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Hey Gary, I was wondering if this system has the potential to become a huge rain event, say 6" or more? KC is known for getting huge rainfalls in a short period that cause a lot of area flooding. I'll never forget the night at Arrowhead where the stairways turned into waterfalls and Brush Creek into a killer river. As always, thanks for the info and we'll be watching.

JEFF,

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. ONE THING GOING AGAINST RIDICULOUS AMOUNTS IS THAT IT JUST ISN'T A WARM SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE WARM MOIST AIR PUMPING INTO THE SYSTEM THOUGH SO LET'S SEE HOW IT SETS UP.

I WILL BE GOING INTO MORE DETAIL ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ALL OF THE NEWSCASTS TONIGHT. I WILL TRY TO GET VERY CREATIVE WITH GRAPHICS.

GARY

Gary - I know it's a long way away and anything can happen, but any inklings of a forecast for next Friday and the weekend? It always seems to rain on part of the Brookside Art Fair and it would be nice if it didn't for once. Thankfully the Fair isn't this weekend!

TROZ,

THANK GOODNESS IT ISN'T THIS WEEKEND. IT SHOULDN'T BE THAT BAD.

GARY

When do you expect this to start on Friday? We were hoping to mow Friday evening in Warsaw, but we may have a swamp instead!
Thanks for all the great work you do, and I really appreciate the blog. It lets me keep up at work where I don't have access to a tv!

DEE,

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD START BEFORE 1 PM. BUT THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE.

GARY

Do you have a timeline of when you think the rain will start this weekend? I know you are talking about multiple waves of storms, but I'm trying to decide on buying Royals tickets for Friday nights game. I'm guessing it is probably not a great investment for this weekend, but I haven't seen anything showing what time the rain will be moving in.

CHRIS,

IT WILL LIKELY RAIN WELL BEFORE THE ROYALS GAME ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A BAND STALLS OVER US OR THERE IS A BREAK FOR THE GAME TO GET IN.

GARY

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Gary, make sure with your creative graphics that you show the exact rainfall for my backyard, and the void of rain in BS as related to the SDE [Storm Dog Effect].

I will take you up on your 100% guarantee for 1 inch. I think it will be close, but I will guess just under that..maybe .88-.92.

To clarify..is that 1 inch for one, two, or three day totals?

SCOTT,

THIS IS MY 3 DAY TOTAL FORECAST. BUT 1 INCH IS CONSERVATIVE.

GARY

Hi Gary, Breezy looked wonderful during her television debut. My daughter has a track meet Saturday morning in NKC. What are the chances of it getting rained out?

ANN,

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY TO REALLY TIME IT OUT. I WILL TRY TONIGHT ON THE AIR BUT THE TIMING IS ALWAYS CHANGING.

GARY

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I wonder what will happen early next week when the next round of energy trailing from a Canadian low interacts with the cutoff low stuck over Kansas City? Maybe that will be enough to push it on...or may bring some severe potential with the merge?

SCOTT,

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT OUR UPPER LOW. IT, ALL BY ITSELF, WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

GARY

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Dumb question..if the upper level low is over the surface low..wouldn't that be horizontally stacked?

SCOTT,

WHEN YOU LOOK UP THAT IS VERTICAL. WHEN YOU LOOK ACROSS THAT IS HORRIZONTAL. SO THE SURFACE LOW IS DIRECTLY BELOW THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. IF YOU WERE STANDING ON THE SURFACE LOW YOU WOULD LOOK UP TO SEE THE UPPER LOW (VERTICAL).

GARY

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In an earlier blog you mentioned the spring suprise storm aspect. Does this happen with winter storms too? And can it happen with severe weather?

JON,

IT CAN HAPPEN DURING ANY SEASON, BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SPRING. WHEN WE HAVE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE TO A STORM AND THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE A LOT.

GARY

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Gary,
One simple question. I have a tee time at 9:09 Friday morning and should be finished no later than 2:00. Should I play in shorts, bundle up or cancel now?

Thanks!

BOB,

AS USUAL, YOU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE MORNING AND THEN MAKE THE CALL. BUT, IT LOOKS WET BY THE 13TH TEE.

GARY

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G-Man: I can't decide to cut the grass tonight or wait till tomorrow. What's your best guess as to when the rain will start?

ED,

I think it will start by 1 PM, but it could start 4 hours earlier. Mow tonight.

Gary

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It looks like I'm going to have a very, very wet birthday this weekend. =(

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

Gary

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Gary,

I realize that there will be no severe weather...But, I'm wondering will this rain event be something like periodic thunderstorms that come in intervals?

Keep up the great work!
Mary

MARY,

THERE SHOULD BE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN. LET'S SEE HOW IT SETS UP TOMORROW.

GARY

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Hi Gary:

Well, I am starting to come back around. After looking at all the data, after hearing other forecasts, I think this storm may actually happen.

I also want to clarify something. I do not think you always hype these storms so much as you just have lots of energy in your delivery. The other side of that is this - You are a broadcaster - you work for TV - it is normal to hype it a little. :-) You get excited and that comes through. I think you do a great job with these very complex systems. Yes, there will always be storms that turn out to be busts that is called NATURE. ï?Š

Have a great night!

Brian from Overland Park

OVERLAND PARK BRIAN,

THANKS FOR THE KIND WORDS. YES, I GET VERY EXCITED BUT IT IS THIS EXCITEMENT THAT COMES ACROSS AS HYPE, I THINK. I JUST TELL YOU WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN.

GARY

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You called this storm 2 days ago when nobody was making a big deal about it. You went on record yesterday as to 99% that we will get at least 1 inch of rain in the entire region. I say your doing a bang up job. Any "hype" that comes across is your enthusiasm for weather. You look at the data and make the call. You have to make your calls on many different forcast maps and models. I applaud you for sticking to your guns.

Thanks for always being here for us
Joe

JOE,

THANK YOU! FORECASTERS CAN OVER ANALYZE THE DATA. A GREAT FORECASTER MUST USE THEIR GUT INSTINCT. WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN WITH EACH SITUATION. IT IS VERY EASY TO BLINDLY USE THE COMPUTER MODELS. THEY CAN BE, AND OFTEN ARE VERY WRONG.

THIS STORM COMING OUR WAY IS ALREADY NOW LIKELY GOING TO DEVELOP WEST AND TRACK NORTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY. THIS WILL BRING IN THE DRY AIR AND THE RAIN COULD SHUT OFF SOMETIME SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE THIS HAPPENS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. THIS IS WHY I HAVEN'T SWAYED FROM MY CERTAINTY OF THE 1 INCH FORECAST. I SHOWED THE 2 TO 4 INCH FORECAST FROM OUR COMPUTER, AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER THAT.

GARY