KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: More Rain

Some of you got some much needed rainfall overnight and early this morning! Here is a picture sent to us by Brian Miner:

Brian took this last night around 11 o'clock. He was at the intersection of I-35 and Johnson Drive... looking to the North. Pretty cool shot!

This afternoon ended up really nice... with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s. Once again... this evening... things will change around here. Right now, we have ongoing showers to the North, up around Marysville, MO... while we are dry here in the Metro. Looking at our surface map... there is STILL a frontal boundary south of us:

Notice there is also a surface low in Western Kansas. So what will happen? Well, thunderstorms have developed near the surface low... and will likely form into an MCS and head our way. Ahead of these storms, lift over our area will also increase. So there is a pretty good chance of showers and thunderstorms for us tonight. I am thinking they will develop between 9pm and midnight. Some of us could see heavy rain... especially the southern half of the viewing area. Much like last night, the threat of hail will be there... last night most of the reports were about .75" hail... just under "Severe" criteria.

I have also continued the chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night... AND into Tuesday morning. This could be a good soaking event for us!

And finally, it is a very exciting day for us here in the forecast center! Our family just keeps getting bigger! Jeff Penner and his wife, Edi had a bouncing baby boy today! Here is a picture of proud papa Jeff... with little Skyler:

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Jamie - well, forecasters at the SPC seem to be a lot more gung-ho for severe weather, and their placement of the front just south of Cass County is interesting!

More of my notes added:

At 1815 CDT, the Weather Alert radio warbled its rather disconcerting song, as a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for somewhere in our forecast area. Checking the website, I noted that now Severe Thunderstorm Watches now also covered central into eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri, including Jackson County.
A MCD issued at 1712 showed a stationary front now draped from a low in southwestern Kansas into north-central Kansas and then east-southeastward to points just a county south of Jackson County. It was noted “WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN MO...APPEARS IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS NORTH OF A SLN-EMP-JLN LINE. PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...WHILE NOT CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT...MAY BE ENHANCED BYAPPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NWRN KS ATTM. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.

AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE ZONE OF FORCING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD FUEL INTENSE UPDRAFTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STORM INTERACTIONS LOCALLY REINFORCE HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENTS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND APPEAR POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED FROM ANY CELL TRACKING NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING.�?

The watch rationale stated that “…INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EWD INTO S CENTRAL KS WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG E/W BOUNDARY FROM W CENTRAL MO INTO NRN KS. WITH WARM SECTOR IN WATCH NOW VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH...STORM EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY…�? (Perhaps my pessimism was untoward???)

Let us hope!!!

Dog

DOG:
Good talking to you tonight... :)
Jamie