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Is there hope for rain?
There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight as the California storm rides up and over our "long term" longwave ridge which is haunting us at this time. As the system turns southeast over the Dakota's tonight a weak cold front, or wind shift line will be approaching and passing through us during the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be triggered tonight north and northwest of us this evening and we will know by later this evening if we have a good chance or if it will miss us. I feel that the chance of thunderstorms is 50% later tonight as they may miss us to the north.
Then we focus on the next 15 days. Summer is approaching and you can see what has happened by looking at the below 500 mb flow, that I tried to paint the flow on. This is the 168 hour forecast from the 06z run of the GFS. So, one week from now. It shows a very well defined split flow developing and possibly strengthening. With one branch of the jet stream well to the north in Canada and a southern branch over the western United States. The heights have risen over the eastern third of the nation and that is actually a weak upper low over the southeast. But, there is very weak flow over the eastern half of the nation showing that summer is almost here.
If we are to have a long wet stretch it may very well come from the evolution of this split flow. If we can get a cold front down here from the northern branch then there is a high likelyhood that we could have quite a few days with thunderstorms around. This is what we will be watching closely over the next 10 days to see if this will set up. This still doesn't bring us a lot of flow for severe weather, but eventually there could be enough before the season comes to a close.
Click to enlarge (168 hour valid 1 AM next Monday night)
This is still the same pattern, weakening and shifting northward. As we continue to cycle through this pattern (around 60 days or so) we should have cold fronts generated by the northern branch and they will make it down to our region. If we can get a front to stall in the area then it will get wet. There are a few if's though, so let's see how this whole thing evolves. The bottom line though is that severe weather season had a booming beginning and a sudden end this year. But, will there be a finale worthy of some excitement?
Have a great day! And, think positively for a thunderstorm late tonight.
New data just in! The NAM at 3:08 PM does bring us some nice lifting after midnight. I think we will up our chance of thunderstorms to at least 70% late tonight.
Gary
Posted by at May 23, 2006 10:45 AM
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Gary - I will hope against hope, but reading the NWS discussion this AM, I smell yet another duffill (ie missing out). One among many of this year. We can only hope that miraculously, July turns the weather pattern turtle, and proves wet and cooler. Still, that is probably the dream of a dolt.
Anyway, cheers,
Dog
Storm Dog,
Yes, it is not looking good, again!
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at May 23, 2006 11:41 AM
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Alas, I have allowed this to pass without judgement..Mother Nature has given up on us. I will begin to shift focus further south in the tropics..but will perk up again near the beginning of the new GRC. Gary, any idea when you will have something to share regarding your research paper?
Scott,
I am taking Thursday and Friday off so I will have an opportunity to pour over all of the data and make some conclusions on this season. Let me see if I find anything different than what we have been saying all along.
Don't give up on this season yet, even though it doesn't look so great right now.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 23, 2006 12:46 PM
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You guys always get blamed for the weather all the time. It didn't rain, it did rain. So I would like to thank you on the memorial day weekend of no rain. My camping trip will be wonderful. :-)
Keri
Keri,
Unless things change. Just kidding. It still looks dry but pay close attention because anything can happen 5 days out.
Gary
Posted by: Keri Worley at May 23, 2006 1:17 PM
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Hello. I'm new here. Moved from Sacramento, California last year in late June. Live in Olathe.
I had the idea today at looking at the blog for May 2005 to see if there were any similarities with this year. I noticed several entries mentioning a long dry spell, hopes for rain or t-storms or anything. For most of May it was dry and boring. Then in early June, wammo! Rain, t-storms, and even severe weather events. Is it still possible the same thing could happen this year? Seems like last May and this May are very much alike. Maybe last June and this June will be also?
Kris Wells
Kris,
Great idea! Last June was a very exciting change of events. I see some potential again this year, but the weather pattern is very different so let's see what happens.
Gary
Posted by: Kris Wells at May 23, 2006 1:27 PM
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With the exception of just enough rain to wet the pavement, Warrensburg seems to have completely dried out. This morning, I watched a very small complex of rain and storms generate over the Johnson/Petis county line, just missing us to the east. I'm afraid I have to agree with Storm Dog and say it looks as though we're looking at another dry summer, missing out on most of the good moisture-laden storms (I'm sure we'll have systems move through, but like this winter, they will probably be moisture starved). While I won't have to mow as much this year, I would rather have the rain.
Mike,
Last summer was not very dry. We had quite a bit of rain through June and then again in August. And, remember the summer a couple of years ago that ended with 11 inches of rain in two days at the end of August. So, be patient. Summer often provides us with a chance of rain every week.
