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Severe weather outbreak to our east
Good morning. The RUC model just came out and is consistent with last nights data. And, as a result we miss most of the excitement. Those of you east of a Maryville to Warrensburg line must pay close attention as this is the most likely spot for thunderstorm development. Columbia, MO is the bullseye this afternoon, just northeast of the surface low. Below you can see the 12 hour RUC surface. The low is east of Kansas City at 7 PM (00z). We have enough of a cap to prevent thunderstorms from developing until around 6 or 7 PM. This takes the Kansas City area out of the threat. We still must monitor the situation closely, but central and eastern Missouri will be the most likely area to be hit by today's significant severe weather potential.

Click to enlarge (valid 7 PM tonight showing surface low east of Kansas City with developing thunderstorms about 40 miles east of the state line. The biggest threat will be another 40 to 60 miles east of the developing area, or 100 miles east of Kansas City after 7 PM)
Posted by at April 18, 2006 8:55 AM
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Gary,
Thanks for the great Blog that your team keeps up to date with the current weather. It's a shame that were going to miss out again. I live in southern Johnson county KS and we really need the rain in our area. I listened to you today on 106.5 and agree that if severe weather is in the area and tornados are possible you should be on the air informing the public, even if that means that someone some where will be missing one of their favorite TV shows.
Keep up the great work that you and your team does for all of us.
BRYAN,
THANKS FOR THE SUPPORTING COMMENTS. NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING AND AMAZING IF WE DON'T GET ANY RAIN. I WILL BLOG ABOUT THE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
GARY
Posted by: Bryan at April 18, 2006 9:38 AM
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Will it be windy on Thursday? I want to play golf but the wind doesn't help my already poor game. This time of year, if it is warm enough to play it is usually very windy. Why is that?
Derek
DEREK,
IT LOOKS BREEZY, BUT NOT RIDICULOUS ON THURSDAY.
GARY
Posted by: Derek at April 18, 2006 9:39 AM
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AHHHH!!! this is driving me crazy... why is everything missing us?? is this the way it's going to be all season? so, there is basicly NO chance we will get any rain or thunderstorms this afternoon of evening right? i'm about to move man. somewhere that i can see more storms. anyway, i know its not your fault.. it's just frustrating. thanks
RYAN,
THE MOST FRUSTRATING PART IS THAT OKLAHOMA MAY GET WIDESPREAD RAIN ON THURSDAY. WE WILL MISS THAT TOO.
GARY
Posted by: ryan at April 18, 2006 10:02 AM
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For Easter this year, my family and I went to visit my in-laws. They happen to live just on the Illinois side of the Mississippi River across from Muscatine Iowa. We got there Thursday about an hour ahead of a very explosive severe weather/tornado event. This was the same complex that dropped a F2 tornado in the heart of Iowa City. It also dropped two F1's about 15 minutes south of my in-laws' place. The radar the local guys were using was nowhere near as good as the ESP system you are using now--with one exception. Their system showed "shear markers"--areas of rotation near the surface possibly indicative of tornado or vortex signatures. Does ESP allow you to show this and if not, are you able to upgrade the system to show this? I thought this was incredibly useful information to have to monitor the movement of such a dangerous situation.
MIKE,
ESP DOES MORE THAN SHOW THE SHEAR MARKERS. WATCH CAREFULLY, IT DOES SO MUCH MORE. WE ARE ALMOST COMPLETE WITH OUR SET UP.
GARY
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at April 18, 2006 10:21 AM
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Gary - More of the same, which I figured last night - more cap, increasing drought. I say we just forget the rest of Spring, move immediately in deep summer so my ground can really crack, the grass will not grow, and I won't have to mow. This Spring is turning out, for Blue Springs, to be every bit as dry as Jan-Feb, and for that matter March was. Oh yeah we had tornadoes, but rain? My dog Parker could mark his spots harder than that. I think I will just ignore the weather - why not? Blue Springs is always totally safe. YAWN,
YAWN, YAWN.
Very, very disgusted and fed-up Dog
STORM DOGGY,
REMEMBER I TOLD YOU WE WILL REALLY BE TESTING THE DROUGHT BEFORE THE END OF THIS MONTH.
THE NEXT CHANCE WILL MISS US AS OKLAHOMA HAS A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY. BUT NEXT WEEK THERE IS HOPE.
