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Spring Surprise Factor
Good late evening everyone,
The SSF or what I call the Spring Surprise Factor may be coming into play for the first time in years. Below is the new GFS 500 mb forecast for Saturday. I showed this possibility on the 10 PM newscast tonight and if this trend continues we will have some widespread rain this weekend. But, we need the upper low to form west of Topeka and we will be having some fun. The second map shows the forecast precipitation for this weekend. It is all fantasy if the upper low doesn't form west of us. So, remember for those of you who think I am bringing you false hope and hyping this up, confidence is very low. It just will be interesting to see how it evolves. The Canadian model came in tonight and has the upper low forming over Iowa. If that happens then we get a few showers and that is all. It is amazing how just a slightly further west solution will make us happy, and yet slightly further east and we are left frustrated again. I know what Storm Dog thinks will happen.
Have a great night! Be sure to watch our weathercasts this week and BREEZY makes her DEBUT on the 5 PM newscast Wednesday.
Click to enlarge (valid Saturday morning showing Kansas upper low formation)
Click to enlarge (60 hour total precipitation forecast by Sunday night)
Posted by at April 25, 2006 11:33 PM
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Bring on the rain!!!!
KINLEY,
I AM WITH YOU. LET'S HOPE IT ISN'T JUST FANTASY. WE SHOULD KNOW BY LATER TODAY IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
GARY
Posted by: kinley at April 26, 2006 12:01 AM
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I'm sorry... I must of missed something. What is the Spring Surprise Factor?
HANK,
THE "SPRING SURPRISE FACTOR" IS SOMETHING I CAME UP WITH ABOUT 25 YEARS AGO WHILE I WAS GOING TO THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A SITUATION IN APRIL WHERE A SLIGHT SHIFT OF A STORM SYSTEM COMPLETELY CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM DRY AND NICE TO EXTREMELY STORMY. I CALLED IT THE SPRING SURPRISE FACTOR AS IT WAS SORT OF AN EXCITING SURPISE.
THIS IS WHAT MAY BE HAPPENING IN THE CHANGES IN THIS WEEKENDS FORECAST.
GARY
Posted by: hank at April 26, 2006 8:08 AM
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I will be watching carefully..using the full compliment of tools..that being the case, I will be woefully off on my guess, it will go north, and I will end up with another .13 of rain. LOL
SCOTT,
O.K. YOU ARE DOWN WITH A 0.13" PREDICTION FOR THIS NEXT STORM. SO, IF YOU GET .50" YOU WILL BE HAPPY, AND IF YOU GET OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN YOU WILL JUST BE IN HEAVEN. WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU GET MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN?
GARY
Posted by: Scott at April 26, 2006 9:11 AM
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As dry as the ground is...with 2 inches of rain...I will be----drumroll please----
DROWNING! LOL.
Let me start gathering up pairs of animals now!
SCOTT,
YOU BETTER START GATHERING. IT IS HAPPENING. BE SURE TO WATCH THE NEWSCASTS AND I WILL TRY TO BLOG LATER.
GARY
Posted by: Scott at April 26, 2006 1:19 PM
Tell Dog he doesn't have to be rich. He can go visit my folks in Surprise, Az. They have all rock, as most people do in their yards, and one tiny patch of grass in case I ever move back with Ginger the dog. He can go in August and get the 112 degree "dry" heat and catch a cool dust storm rolling in, then he can watch it flood in Sept. with the monsoons, and if they are going to have funnel clouds it will be around December. The only funnel cloud I've ever seen was in Phx years and years ago and it went right back into the cloud before touching down.
JERI,
HE COULD LEAVE ON THURSDAY, THEN BLUE SPRINGS WOULD GET 5 INCHES OF RAIN AND THEN HE WOULD THINK IT IS HIM.
GARY
Posted by: Jeri at April 26, 2006 2:40 PM
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Ok this is what I got out of this spring surprise. A shift in the storm system and the forecast changes? Are you saying that it is going to be a stormier weather pattern? How many more severe weather events do you think we are looking at right now to the end of severe weather season? Do you see any severe weather events soon?
JOHN,
THE SPRING SURPRISE FACTOR ONLY APPLIES TO THIS ONE STORM. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING LIKE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE 3 DAYS OF RAIN. THIS IS THE SURPRISE, BUT IT IS NO LONGER A SURPRISE.
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON WILL STILL BE ACTIVE. BE PATIENT.
GARY
Posted by: John Moon III at April 26, 2006 3:17 PM
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Gary, you do a great job! I don't suppose the rain could hold off until Friday PM? We are having a garage sale! Welcome to your new little puppy!
KATHY,
I AM NOT SURE ON THE TIMING AT THIS MOMENT, BUT IT LOOKS WET.
GARY
Posted by: Kathy Kusek at April 26, 2006 3:32 PM
Gary, I have a tech question. Looking at the below link for the GFS, look at the 72 hr frame. Do I detect negative vorticity? [in blue] This is the first I have seen this year or actually ever looking at this model. It is near the Ok border next to the strong strong positive vorticity just to the west. I understand how this may bring all the rain, but explain how that negative vorticity is caused, and what effect it may cause, and why I haven't seen it before...
Thanks.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006042612&field=500mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
SCOTT,
PVA STANDS FOR POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. IF VORTICITY IS INCREASING AT A LOCATION THEN YOU ARE HAVING PVA AND THE LAYER OF AIR WILL TRY TO BE LIFTED. NVA IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE, NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION.
ANYWAY, WE MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SHOW THIS SOON AS THIS STORM WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT OF WAVES (VORT MAXES, WHERE THE VORTICITY REACHES THE MAXIMUM). IF A VORT MAX IS APPROACHING YOU THEN YOU ARE IN PVA, IF ONE IS LEAVING THEN YOU ARE IN NVA.
GARY
Posted by: Scott at April 26, 2006 4:19 PM
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Gary Gary Gary! Don't do this to me! I am getting excited about the chance of 3 days of rain! Even though we didn't get huge amounts of rain last weekend, the fact we had thunder and lightning 3 nights in a row was awesome..
DAVE,
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR A DELUGE OF RAIN. THE TREND CONTINUES, SO LET'S SEE HOW WE FEEL TOMORROW.
GARY
Posted by: Dave C at April 26, 2006 4:37 PM
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