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We Need Rain!
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 80
LOW: 54
HAPPY EARTH DAY!!!!!!!!!
Do you believe it... it was ANOTHER great day across the region! Plenty of sunshine, and highs right around 80 degrees. We took Mags to Shawnee Mission Dog Park again, and it was PACKED down by the lake today! I got to meet Stormy's brother while I was there, that was pretty cool. :)
Otherwise, some high clouds have been drifting in this evening. Right now, things are quiet... but I am thinking some thunderstorms will fire up after 9 or 10pm. There is a warm front to our south... you can see it on the surface map below:
Click to enlarge
Not EVERYONE will see rain with this round... but the thunderstorms should develop along and north of this front as the low level jet strengthens this evening. The LLJ is seen to our southwest on our 850mb map below...
Click to enlarge
What you see above is the RUC model, or Rapid Update Cycle. The RUC is a very short range model that is run each hour. But it only puts out a 12-hour forecast, so it is used for short-term forecasting. In looking at the RUC this evening... it does have an area of thunderstorms developing, as you can see below:
Click to enlarge
The rain should be outta here by tomorrow late morning, and most of Sunday looks dry for us. It should be another nice day... a few more clouds around... but highs again in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The chance of thunderstorms will increase Sunday night and Monday morning. Some areas could see a good soaking rain with this, as a complex develops in Kansas and heads our way. Here is a look at what the GFS is giving us in terms of rainfall totals:
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The GFS is showing the most rain of all the models... upwards of 2.5"!! That would be great if we got it... we sure need it. Our rainfall deficit stands like this (Jan 1st through today):
KCI
NORMAL: 7.17"
ACTUAL: 4.17"
DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE: -3.00"
Besides the much needed rainfall... we could also (unfortunately) see some stronger storms. The SPC has us in a slight risk for Sunday:
Click to enlarge
As I leave you with thoughts of thunderstorms... here is a nice picture of one! This was sent in by Curtis Olinger of Lenexa. Curtis... thank you for always sending us your cool pictures!!
Check out that strange lightning on the right-hand side. Weird!
Have a good one!
Jamie
Posted by at April 22, 2006 7:55 PM
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We are in Olathe and it is raining good. I know it might not last long, but we love the sound of it. It is around 9:25 pm. Thanks for the great forcasting! WE love the weather!!!
ANNA:
I am glad you are finally getting some rain! You may have a few more rounds of it before the night is over!
Jamie
Posted by: Anna at April 22, 2006 9:26 PM
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Perfect forcast!! Right after 9 it actually started to rain in Olathe. This is the first rain at my house in over 6 weeks!! All those other storms ALL missed us. One of them produced rain 5 blocks away but not here.
My lawn and landscaping thanks you!
LEONARD:
I think I hear a collective "Woo-Hoo!" coming from Johnson County! ;)
Jamie
Posted by: Leonard at April 22, 2006 9:27 PM
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Hi - Right on the money - 2142 (942pm) and a NW-SE oriented line of heavy storms from central KC to south-central Jackson Co - perfect call - 3 1/2 hours ahead of NWSs forecast of "after 0100 (1 am)"
Dog
DOG:
I actually thought it would be closer to 10pm... but HEY... AWESOME... we sure need it!! :)
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at April 22, 2006 9:44 PM
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Hooray! It's raining at a pretty good pace here in Lenexa with some heavy pea-size hail thrown in. Even though it looks like it may not last for very long, it's still nice to at least see SOME rain!
HAPPY PENGUIN:
I am glad you got some much needed rain! There may be more tonight!
Jamie
Posted by: happy penguin at April 23, 2006 12:33 AM
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It was so nice to hear the rain and hail last night!!! I look forward to even more rain tonight. Hope your pup isnt too scared of the thunder. :)
Have a great weekend Jamie and I look forward to seeing you and Gary tonight when things heat up. Maybe we wont need you and we just get a nice good soaking rain and nothing severe.
JOE:
I am hoping the same thing!!
Jamie
Posted by: joe at April 23, 2006 1:20 AM
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Ok so what do YOU think about the chance for severe weather? I don't care what the Weather Channel says, you all always know best.
JERI:
We will likely see thunderstorms overnight. I am not expecting a huge severe weather outbreak, but some storms may reach severe hail criteria. Last night was similar... a few cells got close. We'll keep a watch on it for you...
Jamie
Posted by: Jeri at April 23, 2006 12:46 PM
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Hi - here are my weather notes so far from today, as you can see, I feel somewhat less than enthusiastic reading the discussion from the NWS - sounds like receiving a big rainfall event here is quite conditional. Hope Blue Springs luck doesn't continue as it as - only got near a third of an inch - very gruding amounts in the rain gauge:
Mostly sunny day after the brief and not overly generous storms of last night – still, something was better than nothing, but nothing to make a dent in our increasingly dry conditions. Jo Anne did say we had nickel sized hail at the house, although the Ranger Station saw nothing of the sort. This day, we reached 75F by 1630, with a dewpoint of 61F – obviously moisture was moving in from the south. There was a cap, stronger than forecast by any of the models to keep any afternoon convection down, and a front extended across southern Missouri to Emporia, For later in the night, the NWS noted that “AN EAST/WEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS ACR SRN KS INTO SRN MO...IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP IN SWRN KS AND PROPAGATE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.� With only mediocre instabilities, nothing much in the way of severe weather was anticipated. Also, the track of the MCS seemed to suggest it could only graze us, if at all, if the Dog’s luck continued as it was.
However, the NWS offered a possible consolation prize (yeah right), also saying that “EVEN IF THE MCS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE CWA...BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN GRIDS AFT 03Z. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.� This certainly sounded rather weak, as last night’s only gave us .30� or so, so what could we expect tonight, I thought - .10� – I felt less than enthusiastic, considering this wording that we’d see any “generous� rainfall over Blue Springs. The following day’s prognostication remained sketchy, with many chances of us not seeing much, unless things came together in the right way, which lately they really hadn’t for us.
Later,
Dog
DOG:
Don't be too discouraged... the chance of rain is a good 80%! And I have added it for Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning as well.
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at April 23, 2006 4:48 PM
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