GARY
Posted by: StormDog at April 18, 2006 10:27 AM
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Gary:
As always - the weather team did a great job Saturday night. My wife and I really enjoy watching you guys. She says all of you on the team exhibit a decent, honest and wholesome personality. What I enjoy most is that you conduct yourselves professionally and yet display a great enthusiasm. You are definitely professionals at what you do. You speak directly and calmly, and though some of the language and terms you use may be advanced or meteorologically-based, it only contributes to our trust in your competency. (I enjoy it) Other stations act and speak hysterically at even the slightest risk, while some can be a little pretentious. When severe weather hits – you are who I turn to.
Saturday night you spoke briefly on the typical severe weather season (particularly tornadoes) in the Metro; you stated that it is most active from April thru June. But then you said something about it quieting down a little early this year – possibly in early May. Is this accurate or did I misunderstand you? I don’t wish bad fortune on anyone, but I sure enjoy the excitement of tornadic thunderstorms here in the Great Plains! How do the next few weeks look?
Marcus
MARCUS,
FIRST OF ALL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE KIND COMMENTS.
NOW, I LIKELY TALKED ABOUT A BREAK FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS DURING THE LATTER PART OF APRIL, BUT ONLY A BREAK. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO CYCLE SO WE ARE IN FOR A RATHER LONG AND ACTIVE SPRING SEASON.
GARY
Posted by: Marcus at April 18, 2006 12:01 PM
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I guess I have mixed feelings about this season and today. I enjoy the storms, and probably spend too much time watching all the parameters and forecasting to my wife and 2yr old child, but also am glad that the storms have missed. Its a delicate balance much like I felt last year watching Katrina move in. From a science perspective, it was one of the most beautiful things I had seen. From a human side, obviously, I was terrified. I am most happy I think with storms close enough to chase, but far enough away not to cause immediate distress. I am beginning to think it will never rain however. Sigh.
SCOTT,
EASTERN MISSOURI WILL GET IT TONIGHT.
GARY
Posted by: Scott at April 18, 2006 12:26 PM
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I live in Linn Co Mo, we haven't had ANY severe weather yet this season. All of the storms so far have died out before or right as they have gotten to us. Do you think we are going to get some action out of this storm system today? Or will it skip us again?
K,
NOTHING TODAY!
GARY
Posted by: K at April 18, 2006 12:32 PM
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Ok I'm going to sound very naive next to all of you who blog here but bear with me. I'm trying to learn. Can anyone explain to me why the weather seems so different here in Johnson County than up in Wyandotte where I work, only 12 miles from my house? I grew up in Arizona and moved here from Palm Springs. When I lived in those places there was never weather. Now of course CA is sliding away in the rain and Phoenix has had funnel clouds, alot of micro bursts, and wind bad enough that my folks lost their roof 4 years ago, and trees snapping in half in Surprise a few days ago. (Severe weather is not allowed there during the Royals spring training across the street).
Whenever severe weather is predicted the sun is out here and meanwhile in KCK we are getting hailed on, trees snapping and funnel clouds are always spotted at the Speedway. I just cannot always be scheduled to work during these outbreaks. I know this sounds awful, and I don't want my house to blow away, but gosh everything goes south of Gardner or north of Shawnee. I have even driven home in blinding rain and once I got past SM Pkwy on 435 it's only drizzling and Lenexa is dry.
JERI,
IT IS JUST AS STORMY IN WYANDOTTE COUNTY AS IT IS IN JOHNSON COUNTY. NO MATTER WHERE YOU LIVE IT WILL SEEM LIKE SOMEONE ELSE IS GETTING HIT MORE OFTEN, BUT OVER A PERIOD OF A YEAR OR TWO EVERYTHING USUALLY EVENS OUT. I AM 100% CONFIDENT IN THIS.
GARY
Posted by: Jeri at April 18, 2006 12:39 PM
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Hi Gary!!! MY BET IS ON THE DROUGHT, sorry to say...you did tell me that, and with your theory well in play, the dryness we have had since November will most likely not go away - perhaps one or two <.75" rainfalls, but that will not alleviate the drought conditions, especially as temps increase. We would need inches - 6 at least - to really turn the tide (pun not intended). So, that is the reason I think the drought is here to stay, and depending on May, will intensify.
