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T-Storms today, a recap

Good evening everyone,

The day began with an upper level disturbance spinning over southwestern Missouri. It tracked north with a ball of tropical downpours and a few thunderstorms circulating as it moved northward across Johnson County, Missouri into Lafayette County. 3 inches of rain fell on top of 2.8 inches yesterday near Warrensburg.

I saw this disturbance at 5 AM as I was getting ready to update my forecast and go live on Newsradio 980 KMBZ and Country 106.5 WDAF. At this time I believed we would be under this cold pool aloft from the upper level system, and I also noticed the front had fallen apart and there was an inverted trough stretching from Nevada, Missouri north to St. Joseph. This is when I became convinced we would have rather widespread thunderstorms this afternoon and I went for it on the radio. Jamie changed her forecast to a 60% chance of thunderstorms and we hit it. It feels good when the forecast this difficult works out.

Now we look ahead......Below is the 96 hour GFS 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up) valid Sunday morning. This shows a summer like upper high forming over the southwest (I put the arrows showing the anticyclonic circulation). How strong will this feature get? We will have to monitor it closely, but until it comes over us we will have to watch thunderstorm complexes to our north and northwest as we are in north flow aloft on this map.

Click to enlarge

The weather pattern continues to cycle through the same one that set up in October and November. The colder, high amplitude part of the pattern will be due sometime in June. But, will it be too weak to affect us. It may be. If it is strong enough we could have a wet second half of the month, but only if it is strong enough.

Now to some excitement. We are getting NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS! This is a 24 hour weather channel that we will be providing many local weather updates on. It will be on our digital tier. We are the first television station in Kansas City to utilize this capability. If you have digital cable then you will be able to see this channel beginning June 12th. On Time Warner Cable I think it will be on channel 1442, where 1441 is channel 41. Is this something you will all watch?

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 8:52 PM | Comments (17)

Nearly 5 inches in Warrensburg!

Brad in Warrensburg just updated us and in Johnson county, Missouri they are now nearly up to 5 inches of rain with the additional 2 inches this morning.

Thunderstorms may pop up within the next few hours, but the spinning disturbance is just east of Kansas City. Tropical torrential downpours. I can't believe it.

Hopefully these thunderstorms will form soon. If you get under one of these you will get one inch of rain in less than a half hour.

We are going into northwest then north flow aloft during the next three days. There is a chance of a disturbance riding south this weekend to bring us a few thunderstorms.

Gary

Posted by at 11:16 AM | Comments (13)

T-Storms are developing

Good evening,

Thunderstorms developed around noon near Salina, and now they are slowly marching this way. It could be an exciting evening, but this is really a strange set up. It would be nice to get a heavy thunderstorm. The threat of any severe weather is small. But, there could be some small hail.

More later. Watch the shows and we will try to blog later.

Gary

Posted by at 4:56 PM | Comments (17)

Reality..........We may have been missed! And some dog pictures!

Let's begin today with complete frustration on my part. I had four hours of sleep last night waking up several times to see lightning north, west, east and near by. And, yet not even one drop of rain at my house. I am going to go into pessimism mode. Hopefully this will help produce some afternoon thunderstorms.

Here is the most compelling statistic:

KCI rainfall January 1 - May 30: 8.23"

Average rainfall by May 30th: 13.50"

This is 5.27"

below average with the deficit growing, and we were within 1" just a few weeks ago. This is the wettest time of the year and it is DRY.

The front that is supposed to help produce thunderstorms later today is falling apart. There is almost no convergence left and we could be left high and dry. Then again, there is still some hope. At this moment I feel we will have a few isolated thunderstorms but nothing organized. So, our rainfall deficit is likely to rise. The only rain we did get out of this was yesterday's surprise complex. All that rain did was create a bad image for our forecasts as we had to NOWCAST that one. We were the first ones to realize what was happening, but we still get blasted in the end for missing it.

I will try to get my attitude together later on. Have a great day! There is always the water bill to count on as I am now going to turn on the sprinklers again.

Windy continues to get so old, but today she attempted to play with Breezy, and Breezy and Stormy play hard.

Breezy waking up Windy this morning

Breezy getting Windy to play, sort of...Windy is 16 1/2 years old

Stormy and Breezy

Stormy and Breezy again

I just looked at the latest GFS run and there is almost no chance of rain for 15 days if it is correct. I should have been going with my instincts the entire time. This is a bad pattern. We knew it in November and it continues today. Hopefully there will be some excitement every once in a while.

Speaking of excitement. We have been teasing "Changing the way you will get weather....forever". What is it? We will let you know Wednesday!

Gary

Posted by at 10:49 AM | Comments (18)

Hit & Miss

Good morning!

Showers and thunderstorms moved through the area again this morning... but they were scattered, so not everyone saw rain. Right now, the last of the shower activity is moving out of the eastern viewing area. Here is what ESP looks like as of this writing... just click on the image to see the most CURRENT ESP picture:

Yesterday, we went to a cookout at our friends' house in De Soto, Kansas. There were some pretty good downpours there as thunderstorms came through between 11am and 3pm. Here is a look at some area rainfall amounts through this morning:

You can see the hit-and-miss nature of the thunderstorm activity. The highest report of rain I have seen is over 3" in Ottawa, KS... and notice that some places did not receive anything at all!

Anyway, Mags met a new friend at our cookout yesterday... a black lab named Flo. They had a good time playing in the pond after it rained!

Have a good day, and send us your rainfall report if you are lucky enough to get some rain today!
Thanks,
Jamie

Posted by at 7:22 AM | Comments (5)

Back to a wet pattern?

Good evening everyone,

Today was exciting and frustrating. Some of us had a lot of rain while many others were left with a few hundreths.

A cold front is moving very slowly into northern and central Kansas. It is weak, but strong enough to trigger thunderstorms. We will likely have at least one, if not two or three more complexes of thunderstorms before the cold front moves through Wednesday. Picking the exact spot for the heaviest rain is difficult, but I am expecting a few areas to get more than 3 inches of rain, and most of us should get close to one inch, hopefully more.

Then looking ahead I am somewhat encouraged for what I am seeing. We have potential for more rain in the next two weeks. Remember, it is not summer! Summer begins in three weeks and we have potential to have some interesting spring set ups with the pattern going through the cycle. Below is the 300 hour forecast. It may be fantasy, but I like what I see on this map. It completely fits with the pattern as the high amplitude western Canadian ridge north of Montana may get crazy. This would FORCE a cold front down here and given the time of the year it could get very wet. It is a long ways off so let's track this developing interesting weather pattern.

