is the triple point. This is often where we see thunderstorms develop!
Posted by: Jeff at April 6, 2006 7:26 AM
I just saw the latest discussion on the SPC (mesoscale discussion) stating that they were going to elevate to a high-risk like you suggested above. It looks like the highest tornado risk is a just off to our NW. I also compared the latest 300mb and 500mb runs, which suggest we are in a pretty good area for a severe outbreak.
I am not a pro at reading these maps, but I love to see your comments and then read the maps, which helps me understand more about what is going on!!
Does it still look like a major outbreak?? What are the limiting factors, if any??
I just did a blog entry on that MCD... they will upgrade to a high risk at 8am. It does still look like a severe outbreak is likely... the limiting factor to tornado development would be a lack of good directional wind shear. But there is still the potential.
Posted by: Bruce Richardson at April 6, 2006 7:33 AM
I am so excited we may see some severe weather today, even though it will probably go right around me. It always seems to go down like that.(makes me mad!)So what does today look like compared to the 12th? Will this system be as bad as that one? I know you can't say for sure because things can change so quickly but what is your gut feeling about it? I will be watching you guys tonight. Keep up the good work. Oh by the way.. What kind of dog is Mags? Your dog is so cute. Thanks
If things materialize... we could have a major severe weather outbreak. Everyone wants to compare today to March 12th, but the set up is actually different... as each situation is unique. The *results* could be similar... with long-tracking, large tornadoes possible. But March 12th was an ALL DAY event... this will only affect us in the late afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to the blog and NBC Action News to see how things set up.
OH, Mags is a Lab! :)
Posted by: ryan at April 6, 2006 8:54 AM