KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Another Record!

We did it again! Today's record high WAS 92 degrees, set back in 1998. But today, we hit 93 degrees, making that the new record high! What a HOT holiday weekend! I hope you got to enjoy the summerlike weather!

The hot weather may be contributing to what is called "Leaf Drop"... perhaps you have noticed it in your neighborhood. The Johnson County Extension Master Gardener's Hotline has had numerous calls regarding trees dropping green leaves. County horticulture agent Dennis Patton, says leaf drop happens when we transition from cool to hot weather in the spring. The trees drop some leaves as it becomes heat and/or drought stressed because it cannot support the number of leaves it has. This year, they say leaf drop is much worse than normal... most likely due to heat SHOCK (ie, it has gotten HOT... FAST). They say the winter drought probably did a little contributing, too.

Speaking of the lack of rain... since March 1st, we are -3.77" below average rainfall. But things are looking up this week! A slow-moving cold front will drift into the region, bringing us the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

We'll start off slow on Memorial Day, with a 30% chance of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Then on Tuesday, with the front basically draped over us, we go up to a 70% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could contain heavy rain, as our precipitable water values are running over one inch! PW is the total number of water vapor in the air. Higher values tell us there is a deep layer of moisture... and thus the potential for some heavy rainfall.

Here is another look at forecast rainfall totals... first the GFS 60-hour, valid at midnight Thursday:

A lot can change between now and then... so let's not get too excited... ;) But it is encouraging to see!

This is what I mean by a lot can change between now and then. This is the 0Z run of the NAM... you can see much less rain here:

That is down to .01-.10" from it's earlier .25-.5" since the chance of rain is there over a couple of days... we will have to wait to see how each day sets up. Stay tuned!

Good Evening, Jamie

Well..it was hot again today for sure and you can feel the humidity values, the stiff winds helped with that, actually had some cumulus building this afternoon in eastern Kansas..good sign! I'm pleased to see the models holding for the cold front to establish showers / thunderstorm chances the next 60 hours. { GFS showing 4-5 " values Neb-Ks border is promising ) Jamie..how do things look long range after Thursday?? we really don't need another heat event and no moisture or our break coming up goes wayside.

Robert

Robert,

Our window of rainfall opportunity is now open for 48 hours. Let's see what happens.

Gary

Jamie - Well, like I said, I will believe whatever happens when I see it. That being said, apparently, the NAM has its problems, overdoing dew-points etc...so why not have a problem with waffling over amounts. We have a juicy airmass in place, and if it takes only a subtle wave over a front to produce storms (IF) then perhaps the models, including the NAM, are all suspect this time of year, one way or the other.

Oh well, we will see, won't we? NW flow historically, with a high energy airmass in place, has produced MCSs - question is, will they go west of us or what? Will the cap be too strong (the NWS said the cap will erode and be minimal by late Tue)? Only what happens will tell the tale.

Dog

Storm Dog,

Already today a cluster of thunderstorms so close and yet so far.

Gary

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Hey Jamie,

Is it gonna rain today? I hope so!
Thanks for your great work on TV!

Tim

Tim,

Jamie is out at a barbeque all worried about the thunderstorms this morning. She is under one of them now.

It looks like most of us will see some rain today, with isolated spots getting a lot.

Thanks for the kind comments. Jamie does a great job!

Gary