On the other hand, perhaps your predicted weather cycle will dissolve sooner than July, and June may turn absolutely wet, wet, wet...it is a chance, but a very slim chance. Remember my saying (re moving to dry places I thought would get a good deal of storms): "IT CAN ONLY HAPPEN TO THE DOG!!!)
Have a great day - I know Blue Springs will be dry so our BBQ tonite won't go amiss.
Cheers and keep up the good work, even during the rest of this (for us in B.S.)boring, tedious weather. Dog is gonna exercise and then sleep all afternoon, with the knowledge he will have a tranquil P.M.
Say hi to the doglets for me,
Cheers,
Dog
STORMIER DOGGY,
YOU MAY BE RIGHT, WE'LL SEE. I HOPE NOT.
GARY
Posted by: StormDog at April 18, 2006 12:48 PM
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I woke up this morning asking which scenario will play out: The storms that form way out west and hammer Manhattan, KS? The storms that move across the area north of I-70? The storms that move across the SE side of the area. But now it looks like we get the storms that miss all of us. Just think- in May or June the issue will be nightly MCS events and flooding rains. SB
SB,
IT LOOKED LIKELY ALL ALONG THAT WE WOULD GET MISSED. SAD!
GARY
Posted by: Sea Bass at April 18, 2006 12:50 PM
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Any chance at all that this may slow up a little and put us back at a little higher risk? This really is getting frustrating. As hard hit as the north part of the metro has been hit the last several years, I've got to believe that the southern portions of the metro will see their turn sometime soon.
ROD,
IT IS STAYING DRY.
GARY
Posted by: Rod at April 18, 2006 12:53 PM
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First of all, great job by the entire team.
Secondly, when is the real "storm" season around here? This is only my second spring in this part of the country.
MATT,
MAY AND JUNE IS OUR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. IT USUALLY SHUTS DOWN AROUND JUNE 20TH.
GARY
Posted by: Matt at April 18, 2006 1:22 PM
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You guys are by far the best at what you do.
You dont overblow or hype the situation and have the best tools and equip. hands down.
I listened to you talk about the complaints on the radio when some people dont get to watch their shows. It is your duty to inform your entire viewing area when something like a tornado is possible. We appreciate all your guys hard work and time you have put in this year.
The best part is the blog!!! You and Jamie keep it so up to date and active, it is the place to check for breaking weather news or just the "dog" days of summer.
I love seeing the pet pics... Lets hope we can squeeze a few more years out of Windy. Seems like only yesterday when you moved to town with that wonderful bundle of fur... err, not anymore, she is shaved!!! :P
JOE,
THANKS FOR THE NICE COMMENTS. WINDY IS STILL LOVING HER LIFE!
GARY
Posted by: joe at April 18, 2006 1:28 PM
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It's almost 3PM so the low should be overhead with the cold front not far behind. Are we pretty much at a 0% chance now for anything?
YES!
Posted by: Justin at April 18, 2006 2:52 PM
Gary- This appears to be that EVENT where storms mature just to our Southeast and where decisions have to be made on programming and WHAT IS AND ISN'T IMPORTANT FOR OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. I'm not a professional, but it appears a line will develop shortly from St. Joe through Manhattan or Topeka and quickly blow through our area with those south and east of I-70 seeing the best chance for rain and storms.
Good Luck, Gary
Gary B.
GARY,
IT IS ALL EAST!
GARY
Posted by: Gary B. at April 18, 2006 2:59 PM
Gary - good call this morning in your blog - it is official - only a 30% pop now - Tornado Watch to our east, and a 7 day stretch of dry non-descript weather.
Where, in your opinion, just for grins, would you move to to see more weather rain and stormwise? Tennessee? Indiana? Kentucky? If I got filthy rich (which by the way on our stocks looks much less rosy than previously hyped), which I am not, I would sell up, retire and move elsewhere, alleviating the frustration I think we all feel about KCs lack of consistent storm production.
Also, have you noticed that a 30% chance up here is equivalent to a 20% chance in Oklahoma - slim to none? Why is that???
Dog
DOGLET,
No matter where you move you will think that you brought the drought with you. You always think that you get nothing. For others reading this, Storm Dog received over 6 inches of rain last year in one night and the next day he said that it didn't count for anything since it happened so fast.
I would stay right here. Doggy, we can't have another pattern as bad as this one next year. We are due!
