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Holiday Weekend & Later Rain Chances
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 88
LOW: 61
We are heading into a great holiday weekend! Great for all the outdoor activities... if you are heading to the lake or to the pool, it will be nice and HOT for you. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs in the lower 90s. (see yesterday's blog entry on record vs. forecast highs for the weekend).
If you have picnic or BBQ plans... yes it will be a little on the warm side, but at least it will be DRY. Also, the winds will pick up! South winds will be coming in at 10-20 mph... gusting to 30mph... and the breeze will feel good, bringing you a little releif from the heat! You can see the surface winds picking up on the NAM below, valid for Saturday afternoon:
Click to enlarge
The dry weather will continue into the middle part of the week... and then we do start to see the CHANCE of RAIN. You can see the forecasted rainfall totals on the GFS. This is 60-hour rainfall, ending Wednesday at midnight:
Click to enlarge
I am sure you are all hoping for that outcome... but right now it is only a 30% chance, as confidence is not that high. We'll see how things evolve!
In other news... earlier this week, NOAA issued its 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Forecast! It is expected to be another active season... here are their forecasted numbers vs. average numbers:
As you can see, last year was a record year for tropical weather. Not only did we have a record-high 28 storms... but a record FOUR major hurricanes hit the United States. A hurricane is considered major if it is a Category 3 storm or greater.
Here is NOAA's graphic on what will help contribute to an active 2006:
Click to enlarge
With the lack of El Nino/La Nina... there should be warmer ocean waters... less wind shear... and favorable mid-level and surface winds. Hurricane season, by the way, starts next week!
Now for some fun stuff... today we took Mags over to Keith King's house so she could play with his dogs--- Murphy and Baily. Here are some pictures of them today:
I think Murphy has the biggest tongue I have ever seen!
Mags and Murphy had Baily on the run!
Mags and Murphy take a break from playing!
I hope you all have a wonderful and safe holiday weekend! I will be here throughout... we are having a little weekend-crew pot luck on Sunday. I will try to take some pictures of that, too!
Jamie
Posted by at May 26, 2006 2:25 PM
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Good Afternoon, Jamie
great photos, thank you Wishing you, Gary, Jeff and everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday. I'm happy to see that the GFS is turning wetter the next coming week, Candadian Provinces south through the Central Plains...we'll see. We're depending on a wet June now here in Eastern Kansas especially. Let's also keep our fingers crossed with the mid 90's and some energy and instabilty around for some pop-up thundershowers this weekend but!!! let it happen NOT on anyones plans..just give up some needed rain..lol..tall order!!
=)
Robert
HEY, ROBERT!
Thanks for posting such nice comments... we wish you a wonderful holiday weekend, too! The chance of thunderstorms just isn't there for this weekend, as we will have a pretty good CAP in place. But next week could be a different story! We'll see how it sets up...
Jamie
Posted by: SkyMan at May 26, 2006 4:26 PM
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Jamie - Love those doglets!!! As to the GFS, it has a tiny wave that develops and moves through in WSW flow, as the front sags through us. Unfortunately, WSW flow this time of year usually brings with it a marked capping inversion off of the Mexican Plateau and SW U.S., so I'm not sure about the precip the GFS paints.
Later,
Dog
DOG:
As usual... we'll have to wait and see on the rain chances this week.
Those dogs sure have fun together! :)
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at May 26, 2006 8:35 PM
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Hi weather team,
Do you expect the t-storms in north central Kansas to hold together and make it here? Leavenworth?
BEN:
These thunderstorms will likely miss us to the North.
Jamie
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 26, 2006 9:22 PM
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Jamie I've been watching a batch of thunderstorms in northern kansas this evening is there any chance they could form into an mcs and move southeast toward us overnite and be a surprise that would be nice.
JEREMY:
It is something to watch... BUT they will most likely stay north of KC. It could clip the northern viewing area... up towards St. Joseph, though.
Jamie
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at May 26, 2006 9:39 PM
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Looks like the complex is developing a bit to the south end..I think we may get clipped in the metro..but like you say..more to the north. As far as the tropical outlook..its interesting to see that this outlook is actually higher than last years at this time. [if I remember right]. The SSTs are not quite as warm, but due to the record temps in Jan and April, the Gulf and Car has warmed up nicely. I also notice that the sheer is a bit lower than normal already! I am not sure about a June storm, but likely one or two July storms. [for the Atlantic] It looks like the Pacific may get something going here pretty quick down south of Baja. There is an Invest for it already. Sorry to ramble on about the tropics...I seem to understand it a bit better than the funky patterns we get here..LOL
SCOTT:
Boy, was it close with those thunderstorms last night! At about midnight, looking at the radar... I was second-guessing my forecast. But it proved right... and the thunderstorms stayed north. There was a report of thunder at KCI, but no measurable rainfall.
I may have the opportunity to chat with a hurricane expert next week via satellite... if we can get it booked. I will post the results of that interview if it works out!
Jamie
Posted by: Scott at May 26, 2006 11:05 PM
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What exactly does MCS mean? I think I've heard you call it a Mesoscale, but what does that mean? Thanks for taking the time to respond to viewers' comments and questions...
ANA:
An MCS is a Mesoscale Convective System. Mesoscale basically is a SIZE related term. In meteorology, we deal with the following:
Synoptic Scale: LARGE scale... entire storm systems.
Mesoscale: MEDIUM scale... 50 to several hundred miles in size.
Storm Scale: SMALL scale... individual thunderstorms.
Another way to say "MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM" is......
"MEDIUM-SIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX".
Hope that answers your question!
Jamie
Posted by: Ana Rudner at May 27, 2006 12:31 AM
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