Gary
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at May 23, 2006 2:36 PM
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Good Afternoon, Gary
Well..uplifting news from the afternoon NAM on a complex moving through early Wednesday morning!! I was watching a trailing line of showers this morning from Grand Island Neb - Northern Oklahoma marching through central Kansas, and I really thought that it would finally time out and build into a thunderstorm line this afternoon { the atmosphere today sure feels primed and sure enough again, central Missouri got some storms } Gary..question for you? we're we capped here in KC? not the right lift? moisture flow from the gulf.. ect?? to watch that line die out with such an intense storm to the north was extremely frustrating. This perticular storm hit the tract you had mentioned..ejecting rapidly out of California and northest into the Dakota's..now lets see if the dynamics are set up to move a line through North Eastern Kansas late tonight and drop. I'm really begining to wonder watching that intense storm being so close and lines of thunderstorms just dying on the vine lately. fingers crossed!!
Robert
Robert,
A cap moved over us this morning and is now eroding away and moving out. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed and it will be very interesting to see how this develops. I think we will at least have something around 4 or 5 AM.
Gary
Posted by: SkyMan at May 23, 2006 3:40 PM
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What does this pattern do for Hurricanes hitting the Gulf coast in Louisiana or Texas and moving north east across the central plains? Does it draw the gulf moisture closer or further away from KC?
Dwight,
This pattern has very little impact on hurricane season. The pattern will be weakening as we move into July, and when hurricane season picks up in August and September a new pattern is evolving.
Also, watch the path of the hurricanes, they seem to have somewhat of a cycle and some consistancy unique to each season as well.
Gary
Posted by: Dwight at May 23, 2006 4:03 PM
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Gary - At least dew-points are flirting with 70F - perhaps that is the one encouraging sign for late tonight. Still, we shall wait and see, and...probably...SIGH.
Dog
Storm Dog,
The thunderstorms are growing, but I haven't developed that feeling yet that we will be hit.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at May 23, 2006 4:52 PM
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Hello weather team,
Do you expect any thunderstorms up towards Leavenworth tonight? Severe?
Ben,
Due to the timing of the thunderstorms the risk of severe thunderstorms is slim. But, there is a good chance of thunderstorms by 3 or 4 AM in Leavenworth.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 23, 2006 5:19 PM
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Gary,
I see some thunderstorms forming out to the soutwest near the NE, KS border. Is there any way that they might hold together and stay on a path to hit Overland Park.
Thanks
Jeff,
Right now, it looks like they will make it here.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at May 23, 2006 6:32 PM
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Gary, as passionate as I am about the midwest and storm tracking, I am very interested in tropical development of tropical storms. Your statement in the response above [shown below] has me very intrigued
"Also, watch the path of the hurricanes, they seem to have somewhat of a cycle and some consistancy unique to each season as well"
Is this related to the GRC, or are there other facets that contribute to your statement such as the location of the Bermuda High, Trade winds, or other features such as residual or persistant trough locations? Let me know your thoughts.....
Scott,
I don't have much time tonight. It is more likely a predominant pattern that becomes established by early August. I have some ideas, but I haven't studied it much at all.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 23, 2006 9:40 PM
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Gary,
So after this line splits and misses the Metro again, can you explain what is meant by teleconnections and how they play a part in forecasting?
Teleconnections are a relation to a predominant anomaly and how the weather pattern should react to it. So, if there is a big upper high forming over the north Pacific, for example, then teleconnections may say that there should be a big trough in the southwest U.S, and if the models aren't showing it, then this is something to look for.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at May 23, 2006 9:49 PM
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I am currently up here in the panhandle of Nebraska. . .just wondering what the weather has in store for us in the upcoming week. We have seen little to NO rain here in the past few weeks! We need something besides 90 degree weather.
Kim
Kim,
It looks hot and dry.
Gary
Posted by: Kim at May 23, 2006 10:21 PM
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Another miss. This time it was not even close to KC. The hot, dry weather is going to make our corn roll and our early beans wilt, not to mention the wheat we planted. This pattern needs to turn wet or a lot of people are going to be hurting this summer. Are there any chances of rain showing up in the next 10 days???
Kinley (looking out his window at the lightning)
Kinley,
Thunderstorms went through parts of the city around 4 AM, then lined up just east of us. Well, we got something. There are chances showing up, but I am not even going to talk about it right now.
Gary
Posted by: kinley at May 24, 2006 12:02 AM
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Gary,
This morning Grain Valley got .40 from a nice thundershower. My yard is thankful and saves me a few days without watering.
Thanks for you non stop dedication.
Jeff
JEFF:
Thanks for the report! We are glad to hear you got pretty good thunderstorm... as some places were not that lucky.
Jamie
Posted by: Jeff at May 24, 2006 8:22 AM
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