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The trend continues! Good evening everyone,
I am now getting somewhat excited. There has been a trend in the computer models to go back into the more progressive flow across the United States. This northwest flow is about to end as a series of disturbances breaks into the western states. This has to provide some good chances for rain and thunderstorms as well as a few severe weather set ups during the next 20 days. Since we are in transition, the computer models are not handling this well at this time. So, be patient. I am now expecting a good 3 inches of rain or perhaps 5 inches of rain or more in the next 20 days.
It almost begins this weekend, but moisture is lacking at this time. A front may stall in the area so watch out......each day there is actually a slight chance of something interesting developing and moving in. It may be tough to produce widespread rain, but once it begins watch out. So, be patient for another 10 days as this transition takes place.
Click to enlarge
Above, you can see the 500 mb flow at 150 hours. This is the GFS forecast from the 18z run. This shows the storm that moved into the Rockies and then turned southeast right over us. And, then notice the trough sagging into the northwest states. This is still a messed up pattern and I can't wait until next fall when we get a new one, but I expect some interesting set ups during the next three weeks.
Gary
Posted by at May 18, 2006 5:52 PM
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Hey weather team,
This i can handle.. the last 3 years i have worked 2nd shift, and every time sever weather has hit i've been at work. This year i get moved to Day shift starting next week for the summer..I might get to actually chase this year!
Now a weather pattern question.
You said we were in a 60-62 day cycle. you also said that the cycle get weaker and weaker into the summer until it falls apart... would this be the reason why it seems the cooler part of the cycle lasted longer, and why its been a bit longer that 62 days for a sever outbeak like the one on marach 12? Because of the cycle getting weaker? Or did i just miss it, and it hit somewhere eles? Just wondering.
Mike Smith
Mike,
The March 12th system did repeat but went by disorganized and produced some severe weather in Texas. The next part of the pattern has potential, but we are still basically in a 60-62 day cycle give or take a few days. You should get a couple of good chases in.
Gary
Posted by: Mike Smith at May 18, 2006 6:58 PM
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Gary - Let us hope. Apparently what we need is deeper moisture, in part, to break whatever cap will exist. This time of year, unless the cap is very weak, don't we need more the 55-60F dew-points to really fuel stuff. Will we get that? Will the Gulf open up, finally?
Later,
Dog
Dog,
The dewpoints should get out of control within the next 5 days. And, we must have over 60 dewpoints to really fuel any potential complex of thunderstorms at this time of the year. I think we will have close to 70 degree dewpoints by early next week.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at May 18, 2006 8:08 PM
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Okay, now that it is closer, per se, how is the 26th thru Memorial Day looking for my camping trip. I don't mind having one on/off thunderstorm day, but is the whole weekend gonna be a washout, or will I have sunny skies and excellent weather thru out? Keep up the good work Gary and team. You guys are awesome, and never get rid of the excitement for the storm.
Keri,
It is still early and the pattern is changing, but it doesn't look like a wash out right now.
Gary
Posted by: Keri Worley at May 18, 2006 9:04 PM
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Quick question..is it the 850mb [lower] or 300mb [higher] level winds that bring up moisture? Seems it would be the lower, right?
SCOTT:
Technically, moisture can increase in all levels of the atmosphere. But at higher levels (300mb), temps are low... and this cold air isn't able to support much moisture. It's strong SURFACE winds or LLJs that we look at for low level moisture transport.
Jamie
Posted by: Scott at May 19, 2006 9:05 AM
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What level at the atmosphere do you typically find LLJs? 850mb? I am trying to determine the models that would help identify and track these....
Thanks..
SCOTT:
Yes!
Jamie
Posted by: Scott at May 19, 2006 1:16 PM
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Thank you!
Posted by: Scott at May 19, 2006 2:34 PM
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