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Hello Team:

Gary you said that you were concerned about summer. Are you worried that we might have a cool summer, hot summer, or stormy summer? I hope we at least have a somewhat normal weather pattern (whatever the heck that is)for summer.

SPC has us under a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow and Wednesday. NWS says large hail and winds are the biggest threats at that this point. A lot can happen in 24 hours, and it could be another bust for the KC area.

I have not seen any major outbreaks of severe weather in a while anywhere in the country. I have heard of a few, but nothing like March and April. I just have a feeling like our severe weather is over for the year. Maybe not, but it sure appears that way. I am not saying that I want the strong storms, but we do need the rain.

Have a great day!
Brian - Overland Park

Overland Park Brian,

Thank you for your thoughts. There is a rather significant severe weather threat setting up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Nebraska and Iowa seem most likely to have severe weather. Let's see how it sets up.

Severe weather season is still peaking through June 10th or so, before it fades off into summer. So, it is obviously close to ending, but I still think we will have a moment or two before June 15th.

Gary

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Since Mother Nature won't cooperate with us here in the Midwest, here is something to watch..maybe.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_300l.gif

Possible Tropical Storm near South Carolina..June 2-4 ish..we shall see if the GFS can keep it up as we get closer.

Scott,

There is a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now.

Gary

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Well I got my tornado simulator done!!! And it works great I will be sure to bring it in the next time I go to visit you up at the station. I was wondering about the chance of severe weather tues and wed. Is it looking like a major set up for severe weather or is it just a normal severe weather event. Well lets hope we get some rain.

John,

The conditions are coming together Tuesday, but more likely to our north.

Congratulations on your tornado simulator. Maybe you can come in this summer.

Gary

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Good Afternoon, Gary and Jamie

I hope your feeling better Gary..my allergies took a turn today..whew! I'm in total agreement with you on the Southern California May scenario. I lived in So. Cal for 30 years and can tell you I can count on 1 hand how many times it rained significantly in May. It's traditionally overcast at the coast and quiet weather wise { that's why I love the midwest!! }. I couldn't believe the intensity of the low offshore producing rains this morning there. Actually moderate to heavy rains at times..amazing! And to watch this moisture { almost remindinded me of the late summer monsoon pattern } for the last few days ride east in waves and errupt over the inter-mountain west and simply vanish as it gets here to KC is frustrating. Again this afternoon there is a complex trying to ride south in Kansas. Gary, it seems looking at the satellite though..with this much moisture and energy passing east something has to produce. Now it will be interesting to see if the triggers are there and it it initiates heavy thunderstorms, but as you have stated..this is a highly complex and strange cycling spring. 4" down in late May is not good..lets hope for some precip.

Robert

Robert,

The NAM just came out with some thunderstorms late tonight, but I can't find a reason why at this moment. We will be analyzing.

I remember one big thunderstorm event in May in the '70s across Southern California.

Gary

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Gary - YAWN,YAWN,YAWN...there's always next year as you say, but then again, they say this about the Royals, whose performance the last many years has been abysmal. Hope is always there, but really, I still despair.

Dog

PS This May has been awfully boring, and only May in 1987 in Oklahoma was worse, in my private weather experience, and THAT IS REALLY BAD!!!

Storm Dog,

We may have some exciting weather soon. Be patient.

Gary

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As far as the GOM..yes, there is a something, and it does have some LLC and some mid level, but I think the sheer is still too high at the upper levels. Also, I am not sure I see any convection forming near the "center". I don't think this will evolve..it isn't initialized on the UKMET or GFS as a existing or future low. We shall see...

Scott,

We will know more in a few hours.

Gary

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Hi Weather Team!

Just dropping a note that we still appreciate what you do. I know it might be kind of slow/boring for you now as this is the time of the year that you guys really do what you do.

My lawn and garden wants to ask you if there are any soaking rain patterns in the future. Not sure how far out you can predict but from my armchair meteoroligist position... I'm not seeing any. Thanks!

Hank,

There seems to be a transition going on in the longer range, but I am not getting excited like I did later last week.

Gary

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Boom and Bust.....it looks like Thunderstorms are going to miss us AGAIN! Just looked at the SPC's outlook for SVX wx and KC is BARLEY in the slight risk area. NWS in Pleasant Hill is forecasting T-Storms overnight and tomorrow, but it does not look like a very good chance nor does it look likely to be a severe weather outbreak.

I think we are done with the severe weather for the season. We only have about three weeks left, and unless something major changes in our pattern, we are not going to see any major outbreaks. The worst was March 12th, and it is very unlikely we will see anything like that again this year. This spring is much like our winter. We had one big storm go through and cause a ruckus, and a few smaller ones. However, just like winter, overall this spring has been very inactive.

We might get one more outbreak of severe weather, but I doubt it will be as bad as March 12th (and that is a good thing.) I think our severe weather season happened early this year. Oh well. I just hope we get some rain.

Brian
Overland Park

Brian,

Severe weather season is slowly losing hope. It is amazing how impressive our severe weather season was in March and April and now nothing! I will attempt to explain this later, but it is still the same pattern. There will likely be some more chances, but I doubt anything like our March set ups will be happening again this season.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

Should we anticipate a long hot summer this year or will the cooler temperatures come back?

Justin

Justin,

It will be hot this summer, but what would you consider a long hot summer? I would consider a long hot and dry summer as one that begins in early June and then doesn't let up until September. I don't see this at all. This pattern will bring us a few cold fronts with chances for rain. There will be some rather hot stretches, but overall I am anticipating average rainfall and near average temperatures this summer. But, let's see how we feel in a few weeks.

Gary

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Gary,

Weather channel is calling for 80% chance of Thunderstorms tonight!

Brian,

I am trending in this direction right now. It is not a for sure thing, but after midnight our chance should go way up. Let's see where the thunderstorms form this evening. I should really be able to pin it down at 10 PM.

Gary