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at April 18, 2006 4:02 PM
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Hey Gary, I was watchin your weather forcast last night, and liked the shot from the tower cam. When it showed downtown and a supercell in the background with a wall cound. Is there anywhere i could find that on the net? thanks
Mike Smith
Mike,
I must get a picture of it, and if I do I will post it.
Gary
Posted by: Mike Smith at April 18, 2006 4:13 PM
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Oh yea i also really enjoyed your coverage of the storms saturday night. I live in the northland and was watching the weather team at my cousins house. Then his dish gets blown over, no more tv. We went for his radio, but it didnt get any reception. We knew it was getting bad, so with no tv, radio, weather radio, we couldnt decide to take cover or not. Luckily we could hear the Tornado Sirens inside, so we took cover. Everything was fine, but if we did not hear the sirens and a tornado was on the ground... who knows. Yet another reason to get a Weather radio with batteries, and a tv anntena..... i made sure he got both yesterday.:)
Posted by: Mike Smith at April 18, 2006 4:26 PM
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Gary,
Are we under a large, persistent high that continues to cap us? If so do you see this situation changing in the near future or just growing in intensity as the summer progresses?
RAY,
THIS IS THE PROBLEM.....WE ARE NOT UNDER A PERSISTENT HIGH. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SO COMPLEX, AND I STILL BELIEVE WE WILL START GETTING SOME RAIN SOON.
GARY
Posted by: Ray at April 18, 2006 4:37 PM
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Just curious..in looking at the surface map and the forecast..is that low in SD ever going to move or leave???? It seems to be in the NAM and GFS FOREVER!!!!
SCOTT,
IT WILL BE A CUT OFF LOW.....WEATHER PERSONS WOE! IT SHOULD TAKE FOUR DAYS FOR IT TO MOVE ON AND THEN WE CAN THINK ABOUT A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SADDEST THING IS THAT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS MAY GET SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN OUT OF THIS PART OF THE PATTERN.
GARY
Posted by: Scott at April 18, 2006 5:10 PM
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The Day 6 map from HPC looks interesting, perhaps an overrunning rain setup for Monday or Tuesday? We sure could use a good, old-fashioned soak.
When I was a child growing up in Iowa, I remember walking home in the rain a lot in the early spring, cold, soaking rains, sometimes with a bit of thunder. Then in May we'd start to get real t-storms and such. It seems to me that these "April showers" don't really happen the way they used to. Just one person's perceptions of course.
JOHN,
CERTAINLY NOT THIS YEAR.
GARY
Posted by: John at April 18, 2006 5:10 PM
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Hey I was just wondering how far east of Appleton will the storms develop. Thanks
DANIEL,
I AM A BIT LATE, BUT THEY FORMED EAST OF YOU.
GARY
Posted by: Daniel at April 18, 2006 5:52 PM
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The tornado in Chillicothe moving east? I am in Kirksville and wanted to know if it is coming towards me or if it is just heading east along US 36? Thanks Gary!!
Jen
JEN,
THEY ARE HEADING YOUR WAY, BUT HOPEFULLY IT WILL JUST RAIN.
GARY
Posted by: Jennifer at April 18, 2006 7:46 PM
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I go to school up here at Northwest MO state and we just missed the beginning of what promises to be a stormy night for portions of NW Missouri. I hope around the KC metro area can get some significant rain sometime soon.
KINLEY,
MAYBE NEXT WEEK. THANKS!
GARY
Posted by: kinley at April 18, 2006 7:59 PM
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Why are we having so much windy weather? It seems like more days in the week than not we are getting strong winds.
Thanks for all of the long hours you and your team have been putting in to keep everyone safe.
SANDY:
It has been windy just because of the weather pattern we are in. Strong storm systems move by quickly... that has left us pretty gusty!
Jamie
Posted by: Sandy at April 18, 2006 9:20 PM
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I am liking the GFS Monday-Thurs next week..looks like some rain for each day possible. I will be interested in the vorts when we get closer...looks rather stormy.
Posted by: Scott at April 19, 2006 12:15 AM
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This is kinda scary - we have really yet begun for what is the typical severe season. We may break the record!
SCOTT:
That is a great graph. I don't know why it's not showing up... maybe I will put it in a blog!
Jamie
Posted by: Scott at April 19, 2006 10:09 AM
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