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Wow I sure hope we get all that rain that would be sweet! :) Have a great night!

Rachel K.

RACHEL,

WE ARE SO OVERDUE!

GARY

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The NAM above is a two and a half day [60hr] total, right? So its possible that we will get one big burst, and that is all...or conversely...several small storms totaling the above 3-4 inch projection. Based on this year, I vote for the former..but remain the Eyore on the total..I think some areas will get close to that..but I am betting .5-1 inch in LS...we shall see.

SCOTT,

IF THIS STORM SETS UP THE WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL THEN WE WILL HAVE ABOUT FOUR ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN. NOT ONE BIG BURST AS IS USUAL. BUT AS I SAID LET'S SEE WHAT THE NEW DATA SHOWS.

THE NAM IS JUST COMING OUT AND IT IS DOING IT. THE NGM IS DOING IT.

GARY

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Maybe this would FINALLY make storm dog happy! =)

HAPPY PENGUIN,

I HOPE SO. BUT LAST YEAR HE EXPERIENCED 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE NIGHT AND HE COMPLAINED THE NEXT DAY SAYING IT SHOULDN'T COUNT IN HIS RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE YEAR.

GARY

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Do you think that flooding may be a concern? How much rain do you think will fall starting Friday and ending Monday?
How old is Breezy?
Have a great night

BEN,

BREEZY IS 4 MONTHS OLD. AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN. BUT LET'S SEE IF IT REALLY SETS UP FIRST.

I ALWAYS SAY FROM DROUGHT TO DELUGE!

GARY

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Am I reading that map correctly -- possibly 4 to 5 inches of rain?!

TIM,

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. BUT IF IT SETS UP RIGHT THEN 8 OR 9 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL WITH THIS SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR US. SO REALLY IT IS ANYWHERE FROM 2 INCHES TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE.

GARY

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Will the possible frost tonight be bad enough that I should bring my seedlings in?

MISSIE,

IT COULD DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

GARY

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Hi Gary. Saw your puppy this evening at 6. I guess not everybody gets to take their pet to work... much less clean up one of their messes! Takes time I suppose to train her right.

Does the predicted warm weather south you speak of correlate with the chance of severe weather in this case? Or will there be a good chance either way?

HANK,

YES, I AM LUCKY THAT I CAN TAKE MY DOGS TO WORK. BUT, BREEZY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SHE IS POTTY TRAINED FOR HER TO COME BACK. WE HAVE AN IMAGE TO UPHOLD. STORMY HASN'T ONCE GONE IN THE STUDIO. AND WINDY NEVER WENT UNTIL SHE TURNED 15 AND THIS IS WHY I LEAVE HER AT HOME.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER BUT WE HAVE TO SEE HOW IT SETS UP.

GARY

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gary, currious if you can settle a debate we've been having.. what is the end of a drought.. i say having 3 out of 4 months in a peroid with above normal rainfall ends a drought, my friends say, that just getting a "bunch" of rain ends it.. what are your thoughts on who's right?

GLEN,

WE HAD A RATHER SEVERE DROUGHT GOING ON THREE YEARS AGO, BUT REMEMBER THAT ONE AUGUST DAY WHERE WE HAD 8 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE AREA. THAT ONE DAY PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE DROUGHT. BUT, IT THEN NEEDS TO RAIN AGAIN SOON AFTER WHICH IT STARTED DOING.

THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND ADDED TO THE RAINFALL WE JUST HAD WILL END THIS DROUGHT, IN MY OPPINION. YOU DIDN'T GET MUCH RAIN OUT OF THIS LAST ONE, BUT YOU HAVE BEEN GETTING AT LEAST AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS YEAR, SO YOUR DRY CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE OVER IF THIS STORM MATERIALIZES.

GARY

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Wow - I hate to get my hopes up again, but all that rain would be awesome! The man who mows my lawn will love all the extra income, too.

BOBBI,

I THINK IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. . .

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Gary et al:

We shall have to wait and see what happens, won't we? Perhaps the models are right, perhaps not. Time will tell.

Dog

STORM DOGGGGGY,

HERE YOU GO AGAIN. THIS IS LIKELY! I AM GOING 99% TONIGHT.

GARY

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Gary,
Just wanted to tell you that it was really all mist yesterday that added up to a tenth of an inch. It never rained at all. Just a heavy mist for eight hours. 2-3 inches of rain this weekend would be very nice!

David

DAVID,

I STILL THINK YOU HAD A FEW STEADY RAIN SHOWERS INCLUDED IN THAT 1/10TH OF AN INCH. ON MY WAY HOME IT RAINED PRETTY HARD SO ONE OR TWO OF THOSE MAY HAVE COME ACROSS YOUR RAIN GAUGE. I AM CONVINCED THAT IT DID.

GARY

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Gary,

I saw your forecast, and I will beleive it when I see it. For one thing, the NWS is only forecasting 60% POP. ONE CHANNEL said 40% on Friday and like 70% on Saturday. NWS only has 40% on Sunday. Your forecast seems to be the only one with about 90%. :-) It just seems like KC has a shield around it. Every time a major storm is forecast, nothing happens. Monday's storms were not a bust, but it was not bad either (at least here.) A couple of weeks ago, there was a high risk of severe weather and it was a bust. Then, that snow storm that was forecast back in the last part of March or first part of April (I forget now) was a bust. Again, this is not just you it is weather!