Click to enlarge (300 hours away, but I like the set up, only at this time of the year could this be wet)
Gary

Posted by at 6:43 PM | Comments (1)

Memorial Day T-Storms

Good afternoon everyone and Happy Memorial Day!

Thunderstorms have been flooding parts of eastern Kansas this morning and they are drifting into the Kansas City metro area. One to two inches of rain have been produced with the heavier thunderstorms with locally heavier amounts. This is a weak disturbance near the cold front that is triggering today's activity. Below is the 11:30 AM KSHB radar image. The movement of the cells is rather erattic and very difficult to say who will get the thunderstorms and who will miss them. Later tonight into Wednesday there will be even better chances with the potential for a lot of rain. More later with this rather interesting frontal system. I am back to work tonight to describe it. I hope I am not left frustrated as it seems the thunderststorms are hitting a brick wall west of the state line. Hopefully they will make it in here as my lawn would love to have a nice drink of water..........Now, 12:30 PM, look at the second radar picture. It is coming in! Yeah!

Click to enlarge (11:30 AM this morning as some of us are getting a wet holiday)

12:30 PM as cluster is now growing and moving in....exciting!

Gary

Posted by at 11:35 AM | Comments (13)

Another Record!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 93... A NEW RECORD!!
LOW: 75

We did it again! Today's record high WAS 92 degrees, set back in 1998. But today, we hit 93 degrees, making that the new record high! What a HOT holiday weekend! I hope you got to enjoy the summerlike weather!

The hot weather may be contributing to what is called "Leaf Drop"... perhaps you have noticed it in your neighborhood. The Johnson County Extension Master Gardener's Hotline has had numerous calls regarding trees dropping green leaves. County horticulture agent Dennis Patton, says leaf drop happens when we transition from cool to hot weather in the spring. The trees drop some leaves as it becomes heat and/or drought stressed because it cannot support the number of leaves it has. This year, they say leaf drop is much worse than normal... most likely due to heat SHOCK (ie, it has gotten HOT... FAST). They say the winter drought probably did a little contributing, too.

Speaking of the lack of rain... since March 1st, we are -3.77" below average rainfall. But things are looking up this week! A slow-moving cold front will drift into the region, bringing us the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

We'll start off slow on Memorial Day, with a 30% chance of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Then on Tuesday, with the front basically draped over us, we go up to a 70% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could contain heavy rain, as our precipitable water values are running over one inch! PW is the total number of water vapor in the air. Higher values tell us there is a deep layer of moisture... and thus the potential for some heavy rainfall.

Here is another look at forecast rainfall totals... first the GFS 60-hour, valid at midnight Thursday:

Click to enlarge

And here is the NAM for the same time period:

Click to enlarge

A lot can change between now and then... so let's not get too excited... ;) But it is encouraging to see!

This is what I mean by a lot can change between now and then. This is the 0Z run of the NAM... you can see much less rain here:

Click to enlarge

That is down to .01-.10" from it's earlier .25-.5" since the chance of rain is there over a couple of days... we will have to wait to see how each day sets up. Stay tuned!

Enjoy your evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:17 PM | Comments (3)

Hot Enough for Ya?

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 94 (NEW RECORD HIGH!)
LOW: 70

We did it, we set a new record high for today.

We could come close to breaking a record again for Sunday, as the current record is 92... and we will likely be in the lower 90s... something to watch!

That thunderstorm complex we were tracking last night came AWFULY close to hitting the Metro! Take a look at where the rain fell on our doppler estimate below:

Click to enlarge

There was a report of thunder at KCI, but no measurable precipitation fell. Up in St. Joseph, you did pick up .15". Lawrence picked up .03"... and Topeka had .06".

Sunday will be another windy, hot and humid day.... as will Monday. We are still watching a cold front for Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will bring the chance of thunderstorms... here is what it could look like by Tuesday evening:

The exact timing of rain chances are still in question, but confidence is increasing. AND if you don't like the HOT weather... hang in there! The front will also drop temperatures quite a bit. We will be in the lower 80s for the end of the week!

Hope you are having a GREAT weekend!!!!!!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:58 PM | Comments (3)

Holiday Weekend & Later Rain Chances

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 88
LOW: 61

We are heading into a great holiday weekend! Great for all the outdoor activities... if you are heading to the lake or to the pool, it will be nice and HOT for you. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs in the lower 90s. (see yesterday's blog entry on record vs. forecast highs for the weekend).

If you have picnic or BBQ plans... yes it will be a little on the warm side, but at least it will be DRY. Also, the winds will pick up! South winds will be coming in at 10-20 mph... gusting to 30mph... and the breeze will feel good, bringing you a little releif from the heat! You can see the surface winds picking up on the NAM below, valid for Saturday afternoon:

Click to enlarge

The dry weather will continue into the middle part of the week... and then we do start to see the CHANCE of RAIN. You can see the forecasted rainfall totals on the GFS. This is 60-hour rainfall, ending Wednesday at midnight:

Click to enlarge

I am sure you are all hoping for that outcome... but right now it is only a 30% chance, as confidence is not that high. We'll see how things evolve!

In other news... earlier this week, NOAA issued its 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Forecast! It is expected to be another active season... here are their forecasted numbers vs. average numbers:

As you can see, last year was a record year for tropical weather. Not only did we have a record-high 28 storms... but a record FOUR major hurricanes hit the United States. A hurricane is considered major if it is a Category 3 storm or greater.

Here is NOAA's graphic on what will help contribute to an active 2006:

Click to enlarge

With the lack of El Nino/La Nina... there should be warmer ocean waters... less wind shear... and favorable mid-level and surface winds. Hurricane season, by the way, starts next week!

Now for some fun stuff... today we took Mags over to Keith King's house so she could play with his dogs--- Murphy and Baily. Here are some pictures of them today:

I think Murphy has the biggest tongue I have ever seen!

Mags and Murphy had Baily on the run!




Mags and Murphy take a break from playing!

I hope you all have a wonderful and safe holiday weekend! I will be here throughout... we are having a little weekend-crew pot luck on Sunday. I will try to take some pictures of that, too!
Jamie

Posted by at 2:25 PM | Comments (6)

Lots to Blog About...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 90
LOW: 62

What a beautiful day! We made it up to 90... but it didn't feel nearly as uncomfortable today, as our dew points dropped signifincantly! We currently have dew points in the 40s, and it feels GREAT out there this evening!

There is a stalled front to our South, and spotty thunderstorms have developed along it this evening. As the front comes through on Friday... there is the chance of some spotty thunderstorms. I don't think everyone will see rain, but perhaps a few of the lucky ones will! :) And if you get it... consider yourself VERY lucky!

