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Gary,
I saw some pretty good lightening and stuff in raytown this weekend but not really a whole bunch of rain. I mean we got some but nothing considerable. So tonight looks pretty good for some rain?? I hope so. My garden needs some rain. Just out of curiosity, howcome Jeff Penner and Bret Anthony never write in the blog?? I think I have seen 1 entry from Jeff. Tell Jeff he has a beautiful baby. Is this their first? Thanks
Ryan

RYAN,

JEFF DOES BLOG ONCE IN A WHILE, AND BRETT HAS DONE A BLOG ENTRY OR TWO. HIS SCHEDULE IN THE MORNING IS SO HECTIC HE JUST NEVER GETS TO IT, AND THEN HE SEE'S THAT I BLOGGED ALREADY AND THIS IS PROBABLY WHY HE DOESN'T DO IT.

GARY

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Gary,

If the system evolves into an MCS later this evening, does that mean the chance of severe storms will diminish with this change as it did last night? I am a true novice when it comes to following weather patterns, but I have a keen interest in this science and would love to learn more!

Thanks for all you do,

Will

WILL,

THE LATEST DATA IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING MCS AND NOT THAT SEVERE. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.

GARY

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I love visiting your weather blog. I am a high school teacher and this year we started offering a class on meteorology. I have learned so many things on this web page that I pass on to my students. The topics are great.

I know you guys visit elementary schools all the time. If anybody over there is interested in visiting a high school meteorology class, I'd love to have you out.

Keep up the good work!

ROD,

WE DO COME TO HIGH SCHOOL CLASSES. MY SCHEDULE IS BOOKED FOR THIS SPRING. BRETT, JAMIE, OR JEFF MAY BE AVAILABLE, OR YOU CAN REQUEST ME NEXT FALL.

CONTACT SHERIE SMALL, small@nbcactionnews.com, she is our publicity coordinator.

GARY

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Hi Gary - well, my house did not receive more than .20" (.48 total so far) - certainly nothing to alleviate the drought- went all around us, and quite close to us - read my comments - there is something rather pithy at the end of them:

By 2207, I heard a few rolls of anvil thunder, but having stepped outside for a few seconds, had yet to see any lightning.

At 2223 CDT, a crash of thunder drew me to the door, and light rain had begun to fall – meanwhile the Leavenworth cell had produced golf-ball-sized hail.

2330 CDT saw the lightning intense all around us, but only the merest of falls of rain – go figure – could it be we are being duffilled again??? AGAIN??? Well, this is Blue Springs after all, the dry-hole of this year and several others that I could mention. I felt quite disgusted, to say the least. .20 only fell here – big friggin deal.

Monday April 24, 2006

Cloudy and cool but no rain – NWS has this forecast – “Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Partly cloudy, with a high around 76. East wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Occasional rain and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low around 48. East northeast wind between 6 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.�

I wondered what was in their eggs – apparently with a front in the area, and sun expected to return to destabilize the air-mass, something could form. However, with a light, almost imperceptible rain falling at 1100 CDT, I had grave reservations as to that one to two inch prediction – instabilities could not be a big deal, so what would produce over one inch of rain? Lift from the system? What?

Total in the storm so far for my house at Blue Springs, a desultory .48 inches – drought is still at our residence, at least. It was amazing, upon reflection to see lightning all quadrants around us last night, but missing out on some generous rains – so close yet so far – like being a gelding in a geisha house.

A not-so-impressed Dog
PS (I think the chances for severe weather are dwindling as at 1100, remnant clouds from last nights MCS are hanging tough, and temperatures are only 60F. If the pattern hangs tough as it has, the cold-front possibly won't produce what the models say it will, but time will tell.)

STORM DOG,

I HAVE HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN AT MY HOUSE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS DWINDLING, BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WET MCS TONIGHT.

GARY

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Gary,
Sorry but I had one more question for you. Is the rain that we are getting this morning goin to decrease the chance of severe weather later on this afternoon and this evening? Doesn't it help stabablize the atmosphere or something resulting in less of a chance for severe weather unless the sun comes out for a while or something?
thanks
ryan

RYAN,

WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THE ATOMOSPHERE RECOVERS. THE RAIN IS NOW ENDING SO WE HAVE TIME.