I am getting to the point where until it happens, I do not buy it. Although your team is much better than some of the rest in the KC area. I just do not understand why NWS is not forecasting the high chance of rain. Then again, they never do get it!

Have a geat one!
Brian in Overland Park

BRIAN,

WE FORECAST WHAT WE THINK WILL HAPPEN. THERE IS NO HYPE TO IT EVER! WE WILL BE WRONG SOMETIMES, BUT WHEN IT DOES RAIN AND EVERYONE GETS AT LEAST THE ONE INCH THAT I AM PROMISING AND THE LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT I AM EXPECTING, WILL OTHERS REALIZE THAT OUR FORECAST WAS THE BEST ONE, AND THE EARLIEST?

THE SHIELD WILL BE BROKEN WITH THIS STORM.

GARY

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I believe you on this one. It is not too much of a stretch to say the entire area will get 1 inch over the weekend. I do believe that someone will get much more. Will stay tuned to see what you say tomorrow, by then you will have 100% confidence.

Again, great addition to the family. Im sure she will be trained in no time and getting her much deserved air time.

JOE,

THANK YOU. ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EVERYWHERE. THE 4 INCH OR MORE BULLSEYE IS HARD TO PIN DOWN. BUT SOMEONE WITHIN 100 MILES OF US WILL GET THAT MUCH OUT OF THIS STORM.

GARY

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I'm 2 miles west of Smithville. We've got frost this morning. It's 37 at my house right now, but 31 at the garden which sits about 15 feet lower than the house. Running the sprinklers on the strawberries...

BILL,

THANKS, I HAVE A BET WITH JACK HARRY THAT IT WOULD DROP TO 38 DEGREES THIS MORNING. I MADE IT TWO WEEKS AGO AND NOW I AM GOING TO LOSE UNLESS KCI DROPS JUST 2 MORE DEGREES.

I AM GOING TO SEND HIM YOUR STATEMENT, BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T HELP MY CAUSE.

THIS MAY BE OUR LAST FROST, BUT THERE COULD BE ONE MORE CHANCE NEXT WEEK.

GARY

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How much concern with the low, assuming it develops as forecast, being so powerful that it actually pushes the rain far away from the center and wraps drier air in around the center? Has happened twice over the past couple of months during a sure thing. Thank you for your reply.

ERIC,

A LOT OF THINGS CAN GO WRONG. THIS IS WHY I AM CERTAIN WE WILL ALL GET AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN. BUT IF IT MAXIMIZES ITS POTENTIAL THEN BY MONDAY SOME SPOTS COULD GET MUCH MORE. I THINK YOU WERE READING SOMEONE ELSES BLOG.

GARY

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IF there is a chance of severe weather this weekend which day might be the most likely? And does this mean just hail or possibly tornadoes? I work this weekend and maybe we'll just move all the hospital patients to the safe area on the day you suspect and be done with it.

JERI,

I DOUBT WE WILL HAVE MUCH SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW EACH DAY SETS UP.

GARY

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Gary,
It sure would be nice to see all that rain. I believe you. Forget about all those nay sayers. I don't trust anyone more than i trust you. Sure, noone's perfect and nobody's going to be right 100% of the time but you are right more than any other weather person i have ever seen. By the way, Breezy(I still like Haily....LOL)is too cute. Good luck with the potty training. Keep us updated on the storm. Thanks
Ryan

RYAN,

THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT. I ALWAYS LIKE TO THINK POSITIVE. THEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN THEN YOU ENJOYED IT ALL ALONG.

GARY

I do frequent all of the local stations forecasts/blogs. The differences are amazing many times. I don't think there is any denying that this has occurred twice already this spring. The weather channel experts also noted the dry air being brought into the systems at the time and the potential for this prior to it occurring. I am just wondering if in your opinion that potential exists, especially based on past performances? You and the team deserve a job well done on the forecast last weekend. Being the first and most adamant about the rainfall potential. If you had watched one station exclusively you were in for a surprise. One last thing, looking out 14 days or so we should be coming back to the March 12 set up again based on the theory. Any thoughts?

ERIC,

GREAT OBSERVATIONS! EVERY CLOSED LOW WILL DRAW IN DRY AIR AND THE RAIN WILL END UP FALLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. BUT BEFORE IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WE WILL HAVE TWO OR THREE VERY GOOD CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.

THE REALLY BIG CONCERN IS WHERE WILL THE UPPER LOW FORM? BUT, IT ISN'T A BIG CONCERN FOR ME BECAUSE THE RAIN PRODUCING MECHANISMS COME INTO PLAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FORMS. THE BIG CALIFORNIA SYSTEM GETS KICKED OUT RIGHT OVER EASTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER THIS PASSES THE UPPER LOW MAY FORM NORTHWEST OF US AND THEN WE WOULD BE IN THE WRONG SPOT FOR RAIN UNTIL IT MOVES EAST. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE HAD OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN.

MARCH 12TH AND THE SERIES OF SEVERE WEATHER SET UPS WILL VERY LIKELY BE RETURNING SOON. THE MAY VERSIONS WILL BE DIFFERENT BUT I THINK WE WILL HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN 15 DAYS.

GARY