Click to enlarge

The RED numbers on the map are TEMPERATURES... and the GREEN numbers are DEW POINTS. You often hear about dew points AND relative humidity... but the dew point is actually the more accurate measure of moisture in the air. Whenever the dew points are above 65 or so... it starts to feel really muggy.

As that front lifts north of Kansas City... our dew points will rise, and you will definitely notice it this weekend. The winds will also increase out of the south... so there will be a nice breeze. And the breeze will be welcomed, as we will be darn close to breaking some record highs! Here are the current records for each day, and then what we are forecasting for highs:

So you can see, we will be close each day!

As you probably noticed, the rainy period we saw at the end of April really helped the grass grow and green up. For allergy sufferers... it looks like GRASS will be the dominant pollen for the next few weeks. Children's Mercy's Section of Allergy & Asthma says bluegrass and rye are now pollnating. Next month fescue and brome will start to produce pollen... so expect a heavy grass season!

Here is another interesting tid-bit today...
CAPE CANAVERAL, FL (AP)
NASA has launched a weather satellite that will allow forecasters to better pinpoint severe storms, and investigate world climate change. After months of delay, the GOES-N satellite took off about 6pm Eastern on a Boeing Delta Four rocket from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The GOES-N is a step in the development of a family of weather satellites designed, built and maintained by NASA and NOAA since 1975. It is the first in a series of three new satellites. The satellite carried instruments to allow meteorologists on the ground to take images of weather problem spots, and improve short-term forecasts locally. Despite today's launch, it will be a few years before the satellite is operational in space. GOES stands for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites.

We are still seeking suggestions for weather content on our website! You can comment below with ideas... and we thank you!

Have a good night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:14 PM | Comments (6)

Drought Watch returns

Good evening,

First of all, Jamie asked a question of all of you. We will be updating and revising our website within the next month. One thing that will change is the Action Weather Blog will be going to our front page. But, much more than this we would like to make our weather page one of the best in the nation. So, please provide us with ideas and we will go to bat with them next week.

Secondly, DROUGHT WATCH returns. We were showing our drought watch in March and April. Then we had 20 days of rain, but now guess what? Well you know. It is drying out and there is nothing we can do about it. The next four weeks will be quite interesting as summer settles in, and yet we are still in the weakening version of the same pattern that set up last fall. Before La Nina, during a weak La Nina, and now back to neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Bottom line, the ocean oscillations have VERY LITTLE impact on our weather pattern cycle. The same pattern continues. And, it has been a very bad pattern for weather enthusiasts around our part of the country. So, no surprise that it is winding down the way it started. BORING. There is some hope as we move through June, but I have big concerns. If June is dry then a serious drought will have exploded on us and it is my least favorite kind of weather. So, let's hope for rain soon.

Gary

Posted by at 9:36 PM | Comments (6)

Better Than Nothing...

Well we had a broken line of thunderstorms come through the area early this morning. You can see what it looked like at 4am on the radar image below:

Here are some of the area totals from that line:

KCI: .04"
DOWNTOWN: .41"
LEES SUMMIT: .31"
ST. JOSEPH: .01"
TOPEKA: .27"
OLATHE: .07"

The cold front is still West of us... as you can see below:

Click to enlarge

Until that front comes through, there will be the chance of additional showers or thunderstorms. The BEST chance will be to the South and East of the Metro. As I am typing this, there is new development right on the eastern fringes of the Metro:

Click the image above to see the CURRENT ESP radar. We will keep an eye on any developing thunderstorms through the afternoon!
Just an update to include the TORNADO WATCH issued for our Eastern counties! The WATCH goes until 8pm... here are the Missouri counties included:
Carroll
Henry
Johnson
Lafayette
Livingston
Pettis
Ray
Saline
Thunderstorms could develop over these counties, and then race eastward out of our area. We will keep you updated if anything does turn severe!

We are in the process of updating our website. I am putting this question out to all bloggers: What kind of maps/graphics would you like to see included on our website? Is the daily almanac important to you... a local temperature map... or a map with model forecasted clouds/rain? Think about it, and comment below! Thanks for you help!

Jamie

Posted by at 10:07 AM | Comments (16)

Is there hope for rain?

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight as the California storm rides up and over our "long term" longwave ridge which is haunting us at this time. As the system turns southeast over the Dakota's tonight a weak cold front, or wind shift line will be approaching and passing through us during the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be triggered tonight north and northwest of us this evening and we will know by later this evening if we have a good chance or if it will miss us. I feel that the chance of thunderstorms is 50% later tonight as they may miss us to the north.

Then we focus on the next 15 days. Summer is approaching and you can see what has happened by looking at the below 500 mb flow, that I tried to paint the flow on. This is the 168 hour forecast from the 06z run of the GFS. So, one week from now. It shows a very well defined split flow developing and possibly strengthening. With one branch of the jet stream well to the north in Canada and a southern branch over the western United States. The heights have risen over the eastern third of the nation and that is actually a weak upper low over the southeast. But, there is very weak flow over the eastern half of the nation showing that summer is almost here.

If we are to have a long wet stretch it may very well come from the evolution of this split flow. If we can get a cold front down here from the northern branch then there is a high likelyhood that we could have quite a few days with thunderstorms around. This is what we will be watching closely over the next 10 days to see if this will set up. This still doesn't bring us a lot of flow for severe weather, but eventually there could be enough before the season comes to a close.

Click to enlarge (168 hour valid 1 AM next Monday night)

This is still the same pattern, weakening and shifting northward. As we continue to cycle through this pattern (around 60 days or so) we should have cold fronts generated by the northern branch and they will make it down to our region. If we can get a front to stall in the area then it will get wet. There are a few if's though, so let's see how this whole thing evolves. The bottom line though is that severe weather season had a booming beginning and a sudden end this year. But, will there be a finale worthy of some excitement?

Have a great day! And, think positively for a thunderstorm late tonight.

New data just in! The NAM at 3:08 PM does bring us some nice lifting after midnight. I think we will up our chance of thunderstorms to at least 70% late tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 10:45 AM | Comments (15)

Drying out again

Good morning everyone,

Suddenly we are 4 inches below average again. KCI has had 8.04" this year. The average rainfall by May 22nd is 12.04".

This weather pattern we are in is showing its true colors. As the flow aloft weakens and summer approaches we can see the details to why we had it so bad this past winter. There is a lot going on and yet we are more often near a "long term" longwave ridge. Storm systems more often move northeast through the western states and then turn southeast as they move into the plains. This is the last thing you want to see if we are to enjoy exciting weather. This next storm is doing this as it is blasting California this morning. It is EXTREMELY rare for Los Angeles to have any rain at this time of the year. They were hit this morning by a significant rain event, less than one inch, but Los Angeles only averages about 1/4" for the entire month of May. This storm is now going to move northeast into the plains before turning southeast near the Missouri river. This places us in the wrong spot for any significant chance of rain. We will have to watch this closely as there will be the potential for severe thunderstorms Tuesday or Wednesday.