GARY

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Hi Gary,

It did it last night! It actually stormed in Olathe!!!! (But, you already knew that). Anyway selfish me wants some thunderstorms again tonight, but I don't think they will form due to the cool temps. Am I correct?

Mary

MARY,

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AS THE WARM AIR IS FORCED NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHING SO RIGHT AROUND SUNSET I AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EVEN THOUGH IT IS A BIT COOLER.

GARY

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I am starting to feel like Dog. In Lee's Summit, very little rain. .25. Rain rain everywhere, not a drop to find in our neck of the woods.

Side note...I know the Tong split does not exist, and thought of the earlier blog entry addressing that..but had to laugh last night while watching the nasty cell exiting the Lawrence area actually split near Tong into two cells one moving ENE and the other racing SE to join another complex. I had to laugh out loud when I saw that. Also I was a bit baffled to see the radar with the storm tracks of the different cells invariably, all heading different directions. Quite odd, but yet again...no fun this time either..and worse..little rain for us in the LS/BS areas. Not holding my breath for the next round...I have no doubt it will fall apart as it nears..even this mornings chances dwindled as the complex signifcantly dimished before hitting the metro.

SCOTT,

IT IS SAD THAT YOU MISSED THE HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. WE HAVE ONE MORE CHANCE TONIGHT. MY HOUSE HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN, AND YES I FEEL LUCKY.

GARY

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Happy Birthday, Gary. Thank you for wishing for rain.

TERESA,

THANK YOU VERY MUCH. IT IS AMAZING HOW NO ONE I WORK WITH EVEN KNOW IT IS MY BIRTHDAY.

GARY

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Gary,
Where is the surface low that you expected to develop over Kansas? Is the threat of severe weather diminishing? I noticed the SPC has put out a MD for our area.
Thanks,

David

DAVID,

THE SURFACE LOW IS IN OKLAHOMA AND EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK REFLECTION OF A LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF US BY MIDNIGHT, IT ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA.

GARY

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I want to know when is the rain going to be in Liberty?

STORMY,

IT SHOULD RAIN IN LIBERTY BY 9 PM. OR SOMETHING IS GOING WRONG WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT FOR US.

GARY

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Hi Gary et al - my latest comments on this "event":

At 1600, the NWS still carried an 80% chance of storms, some severe with now only ¾ to 1 inch probable – much drier than this morning’s forecast. How we could see severe here with conditions still cloudy and the temperature struggling to reach 72 F was beyond me, but I checked the discussion, as useful as it always was - MCS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS HAS HELD THE WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS REALLY LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS HELPED SPEED UP THE RECOVERING AIRMASS IN
THAT AREA. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THAT COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD… PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE WELL OVER AN INCH SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.� But…NOT over our place at Blue Springs, I thought, with no small degree of sarcasm and depressed acceptance. Anyway, it looked and smelled like another near miss to our south, of that I was fairly sure, at the same time wishing my gut instincts would prove me wrong over our house, for once. Such is the luck of the Dog.

No sooner had I typed this than I noticed a MCD covering, of all places, north-central into northeastern and eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri, specifically the Kansas City area! This information advised that “SEVERE POTENTIAL /WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL/ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN
KS...AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/WESTERN MO...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BOTH IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM WEST CENTRAL KS INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA...BUT ALSO WITH WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN KS VIA EARLY DAY CONVECTION. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE CONVECTION APPEARS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ACCORDINGLY...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARDOF LARGE HAIL. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS PORTRAY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE/STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.� We’d see, I told myself, still a skeptic as to our house’s chances of receiving a lot of anything at all, but there was a piece of my twisted psyche that hoped my negativity would prove a falsehood.

There was, by the way, a Moderate Risk for severe storms forecast for south-central Kansas and central and western Oklahoma. (We were in a Slight Risk.)

SIGH,
Dog

STORM DOG,

WE WILL TEST BLUE SPRINGS AGAIN TONIGHT. LET'S SEE IF YOU GET A GOOD SOAKING, OR IF IT GOES JUST SOUTH OF YOU.

GARY

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I vote for South, or somehow the LS/BS dome will stop the rain! I am not a believer...I want to be..but been missed too many times!