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Rain showing up or just fantasy?
The last two runs of the GFS have shown some interesting changes. Below you can see the GFS forecast from the 18z run. This is the 60 hour precipitation forecast for late next week. It may be fantasy so don't get excited yet. A block is forming over eastern Canada and this should allow the jet stream to plow into the western United States and affect our weather soon.

Click to enlarge
Gary
Posted by at May 17, 2006 6:13 PM
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Rain would be nice... along with some thunderstoms! I won't get my hopes up until next week.
Mike Smith
Mike,
Keep your expectations low for a few more days.
Gary
Posted by: Mike Smith at May 17, 2006 6:29 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
When does tornado season end in this area? Do you see a chance of any storms in the near future?
Tornado season usually ends suddenly around June 15th. So, we still have time.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at May 17, 2006 6:51 PM
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Thank you for your in depth expectations of the next few months. This blog is very useful and much appreciated. Even on boring dry days I find your info very interesting.
Thanks again for all your hard work!
Joe
Thanks Joe,
I wish I could convince my boss that even on boring dry days that weather is still very important. Something is always going on and right now the weather pattern is very close to getting very exciting. Even by this weekend something may be changing, but certainly next week has a lot of potential for thunderstorms and even severe weather. We need one more day to see if these trends continue.
Gary
Posted by: joe at May 17, 2006 10:18 PM
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Hi Gary and team:
So the up and down pattern goes on? :-) We are now back in the warm part of the pattern. I see that it may approach 90 on Saturday. Is that a record for this time of a year?
You said severe weather ends around June 15th? I thought it would at least go until Sept. I know that we can still get storms after the 15th, but from what you say they are less likely to be severe.
Is it possible that we just had our severe weather season early this year in March and April instead of May and June? We will have to wait and see about next week!
Brian
BRIAN:
The temperatures this weekend will all depend on where the front is! Right now, we have 90 for Saturday... which would tie the record high for that day. It was previously set back in 1970... BUT, like I said, we will have to see where the front is!! Gary will have an update on the news tonight at 5, 6 and 10pm.
Jamie
Posted by: Brian at May 18, 2006 7:51 AM
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Gary or Jamie,
I am so bored with this weather!!! Although I have been getting alot of golf in lately. Don't get me wrong, I love the nice weather but it would sure be nice to throw some storms into the mix. So does next week look preety good for rain? I would sure love to see some severe weather. It's driving me crazy. Thanks
Ryan
Ryan,
We will have some thunderstorms soon.
Gary
Posted by: ryan at May 18, 2006 9:43 AM
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Gary - Geez, hope so, but I won't hold my breath. I agree with Ryan, this pattern is a YAWN. Still, you have been right with this pattern, and one would expect one more bout of activity sometime in the next 3-4 weeks at least - after that? I shudder to think!!!
BTW, I think Mr GFS is smoking crack!!!
Later,
Dog
Storm Dog,
I just did a new entry. I am optimistic, but eventually it will be exciting, at least as exciting as this pattern can make it.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at May 18, 2006 5:47 PM
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