The weather pattern should shift back into a wetter pattern in the next two weeks. More on this later as I am concerned as summer is approaching.

Gary

Posted by at 6:59 AM | Comments (10)

Warmer!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 85
LOW: 61

Overnight, we did see those thunderstorms develop south of Kansas City! Here is a look at the Doppler rainfall estimates:

Click to enlarge

The thunderstorms were moving slowly and TRAINING over the same areas. Training is when they line up much like the cars of a train... and that means flooding problems! We had reports in Coffey and Anderson Counties of 3+" of rain, and streams out of their banks! These thunderstorms also brought some hail... up to 1.25" in size.

Things should be quiet for us tonight... I am not expecting any rainfall. Monday looks like another nice day, with highs in the lower-mid 80s. Tuesday looks hot... in the upper 80s to near 90... then the chance of thunderstorms moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday (with the wave I blogged about last night). The best place for thunderstorm activity Tuesday night will be the northern 1/2 of the viewing area... hopefully everyone can get a little rain on Wednesday. Right now, it's a 30% chance... and we will keep updating that forecast as we gain confidence in the storm's position and timing.

A look ahead to the holiday weekend shows.... HOT temperatures! Right now I expect highs in the 90s and dry conditions! Great for all the local pools that will be opening! :)

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:48 PM | Comments (1)

Cooler!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 79
LOW: 59

Well it certainly felt much cooler out there today! Yesterday, we broke a record high and made it up to 95 degrees!! Amazing. Today... cooler in the wake of the front that passed through... with highs in the 70s. That front didn't get very far... it is currently stalled out over Southern Kansas and Southern Missouri:

Click to enlarge

Overnight, as the low level jet increases over a portion of that front (likely over SE Kansas)... we could see showers and thunderstorms develop. See the LLJ on the NAM below:

Click to enlarge

Look out for about a 30% of morning showers! It looks like this activity will be confined to areas south of the Metro... but we're right on the edge! As for the rest of the week... we'll see lower 80s on Monday... then 90s again for Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a upper level storm being advertised... and it's movement/position are still in question. You can see how the models have not really figured that out yet. Here is this morning's GFS, with the storm pretty darn close to us on Wednesday night:

Click to enlarge

And here is this afternoon's run... you can see it's just a little farther north:

Click to enlarge

The position of this energy will play a roll in our cloud cover, the chance of showers... and of course... temperatures. We will continue to monitor the trends and let you know what it looks like as we get closer!

Hope you are having a fun weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:43 PM | Comments (2)

Record heat.......95 degrees today

Good Friday evening everyone,

My allergies have turned into something bigger and I just want to get home and rest all weekend long.

At 4:54 PM we reached 95 degrees which broke the previous record of 94 sent just 8 years ago in 1998. I am not surprised and we should have predicted this yesterday. This morning we went for 93 degrees but even that was under done. There was one isolated thunderstorm northeast of Kansas City this evening, but now we need rain. It is drying out.

Our weather pattern is so strange it is hard to explain. At the surface we have a wind shift or weak cold front moving through right now. A stronger front should pass through over the weekend but this may go by somewhat unnoticed as well (Below is the 48 hour surface map valid Sunday at 1 PM showing a cold front or rather a stationary front which has stalled over northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas). We have to watch this area for potential thunderstorm development as well as areas up the western plains of eastern Colorado and Wyoming. If it is going to rain, complexes of thunderstorms will have to form and then move our way. Unfortunately a ridge aloft wants to park itself near eastern Kansas drifting to the west and then moving back our way for the next week. So, it could be a battle for us to get rain. And we may lose this battle for another 10 days.

Click to enlarge

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Posted by at 7:45 PM | Comments (3)

It may get wet soon

The trend continues! Good evening everyone,

I am now getting somewhat excited. There has been a trend in the computer models to go back into the more progressive flow across the United States. This northwest flow is about to end as a series of disturbances breaks into the western states. This has to provide some good chances for rain and thunderstorms as well as a few severe weather set ups during the next 20 days. Since we are in transition, the computer models are not handling this well at this time. So, be patient. I am now expecting a good 3 inches of rain or perhaps 5 inches of rain or more in the next 20 days.

It almost begins this weekend, but moisture is lacking at this time. A front may stall in the area so watch out......each day there is actually a slight chance of something interesting developing and moving in. It may be tough to produce widespread rain, but once it begins watch out. So, be patient for another 10 days as this transition takes place.

Click to enlarge

Above, you can see the 500 mb flow at 150 hours. This is the GFS forecast from the 18z run. This shows the storm that moved into the Rockies and then turned southeast right over us. And, then notice the trough sagging into the northwest states. This is still a messed up pattern and I can't wait until next fall when we get a new one, but I expect some interesting set ups during the next three weeks.

Gary

Posted by at 5:52 PM | Comments (6)

Warm Up

Hello, there!

We are in for another nice day across the region... it will even be a little WARMER this afternoon! The morning satellite image does show clouds out there:

Click to enlarge

But these are high cirrus clouds, and THIN... so plenty of sunshine will reach us as the day continues. We are expecting even warmer temperatures as we head into the weekend! First, take a look at the 850mb analysis this morning:

Click to enlarge

Temperatures are running about 7 degrees C (45 F) at 5,000 feet. Now take a look at the 850mb forecast for Saturday afternoon:

Click to enlarge

You can see, temperatures are significantly warmer here... about 23 degrees C (73 F). The 850mb chart is a great chart to track the movement of airmasses. And in our case, a much warmer one should be in place by the weekend. Saturday's record high is 90 degrees, set back in 1970... and we could be pushing that number. Stay tuned, Gary will have an update this evening... and more on our rain chances, too!

Jamie

Posted by at 8:59 AM

Rain showing up or just fantasy?

The last two runs of the GFS have shown some interesting changes. Below you can see the GFS forecast from the 18z run. This is the 60 hour precipitation forecast for late next week. It may be fantasy so don't get excited yet. A block is forming over eastern Canada and this should allow the jet stream to plow into the western United States and affect our weather soon.

Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 6:13 PM | Comments (6)

Shifting weather pattern

Good afternoon everyone,

I like to call the weather pattern a shifting one, rather than a changing one because I believe we are cycling through the same pattern. So, it isn't really changing, but shifting into the next part of the cycle. It will change in late summer and into the unique pattern that will set up next fall. We have just about completed our third cycle that became established in the fall. Remember my theory: A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 10th and November 10th. It becomes established and starts cycling. The first cycle is hard to determine, but once the weather pattern completes the first cycle it starts repeating. We have had three long cool spells in this pattern and we have just completed the third cool spell. We thought all along that late April into early May we would have this next cold outbreak and I was somewhat concerned of a late killing freeze or frost. We, fortunately didn't get the freeze, but we did have the cool spell as expected.

When the weather pattern set up back in the early autumn, the NBC Action News Weather Team thought we were "doomed" as this pattern was a very bad one for us. This is why our initial winter forecast was for, perhaps the lowest amount of snow in our history and we predicted 11 inches for the season. I didn't see the cold part of the cycle, even though it did show itself during October. Then along came our huge December snowstorm, out of no where. That storm actually repeated in early February, but it went by unnoticed as a fast moving short wave. This is where my theory gets very complex as the same pattern can produce significantly different results.

During the past 28 days we have been 80 degrees or lower every day. It hit 80 three times, 9 days in the 70s and 16 days below 70 degrees. We also had anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of rain across the region. So, it has been COOL and WET. But, now we are drying out.

So, what is next? Below are three maps.

Click to enlarge (Upper flow showing another Great Lakes low developing)

Click to enlarge (Surface map showing cold front already past us by Sunday morning)

Click to enlarge (500 flow in nine days)

Eventually we will have some rain chances. The first chance could arrive with Friday nights and Saturday's cold front. About 6 to 10 days from now the pattern will be shifting and we may have more favorable rain chances at this time. The third map shows the trough coming into the Rockies on day 9 (216 hours). By this time it may be very dry again. The pressure will be on for the weather pattern to produce rain. It won't take much as the wettest 30 days on average in Kansas City is mid May to mid June. And, don't be surprised. Just when it is really getting hot in June or early July, the colder part of this cycle will be returning. But, will it be strong enough to produce another cool spell in July? I think it will be.

Gary

Posted by at 11:57 AM | Comments (7)

The weather pattern is in a rut!

This week will be dominated by a ridge in the west and a Great Lakes upper low. The upper low that is now over the eastern part of the USA will lift out, but then be replaced by a new developing Great Lakes upper low. Below you can see today, Wednesday and then Thursday night as the new upper low forms. There is not enough moisture at this time of the year to bring us any thunderstorms. This same pattern in a couple of weeks may have enough moisture, but by this time the pattern will have shifted with the ridge trying to come right over us. This would imply a significant warm up soon.

Click to enlarge (Shows the 500 mb flow today)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow Thursday night)

We are stuck in this part of the pattern but it should break down within the next 7 days. If that ridge out west shifts into the plains we will be approaching 90 degrees again and it will be dry. Hopefully a storm can sneak into the flow. As soon as it looks exciting we will let you know.

Today, a few showers are likely to form. We are very unstable aloft with some rather cold temperatures up around 10,000 to 20,000 feet up. This should be able to create a few showers by early this afternoon that could linger into the evening.

Have a great day. You can see in yesterday's entry by Jamie we had a great time at the Olathe Animal Hospital open house Saturday. Stormy and Breezy were so wonderful to sit there and help me sign autographs. Jamie brought Mags and I tried to pick her up. She is really getting big.

Gary

Posted by at 11:13 AM | Comments (5)

A Broken Record...

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!!!!!

TODAY'S NUMBERS
HIGH: 64
LOW: 46

That is exactly what I feel like... a broken record. The reason... the pesky Low over the Great Lakes hasn't moved much over the past few days. This has left us with clouds and cool temperatures. And these conditions will continue... at least for the first half of the week!

I always think it's cool to see such a pronounced ridge/trough pattern:

Click to enlarge

Under the Low to our East... they are still experiencing really raw weather! My relatives in Ohio and Illinois have been complaining... it has literally been constant light rain/mist, chilly temperatures, and windy conditions. Yuck! So we don't really have it THAT bad, even though it's cool here. Eventually, that low will push farther East... and the warmer air to our West will be ushered in here. We should see 70s and 80s by the end of the week.

I know a lot of you have been complaining about the lack of severe weather... when we are in what should be one of the most ACTIVE months! I don't have news of approaching storms... but this is interesting... a list of the most tornado prone cities during the month of May:

The list above is put together by VorTek each year. It's an ongoing company-funded research study of tornadic risk assessment. They determine the rankings based on NWS data from 1950 through 2004. The ACF "Annual Coverage Fraction" represents the average fraction of land area within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during May for the 55-year period from 1950 through 2004. The "disturbed land area" represents the average number of acres of land within a 20-mile radius of the city disturbed by tornadoes during May for the same 55-year period. Here is a link to more on their research: VORTEK

There are quite a few Metro cities listed!

OK... last night I brought Mags to the station, and Keith King brought his dog, Murphy. Mags and Murphy played for HOURS... it was quite entertaining! Here is a look at the fun they had!

Do I know you?




Let's play!




Two tough dogs!




Murphy poses nice... while Mags keeps running around




They wore themselves out!




Good pals, just hanging out!

I know these aren't the best pictures... It is REALLY hard to get two labs to sit still!!!! :)

And just because this blog entry isn't long enough... I will add some MORE pictures!! These are from the Olathe Animal Hospital Open House held over the weekend:

At the event!

Gary and Breezy at work

Breezy's first trick.... SIT!

Mags gets a free ride!

Gary's new friend!

The pet trick contest winners!

Front: Mags & me... Gary, Stormy & Breezy...
Back: Jessi & Mary... thanks for the pictures!!

Jamie

Posted by at 4:44 PM | Comments (8)

Mild... with a side of clouds....

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 68
LOW: 47

I hope you are all having a great weekend! Today turned out to be a pretty nice day. We had a weak upper level disturbance swing through from Northwest to Southeast this afternoon. That produced some clouds and virga... and kept things cool. But once that was through, the sun came back out... and temperatures warmed into the upper 60s.

Our Northeastern counties didn't see as much sun as we did here in the Metro... it's another one of those times when cloud cover is bisecting the area. You can see what I'm talking about on the satellite image below:

Click to enlarge

Those clouds over the eastern viewing area will try to back in overnight... and clouds should be around for Sunday. It looks like it will be a bit cooler, too... with highs in the lower 60s. There MAY even be a sprinkle or light rain shower... but nothing very significant. Sorry, Mothers! (Happy Mother's Day, by the way!) :)

Our winds will remain out of the Northwest, keeping temperatures slightly below average through Tuesday. By mid-week... we will see westerly winds develop... and that will help boost temperatures! We still have 80 degrees in the 7-day forecast!

Mags and I went out to the Olathe Animal Hospital open house today to see Gary, Stormy and Breezy. It was really fun, and there were some amazing pets there! I got to meet one of our bloggers (hi, Mary!) and she is going to send some pictures soon!

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,
Jamie

Posted by at 5:00 PM | Comments (1)

A break from the rain, a long break!

We had 17 out of 19 days of rain. And, now, it suddenly stops. There is a big upper low over the Great Lakes. It will take at least 10 days for this pattern to break down, possibly longer. So, it will be nice and boring for a while. As soon as I see some potential for a storm I will let you know. I am anticipating the last 7 days of May could get exciting.

Breezy, Stormy and I will be at the Olathe Animal Hospital National Pet Week Open House from noon to 2 PM. Windy will stay at home enjoying her retirement. She just passed 16 1/2 years old Wednesday. So, November 10th could be her 17th birthday and based on this week she just may make it. There is also a rumor that Mags and Jamie may show up for a few minutes Saturday as well. We will be at 13800 135th street in Olathe.

Have a great weekend.

Posted by at 9:07 PM | Comments (3)

TGIF!

Good morning everyone! (or good afternoon or evening, depending on when you read this!)

After a very GRAY day yesterday... we are starting off with plenty of sunshine this Friday morning! Heading through the day, expect to see some fair weather cumulus clouds develop... but the sun will still be visible, too. As you travel East from the Stateline... expect the clouds to increase. Highs will be near 70 here in Kansas City, and a little clooer under the cloud cover in the East!

What is going on? Well, check out the BIG storm over the Great Lakes on the NAM 500mb initilization below:

It is just going to be a gray, gloomy day under that vertically-stacked, slow moving storm! You can see the extensive cloud cover it brings on this morning's satellite image:

Click to see the impressive satllite loop!

As that Low slips south over the weekend... it's far western edge of cloud cover will get closer to Kansas City. So we may see a few more clouds here in the Metro. It will also be slightly cooler over the weekend, with highs in the 60s. And since those counties East of the Metro will be closer to the storm... we can't rule out some spotty sprinkles there as energy rotates around the main storm.

Besides this storm, we are still expecting a pretty quiet period weather-wise! No big storms in the forecast, and temperatures will be cool through the middle part of next week, when we could see highs close to 80 by Wednesday!

Have a good TGIF!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:50 AM | Comments (7)

Night Out Pictures

Tonight the people at the Bonefish Grill had "media night"... and some of us from the station went out to try the new restaurant. There is one North of the river, near I-29 and North 64th... and the one we went to tonight, in Leawood on 135th. VERY good food, and a fun time, too!

Here are some pictures from the event:

This is a picture of our group... on the left: Debbie Bush (our news director), Gary, and me. On the right: Jeff Penner, his wife (and new momma) Edi... and then my husband Ken in the back.

This is us with one of the nice people that work there, Freddy. The service was great!

Right as we were finishing... this cutie came over and asked for Gary's autograph. He was so sweet!

And what would an event be, without the doggies. This is Stormy and Breezy... I don't know why I ended up holding the heavier dog! ;)

Hope you enjoy them!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:22 PM | Comments (5)

Viewer Pics & Outlook Recap

Hello, there!

I hope you are having a good week so far! I enjoyed a few days off... and we got to go to the Royals/Indians games both Monday and Tuesday. All the Royals fans were VERY excited, as KC won both games! Being from Ohio... it was hard to see my Indians take the beating... but it was a fun time, anyway!

Here is a picture of me and Meredith Hoenes with former MLB umpire (and hero) Steve Palermo:

And here is a great story from ESPN.com on Palermo, who lives right here in the Kansas City area: http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2001/0705/1222789.html#

Now for another picture sent in by Susan Broome... we sat behind her and her family at the game on Tuesday:

Yes... that is an Indians shrit under my jacket... sorry... I am very loyal! (But I do cheer for the Royals when they are NOT playing Cleveland!) :)

While we are on viewer photos... how about a few more? Here is one sent in by Michaela Harper from Wathena, Kansas. She took this picture of Tuesday's sunset the way home from Troy, Kansas. Great shot!

And here's an interesting image.

This was sent in by Adam from Riverside. He swears this is what he saw on the NCAR website yesterday! Pretty interesting!

You may have missed Gary's 15 day outlook last night... so here is a recap:
Over the next 15 days, we average two-and-a-half inches of rain. We are expecting to be MUCH below average as we actually go through this period. While there are a few light showers around today, we are going into a dry part of the pattern. We expect it to warm up at the end of this 15-day period... then it could get stormy again!

Have a good day!
Jamie

Posted by at 2:09 PM | Comments (2)

Spring surprise factor part 3? nope!

The NAM just came in with an interesting twist. The storm forecasted to develop east of here and begin our dry spell may form fast enough to bring us some rain and interesting weather Wednesday into Thursday. More on this later this evening as I analyze more data.

There may be a few showers, but it looks like we are beginning our long dry spell.

Gary

Posted by at 3:59 PM | Comments (9)

Beautiful day as we DRY OUT

Good afternoon everyone,

Today ends up being the most beautiful day of the year. We had anywhere from 0.18" to about 0.60" around the area last night with the loud thunderstorms. Today we are setting up for southern Kansas and Oklahoma thunderstorms. Just looking at the 500 mb flow I would say thunderstorms are likely here tonight, but when you analyze all of the data the most likely spot will be southern Kansas with us on the edge. Something could still form further north with the upper level support so let's watch it carefully. The second map below shows the front going by early tomorrow morning ending our thunderstorm threat for a while. Cold air aloft could produce a few thunderstorms Wednesday so we better watch that closely as well.

Click to enlarge (upper flow tonight at 1 AM)

Click to enlarge (surface 7 AM Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (Upper flow Friday night)

Above, you can see we have a big problem. A deep Great Lakes low is developing and we will have a cool Canadian flow for a while. We have to see if the flow flattens enough to allow low pressure in the western plains which would draw up some moisture. But, it may be difficult for a few days for us to see much action. Remember this is now the wettest month ahead, but unfortunately for the next 10 to 15 days it could be rather dry. I will be talking about this tonight on the newscasts.

Gary

Posted by at 11:22 AM | Comments (5)

Pet Expo picture and thunderstorms

Above you can see Koyuki, Stormy, Breezy and me at the Pet Expo Saturday. Thank you for the picture Koyuki and it was great meeting one of our bloggers.

Thunderstorms are heading our way at 8:30 PM. I think they will get here by 5 AM or so, but I will time it out better on the 10 PM newscast. Let's hope they don't fall apart.

Gary

Posted by at 8:21 PM | Comments (8)

Thunderstorms tonight

Good morning everyone,

The new data is trickling out this morning and it appears that we will have a good chance of thunderstorms this evening or overnight. Below is the surface map and the 500 mb map valid at 1 AM tonight.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Remember the 500 mb level is 18,000 feet up, roughly. 0 mb is the top of the atmosphere and 1000 mb is near the surface. So, we like looking at the 500 mb level for many reasons, but being half way through the atmosphere in weight is important and representative of the movement of storm systems.

Today's 500 mb NAM forecast for 1 AM tonight shows that we have gone through a major transformation over the weekend. The jet stream has dropped back to the south and we have enough flow aloft for severe weather. We will have to watch this evenings developments closely.

Something is strange, however. It is basically this entire weather pattern that is wacky, so let's see how everything sets up.

Gary

Posted by at 10:00 AM | Comments (12)

A Look at Satellite Images

TODAY'S NUMBERS
HIGH: 62
LOW: 46

We started the day with fog and mist... and once again, those clouds hung around most of the day. In response, high temperatures were cool--in the lower 60s. There was actually a little more sunshine in our Northeastern counties... which meant warmer temps. You all enjoyed a nice day in the mid-to-upper 60s! We are jealous!

We are being teased this evening. The low cloud deck is eroding from the south... as you can see on our satellite image below:

Click to enlarge

This is a look at the VISIBLE satellite... which if you remember from an earlier blog... is a measure of the sunlight reflecting off the cloud tops. You can typically see more TEXTURE on a visible satellite image... and it shows developing and decreasing cloud cover very nicely. BUT it doesn't really let you tell the difference between low, mid and high level clouds. For that, we use the INFARED satellite:

Click to enlarge

The infared image shows higher (colder) cloud tops in bright white... and lower (warmer) clouds in a duller gray. You can see the dull low clouds breaking up south of KC (although they are faint!). On this image, you can also clearly see an ongoing complex of thunderstorms in Western Kansas (the glob of bright white clouds!). That is heading our way! So while some of us got to enjoy a little sun before it went down... clouds and rain are moving in once again. Here is a look at the radar:

Click to enlarge

This area of rain is coming in with an upper wave, and while IT specifically might not make it here... showers and thunderstorms will likely be around for the morning commute Monday. The rain will spread from West to East... and linger into the early afternoon in the Metro. It will stay around a little longer for those of you east of the Metro. Then another break Monday late afternoon/evening... before our cold front moves in for Tuesday! That gives us ANOTHER chance of showers and thunderstorms!! Highs both days should be near 70 degrees, give or take a few degrees, due to the amount of cloud cover vs. sun.

I hope you all had a great weekend! Did any of you sign up for the Three Dog Bakery's Dog Night Out? It is coming up on the 22nd... my husband and I will be there with Mags! We'd love to meet you!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:51 PM | Comments (4)

Unsettled!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 59
LOW: 47

A little on the cool side today, wasn't it? It almost felt chilly at times (especially this morning)... but the clouds and rain in the southern part of the viewing area really held temperatures down today. The average high this time of year is 72 degrees... so more than 10 below that number today.

We will continue the cooler weather for Sunday... possibly starting off with some patchy fog. Here is a look at the RUC model, for early Sunday morning:

Click to enlarge

This is a look at clouds, at all levels of the atmosphere. The blue clouds are high clouds... and the green/yellowish clouds are low clouds. This particular model has lots of low clouds/fog here... and with a surface high building in... that means light winds... so we could be socked in for the morning hours.

During the afternoon... once again the clouds look like they will hang around. We may see some peeks of sunshine, but I think highs will be limited to the mid-60s.

Then the rain chances increase again for Monday through Wednesday. It will not rain the entire time... but the chance of showers and thunderstorms is there as a slow moving cold front drapes itself over the area by Tuesday. It should be through on Wednesday, but the chance of a few showers could linger. Here is a look at the NAM with the front over us on Tuesday:

Click to enlarge

We have had quite an interesting year so far:
Warmest January
Driest February
Severe Weather March
3rd Warmest April

So far this May... we have seen more "gray" days than not! Maybe it will be the "Grayist May"?? I am totally kidding... :)

Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 8:21 PM | Comments (4)

DROUGHT INFO

Hello, all!
I will write more on our forecast later... thought you might be interested in this drought/rainfall info. Hope you are enjoying your weekend!
Jamie
*************************************

Statement as of 11:35 am CDT on May 6, 2006

.Next issuance... This drought summary will next be issued on or
about June 4th 2006.

Posted by at 3:21 PM

The weather pattern

Good afternoon everyone,

First of all a reminder. Breezy, Stormy and I will be at the Paw Prints magazine booth Saturday from noon to 2 PM at the Pet Expo. Come on by and say hello. I will also spend a few minutes at the Fuzzy Photos booth. Look for the picture of Windy, Stormy, Breezy and myself and this is to help a couple of fundraisers.

Now, back to the weather. It has now rained 12 out of the last 14 days at KCI airport. Jamie just blogged about the drought conditions, but it is fading fast. We never really went into a serious drought here in Kansas City, but to our south it has been bad, but it has been raining with a lot more likely this weekend and next week. We have to watch a system coming out of the west this weekend for a chance of rain near by on Saturday.

We are in transition into a more energetic pattern, but we are still in the last week or so of the cold part of our cycle. Next week will see a strong cold front blow through us with a brief window opening for some severe weather Tuesday into early Wednesday. We will then cool off for a few days and it could be another week before a serious severe weather situation sets up.

Below is the 500 mb forecast for Tuesday morning. The storm developing is just a fast moving series of shortwaves that may or may not set up nicely for us to have thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. We will have to watch closely how this sets up early next week.

Click to enlarge
Have a great weekend, and hopefully I will see you at the Pet Expo at the American Royal Center at Kemper Arena.

Gary

Posted by at 12:07 PM | Comments (10)

Another Day... Another Raindrop!

Good morning!

Gosh, it wouldn't be right if we didn't have rain around today! :) It has rained 12 out of the last 14 days in our area! And the good news from all of this... it is definitely helping to relieve our drought situation. Here is a look at the latest drought watch:

Click to enlarge

You can see, we are still in a drier area... but when you compare it to just a week before, we have definitely made some improvement (especially in our southern viewing area). Here is what it looked like a week ago:

Click to enlarge

Read Meteorologist Jeff Penner's blog below about the Kansas Wheat Crop... this is definitely good news!

This morning's light rain should come to an end as we head into the afternoon. But once again, expect the clouds to hang around today. The weekend looks cloudy and cool... with a spotty shower not out of the question. Most of the rain looks like it will be to our south... but it's something to watch! Let's see if our rainy streak will continue!

Have a super Friday!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:32 AM | Comments (2)

Winter Wheat Tour

Every year at this time a group of grain traders and anaylsts take one week to tour the winter wheat crop in western Kansas. They just returned today, and said there is enough moisture out there to have a decent crop along as we avoid any hot & windy days. Also, more rain would always be welcome. There is good news on both counts. There is no hot weather in the forecast and there will be a nice rain Friday into Saturday (See the rainfall forecast map below). Even though the news is good for Kansas, the crops in Oklahoma and Texas is pretty well shot. Kansas, though has the bulk of the crop.

Click to Enlarge

Eastern Colorado & much of Kansas look to receive .10" to .50". Some areas of southwest Kansas may receive .75" to 1". Notice, how close the rain comes to Kansas City. Slightly further north on this system, we could have a rainy Saturday. The chance of this is less than 20% Saturday at this time, but we will keep an eye on it. We will have some light rain early Friday.

Posted by at 8:01 PM | Comments (1)

Windy and weather

Click to enlarge (Windy & Breezy)

A few of you have asked about Windy and how she is doing. She is 16 1/2 years old in one week and it is not getting any easier for her. But, she is still enjoying her old age. This is a picture taken yesterday of Breezy and Windy together while I was looking at the new data.

Speaking of new data, this is not an easy forecast and I will blog about it later. Be sure to watch our newscasts and we will try to come up with something special tonight. We will do the LONG RANGE SPOTLIGHT at 6 PM tonight.

You can meet Breezy and Stormy at the Pet Expo this weekend. More details to follow, but I think we will be there between noon and 2 PM. Please come by and tell me you are a blogger. I will have a special autographed picture for you.

Gary

Posted by at 10:40 AM | Comments (9)

Rain today, but where?

High pressure is building in and it would usually be dry. But, it is May and we are in west southwest flow aloft. There is an anchor upper level storm dropping into the western United States. This is sending out disturbances and as each one moves across Kansas the disturbance weakens and loses low level support for rain, but given the time of year it is no surprise and rain is trying to spread in. The more significant rain will likely be south and west. This is what I was concerned about earlier in the week.

Click to enlarge (shows a disturbance moving east near the Kansas/Oklahoma border today and the main upper level trough sending out the disturbances over the western United States)

The weather pattern is going through a transition. And, I will blog about this later today. Remember, I believe it is the same weather pattern just going through about a 60-62 day cycle. This is unique to this year's pattern that set up in late October into early November. Next fall we will get a new pattern and I can't wait as this pattern is really strange. At least it is finally producing interesting weather rather than just teasing us as it did during the winter.

Gary

Posted by at 6:57 AM | Comments (3)

More Rain!

Good afternoon!
We had a nice round of thunderstorms roll through early this morning. Here is a look at rainfall estimates so far today:

Click to enlarge

Notice those higher rainfall amounts east of Kansas City... that prompted some Urban and Small Streams Flood Advisories today. They should expire before 1pm, but still be alert about area waterways running high!

There is another round of rain moving in right now (12:30pm)... you can see it on ESP Below:

Click to see most current image

Not everyone will see a shower with this activity... the best chance will be areas north of the Metro.

Here is an interesting story out of New Zealand:

Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake in Pacific Triggers Tsunami Warning
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 8.0 occurred early today near the Pacific island nation of Tonga, triggering a tsunami warning for New Zealand and Fiji, according to U.S. government agencies.

``An earthquake of this size has the potential to generate a destructive tsunami that can strike coastlines near the epicenter within minutes and more distant coastlines within hours,'' the Hawaii-based tsunami center, run by the U.S. government, said. ``Authorities should take appropriate action in response to this possibility.''

Gary and Jeff will do a blog update later today.
I hope you have a good afternoon!
Jamie

Posted by at 12:21 PM | Comments (4)

The first thunderstorm has developed

Good evening, I am about to go on the air in a few minutes with a weathercast explaining how we will very likely have thunderstorms in the morning. We are in an ideal spot to have at least scattered thunderstorms, and if they are more organized there is a chance of an MCS (Mesoscale convective system). I am not sure yet, but it looks like it will be a bit more organized between 4 and 8 AM. The cold front will sag through during the day with a chance of additional showers or thunderstorms, but the best chance appears to be during the morning on Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 10:06 PM | Comments (7)

Breezy, Windy, & Stormy

Click to enlarge (Breezy and Stormy)

Click to enlarge (Breezy, Windy and Stormy)

It may get a bit stormy, breezy, and windy the next few days, but it is already this morning here in the Forecast Center. The latest trend from the overnight data is for the potential of an MCS tonight. Where it will be is a guess right now. I will try to pin this down and update the blog later today. Then a cold front will pass through Wednesday. There is still uncertainty on where it will stall south of us. And, the evolution of a storm to our west. If the front stalls and the storm to our west is strong enough then we could have rain Thursday and Friday as well with a warm advection event. Advection means transport of something from one region to another. So, the warm air transport into the colder air north of the stalling front very often produces precipitation in the colder air. We will know more later today.

Gary

Posted by at 8:29 AM | Comments (17)

Spring surprise factor AGAIN

Good late morning, or afternoon! Here we go again. I saw it developing yesterday and there is a very good chance we could have a lot of rain near by this week. Notice on the 500 mb map below the hanging back trough into the Rockies and southwest. This will place us in a very interesting surface set up. It is very delicate and quite complex so more on the details later. But, there is a chance of thunderstorms with the cold front Wednesday, then an overrunning warm advection type of event Thursday and Friday. A slight shift here or there and we could get nothing. But, there is a trend (Spring Surprise Factor) to more rain later this week.

Click to enlarge (Valid Thursday evening notice the hanging back trough)

For you severe weather fans. Keep in mind we are cycling through the same pattern. This means the strong surface lows that were generated by the pattern in January and March are likely going to repeat later this week. So, there will very likely be some rather significant severe weather sometime soon. In the mean time I love this cooler rainier weather.

Gary

Posted by at 11:36 AM | Comments (14)

APRIL STATISTICS

Good morning. Did you know that it rained 8 of the last 9 days of April. Hopefully this storm, in the end, left us with a good feeling. It was a nice soaking. Wow! Here are the April Stats:

Highest Temperature: 92 degrees on the 13th

Lowest Temperature: 34 degrees on the 8th

Total Rainfall: 4.15" (Average is 3.38")

Average Temperature: 62.1 (7.7 degrees above average)

In summary, it was dry for the first 2/3's of the month and then the weather pattern suddenly started producing rain.

Our next chance of rain arrives Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. More on this later today.

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (6)